Are some people just lucky?

[dav4463]

I'm watching a race tonight. It is won by horse that is coming off a layoff of over a year. The second place horse was somewhat logical. The third place horse was coming back at a level below a recent claim and looked to be in poor form.

As I am throwing my losing ticket away, the guy standing by me says, "well, I got the trifecta, the win, and the exacta". So I asked him how he decided to play a horse that hasn't raced in over a year. He said he didn't even notice that.....is that what that double line means? As for the other horses, he just said he picked the jockeys that he thought were due to hit.

He cashes a trifecta for nearly $600 plus an exacta and a win.

I studied the race and got nothing. This guy didn't know what he was doing and made big money!

[menifee]

I went to the Saratoga with my mother the past two days. She does not play the horses, I watch replays, study the form, look at formulator, etc. She had a better two days than I did. I think over a longer period of time, I would have a better ROI. The reality is that if you stick to your handicapping and that guy keeps failing to notice horses coming off long layoffs, you will do better in the long run.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[Burls]

This reminds me of the day I went to the track last year with my spouse and her friend. I was doing my best to make well thought out picks while the friend was making picks on the basis of the trainer having the same last name as her maiden name. By the time we left my spouse and her friend were well ahead while I didn't cash a single ticket. I think I did a commendable job of holding it in. It's a good thing they didn't start offering me handicapping tips. That would have been too much. :lol: :lol:

[Overlay]

This reminds me of the day I went to the track last year with my spouse and her friend. I was doing my best to make well thought out picks while the friend was making picks on the basis of the trainer having the same last name as her maiden name. By the time we left my spouse and her friend were well ahead while I didn't cash a single ticket. I think I did a commendable job of holding it in. It's a good thing they didn't start offering me handicapping tips. That would have been too much. :lol: :lol:

The former Miss Pletcher, eh?

[JustRalph]

Sitting in the Keeneland Simulcast a table of four ladies starts screaming like crazy because they got the exacta and the tri with a 49-1 shot on top.

They jump up and start dancing and shit when it comes back over 4k or something like that. They had it a couple of times if I heard them right. They cash and pack up and leave. As they are leaving I hear one say "which mall are we going to?" I was afraid to ask them how they had the horse.........but I did hear one talking "I knew the four horse would win eventually" :bang: :bang: :bang:

[LottaKash]

I am very Happy for those lucky ones, while they are continuallly feed the Kitty upon each subsequent visit to the track, as they anxiously await until next year when they will win again, after being layed off for a year.........

best,

[joelouis]

I'm watching a race tonight. It is won by horse that is coming off a layoff of over a year. The second place horse was somewhat logical. The third place horse was coming back at a level below a recent claim and looked to be in poor form.

As I am throwing my losing ticket away, the guy standing by me says, "well, I got the trifecta, the win, and the exacta". So I asked him how he decided to play a horse that hasn't raced in over a year. He said he didn't even notice that.....is that what that double line means? As for the other horses, he just said he picked the jockeys that he thought were due to hit.

He cashes a trifecta for nearly $600 plus an exacta and a win.

I studied the race and got nothing. This guy didn't know what he was doing and made big money!

I had a friend of mine that bet blind like that. He did not go everyday or for that matter every weekend, but when he did go with me and my friends he would have the uncanny knack of always winning about 2,000. Betting names and his favorite numbers yes some people are lucky like that, in fact last week I believe his wife and him played a horse called Slambino at Saratogo she played 2 dollar exactas 14 to all and hit a 2dollar exacta for $2,500 stones. They dont handicapp or look at odds if they like the name they bet it. simple as that. Throw the forum away and play names, good as any.

[raybo]

Playing the ponies is much like no-limit poker, in one respect at least. In no-limit poker a novice may beat professionals in the short term, simply by getting the cards, but over time the pros will wear him out.

[ranchwest]

Okay, I'm going to step outside the box a little....

I think part of this is that we forget how important ticket construciton is. If you don't ever have a 40/1 on your ticket, you'll never have a winning ticket with a 40/1 on it.

Manager Johnny Oates said (and I'm pretty sure that he wasn't the first to use the line), "Luck is when preparation and opportunity meet."

Yes, some people are just plain lucky. However, a lot of people make their luck, even though some of them don't even understand that they did.

[classhandicapper]

Yes, people can get lucky.

