Da'Tara is going to get loose

[tribecaagent]

Looking back on Tizbig's races, he's not a need the lead type. In fact, he's going to have to really push to even keep up with Da'Tara.

Due to the fact that LaPenta & Zito have three in here, no doubt Da'Tara will gun to the lead. When was the last time you've seen a Belmont winner used as a rabbit? Funny, right? Da'Tara has the speed, the stamina, and a lot of other things in his favor. Zito among them.

My choice at overlayed odds.

[Stevie Belmont]

I agree, he should go right out.

Tres Borrachos will be near the lead as well.

I agree, I would use Da'Tara on a pick 3 or 4...

[oddsmaven]

I think you'll get bigger odds than the 8:1 line...I'm not against betting a horse to set a soft pace in a long race but I won't do it if their form has tailed off like that...and the others are not a bunch of pluggers...aside from the cheap #4, I agree with Mr. S. Belmont that Tres Borrachos will be pushing and possibly Col. John & Cool Coal Man.

[lamboguy]

i like colonial john in this one, but i hope he and tres barachios get decapitated in this race. it will raise the price up on twostepsalsa in the pa derby next monday.

my plan is to bet colonial john tomorrow, if he loses triple up on two step next week.

[tribecaagent]

I think you'll get bigger odds than the 8:1 line...I'm not against betting a horse to set a soft pace in a long race but I won't do it if their form has tailed off like that...and the others are not a bunch of pluggers...aside from the cheap #4, I agree with Mr. S. Belmont that Tres Borrachos will be pushing and possibly Col. John & Cool Coal Man.

What tailed off form are you talking about? Da'Tara won the Belmont then got fried in a speed duel last time.

In my opinion, Da'Tara will bounce out of there and no other horse will drill him like last time.

[oddsmaven]

What tailed off form are you talking about? Da'Tara won the Belmont then got fried in a speed duel last time.

In my opinion, Da'Tara will bounce out of there and no other horse will drill him like last time.

I'm talking about stopping to last, beaten 24 lengths.

I understand your strategy here and at a big price, it's certainly not absurd - I personally expect him to run horribly again, as I don't like to dole out excuses to that degree, but everyone is entitled to their opinion...I don't know if the Belmont was a total fluke...maybe he stole it, maybe he was an improving horse that came to hand...though looking mighty cheap, at least he was formful going into the Belmont...I happen to put stock in the overall record with heavy emphasis on last, and last is pretty bad IMO.

[Bobzilla]

Da'Tara is a nice colt with some degree of talent as demonstrated in the Belmont Stakes. I think in the minds of some of us, myself included, Da'Tara was the beneficiary of a combination of factors at play back on Belmont day. Da'Tara was pretty much left alone while enjoying better relative footing on the path Garcia had him traveling. Without a doubt there existed a pronounced contour bias on that day. Erroneous tactics by more than one rider, not only KD, on the backs of his primary competitors that afternoon served Da'Tara's cause. In no way do I begrudge him his victory that day or his place in history. If he were ever left alone again while walking the dog and if the track condition and field composition allow, he could get dangerous again. But whatever might constitute the upper echalon of this somewhat murky group of three year olds I doubt at this time Da'Tara is a member.

If he should win today, I'll be happy as hell for him and his trainer, one of the good guys in racing and someone who "gets it!".

[Boris]

One difference today: Everyone thinks they can win. In June, they planned on a place check at best.

One thing the same today: The three year old crop sucks.

[Robert Fischer]

Da'Tara is terrible. He has little chance of being in the top 3. He has near zero chance of winning. He will probably never be 1st or 2nd again in a Grade3 or better race.


TOSS FROM EXACTA
-----------------------
Tres Borachos
da'tara
tale of ekati
amped
------------------------




:)

[kev]

Court Vision :12: runs a big race today.

[cj's dad]

Court Vision :12: runs a big race today.

Agree 100% :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

Relativity, that's what it's all about and several colts could be on or near the lead in this field of MOSTLY closers.

Still can't figure the overhype on Pyro: he is just not that good. If any of these gets on an easy lead, he will be closing but it will be into the clubhouse turn the second time around!

[RichieP]

:6:

[SylvanNash]

Truthfully, if this wasn't the Travers I'd throw this whole race out. My wagering site is down, so it might come to that.

I do like Da'Tara in this race. I think it'll come down to HR and Da'Tara - with Macho, Coal Man, and Col. John right there. Macho cut his eye last week, so that may be enough for me to go - 8,3,6.

I'd probably throw in a win bet on Tres Borrachos for kicks.

Either way, I personally wouldn't spend too much of my bankroll on this race.

[Bruddah]

One difference today: Everyone thinks they can win. In June, they planned on a place check at best.

