The Woodward

[Stevie Belmont]

Some are making this to be a walkover. I love Curlin, but Divine Park is no slouch. I actually think it could be a decent race.

[MBourassa]

i looked at the pp's divine park is a nice one but the longest he has gone is a mile and 70 yards, i beilive curlin is going to get is going to be sitting in the garden spot and prolly going to be the first won to jump on the leaders, i think this might set up just like the stephen foster. but we will have to see. would have loved to see evening attire run vs curlin what a sight that would have been.

[BeatTheChalk]

Some are making this to be a walkover. I love Curlin, but Divine Park is no slouch. I actually think it could be a decent race.

I don't get around much anymore .. But Devine Park was the only name
I recognized. :bang: :rolleyes: :cool:

[toetoe]

Don't disclude a decent frontrunner at Saratoga. Sometimes it's the graveyard of closers. That said, Curlin can be hustled a bit early and still fire.

[Robert Fischer]

will be a good race.

Wanderin Boy puts a ton of pressure on Divine Park, Looseleaf, and Past the Point.

[BombsAway Bob]

Should a BRIDGEJUMPER ALERT be Issued, or is the field too big??

[Robert Fischer]

"Almost Time for Wapner"

[juanepstein]

alan always has to put the scrub on divine on the turn to get him movin again. he always seems to respond and still wins but curlin might have the momentum on him when they hit the turn today.

[Robert Fischer]

alan always has to put the scrub on divine on the turn to get him movin again. he always seems to respond and still wins but curlin might have the momentum on him when they hit the turn today.


Juan - wager for fun/bragging rights? My Wanderin Boy vs. your Divine Park ?

[Tee]

I'll guess that Wanderin Boy runs a good one today.

[juanepstein]

Juan - wager for fun/bragging rights? My Wanderin Boy vs. your Divine Park ?

my divine park,lol.

they both look very impressive on the track right now.

7 horses going 1 1/8- sure you got it- my divine against your wanderin boy.

[Robert Fischer]

Curlin is the champ

[juanepstein]

Juan - wager for fun/bragging rights? My Wanderin Boy vs. your Divine Park ?

what do i owe ya. lol

divine didnt want to run today at all.

[Tom]

Not a very impressive victory, though. Lots of whipping and no surge past the tiring leader.

[Robert Fischer]

what do i owe ya. lol

divine didnt want to run today at all.

I didn't expect Past the Point to get sent on that fast pace - hey it was fun to watch

[juanepstein]

I didn't expect Past the Point to get sent on that fast pace - hey it was fun to watch

total watcher

was gona do a $10 5/2 double but that was hammered to a $17 payout. not good enough for a 6/1 morningline in the 11th.

[Tampa Russ]

Not a very impressive victory, though. Lots of whipping and no surge past the tiring leader.

Yeah...no way he would have beaten Big Brown today....just kidding:)

[juanepstein]

total watcher

was gona do a $10 5/2 double but that was hammered to a $17 payout. not good enough for a 6/1 morningline in the 11th.


SHABAAAAAM!!!!!! BY A WHISKER BABY!!! thought getting pinched back at the start was gonna cost him.

:2: rock lobster- 1st- $11.80 $6.00 $4.70

[jognlope]

Wish I could have bet, good values considering. Curlin's the greatest.


He was given the key to the city by the Saratoga mayor.

[Stevie Belmont]

Cuuuurlin as I like to say, swept by like it was a breeze. Back on dirt, his domain.

Real props goes to Jess Jackson, he is da man for keeping him going....

Too bad the BC in on poly crap, if thats the reason they are skipping it...

A BB/Curlin match up would be a big thing in Americas richest race....

I hope the reconsider, or find another spot...

Just to see this two hook up, with all the talk, hype and everything that has been said about these two..

Regardless if one thinks one is way better then the other, just do it...Little Nike motto? I guess

It's all about Curlin...Smart Strike, and Mr Prospector, the greatest of the greats...Da beat goes on....

[foregoforever]

Curlin didn't exactly breeze home. His last furlong was 13 and 4, and his last 3f in about 38 and 2. His opening half was about 47 and the 3/4 was about 1:10 and 4. Not a very impressive finish, imo.

Delta Sea finished a lot faster in the opening $20K claimer (13 flat and 37 and 4). Against much slower fractions, of course, and with a much slower final time. But I don't see how Curlin fans can get too excited over this performance.

Pass the Point ran a much more impressive race.

[joanied]

Curlin :jump: did it, but man, it looked like work :eek: to me!! gettin' pinched back wasn't a reason...he runs mid pack anyway...and it wasn't blatant interference or anything...he got clear and ran his race...fast fractions, but they came back to him....Robby had to really get into him and he just beat a 40-1 shot...
Seems to me that Curlin's Woodward rather looked like Big Brown's Haskell... they both won, on guts, class, heart....but each had to work for the win.

If I was Jackson, unless Curlin unleashes a huge effort in the JCGC, I might re consider shipping this colt half way around the world again...

In fact, IMHO...I think BB & Curlin are now on pretty much equal terms:faint:

[OTM Al]

Watched it from the rail. He was kept to task but was asked to do little more than neccessary to win. He didn't even look tired when they brought him back, not like a horse that had to go all out to win. He's better at a little more distance anyway. The 2nd place horse ran an excellent race IMO and got a nice hand from the crowd when he came back.

[equicom]

Who ran 2nd?

[JustRalph]

was it hot up there today? I only got to see a few races, including Curlin, but all the horses looked flat to me............???

[Cratos]

Curlin again showed his class. He is not as dominant at 1 1/8 miles as he is beyond that distance, but his inherent class moves him up.

[Burls]

Not a very impressive victory, though. Lots of whipping and no surge past the tiring leader.
I thought that too, when I first saw the race.
But after watching the replays, I think that the right take on the race is not that Curlin did so badly, but that Past The Point did so well.
I think that's also true of the Haskell; it's not that Big Brown did so badly, it's that Cold Play did so well.

[Burls]

Seems to me that Curlin's Woodward rather looked like Big Brown's Haskell... they both won, on guts, class, heart....but each had to work for the win.
I didn't see your post, Joanie.
I agree with you completely.

[lamboguy]

when they went 6 furlongs in a minute nine, i thought there was no way curlin would not tire out after chasing them around the track. he showed his true heart and got them even though it didn't look impressive. to me he run the best race of his life. most will not agree with me, that is horseracing.

monday TWO STEP SALSA goes in the PENNSYLVANIA DERBY. he has put on over 100 pounds and is training super. this is this guys test, he is in a 14 horse field and is more than likely gonna be the target.

[PaceAdvantage]

Watched it from the rail. He was kept to task but was asked to do little more than neccessary to win.I don't know...I only watched the race twice, but I seem to remember Curlin being in a pretty good drive by Albarado from at least right before the midway point of the turn.

