New Trainer for Horse

[PMANN1]

After being burned a few times this year on a certain type of longshot horse who beat my picks I have a question for the board.
I've seen more horses win at 15-1,30-1 and higher than I can remember that have switched hands from one trainer to another (excluding claims) The horses are jumping up big in speed ratings to beat the field. Usually they are going up in class and have had a short lay-off although some are dropping slightly from their last couple of races. The best plays are by non big name trainers with lower win percentages (12% or less). I assume that they are using something during the lay-off or maybe they just have good inside information on what will make the horse go (ha, ha). The lay-offs aren't very long, usually less than 60 days. I haven't found a way to profit but now always include them on top of my picks as a saver. You can't handicap them on trainer stats (very low hit rates), speed or class.
Am I just playing bank to these trainers in situations like this?Anyone have any insight into this issue? A lot of horse switch hands and if I have to keep playing into more blind situations like this it'll greatly affect my betting.

[alysheba88]

Are you talking about shippers? I know thats a common reason for horses changing trainers. The owner may want the horse running at another track. Shippers from "minor league" to big league tracks are often overlooked.

The form has stats on first time with trainer I believe in the pp's. I could be wrong but I seem to remember seeing (understand you aren't talking about first off claim).

[pic6vic]

PMANN

This is my biggest angle. The key most of the time is the previous trainer. If it's a top trainer I pass. Your low pct trainers will not improve a horse. Your 10 pct trainers will. The other key is the layoff. I use about 25 days or more. usually between 1 month to 6 months. Form does not matter.

If it is going from a low percentage to an average trainer it is worth looking into.

Good luck

[Whirlaway]

I ran a query on all horses switching trainers ( either by claim or privite switch) over the last four months or so.

# of Horses: 2355
# of Winners: 395
Win %: 16.77%
Average Odds: 4.53 - 1
ROI: -7.3%

That's a very good ROI for a one factor sample. Best rusults were maidens which showed a 13% flat bet profit. The sample was small though (199 horses), so I wouldn't, so to speak, take it to the bank.

All horses at odds >10-1 showed a 9% profit, but the win percentage was only 5.4%

All horses at odds <10-1 showed a 13.5% loss with a 21% win percentage.

[PMANN1]

Thanks for the query. I guess that supports what I'm seeing.
I've only bet two of them that've lost but I'll continue to follow it.
The low hit rate hurts so you have to have deep pockets but I'll include the high priced ones in all gimmicks. One of the best signs I've seen is a top jockey getting on the horse for an obscure trainer in situations like this. It's surprising the odds you can get even with a top jock up.
Now if I can narrow them down. A decent trainer helps, doing something for the first time (turf, route), moving up in class, shipper....
Any stats on horses changing from a trainer 7% or lower to 10%or higher? 14% or higher?
I just bought a mac and filemaker pro to try to learn how to use a database so I can start to keep a database and run queries based on observations.
Thanks for the insights from all.

[takeout]

Originally posted by PMANN1
I've seen more horses win at 15-1,30-1 and higher than I can remember that have switched hands from one trainer to another
Is the owner changing also or just the trainer? There used to be the occasional longshot from a private sale but I have also noticed a couple where the owner did not change.

I think the best thing ever added to the pps was the "Claim" and "Previously trained by" information. I'm confounded as to why they don't put the previous owner with the "Previously trained bys" like they do with the "Claims". It would be nice to know with the shippers, as well as the locals, whether they actually changed ownership or not.