Statistical question

[kid4rilla]

Not sure where this goes, but I know somebody in this area would know the answer.

Football team A plays the same team 8 times in a row and goes 6-2. Team B plays the same team 8 times and goes 4-4.

For the sake of this question, lets assume that the team they played was at exactly the same strength every game. The test was exactly the same each time they played the team.

Teams A and B play this week. What are some ideas to determine their respective chances of winning the matchup?

I guess you can split it down the middle and say that Team A had a 62.5% chance of winning. Any other approaches? My stats class was long ago :)

[cmoore]

It will be a TIE..:lol:

[kid4rilla]

so I can win ATS by betting B plus the pts. That was easy :lol:

[ryesteve]

Are you using a football analogy to represent something else, or are we really talking about football??

[raybo]

Depends on how both rivals compare to each other in strength, etc. If "A" played a weaker team than "B" or vice versa then you must take much more into account than just the 2 records against different teams.

[kid4rilla]

I plan on applying this to football, yes.

[rrbauer]

The only thing that you can say from the information provided is that Team A is a favorite to beat Team B. You can't say anything about points because no scores have been provided.

[skate]

you run into this every week end many times. If you refer to betting the game, the odds will go against the better record, no mater. Assume no injury.

So, with the info you gave, take the dog.

[ryesteve]

I plan on applying this to football, yes.Then all I can say is, "don't", for many reasons: your original premise will never be true ("exactly the same strength every game"); wins and losses mean nothing without the context of even the most basic supporting data such as "by how many points" and "where was the game played?"; and outcomes are often affected by how teams match up against one another, so common opponent data can be very misleading.

[kid4rilla]

I know, it doesn't serve much real world purpose. I was just trying to create a vanilla scenario to get some ideas of a possible statistical approach.

[rrbauer]

you run into this every week end many times. If you refer to betting the game, the odds will go against the better record, no mater. Assume no injury.

So, with the info you gave, take the dog.

So if the "dog" is getting 1/2 point how much will you wager?

[skate]

So if the "dog" is getting 1/2 point how much will you wager?

I'd wager the same as i did last game, under the same pretense.

And and and , i'm not saying in any way, that this alone would be a good play (forget it), what im doing is giving an answer to the question, trying to use only the question.

I should add, when they make the line (not that everyone does not know this) they look at "How will the better JUDGE the spread".

If you or i win, we had some luck in the game.

[rrbauer]

I'd wager the same as i did last game, under the same pretense.

And and and , i'm not saying in any way, that this alone would be a good play (forget it), what im doing is giving an answer to the question, trying to use only the question.

I should add, when they make the line (not that everyone does not know this) they look at "How will the better JUDGE the spread".

If you or i win, we had some luck in the game.

The point that I was trying to make was that taking 1/2 point and a dog (Team B) with the info provided is hardly a good bet (which, it appears that we agree on). Indeed, in that instance, I believe that taking the fav (Team A) is the best bet: You are getting what appears to be the best team and the only thing that you're giving up is the tie.

[skate]

I can see your point and you are correct.

My view is that the guy making the spread sees this also and would like for you to taske the fav.

To me, i dont care if it's 15 points or 1/2, that's just me...