Now, granted, Curlin went wide and was caught between rivals early, but he sat comfortably behind some pretty swift fractions. The fact that it took him FOURTEEN seconds to run his final eighth is very troubling to me...

By comparison, Big Brown was much closer to a loose on the lead front runner in the Haskell, and went his final eighth in 12 and change, if memory serves correct.

Right after the Woodward was over, I predicted that if Big Brown runs well in his next race, the IEAH folks will enter BB in whatever race Curlin runs next (Jockey Club Gold Cup). This DESPITE the apprehension of running BB at Belmont again after the Stakes disaster.

But, then someone told me that BB wasn't nominated to the JCGC...are the nominations in already? Does the JCGC offer the ability to supplement?

If I were BB's owners, and I still had a horse, I would be chomping at the bit to run against Curlin after seeing Saturday's Woodward. Now is the time to pounce, if they still have a horse left in Big Brown that is...

[LottaKash]

My observation of the race and the result was, a classic example of an out of form/shape horse, who on this day and race, showed how superior his Class really is.....A nice prep for some upcoming events, I think........Hey, they can't all be at peak form endlessly, can they ?......If it were considered just a workout, it would be a dandy.....

humbly,

[Hosshead]

I think you have to judge Curlin's performance in the context of his last race.
Yesterdays race was 1/4 mile shorter and different surface (from turf).
In that context I think he did well.
When they shorten up and change surface it's like starting a new "cycle" .
He handled what was thrown at him (with his superior Class), and next time will very much enjoy staying on the dirt, the longer distance, and will be closer to the pace.

[Tom]

Burls, I think you are right.
The speed holding on after those fractions makes it a very good race for the place horse. Curin did get the win, and was finally getting clear under the wire.

I think Curlin would love poly.

[equicom]

Now, granted, Curlin went wide and was caught between rivals early, but he sat comfortably behind some pretty swift fractions. The fact that it took him FOURTEEN seconds to run his final eighth is very troubling to me...

Just because it took him 14 seconds doesn't mean that's all he is capable of. It's just all he needed to do, and he did it. Big Brown is a far superior horse, but I don't expect to see the two clash.

[Cratos]

If I were BB's owners, and I still had a horse, I would be chomping at the bit to run against Curlin after seeing Saturday's Woodward. Now is the time to pounce, if they still have a horse left in Big Brown that is...

PA, I have said it before and I will say it again, Big Brown is the best 3yo of 2008 by far, but against Curlin or any of the top older horses he would have as about much chance as an ice cube on a hot tin roof.

I respect your opinion and your affection for Big Brown, but objectively and rationally tell me what makes Big Brown superior (that is, if you think so) than War Emblem, Funny Cide, Point Given, Real Quiet, or Smarty Jones all of whom are recent winners of two legs of the Triple Crown.

A case can be made for Curlin when compared against recent champion older horses that he is probably the best older horse since John Henry and Cigar. However I will add Medaglia d’Ore for any race up to 1 1/8 miles because he was 5 for 6 in wins at that distance and his loss was a second by a neck.

Again, I am asking for objectivity and not emotion; and there isn’t any intent by me to demean Big Brown or overly praised Curlin, but to see a clear and concise opinion that differentiates Big Brown in a way that makes him the superior animal that you think he is.

[joanied]

I didn't see your post, Joanie.
I agree with you completely.

Thanks, Burls.
:)

[equicom]

I respect your opinion and your affection for Big Brown, but objectively and rationally tell me what makes Big Brown superior (that is, if you think so) than War Emblem, Funny Cide, Point Given, Real Quiet, or Smarty Jones all of whom are recent winners of two legs of the Triple Crown.

Hey, hey.... Comparing Big Brown to Funny Cide is like comparing a rocket to a jalopy. Funny Cide would not touch Big Brown in a match up.

Big Brown may have failed in the last leg of the Triple Crown, but given that he's had a few physical ailments to deal with, I think we can excuse him an off-day, especially when he has to fight his jockey so much.

I don't like to draw comparisons, but Barbaro won the Florida Derby in 1:49.0 by a half length from Sharp Humor in 2006. Big Brown won this year's Florida Derby by 5 lengths in 1:48.1, with the first section in 45.8 compared to Barbaro's 47.1, also Big Brown set his own pace, while Barbaro was made to stalk Sharp Humor, so he may have gone a little faster if permitted. What a great racehorse he was! I think Big Brown is another champion in the making and at the moment he looks a very good chance to take the Kentucky Derby.

The horse that seems best positioned to pull off a massive upset is Eight Belles. Although she is only a filly, her form is very good and she has enough zip to press forward early, while many of the rivals prefer to go back. This is the main thing that keeps Big Brown in contention, because horses like Pyro and Colonel John do not typically want to race on the speed.

Big Brown is not the best racehorse ever, but unfortunately we'll never get the chance to see him live up to his full potential. He's a good looking horse and a lovely mover, and he knows how to get the job done.

All of the horses you mentioned are very good and deserve admiration, but to compare Big Brown at this stage of his career is unfair, and I would say he is better than War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Funny Cide by a long way. And he is definitely better than Curlin, even if he may not get the chance to prove it.

[rastajenk]

That's just crazy talk.

[Burls]

I think Curlin would love poly.
I don't have the disdain for poly that many on this board do, so I wouldn't mind seeing Curlin run in the 2008 Breeder's Cup.
To me, it makes sense to try a horse with good closing speed on poly.
On the other hand, Curlin has proven himself on dirt already and, for whatever reason, he might not do so well on poly.
According to David Grening for the DRF yesterday:
Though Jackson said the Breeders’ Cup is "not prominently" on his list because it's run on a synthetic surface, he didn't completely rule it out.
So who knows?
While I'm on things DRF, the DRF gave Curlin a 112 Beyer for the Woodward, which ain't too shabby.
That means Past The Point will get about 109 or 110.

[sandpit]

"A case can be made for Curlin when compared against recent champion older horses that he is probably the best older horse since John Henry and Cigar. However I will add Medaglia d’Ore for any race up to 1 1/8 miles because he was 5 for 6 in wins at that distance and his loss was a second by a neck."

You also could make the same case for several older horses being better than Curlin since the time of John Henry: Ghostzapper, Skip Away, Invasor, Tiznow, A.P. Indy, and even Formal Gold. I don't have all the data, but I know that most of these horses ran Beyers higher than 120; Formal Gold ran a 124 or better in 3 consecutive races, the only horse in history to do so.

Always tough to compare horses across generations, but the horses I mentioned above all had other top class horses to push them to great things (except maybe A.P. Indy); something Curlin hasn't had to date, no fault of his, and maybe if he did, he would be even more highly regarded.

