Poll on "Tightner" Impact

[oddsmaven]

Curious on the group's view on tightners...do you expect improvement 2nd time out off of a layoff?

I've heard some say that the opposite should be expected because they'll be muscle sore.

I suppose it depends on the trainer and maybe the horse's age and so forth but feel free to add comments on any distinctions you may make...for the sake of voting in this poll I'll define a single situation...3 years olds & up going 6 furlongs NW1 allowance...one of the entries ran evenly beaten a few lengths 3 weeks ago after being on the bench for four months...do you expect him to improve, regress or run about the same this time out?

[so.cal.fan]

If your horse is a sprinter and goes back in a sprint......he'll likely improve, if he goes long, may need another race.
You bring up an interesting question, I hadn't thought of for a long time.
I'm wondering what this angle may mean on a synthetic surface???
I've been told that these polytracks tend to tire horses more and sometimes sore them up behind......so it would be interesting to see a computer study of this angle.
Another thing I would suggest before you bet back your above example is to watch a tape replay of his race....how hard was he running?
Did he come back and work within the next 12 or 13 days?
Trainer Ron Ellis once made the comment that a horse should come back with a work within less than 2 weeks or something is likely not right with the way he came out of the race. This is a general rule of course, because some horses just don't work often......they are given long gallops and breezing blowouts.....but I have checked this angle over the past 10 years and found it to be pretty accurate.

[plainolebill]

I voted for 'should run about the same...' but I think it depends a lot on the trainer. Some trainers have them cranked up when they come back and some don't, if they fire hard the first race then they might back up in the second.

[Tom]

Depends on what he did in the comeback race.
Two angles I use a lot are:

Third off a layoff, showed some in either race, back figures higher to run back to.

or this variation:

First race of a layoff was a hard race, and the second race back, the horse regressed. Now I like it to improve third back.

[raybo]

If the horse had a poor race after the layoff and his 2nd since layoff is a logical race for him (surface, distance, class, etc.), he'll, more often than not, improve from his layoff return race. Workouts are key for any horse that hasn't run in a while.

[HUSKER55]

I pay attention to workouts and a lot of attention to trainers. Linda Rice brings them ready to fire, for example. It also depends on the field and what the horse did his last outing. If it was a weak performance or a strong one. If there are too many horses like that in a race I will pass and find another.

For me it is a tough call.

husker55

:)

[Tom Barrister]

It depends on the trainer.

[Marlin]

Odds play a role. If short priced I tend to play the horse to bounce. If long odds I usually play the horse to improve. Of course, there are trainer angles that override this. In addition, as some have mentioned, if it was a "grueling" effort I tend to play bounce regardless.

[point given]

I wonder about the workout after the first race off the layoff. Know thy trianer would seem to apply here. A friend has a trainer that hides or fabricates the times. Some training tracks allow the trainer to write down the info themselves, other times the wo is missed entirely or mixed up by the clockers. This is one area of the game that needs to move into the present century.

[nobeyerspls]

It's gender specific. Fillies/mares run well fresh and the boys usually need a race. The exception are the sons of Meadowlake and Phone Trick.
Look at the 8th at Delaware yesterday. I told anyone who would listen that the three horse would buy them dinner. Wise guy buddy of mine noted that she hadn't raced since February. She wired the field at 8-1.
You can confirm this yourself by just paging through the past perfromances for fillies in the form.

[46zilzal]

Every horse is an individual: as such, they respond INDIVIDUALLY.

One couldn't evaluate how quickly a football or baseball player would get back into shape after a layoff with any more logic than you could do that to a horse.

[cj]

Every horse is an individual: as such, they respond INDIVIDUALLY.

One couldn't evaluate how quickly a football or baseball player would get back into shape after a layoff with any more logic than you could do that to a horse.

Then why do they always seem to know how long a football or baseball player will be out of action? Of course it isn't 100%, but it is usually a very good estimate.

[sammy the sage]

then I guess 46 has NEVER BET ON a horse coming off a lay-off :rolleyes:

[46zilzal]

then I guess 46 has NEVER BET ON a horse coming off a lay-off.

You would be incorrect.

[Robert Fischer]

usually i refer to a tightener as being a race at less than optimal distance, with the purpose of prepping that horse for a later race (if he's a stakes horse).

Like we know that so and so is a 11-12 furlong turf horse. He is pointed long-term to the bc turf, but today he is running in the PA Mile.

Or you might see a miler running in a 6.5 furlong allowance...

[nobeyerspls]

Every horse is an individual: as such, they respond INDIVIDUALLY.