One thing the same today: The three year old crop sucks.

I said the same thing before the Ky Derby and the powers to be, on this board, took me to task and demanded I prove how I came to my opinion. Which, I factually supported my opinion using Beyers numbers. When they could no longer argue against that, they said, well wait until the fall of the year to brand this years crop. It's not the fall of year. However, many have come over to my early assessment of this years 3yo talent.

Absolutely the worst crop of 3 yo's in a long long time. But, I am going to wait until the fall to say how I really feel about them. :eek:

[DJofSD]

I think that Tizbig will have the better of Da'Tara for at least the initial run past the grand stand. If Garcia lets DT settle, let Tizbig have the lead to be able to take DT off the rail I think DT could have a chance. But I'm having doubts due his last race with a last place finish 20+ lengths out of it.

So, looking at other possible winners, I'll guess there will be a pace battle then I'll bet Harlem Rocker or the three drunks to pick up the pieces.

[plainolebill]

:9: , :10:

[Indulto]

http://www.troyrecord.com/site/news.asp?brd=1170&dept_id=665217 (http://www.troyrecord.com/site/news.asp?brd=1170&dept_id=665217)
Travers will Rock: Harlem Rocker set for coming out party
By: Nick Kling, The Record 08/23/2008Recent conventional wisdom suggests the most likely winner of the Travers Stakes will be a horse which raced in the Jim Dandy. Saratoga Race Course is one of those tracks where horses profit from having a sharp performance over the surface.

Four of the past six Travers winners fit the mold. Medaglia d'Oro (2002), Flower Alley (2005), Bernardini (2006), and Street Sense (2007), won the Jim Dandy, then paired up in Saratoga's signature event. I believe that pattern will be broken this year. From this perspective, the Jim Dandy was a weak race populated by average horses.

… In what appears on paper to be an evenly-matched field, I'm expecting the 1¼-mile classic to become a coming out party for a new face. There are several candidates. In post position order, the non-Jim Dandy horses who could post a mild upset include Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Harlem Rocker, and Mambo In Seattle. Each has attributes which indicate a winning performance is very possible. …Nick Kling’s premise started me thinking about the old key race concept which I interpret as finding the previous race in which the winner of the current race participated.

I haven’t researched Travers history, but I do remember that both Madaglia D’Oro and Street Sense competed n the Derby which was also at 10f. In today’s race, there are five Derby refugees:
1 – Tale of Ekati
2 – Colonel John
6 – Cool Coal Man
11 – Pyro
12 –Court Vision

There are four Jim Dandy returnees:
1 – Tale of Ekati
3 – Da’ Tara
5 – Macho Again
11 – Pyro

#1 and #11 competed in both and, what do you know, #11 is the morning line favorite. If there had been no War Pass, Pyro would have been not only a G1 winner, but 2YO champion.

Tale of Ekati is a G1 winner beating War Pass in the process. #12 also participated in that race (the Wood). No Derby runner was a match for Big Brown, but of these five, Tale of Ekati had the best Beyer (93) which is also what he ran in his Wood victory over War Pass.

My play would be:
$1 EX: 1,11 WITH 1,2,3,5,6,11,12 (12)
$1 EXB: 1 WITH 11,12 (4)
$1 EX: 8,9 WITH 1,2,3,5,6,11,12 (14)

If #1 actually is 20-1 or better (which I doubt) then also:
$1 EX: 1 – ALL (11)
$ EX: ALL – 1 (11)

[Robert Fischer]

what a tough race to pick!

the more i think about it Blasi is a tough dude. Even with Pyro's deficiencies he should be right there if MachO doesn't run big.

Action/Value bets
$ Win on Macho Again :5:
$ Exacta :5::11: w/ :12:

[Robert Fischer]

Entertaining race:ThmbUp:

[tribecaagent]

There was NO WAY I was taking 4-1 on Colonel John, 5-1 on Mambo in Seattle, and 7/2 on Pyro.

Da'Tara was loose, but he just wasn't good enough.

Congratulations to everyone who had it. I didn't.

Thank you.......and good night.

[Tom]

Congrats to anyone who had Col John - I gave him 0 shot. I thought he was the most over-rated - under-achiever since Dollar Bill.
But my thoughts about this whole 3yo crop have not changes - pathetic.
Thank GOD most 3 yo races are over by now.

[toetoe]

I'm wit chew, T'agent. I loved Mambo, but I'm too greedy to like 5/1. THEN he loses the head bob from hell. :bang:

4/1 on CJ, from 8/1 m.l. ? :(

[Robert Fischer]

Liked about 6 horses for first or second and more for third!