[JustRalph]

How can you say BB is better when we don't know who the hell BB is now?

Obviously a completely different horse after coming off Steroids.

[Cratos]

"A case can be made for Curlin when compared against recent champion older horses that he is probably the best older horse since John Henry and Cigar. However I will add Medaglia d’Ore for any race up to 1 1/8 miles because he was 5 for 6 in wins at that distance and his loss was a second by a neck."

You also could make the same case for several older horses being better than Curlin since the time of John Henry: Ghostzapper, Skip Away, Invasor, Tiznow, A.P. Indy, and even Formal Gold. I don't have all the data, but I know that most of these horses ran Beyers higher than 120; Formal Gold ran a 124 or better in 3 consecutive races, the only horse in history to do so.

Always tough to compare horses across generations, but the horses I mentioned above all had other top class horses to push them to great things (except maybe A.P. Indy); something Curlin hasn't had to date, no fault of his, and maybe if he did, he would be even more highly regarded.


I agree in part with your response, but if I am correct neither Ghostzapper nor Invasor ran in any of the TC races and while that don’t minimize their efforts I still don’t see either of them equal to Curlin even though Ghostzapper is one of my all time favorites. Formal Gold doesn’t rank in my opinion with any of these horses including Curlin.

Skip Away on second thought is better than Curlin and I should have reviewed his accomplishments more closely because not only did he win, he won toting high weight. AP Indy never got his chance to be great although he was an outstanding 3yo and Tiznow was too much of an “in and outer” for me to rank him above Curlin

[PaceAdvantage]

I respect your opinion and your affection for Big Brown, but objectively and rationally tell me what makes Big Brown superior (that is, if you think so) than War Emblem, Funny Cide, Point Given, Real Quiet, or Smarty Jones all of whom are recent winners of two legs of the Triple Crown.Correct me if I'm wrong, but when did I ever say Big Brown was superior to Point Given or Smarty Jones? I believe all the horses you listed have run faster (Beyer-wise) than Big Brown has to date. I personally think Point Given and Smarty Jones were superior to Big Brown. The other three you mention, I would have to think about some more....

Again, I am asking for objectivity and not emotion; and there isn’t any intent by me to demean Big Brown or overly praised Curlin, but to see a clear and concise opinion that differentiates Big Brown in a way that makes him the superior animal that you think he is.I don't think Big Brown is superior to Curlin at this very moment. On more than once occasion recently, I have only stated that I think Big Brown would be COMPETITIVE with Curlin given ANY NORMAL 3yo IMPROVEMENT between NOW and Breeders' Cup time...."Competitive" means I think BB has a shot to beat Curlin if he improves between now and when (IF) they meet.

And I feel this way because it is my opinion that Curlin is slightly overrated by most folks (and I stated this before his lackluster Woodward victory).

[delayjf]

It is possible that Curlin's win in Dubia has taken so much out of him that he will never regain his previous form. Until he runs to his previous levels, I'm will to take a stance against him, if I see an improving type of runner who looks like he can step up.

Both War Emblem and Smarty Jones had better Beyers than BB in the KD-PK-and the Belmont. I would guess that WE's Haskell was better than BBs as well, so how you can state BB was better with any certaintly than either one of them is beyond me.

[equicom]

Don't forget, Big Brown is a Kentucky Derby winner. Curlin is not.

[cj]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but when did I ever say Big Brown was superior to Point Given or Smarty Jones? I believe all the horses you listed have run faster (Beyer-wise) than Big Brown has to date. I personally think Point Given and Smarty Jones were superior to Big Brown. The other three you mention, I would have to think about some more....

I don't think Big Brown is superior to Curlin at this very moment. On more than once occasion recently, I have only stated that I think Big Brown would be COMPETITIVE with Curlin given ANY NORMAL 3yo IMPROVEMENT between NOW and Breeders' Cup time...."Competitive" means I think BB has a shot to beat Curlin if he improves between now and when (IF) they meet.

And I feel this way because it is my opinion that Curlin is slightly overrated by most folks (and I stated this before his lackluster Woodward victory).

I don't get what was so lackluster about his victory.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't get what was so lackluster about his victory.Well, for one, his final eighth, you will agree, was lackluster, especially for a horse that sat well off those brisk early fractions.

Plus, one wouldn't expect the best horse in training to have to work so hard to get by the 40-1 front runner who set those brisk fractions....plus, I thought Albarado had Curlin in a pretty good drive before they even hit the midway point on the turn...

All these things add up to lackluster in my mind, and I wasn't expecting such a high Beyer to be awarded, but then again, I have nothing to base that expectation on other than gut feeling.

[cj]

Well, for one, his final eighth, you will agree, was lackluster, especially for a horse that sat well off those brisk early fractions.

Plus, one wouldn't expect the best horse in training to have to work so hard to get by the 40-1 front runner who set those brisk fractions....plus, I thought Albarado had Curlin in a pretty good drive before they even hit the midway point on the turn...

All these things add up to lackluster in my mind, and I wasn't expecting such a high Beyer to be awarded, but then again, I have nothing to base that expectation on other than gut feeling.

The pace was more than fast in my opinion, it was brutal. Curlin was off the pace, but not by much.

That 40 to 1 shot probably should not have been 40 to 1. I try not to base my opinions about a horse on the public's prerace perception of how he should run.

On my numbers, there is no comparison between Curlin's effort and that of Big Brown.

[equicom]

That 40 to 1 shot probably should not have been 40 to 1. I try not to base my opinions about a horse on the public's prerace perception of how he should run.

My own system (name of which I will not mention here because I still haven't gotten around to sending PA some cash for the privellege) picked Curlin on top as a standout, and put Past The Point as the second selection.

I was a bit surprised by that personally because with normal human bias I'd have selected Out Of Control as the next best horse, but PTP was the computer 2nd pick.

The warning was in the race on 08/03/08 when PTP won by 1½ at 9 furlongs in 1:50.0 (a lowly n2x optional) at Saratoga and was in command throughout. Prado is an excellent judge of his rides, and in this he not only was willing to take the ride that some might have turned down, but also knew how to get the best out of him. The horse, however, just wasn't up to the same class physically as Curlin.

[PaceAdvantage]

The pace was more than fast in my opinion, it was brutal. Curlin was off the pace, but not by much.

That 40 to 1 shot probably should not have been 40 to 1. I try not to base my opinions about a horse on the public's prerace perception of how he should run.

On my numbers, there is no comparison between Curlin's effort and that of Big Brown.OK, no argument here...the pace was brutal...I'll agree....

He sat 5.5-6 lengths off this brutal pace in each of the first three fractions....I'd call that comfortably off the pace.

Combine the brutal early fractions set by the eventual second place finisher with Curlin's pedestrian final eighth and I have to raise some question marks.