In today's 6th race at Saratoga I liked Amanwella. I was looking to use the horse in some exactas and noticed Devotee. Devotee is trained by Thomas Albertrani who I know has a pretty good overall record with FTS - even at long prices. So I threw the horse in my exactas. After I made the bet, I decided to check Albertrani's record a little more carefully. I noticed that he's actually much better with older FTS and not particularly good with 2YOs. It was too late to pull the bet and it wasn't very big anyway, but I hit the exacta because of what I would call partial knowledge. I think that was pretty lucky because had I done more thorough research before I placed the bet, I might not have included the horse.

Of course for every one of these, I probably have a few stories about things I missed by being too hasty that cost me money. But I think individual very large tickets or even extended periods of luck can certainly impact results for a very long time.

[LottaKash]

Being a very serious player at the Harness, often on some nights, when my tracks have ended around 11pm, I will play some $2 bets on the Quarter-Horses at Los Alamitos.......

It is amazing how you can catch some nice prices on Maiden 1/4's running at 300-350 yards.....I had one the recently that paid $42 and several like 28's and change.....

Great entertainment, and good exciting-bang-for the buck.......just betting names.....

best,

[theiman]

I'm watching a race tonight. It is won by horse that is coming off a layoff of over a year. The second place horse was somewhat logical. The third place horse was coming back at a level below a recent claim and looked to be in poor form.

As I am throwing my losing ticket away, the guy standing by me says, "well, I got the trifecta, the win, and the exacta". So I asked him how he decided to play a horse that hasn't raced in over a year. He said he didn't even notice that.....is that what that double line means? As for the other horses, he just said he picked the jockeys that he thought were due to hit.

He cashes a trifecta for nearly $600 plus an exacta and a win.

I studied the race and got nothing. This guy didn't know what he was doing and made big money!

Forget why he got lucky without knowing it and allow yourself to think outside the box when handicapping.

Horses off a year layoff can often be great overlays.
Remember, the T-Bred breed is a lot more fragile than in the past. For someone to bring a horse back from that long a layoff two things must be remembered. 1)The people bringing the horse back have some sort of confidence that they can. 2)Because of the injury or sickness there is no guarentee the horse can last long when they do bring him back.
Thus, recouping as much as you can "on the first start back" is now a handicapping angle that is employed by me a lot more than in the past. Trainers cant say"we will give him a start to get him tight and go with him the 2nd start" Now its lets go with him the first start and get what we can, in purse and cashings, as the leg might not hold for more than a start or two.
This logic for me is more common with maiden and claimers than with classier horses, but I consider every situation, trainer, class returning in, distance, etc.

[Overlay]

Forget why he got lucky without knowing it and allow yourself to think outside the box when handicapping.

Horses off a year layoff can often be great overlays.
Remember, the T-Bred breed is a lot more fragile than in the past. For someone to bring a horse back from that long a layoff two things must be remembered. 1)The people bringing the horse back have some sort of confidence that they can. 2)Because of the injury or sickness there is no guarentee the horse can last long when they do bring him back.
Thus, recouping as much as you can "on the first start back" is now a handicapping angle that is employed by me a lot more than in the past. Trainers cant say"we will give him a start to get him tight and go with him the 2nd start" Now its lets go with him the first start and get what we can, in purse and cashings, as the leg might not hold for more than a start or two.
This logic for me is more common with maiden and claimers than with classier horses, but I consider every situation, trainer, class returning in, distance, etc.

Depending on what the horse's odds were, it may not have been an automatic toss from a betting standpoint. The long layoff would have to be counted against it, but considered from a probability standpoint as just one of the factors contributing to the horse's overall winning chances, there may have been other aspects of its record unrelated to recent activity that would have made the horse worth a look at long-enough odds. (Then, again, it may have been one of those races that you have to toss in the "stuff happens" pile (as Dick Mitchell used to refer to it) of unexplainable results, and move on.)

[Suppositionist]

I wouldn’t necessarily throw a horse out just because it was coming off a year layoff. I liken coming off a long layoff to maidens winning at first asking. It doesn’t happen that often but it’s not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination. Long layoff horses would actually have a little better likelyhood of winning off the layoff than the first starter because they at least have some experience. Then too, some trainers are more likely to send their horses ready for a top effort right off the shelf, than others. Look for good workout patterns for a clue. One way speed types also have a higher likelihood of winning off the layoff if for no other reason than they’ll likely be in good position early and if no one else fires they may luck into an easy win. Also, often times horses coming off a long layoff will be dropped in class, this is often seen as a indication that the horse isn’t what it once was, that is probably the case eighty percent of the time but sometimes a savvy trainer will be just "stealing" a purse…and some of the pools.