One couldn't evaluate how quickly a football or baseball player would get back into shape after a layoff with any more logic than you could do that to a horse.

46- Didn't see you at Fort Erie yesterday. Stood at the winner's circle after the third and looked for a guy with the hat you described with no luck. Did you make it? If so you caught a truly remarkable event when the delayed the payoffs for the 4th race by fifteen minutes and then declared the race "no contest" because of a tote malfunction. They refunded all tickets but I'm guessing that half of them were on the ground.

[46zilzal]

46- Didn't see you at Fort Erie yesterday. Stood at the winner's circle after the third and looked for a guy with the hat you described with no luck. Did you make it? If so you caught a truly remarkable event when the delayed the payoffs for the 4th race by fifteen minutes and then declared the race "no contest" because of a tote malfunction. They refunded all tickets but I'm guessing that half of them were on the ground.

Wondered why there were no prices. I am in downtown Toronto and my ride, a good friend named J.L., called late in the morning to explain that, the previous evening, his mother had suddenly been rushed to the hospital. I spoke with him last night and it does not look promising as they suspect cancer. Crap, I had arranged with my company, Telephoto, to tour the studio up on the roof with a fellow Dion, who runs the show there. Next trip I guess.

[cj's dad]

usually i refer to a tightener as being a race at less than optimal distance, with the purpose of prepping that horse for a later race (if he's a stakes horse).

Like we know that so and so is a 11-12 furlong turf horse. He is pointed long-term to the bc turf, but today he is running in the PA Mile.

Or you might see a miler running in a 6.5 furlong allowance...

Agreed- I lay off those running at a distance other than their optimum. Shortening up? - may be sharpening speed. Stretching out? - building stamina.
Watch out next race at best distance - surface - conditions.

[Norm]

Sometimes you have to read the whole pattern. Let's say a $35k claimer loses a race by 25 or more lengths. This is followed by a 6 mo. layoff. Today he's coming back on 2 or 3 non-descript workouts and he's entered at $10k. It looks really suspicious. If he's "right", he's going to blow away today's field, BUT, what prompted the big loss and long layoff ? I like to pass these races. It's a coin toss as to whether he's ruined and will never run well again or the trainer is giving him a soft spot and is going to cash in. I think it matters how long the layoff was and what happened just before. I see 6 weeks as an R & R vacation. More than that and I'm wondering what's wrong with the horse. You often don't know if you are betting on a rested horse or an injured horse trying to make a come-back.

[raybo]

Sometimes you have to read the whole pattern. Let's say a $35k claimer loses a race by 25 or more lengths. This is followed by a 6 mo. layoff. Today he's coming back on 2 or 3 non-descript workouts and he's entered at $10k. It looks really suspicious. If he's "right", he's going to blow away today's field, BUT, what prompted the big loss and long layoff ? I like to pass these races. It's a coin toss as to whether he's ruined and will never run well again or the trainer is giving him a soft spot and is going to cash in. I think it matters how long the layoff was and what happened just before. I see 6 weeks as an R & R vacation. More than that and I'm wondering what's wrong with the horse. You often don't know if you are betting on a rested horse or an injured horse trying to make a come-back.

Well said!

I personally start with the oldest running line, looking at distance, surface, class, 2nd call pace, and final result. Then look at the number of days off until the next race and the differences in the above factors (with workouts put in the mix), trying to see what the horse needed and what the trainer gave him to work with. I continue on up to the most recent race in this manner, and much of the time, by the time I get to the most recent race, I know what the horse needs to be successful. Then I can look at today's race and opponents and determine, in my opinion, if the trainer has found the right spot, today, in order to give the horse what he needs to be successful.

The whole set of running lines, very often, must be considered in order to make an intelligent decision on current ability.

[so.cal.fan]

I usually throw out a layoff class drop.
One instance where I don't is in a maiden claiming race.
Once in a while you'll see a horse come out of a straight maiden where it was bet well......often it's a well bred one.
Off 9 months or more.......comes into the paddock in front wraps, clearly indicating a bow.......no covers on the FBs.....there for all the claiming trainers to see. Bet it. It will air.
If the same type of horse walks in with big outer wraps or boots covering the front wraps until after the "claim period" is over.....stay off it.
It's business.

[classhandicapper]

I think to a large extent this is a function of the trainer and the specific circumstances.

Some trainers tend to wind their horses up off a layoff and others don't.

Sometimes weather can interrupt a schedule and a trainer will ship in with a bunch of fresh but short horses. However, the next year he'll have them all ready.