Is Past the Point some sort of monster? Able to set blazing fractions and hold on rather well against the best horse in training? The track didn't seem to be playing favorites towards frontrunners, so I don't think we can say the track carried PTP home....nor can we say it hindered Curlin thus causing him to tire more than usual towards the end.

I take it from your comments that your numbers are telling you Curlin ran the kind of race Curlin was supposed to run....

[cj]

I am just saying it is possible Pass the Point is very good. We'll find out pretty soon I would imagine.

[Tom]

Was the track souped up just prior to the W?
Seeing the place horse set those fractions and hold on made me wonder.

[46zilzal]

Both War Emblem and Smarty Jones had better Beyers than BB in the KD-PK-and the Belmont. I would guess that WE's Haskell was better than BBs as well, so how you can state BB was better with any certaintly than either one of them is beyond me.
Beyers don't mean much to begin with and comparing them years apart is even more ludicrous. I recall one comparison that, based in Beyers, had several horses beating Affirmed. No way: until they run versus each other HEAD TO HEAD this Beyer malarkey remains as ridiculous.

[jonnielu]

The pace was more than fast in my opinion, it was brutal. Curlin was off the pace, but not by much.

That 40 to 1 shot probably should not have been 40 to 1. I try not to base my opinions about a horse on the public's prerace perception of how he should run.

On my numbers, there is no comparison between Curlin's effort and that of Big Brown.

Do your numbers show Curlin's difficulty in passing the 40-1 shot? Or do they show the 40-1 shot not folding up like a .50 cent lawn chair?

You are correct, the 40-1 shot should not have been 40-1, but do your numbers show that?

jdl

[Charlie D]

I am just saying it is possible Pass the Point is very good.


As good as Big Brown???

[asH]

Considering PTP ran a first quarter in 22.89, then 23.31, 23.41, 25.72, 14.01. It's obvious the strength of the race was during the early to mid parts of the race. True, the draft effect (or speed blast radius)could account for sapping some of Curlins strength, it shouldnt have drained it to the point of a super horse running a bit better than 14 last furlong off of a 1.35.33 mile....flash back to Commentators 06' Whitney;Bill James approach (for arguments sake suppose track bias's are similar) Commentator 23.56, 46.41, 69.76, 1:34.81, 1:48.33 on the lead Saint Liam moved after 6 (being 5 back) to lose a length23.56, 22.85, 23.35, 25.05, 13.52 Commentator

22.89, 23.31, 23.41, 25.72, 14.01 Curlin

If bias being the difference in the fractions one of two conclusions are true: either Past the Point is a super horse, or Curlin is not.

another point is Prado is not Stevens on a lead horse which led to the 22.89, and Albarado strength is not his stretch drive, I've always felt Curlin's strength requires a strong stretch jock (Gomez,JRVelasquez) to help him extend strides...Albarado is mainly a whip jock

[classhandicapper]

I knew this race was going to generate a lot of discussion.

In order to assign a 112 for the Woodward, Beyer used seperate variants for the sprints and routes. He thought the routes were slower. (the other route was early in the card).

The potential problem with that conclusion is that by almost any standard (visual, the speed horses themselves, the fractions etc..) the Woodward pace was very fast. So almost by definition that means Past the Point and Wanderin Boy ran better than their final time indicates. If the race was really a 112, then PTP ran a gigantic race and WB ran one of his best lifetime races (perhaps best).

Perhaps the routes weren't as slow as they looked?

Perhaps the pace of the Woodward was so fast it negatively impacted all of the top 3 horses (we can be almost certain it negatively impacted PTP and WB).

With only two routes to analyze and the races themselves seperated by hours, it is very difficult to tell how much the final time of the Woodward was impacted by the fast pace and how much it was impacted by the fact that the routes seemed to be slower than the sprints. They are seperate issues, but to measure the race properly you really sort of have to have a solid opinion on both.

I think it's almost Certain that PTP ran a very big race. I think it takes a very big performance to outsprint a solid Grade 3/Grade 2 horses like Wanderin Boy and not collapse against a field of other good horses (especially Curlin even if he wasn't at his best). I think it's also likely that Wanderin Boy ran one of his better races.

I think the key question is estimating just how fast that pace was and how much it impacted Curlin even though he was several lengths off it early. He worked quite hard during the very fast middle to get into contention. But the faster you think it was (and therefore the greater the impact it had on Curlin) the better that makes PTP and WB look.

This may be one of those instances where it's very difficult to be certain how well all three horses actually ran.

[cj]

Beyer doesn't have the routes slower than the sprints though. It appears to me he stuck with the same difference he generally uses between the two.

[Charlie D]

I thought it was interesting that Curlin and AP Arrow finished a similar distance apart to what they did in Dubai.

This makes me think that maybe Pass the Point is a very good horse, however, a doubt sets in with Wandering Boy, who seems to have ran one his best ever races as far as i can tell


As CH states it a difficult one

[delayjf]

Beyers don't mean much to begin with and comparing them years apart is even more ludicrous. I recall one comparison that, based in Beyers, had several horses beating Affirmed. No way: until they run versus each other HEAD TO HEAD this Beyer malarkey remains as ridiculous.
I'm not saying comparing Beyers is the be all way to compare horses from different years, but I would argue that its a less subjective than simply watching the race and evaluating BB by how easily he beat a lack luster field. Also, I'm also looking at the Beyers for more than one race, which would give the data more validity. The preponderance of evidence does not support that BB is the superior horse.

[Charlie D]

Ok, numbers crunched and FWIW

Woodward handicap rating

Curlin 129
Past the Point 127
Wanderin Boy 124
AP Arrow 116

Saratoga Allowance rating

Past the Point 122


Dubai World Cup rating

Curlin 131
AP Arrow 116

I find the above very interesting and going by the numbers it suggests PTP is indeed a good horse and i hope he can go on and confirm what the above suggests, as the more good horses going head to head, the more enjoyable the racing is imo

[classhandicapper]

Beyer doesn't have the routes slower than the sprints though. It appears to me he stuck with the same difference he generally uses between the two.

Are you sure?

The last time I looked at a Beyer sprint/route chart it would have suggested that he broke the routes out. The sprint feature that day was obviously very fast. On the surface the Woodward doesn't even look that fast, yet the Woodward got the higher figure.

I may be looking at an out of date chart. I don't bother making comparisons like this every day. Regardless, there is still some kind of "question mark" here related to the pace.

[cj]

Are you sure?

The last time I looked at a Beyer sprint/route chart it would have suggested that he broke the routes out. The sprint feature that day was obviously very fast. On the surface the Woodward doesn't even look that fast, yet the Woodward got the higher figure.