I don’t sweat other folks getting lucky because I know plenty of the cashing I have done over the years has involved a certain amount of luck, luck being defined as things that happen beyond your control. By that definition there is quite a bit of luck in just about every winning ticket. Heck, I once had a clerk give me the wrong horse on the second half of a five dollar double ticket. I noticed the mistake after the fist horse had won and I was pissed but there was nothing I could do at that point. The mistake horse came in for a four-hundred dollar plus double. Oddly I felt just as good as if I had picked it myself. My most remarkable “winning streak” ever came a little over twenty years ago. I had the midas touch for about six weeks. Looking back, I realize that that winning streak was a combination of semi good handicapping and plain old dumb luck, probably a lot more dumb luck than good handicapping. I’m a much better handicapper today and I seriously doubt I would have made a lot of the bets I cashed during that winning streak if I were to handicap and bet those same races today. Sometimes its just better to be lucky than good.

Sometimes I think it’s better to think about this game, and winning, as not you handicapping the winner(s) but as the horses running to your style of handicapping, and everyone’s style of handicapping is good at some point (the broke clock analogy). The trick is to develop a style of handicapping that the horses run back to often, not in rare streaks.

S

[Zman179]

Listen, if not one, but TWO blind men can hit the Pick Six, then anything in this game is up for grabs.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2000/May/25/Retired-blind-widower-wins-big-pick-six.aspx

http://www.horseraceinsider.com/blog.php/west-coast-wash/comments/08192008-check-list-for-petaluma-tony/#comments

[judd]

years ago i went to track and looked at board--boxed the 3 longest shots
on board for a $1.00 tri-box--hit for $5,000 i won $2500 !!!!!!

[sally]

I think Petaluma Tony's lifetime of experience studying trainer-owner-jockey combos and bloodlines brought him to that moment of winning the pick six-- "Chance favors the prepared mind" - Louis Pasteur

Indeed.

[46zilzal]

Luck is the end product of skill, discipline and hard work....It merely looks like luck to the un-enlightened.

[Zman179]

Luck is the end product of skill, discipline and hard work....It merely looks like luck to the un-enlightened.

Aw, gimme a break with that enlightenment crap. What skill, discipline, or hard work is there in picking names or numbers?!?

[46zilzal]

Aw, gimme a break with that enlightenment crap. What skill, discipline, or hard work is there in picking names or numbers?!?
Doing it well for an extended period of time requires the areas of expertise I mentioned. ANYONE can have a short term spree.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Don't know what type of race this was but in certain restricted races layoffs win an aberrantly larger number of races than in other types.

A few seasons ago after trying to iron out the inconsistencies of different race restrictions on the Ohio circuit I decided to go one step further than simply making a class profile of winners.I made a profile of what I dubbed "Deficient Form Winners".I took all the horses from each sub-genre of races who I thought had deficient form ie-hadn't raced in 28 or more days,not up close at 2nd call,inferior BSF,no workouts etc etc.

Layoff horses seem to win N1Y(2 years),N2y(2 years),N3Y(2 years) a lot(and rightly so)but horses that were in N1Y(6 mos or 1 year) almost never won 1st back,but the 2nd start off layoffs won a ton.And most of them had no form.Shippers,dropping off a layoff,with solid trainer-jockey stats won a lot of these races.I hardly ever play these races because they are either won by favorites or have some obscure horse bust me out,but this is one angle where I have found that obscure horse.Try it.Make Deficient form profiles,you'll be surprised how much it enhances your understanding of certain race restrictions than basic class profiles.

[Pace Cap'n]

ANYONE can have a short term spree.

And when that happens it is generally referred to as LUCK.

[Charlie D]

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4161/is_20070204/ai_n17228206




Agnes had already netted last week's tote Scoop6 purse of pounds 410,332 for just a pounds 2 stake and when Ruby Walsh powered Taranis home by half a length she boosted the winnings to pounds 688,620. She said: "I didn't dare watch the race and when I heard that Taranis was winning I kept thinking 'What am I going to do with all this money'," said a breathless Agnes.

So what's the secret of Agnes's success? "I don't study the form, I just pick the names that I like and I went for Taranis because he was number 13 and I was born on the 13th!

[rufus999]

Luck happens to other people. I simply take advantage of a fortunate set of circumstances.

rufus:9::9::9:

afterthought... Here's a bad luck story that happened at a track not so long ago... This guy with a rep for losing all the time is just finishing up watching another of his bets go south when an announcment comes over the P.A. sytem about a car with Lic.No. so and so being vandalized in the parking lot. Quickly realizing its his car he rushes out to the parking lot only to get mugged by a second group of guys. Nevertheless, he composes himself long enough to go back inside the track and lose the last three races.
I think it was at Suffolk Downs or Finger Lakes... not sure.