Pyro didn't do terrible for maybe being a little tight?
i have yet to actually review the replay on pyro or macho again - classic Durkin; "macho uno had to check!":)

2 or 3 solid performances, but lacked the 1 or 2 star performances of a truly high quality race. Very exciting for what it was.

[Indulto]

http://www.troyrecord.com/site/news.asp?brd=1170&dept_id=665217 (http://www.troyrecord.com/site/news.asp?brd=1170&dept_id=665217)
Travers will Rock: Harlem Rocker set for coming out party
By: Nick Kling, The Record 08/23/2008Recent conventional wisdom suggests the most likely winner of the Travers Stakes will be a horse which raced in the Jim Dandy. Saratoga Race Course is one of those tracks where horses profit from having a sharp performance over the surface.

Four of the past six Travers winners fit the mold. Medaglia d'Oro (2002), Flower Alley (2005), Bernardini (2006), and Street Sense (2007), won the Jim Dandy, then paired up in Saratoga's signature event. I believe that pattern will be broken this year. From this perspective, the Jim Dandy was a weak race populated by average horses.

… In what appears on paper to be an evenly-matched field, I'm expecting the 1¼-mile classic to become a coming out party for a new face. There are several candidates. In post position order, the non-Jim Dandy horses who could post a mild upset include Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Harlem Rocker, and Mambo In Seattle. Each has attributes which indicate a winning performance is very possible. …Nick Kling’s premise started me thinking about the old key race concept which I interpret as finding the previous race in which the winner of the current race participated.

I haven’t researched Travers history, but I do remember that both Madaglia D’Oro and Street Sense competed n the Derby which was also at 10f. In today’s race, there are five Derby refugees:
1 – Tale of Ekati
2 – Colonel John
6 – Cool Coal Man
11 – Pyro
12 –Court Vision

There are four Jim Dandy returnees:
1 – Tale of Ekati
3 – Da’ Tara
5 – Macho Again
11 – Pyro

#1 and #11 competed in both and, what do you know, #11 is the morning line favorite. If there had been no War Pass, Pyro would have been not only a G1 winner, but 2YO champion.

Tale of Ekati is a G1 winner beating War Pass in the process. #12 also participated in that race (the Wood). No Derby runner was a match for Big Brown, but of these five, Tale of Ekati had the best Beyer (93) which is also what he ran in his Wood victory over War Pass.

My play would be:
$1 EX: 1,11 WITH 1,2,3,5,6,11,12 (12)
$1 EXB: 1 WITH 11,12 (4)
$1 EX: 8,9 WITH 1,2,3,5,6,11,12 (14)

If #1 actually is 20-1 or better (which I doubt) then also:
$1 EX: 1 – ALL (11)
$ EX: ALL – 1 (11)Well I myself had the wrong Derby participants, and the reverse of the photo, but is this guy Kling some kind of handicapper or what! Both sides of the photo for an $86.40 exacta. I hope this makes him a local hero.

The order of finish in the Super were betting choices 2-3-1-4 for a $351 TRI and $1,785 SUPER. The crowd did a pretty good job as well.

Tale of Ekati (20-1) ML went off at 8.70-1 as the 6th choice. Previous race winner Visionare had also run in the Derby, and had run against Pyro three times; finishing third both times Pyro won the race. At the time the Derby is run, its participants are considered the best of their division.

Colonel John may have just restored the SA Derby's place among Triple Crown preps, but I'm still convinced it's better to go from synthetic to dirt than the other way.

[NYPlayer]

This year's Travers is now history and quite unforgettable! l'll always remember the day that Colonel John bravely fought the savage Mambo in the epic Battle of Saratoga.

I salute jockey Garret Gomez, trainer Eoin Harty, Winstar Farms, and of course, the Colonel himself for a masterful win. Congratulations!

[JustRalph]

The top 4 closers made up the Super. That doesn't happen very often, but I haven't run it thru a database or anything?

I think it speaks to the quality of the field. Lots of horses stopping.

[PaceAdvantage]

I said the same thing before the Ky Derby and the powers to be, on this board, took me to task and demanded I prove how I came to my opinion. Which, I factually supported my opinion using Beyers numbers. When they could no longer argue against that, they said, well wait until the fall of the year to brand this years crop. It's not the fall of year. However, many have come over to my early assessment of this years 3yo talent.

Absolutely the worst crop of 3 yo's in a long long time. But, I am going to wait until the fall to say how I really feel about them. :eek:This is very unbecoming of you Bruddah. Do you feel you have not gotten all the glory that comes along with proclaiming "this year's crop of 3yos is terrible!"

It seems to me that we hear this EVERY YEAR! Most years, the prediction is wrong. This year, you may happen to be right. Congrats!