I may be looking at an out of date chart. I don't bother making comparisons like this every day. Regardless, there is still some kind of "question mark" here related to the pace.

He doesn't use the standard charts for all tracks. Each track has a standard sprint/route adjustment, and the one used on Saturday matched the normal one, sprints around 10 points faster. It does often change on a daily basis though.

Am I sure? Come on, who you talking to? :D

[classhandicapper]

He doesn't use the standard charts for all tracks. Each track has a standard sprint/route adjustment, and the one used on Saturday matched the normal one, sprints around 10 points faster. It does often change on a daily basis though.

Am I sure? Come on, who you talking to? :D

LOL.

I know the sprint/route relationships are often different from track to track, but I didn't realize the routes at Saratoga typically run that much slower.

I may have to reconsider my thinking about the outcome a little.

I find it hard to believe that PTP could be that good and that Wanderin Boy could have run a speed figure at the upper end of his range despite not making the lead and running that fast a pace.

Something is strange.

[jonnielu]

LOL.

I know the sprint/route relationships are often different from track to track, but I didn't realize the routes at Saratoga typically run that much slower.

I may have to reconsider my thinking about the outcome a little.

I find it hard to believe that PTP could be that good and that Wanderin Boy could have run a speed figure at the upper end of his range despite not making the lead and running that fast a pace.

Something is strange.

I'll say, I would think that CJ's numbers oughta show something about PTP, but now with 2 sets there is nothing.

jdl

[cj]

I'll say, I would think that CJ's numbers oughta show something about PTP, but now with 2 sets there is nothing.

jdl

Any chance you could use English?

[jonnielu]

Any chance you could use English?

See post #54, for the plain questions.

jdl

[cj]

Do your numbers show Curlin's difficulty in passing the 40-1 shot? Or do they show the 40-1 shot not folding up like a .50 cent lawn chair?

You are correct, the 40-1 shot should not have been 40-1, but do your numbers show that?

jdl

Sorry, missed this one. Coming into the race, on dirt, I had Pass the Point not being on the level of Curlin, but as good as the rest of the field. I think the 40 to 1 was because people are still getting fooled by the synthetic running lines. The slow paced, easy win in the last on dirt didn't reflect the horse's true ability either and that certainly helped the price.

[jonnielu]

Sorry, missed this one. Coming into the race, on dirt, I had Pass the Point not being on the level of Curlin, but as good as the rest of the field. I think the 40 to 1 was because people are still getting fooled by the synthetic running lines. The slow paced, easy win in the last on dirt didn't reflect the horse's true ability either and that certainly helped the price.

That is a point, but I think people are dismissing synthetic running lines too. I would think that the notion of class helped to bring PTP to 40-1 most, and this race may be an example of one where class might deserve a re-think.

When it would seem obvious that a horse doesn't belong here, I find a re-think of that idea is most appropriate. If the trainer is not a known idiot, there must be something that tells him, to give the Woodward a shot. Maybe it just fell on him where the horse belongs. That's very general, but re-consideration can always turn up something else if it is there.

On my numbers, Curlin ran well at 11fTurf, and at 10f dirt, he is a machine, always around 50. PTP off his last at 9f was a 47, I'd keep an eye on him, he seems to have some goods.

jdl

[classhandicapper]

That is a point, but I think people are dismissing synthetic running lines too. I would think that the notion of class helped to bring PTP to 40-1 most, and this race may be an example of one where class might deserve a re-think.

When it would seem obvious that a horse doesn't belong here, I find a re-think of that idea is most appropriate. If the trainer is not a known idiot, there must be something that tells him, to give the Woodward a shot. Maybe it just fell on him where the horse belongs. That's very general, but re-consideration can always turn up something else if it is there.

On my numbers, Curlin ran well at 11fTurf, and at 10f dirt, he is a machine, always around 50. PTP off his last at 9f was a 47, I'd keep an eye on him, he seems to have some goods.

jdl

The race wasn't a particularly deep Grade 1 once Divine Park ran poorly off the layoff (I haven't read anything about him, but I suspect he has a problem).

AP Arrow has been far off his best form.

Loose Leaf just barely won a NW3 ALW.

Out of Control is a turf horse that showed some ability on dirt early in his career, but there was certainly a chance he would throw in a poor race on dirt against this caliber (and did).

Wanderin Boy was coming off a fast Classifed Alw win, but his overall record suggested he was more of very solid Grade 3 horse that could run well in spots against better.

I think Wanderin Boy more or less ran to his best form.

Past the Point demostrated some class last year in the Super Derby as a 3YO. He appeared to be an improving horse at that time. This year he was running on synthetic and turf until his last race where improved sharply against weaker. I don't think I would have made him a favorite over either Divine Park (who didn't run well) or even Wanderin Boy. But he certainly had the profile of a horse that COULD improve sharply given that he was lightly raced and his weak form on synthetic and turf this year was suspicious. I think no matter how you slice it 40-1 was probably pretty generous to fill out the exacta and he ran a new lifetime best. It's just a matter of "how much" he improved.

[JeremyJet]

He doesn't use the standard charts for all tracks. Each track has a standard sprint/route adjustment, and the one used on Saturday matched the normal one, sprints around 10 points faster. It does often change on a daily basis though.

Am I sure? Come on, who you talking to? :D

Going off memory, on my [theoretical] speed charts, the Forego was a 118 raw BSF and the Woodward came back at 104.

Also, par times compiled by David Schwartz (who's been making pars for a long, long time) indicate the following at Saratoga:

7f Par
====
73 BSF

9f Par
====
75 BSF

While I can't say that the HorseStreet Pars are [100%] accurate, I find it hard to believe they could be 8 points off at a track like Saratoga.

JeremyJet

[cj]

Going off memory, on my [theoretical] speed charts, the Forego was a 118 raw BSF and the Woodward came back at 104.

Also, par times compiled by David Schwartz (who's been making pars for a long, long time) indicate the following at Saratoga:

7f Par
====
73 BSF

9f Par
====
75 BSF

While I can't say that the HorseStreet Pars are [100%] accurate, I find it hard to believe they could be 8 points off at a track like Saratoga.

JeremyJet

Nobody said they were "off". A par already takes the variant into consideration.

What I was saying was that the standard adjustment from the "basic" Beyer speed chart for routes at Saratoga is usually around 10 points. I believe they went with 12 on Saturday.

The charts I use, and they are normally dead on, give First Defense a 121 raw figure, and Curlin a 113. The difference you have of 14 seems to big to me.

[JeremyJet]

Nobody said they were "off"..

You made mention that:

"He [b] doesn't use the standard charts for all tracks. Each track has a standard sprint/route adjustment, and the one used on Saturday matched the normal one, sprints around 10 points faster. It does often change on a daily basis though."

"Sprints around 10 points faster than routes" indicate that my pars are [off]. I didn't say [you] said it.

A par already takes the variant into consideration.

No, cj, when you're looking to make [distance-to-distance adjustments], the pars have to be [raw] pars.

The charts I use, and they are normally dead on, give First Defense a 121 raw figure, and Curlin a 113. The difference you have of 14 seems to big to me.

Are your speed charts as accurate as your Racing Post/Beyer adjustments? :rolleyes:

Well, I don't think anyone can say their charts are 100% accurate, but [I] know the work that went into my charts, and I stand by them. As i'm sure you stand by yours.

JeremyJet

[Robert Fischer]

It was a good race but nothing great. That performance will win a lot of grade I races, but not all.

[cj]

You made mention that:

"He [b] doesn't use the standard charts for all tracks. Each track has a standard sprint/route adjustment, and the one used on Saturday matched the normal one, sprints around 10 points faster. It does often change on a daily basis though."

"Sprints around 10 points faster than routes" indicate that my pars are [off]. I didn't say [you] said it.



No, cj, when you're looking to make [distance-to-distance adjustments], the pars have to be [raw] pars.



Are your speed charts as accurate as your Racing Post/Beyer adjustments? :rolleyes:

Well, I don't think anyone can say their charts are 100% accurate, but [I] know the work that went into my charts, and I stand by them. As i'm sure you stand by yours.

JeremyJet

When I say my charts are accurate, I'm talking about in relation to the Beyers. I check them every day in Simulcast Daily.

What is wrong with the RPR adjustments? You have something better, please feel free to share.

[cj]

You made mention that:

No, cj, when you're looking to make [distance-to-distance adjustments], the pars have to be [raw] pars.

JeremyJet

If HSH has the Beyer par at 73, or 75, that assumes the variant is already built in. Without a variant, it isn't a Beyer.

[JeremyJet]

What is wrong with the RPR adjustments? You have something better, please feel free to share.

My thoughts on this subject are on record in a previous thread.

JeremyJet

[JeremyJet]

If HSH has the Beyer par at 73, or 75, that assumes the variant is already built in. Without a variant, it isn't a Beyer.

I guess you'll have to ask Dave. Those are raw pars, cj. How can you make distance-to-distance adjustments if the pars include the variant?

JeremyJet

[Charlie D]

Woodward

Curlin 122 RPR

[cj]

My thoughts on this subject are on record in a previous thread.

JeremyJet

I'll take that as you don't.

As for asking Dave, why? I don't care. But a "Beyer" par generally means with the variant included. I don't use them, but if you do, feel free to ask away. Seems like it might be important.

[JeremyJet]

Woodward

Curlin 122 RPR

That's the Racing Post Rating, Charlie? Interesting. My [approximate] RPR/Beyer adjustment is -15 or so. That would give CURLIN a 107. That looks a lot more reasonable to me than the 112 BSF they gave him. I usually have no problem with the numbers they give horses, but I just don't understand how they arrived at the Forego/Woodward numbers.

When I first looked at the results, I thought the raw numbers of the two races fit well with no adjustment. I was shocked when the Woodward came back faster than the Forego when the raw numbers indicated the Forego was 14 points faster.

How did you find out the Racing Post Rating for the Woodward, Charlie?

JeremyJet

[Charlie D]

Thats what Racing Post handicappers have awarded Curlin for Woodward


My speed figure is 112, same as Beyers, my handicap rating is above


Converting RPR's is meaningless as i stated elsewhere

[Charlie D]

How did you find out the Racing Post Rating for the Woodward, Charlie



http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/home.sd

[cj]

JJ,

I also gave a 107 speed figure.

[Charlie D]

Speedfigure = apple, Handicap rating = pear


When converting, you are converting a pear into an apple

[JeremyJet]

JJ,

I also gave a 107 speed figure.

Really? That's cool. What did you give the Forego?

Here's CURLIN's Racing Post Ratings and Beyer numbers:

Woodward 122 112 [-10]
S. Foster 118 104 [-14]
World Cup 131 ???
Jag. Trophy 130 ???
-------------------
BC Classic 131 119 [-12]
JC Gold Cup 129 114 [-15]
Haskell 121 105 [-16]
Belmont 127 107 [-20]
Preakness 124 111 [-13]
KY Derby 111 98 [-13]
Ark Derby 118 105 [-13]
Rebel 116 99 [-17]

I don't know, I think the 112 in the Woodward is too high.

JeremyJet

[JeremyJet]

Speedfigure = apple, Handicap rating = pear


When converting, you are converting a pear into an apple

Yeah, but they're both fruits. ;)

JeremyJet

[Charlie D]

Aye, but they are not the same shape or taste

[JeremyJet]

Sorry I couldn't get the columns to align correctly for the data I posted on CURLIN. :blush:

JeremyJet

[Charlie D]

Guys it's up to you, but my advice would be if you have the time, go to racingpost website and find the meeting(s) the shipper ran at and make your own figure(s) from the info on the result page

[classhandicapper]

JJ,

I also gave a 107 speed figure.

A 107 makes a lot more sense to me.

[asH]

figures are an art not a science...


and art is subjective.

[thespaah]

Curlin :jump: did it, but man, it looked like work :eek: to me!! gettin' pinched back wasn't a reason...he runs mid pack anyway...and it wasn't blatant interference or anything...he got clear and ran his race...fast fractions, but they came back to him....Robby had to really get into him and he just beat a 40-1 shot...
Seems to me that Curlin's Woodward rather looked like Big Brown's Haskell... they both won, on guts, class, heart....but each had to work for the win.

If I was Jackson, unless Curlin unleashes a huge effort in the JCGC, I might re consider shipping this colt half way around the world again...

In fact, IMHO...I think BB & Curlin are now on pretty much equal terms:faint:Curlin had to work hard on what appeared to be a glib surface. Big Brown ,hwo in myu opinion needs to be sent home for the year, needed every inch of the 9furlongs and was drifting away from the fence at the end.
No comparison betwen these two.
Curlin does his last dance in the JCGC and skips the BC Classic on the fake crap.

[thespaah]

I don't know...I only watched the race twice, but I seem to remember Curlin being in a pretty good drive by Albarado from at least right before the midway point of the turn.

Now, granted, Curlin went wide and was caught between rivals early, but he sat comfortably behind some pretty swift fractions. The fact that it took him FOURTEEN seconds to run his final eighth is very troubling to me...

By comparison, Big Brown was much closer to a loose on the lead front runner in the Haskell, and went his final eighth in 12 and change, if memory serves correct.

Right after the Woodward was over, I predicted that if Big Brown runs well in his next race, the IEAH folks will enter BB in whatever race Curlin runs next (Jockey Club Gold Cup). This DESPITE the apprehension of running BB at Belmont again after the Stakes disaster.