And for the record, nobody demanded anything. I simply asked you a question. Would you like me to reproduce the post?

OK, here it is....here is my DEMANDING post to you:

Perhaps Bruddah could enlighten us as to exactly how he came to this conclusion at this point in time, and how he compares this year's crop to last year's crop (and please compare late April 2007 to late April 2008....no hindsight bias allowed).Sounds like a polite request to me...but if you wish to paint our exchange with a biased brush, by all means, continue with your antics.

[eastie]

was alive in the pick 4, no Colonel John though.:(. the kid on the 8 got nervous when mambo went by him up the backside and he moved a little prematurely. If he kept his cool, he would have won.

[Imriledup]

Nice job putting a horse off a 49 length loss in against Rachel and other great horses. Da Tara didn't deserve that.

[castaway01]

Nice job putting a horse off a 49 length loss in against Rachel and other great horses. Da Tara didn't deserve that.

He was just there to duel her---he failed.

[slew101]

Anyone who saw Da Tara's race in early August knew he had no business being entered in an allowance race, much less a Grade 1 with that pace. Zito is lucky the horse didn't break down. Two races in a row he has been eased. What's next, Nick? A grass start?

I always thought Zito received a pass for overmatching his horses in big races where Wayne Lukas was ripped for doing the same thing for many years. I know the owners are probably calling the shots but Zito is a big enough trainer to stop that.

Didn't Bailey jump off a Zito horse at the gate a couple years back and they scratched him, only to see Zito enter him a week later and the horse was eased?

Nice job putting a horse off a 49 length loss in against Rachel and other great horses. Da Tara didn't deserve that.

[PaceAdvantage]

Nice job putting a horse off a 49 length loss in against Rachel and other great horses. Da Tara didn't deserve that.Lukas is the only one who ever took shit for those kinds of moves.

Everyone else gets a pass.

Or, what Slew101 just said...:lol:

[Tom]

I think Nick is starting to get that attention he deserves. :rolleyes:

[Imriledup]

I agree what you are saying, if Da Tara broke down and was euthanized after this race no one would have noticed or said anything. Lukas would have been a different story. DWL is the poster boy for this type of stuff.

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree what you are saying, if Da Tara broke down and was euthanized after this race no one would have noticed or said anything.Not what *I* was saying...of course people would have noticed if the most awful DRASTIC outcome occurred.

But Lukas took lots of shit for lots of horses that never broke down or were injured....simply because people bought into the reputation that was unfairly hung on him by media and fans while other trainers were allowed to skate on by free from scrutiny when they would regularly run horses (seemingly) way over their heads.

[Imriledup]

Not what *I* was saying...of course people would have noticed if the most awful DRASTIC outcome occurred.

But Lukas took lots of shit for lots of horses that never broke down or were injured....simply because people bought into the reputation that was unfairly hung on him by media and fans while other trainers were allowed to skate on by free from scrutiny when they would regularly run horses (seemingly) way over their heads.

I didn't say that's what you said. I said i agreed with what you said and then added my own comment afterward.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Well, Zito has always taken shots at big races that don't always seem logical. How did Da"Tara win the Belmont in the first place? So the bashing can begin again today. Eight days after Our Edge was eased in the Travers when one of his shoes fell off (and lots of comments about the late shoe announcment) and he grabbed 2 quarters in the race, he ran in the Pennsylvania Derby today, a G-II worth $1M. For some reason the owners didn't object. I have follwed Zito's training and race patterns for a long time now and IMO he is a very good horseman who knows his horses as well as any trainer on the track. I do believe that if he saw anything in Da'Tara during the week after his August race that he would never have enterred him at all.

[Imriledup]

Well, Zito has always taken shots at big races that don't always seem logical. How did Da"Tara win the Belmont in the first place? So the bashing can begin again today. Eight days after Our Edge was eased in the Travers when one of his shoes fell off (and lots of comments about the late shoe announcment) and he grabbed 2 quarters in the race, he ran in the Pennsylvania Derby today, a G-II worth $1M. For some reason the owners didn't object. I have follwed Zito's training and race patterns for a long time now and IMO he is a very good horseman who knows his horses as well as any trainer on the track. I do believe that if he saw anything in Da'Tara during the week after his August race that he would never have enterred him at all.

He lost by 49 lengths and ran a 21 beyer fig, don't you think a horse off such a disasterous performance should run in a weaker race to get his 'form' back?

[PaceAdvantage]

I do believe that if he saw anything in Da'Tara during the week after his August race that he would never have enterred him at all.But if Lukas back in the day WOULD have seen something during that week, he would have went ahead and entered him anyway??????

Is that what the Lukas bashers believe (not saying you are one...just using your example)?