But, then someone told me that BB wasn't nominated to the JCGC...are the nominations in already? Does the JCGC offer the ability to supplement?

If I were BB's owners, and I still had a horse, I would be chomping at the bit to run against Curlin after seeing Saturday's Woodward. Now is the time to pounce, if they still have a horse left in Big Brown that is...
I looked at the NYRA website, horsemaen's section. Opened up "stakes nominations". It appears that the Noms listed don't go past Sept 14th. Based on that, I would have to say the Noms for the JCGC are still open.

[joanied]

thespaah (post#93),
In all fairness, it's a little difficult to compare a 3 yr old with a 4 yr old...and in the case of Curlin (best horse in the world) his run in the Woodward should have been easier than it was...he had good position ect. Never mind the surface he or BB last ran on...you have to admit, they both had to work for those wins. Both were put into an early drive...BB did drift, but he got the job done and actually ran a better last 8th than Curlin did.
So, until they each run again, I would propose that at this point in time, they are on fairly equal terms, despite the age difference.
Let's see what each does next time out.

Oh... don't know what you mean by sending BB home for a year...when he goes 'home', it'll be to the Three Chimney's breeding shed.

And you may be right about Curlin's last dance...although there has been some rumor of late that Jackson just may go to the BC with Curlin...but, if they do, Jackson will be going against his total dislike of the synthetic...I think if Curlin wins the JCGC easily, they'll run him once more....someplace!!
:) :) :)

[Cratos]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but when did I ever say Big Brown was superior to Point Given or Smarty Jones? I believe all the horses you listed have run faster (Beyer-wise) than Big Brown has to date. I personally think Point Given and Smarty Jones were superior to Big Brown. The other three you mention, I would have to think about some more....

I don't think Big Brown is superior to Curlin at this very moment. On more than once occasion recently, I have only stated that I think Big Brown would be COMPETITIVE with Curlin given ANY NORMAL 3yo IMPROVEMENT between NOW and Breeders' Cup time...."Competitive" means I think BB has a shot to beat Curlin if he improves between now and when (IF) they meet.

And I feel this way because it is my opinion that Curlin is slightly overrated by most folks (and I stated this before his lackluster Woodward victory).

PA, thanks for your cogent response and while I am not as a big supporter of Big Brown’s talent as you are, I clearly understand the having of passion for a particular horse because in 1978 Alydar was a horse that I believed at the time was the “second coming of Secretariat.” However Affirmed proved me to be wrong several times over.

[46zilzal]

PA, thanks for your cogent response and while I am not as a big supporter of Big Brown’s talent as you are, I clearly understand the having of passion for a particular horse because in 1978 Alydar was a horse that I believed at the time was the “second coming of Secretariat.” However Affirmed proved me to be wrong several times over.
And here I thought the second coming was Easy Goer and, like you, missed it.

[JeremyJet]

I revisited this here topic today. I was curious as to what par times Beyer was useing for Saratoga after cj made mention of it. Here's what I found out.

To bring the 9f races in to line with the sprints [6 furlongs], Beyer is adding 14 points to the theoretical 9f speed chart. :eek: Let's just say the HorseStreet pars don't show that to be the case. :confused:

7f, btw, Beyer subtracts 3 points.

So my raw times, for the Forego and the Woodward, adjusted using the Beyer pars, come out looking like this:

Forego
=====
118-3=115

Woodward
========
104+14=118

Beyer gave the Forego a 108 and the Woodward a 112. So everything comes in to line when useing the Beyer pars. His variant for the day was either -6 or -7.

Abd now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

JeremyJet

[Cratos]

I revisited this here topic today. I was curious as to what par times Beyer was useing for Saratoga after cj made mention of it. Here's what I found out.

To bring the 9f races in to line with the sprints [6 furlongs], Beyer is adding 14 points to the theoretical 9f speed chart. :eek: Let's just say the HorseStreet pars don't show that to be the case. :confused:

7f, btw, Beyer subtracts 3 points.

So my raw times, for the Forego and the Woodward, adjusted using the Beyer pars, come out looking like this:

Forego
=====
118-3=115

Woodward
========
104+14=118

Beyer gave the Forego a 108 and the Woodward a 112. So everything comes in to line when useing the Beyer pars. His variant for the day was either -6 or -7.

Abd now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

JeremyJet

I find your speed figure calculation most interesting since the running curve of a horse race in most cases is downward sloping and is defined typically by more than one horse having the lead in the race at any given time. Therefore to create linearity of time with respect to distance is baffling.

[cj]

I revisited this here topic today. I was curious as to what par times Beyer was useing for Saratoga after cj made mention of it. Here's what I found out.

To bring the 9f races in to line with the sprints [6 furlongs], Beyer is adding 14 points to the theoretical 9f speed chart. :eek: Let's just say the HorseStreet pars don't show that to be the case. :confused:

7f, btw, Beyer subtracts 3 points.

So my raw times, for the Forego and the Woodward, adjusted using the Beyer pars, come out looking like this:

Forego
=====
118-3=115

Woodward
========
104+14=118

Beyer gave the Forego a 108 and the Woodward a 112. So everything comes in to line when useing the Beyer pars. His variant for the day was either -6 or -7.

Abd now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

JeremyJet

This is all I was trying to say, that Beyer didn't break out the race and used the normal sprint/route variant. I never said I agreed with the number. :D

[JeremyJet]

This is all I was trying to say, that Beyer didn't break out the race and used the normal sprint/route variant. I never said I agreed with the number. :D

I knew what you were trying to say, I just had a hard time comprehending how the two sets of pars could be off by so much. But they were. It's amazing.

JeremyJet

[proximity]

I knew what you were trying to say, I just had a hard time comprehending how the two sets of pars could be off by so much. But they were. It's amazing.

JeremyJet

what are sar's 6f and 1 1/8 pars for msw and stakes?

[JeremyJet]

what are sar's 6f and 1 1/8 pars for msw and stakes?

The pars I was referring to are different than what you're asking about. But i'll try to help you out best I can.

The MSW par is 88. I couldn't find a par for stakes races on the dirt, but 108 is the par for turf races, and dirt pars are usually a couple/few points faster than turf pars.

Hope that helps.

JeremyJet

[proximity]

The pars I was referring to are different than what you're asking about. But i'll try to help you out best I can.

The MSW par is 88. I couldn't find a par for stakes races on the dirt, but 108 is the par for turf races, and dirt pars are usually a couple/few points faster than turf pars.

Hope that helps.

JeremyJet

no, i am referring to the actual times you are using......

[JeremyJet]

no, i am referring to the actual times you are using......

88 Beyer
======
6f: 1:10.95
9f: 1:51.20

108 Beyer
=======
6f: 1:09.50
9f: 1:48.90

JeremyJet

[proximity]

88 Beyer
======
6f: 1:10.95
9f: 1:51.20

108 Beyer
=======
6f: 1:09.50
9f: 1:48.90

JeremyJet

thanks jeremy. i'd seen a sample of those pars where they didn't seem to utilize parallel time (like beyer) but those numbers seem to match up.

[PaceAdvantage]

Big Brown ,hwo in myu opinion needs to be sent home for the year, needed every inch of the 9furlongs and was drifting away from the fence at the end. Funny, the race I saw had Big Brown going away at the end and winning by 1 1/2 lengths if memory serves....as the late John Holmes used to say, "that's a lot of inches..."

No comparison betwen these two. Curlin does his last dance in the JCGC and skips the BC Classic on the fake crap.Oh, there's a comparison, and it's getting closer with every race, apparently. BB Beyer = 109 for Haskell with a FASTER closing eighth.....Curlin Beyer = 112 for Woodward.

Curlin seems to be regressing a tad since coming back from Dubai, while BB has every right to improve off his comeback race....

Of course, BB has bad feet and an unpredictable team behind him, so anything can happen.

But to this observer, it wouldn't be any sort of shock to see BB give Curlin a serious run should these two ever meet in the fall....

[PaceAdvantage]

I looked at the NYRA website, horsemaen's section. Opened up "stakes nominations". It appears that the Noms listed don't go past Sept 14th. Based on that, I would have to say the Noms for the JCGC are still open.You are definitely correct...noms for the JCGC have not yet been taken....my bad....

[ghostyapper]

Oh, there's a comparison, and it's getting closer with every race, apparently. BB Beyer = 109 for Haskell with a FASTER closing eighth.....Curlin Beyer = 112 for Woodward.

BB beyered a 106 in the haskell. If BB were to improve and Curlin from the woodward showed up BB would not get embarrassed, but the best BB and Curlin from Dubai/BC would be no contest.

[cj]

Oh, there's a comparison, and it's getting closer with every race, apparently. BB Beyer = 109 for Haskell with a FASTER closing eighth.....Curlin Beyer = 112 for Woodward.



Surely a guy with Pace is his nom de plume realizes the pace in the Woodward was much faster. The final eight is of virtually no predictive value in future races on dirt.

[the little guy]

You are definitely correct...noms for the JCGC have not yet been taken....my bad....


I believe the JCGC is an Invitational now.

[Stevie Belmont]

I read in the Daily News yesterday that Dutrow wanted or would be interested in a match race with Curlin after the BC. I just think that is not the way to go. I don't like or care for a match race. A real race...yea

If they do match up...it makes all the sense in the world, to me anyway, to do it in the Classic. In a race. The richest american race. Jackson siad no to the BC Classic at first, and as of late has said it's under consideration.

If they are both fit and ready....That would be the race. And it would be the biggest, most anticpated Classic in Breeder's Cup history. And then throw in all the other conteders and Euro invaders. We have an event. A big event.

[joanied]

I read in the Daily News yesterday that Dutrow wanted or would be interested in a match race with Curlin after the BC. I just think that is not the way to go. I don't like or care for a match race. A real race...yea

If they do match up...it makes all the sense in the world, to me anyway, to do it in the Classic. In a race. The richest american race. Jackson siad no to the BC Classic at first, and as of late has said it's under consideration.

If they are both fit and ready....That would be the race. And it would be the biggest, most anticpated Classic in Breeder's Cup history. And then throw in all the other conteders and Euro invaders. We have an event. A big event.

I agree with you....but I won't hold my breath...at least not until each races next, then we may get a definitive answer from Jackson on Curlin and the BC Classic.
As for this talk of a match race...I beleive it IS all talk...no way would any half way intelligent owner or trainer agree to a match race (I would hope).

[ghostyapper]

If they are both fit and ready....That would be the race. And it would be the biggest, most anticpated Classic in Breeder's Cup history. And then throw in all the other conteders and Euro invaders. We have an event. A big event.

Bigger than easy goer-sunday silence? Not in my book plus throw in the synthetic track and no way. I think even last year's classic was bigger and more anticipated.

[Stevie Belmont]

It would draw the biggest non triple crown television ratings for a horse race.

That was a great rivalry as well...They banged heads on several times...

This is a 1 time, first ever match up


So in thats sense it's not only bigger, buts it's much bigger...From the ratings, purse money, internet and hype of everything revolving around these 2..

No internet back then, certainly not the way it is now, even if they did have it...

[PaceAdvantage]

Surely a guy with Pace is his nom de plume realizes the pace in the Woodward was much faster. The final eight is of virtually no predictive value in future races on dirt.Perhaps as I approach 40, my brain has gone on an early vacation.

Are you saying a horse such as Curlin (who most consider SUPERIOR to Big Brown), who sits 5-6 lengths behind a wicked early pace, should be expected to run his final eighth slower than an "inferior" horse (Big Brown) who races much closer to a more moderate pace going the same distance?

Let's forget for the moment the races in question were run at two different racetracks.

[Hosshead]

Let's forget for the moment the races in question were run at two different racetracks.
I would say 2 VERY different racetracks, and it would be hard for me to forget that, even for a moment.

[classhandicapper]

Perhaps as I approach 40, my brain has gone on an early vacation.

Are you saying a horse such as Curlin (who most consider SUPERIOR to Big Brown), who sits 5-6 lengths behind a wicked early pace, should be expected to run his final eighth slower than an "inferior" horse (Big Brown) who races much closer to a more moderate pace going the same distance?

Let's forget for the moment the races in question were run at two different racetracks.

I think the question can't be framed this way.

As numeric handicappers, I think you have to look at the actual pace figures and final time figures for both horses and begin the analysis there.

From a subjective/visual perspective, I have a tough time thinking that the 2nd place finisher is a total monster (though he may be much improved). I also have a tough time believing that Wanderin Boy ran a lifetime top (or close) without being loose. That's sort of what you would have to believe in order to believe Curlin ran a very good race. The second place finisher and Wanderin Boy were certainly used harder in that pace than Curlin and he didn't run right over former or totally crush the latter.

I think Curlin's race was probably a little better than it looked based on the final time figure and the final 1/8th, but nothing special.

[cj]

Perhaps as I approach 40, my brain has gone on an early vacation.

Are you saying a horse such as Curlin (who most consider SUPERIOR to Big Brown), who sits 5-6 lengths behind a wicked early pace, should be expected to run his final eighth slower than an "inferior" horse (Big Brown) who races much closer to a more moderate pace going the same distance?

Let's forget for the moment the races in question were run at two different racetracks.

Curlin still ran faster than Big Brown did if memory serves, even being 5 to 6 lengths off the lead. He was under a pretty good ride to maintain his position even that close to the lead.