Long time better Need more help

[kipdog99]

Hey can anyone help with devising a thery where as i don't bet every race only ones that stand out.

ok easier said but i mean one where by u get ahorse 2nd or 3rd on a layoff, improving and not yet peaked, great jockey or sticks, and then u guys come in and tell me what else i should look for?

[dav4463]

Handicap every race, check your results. See if you are better in one type of race. Break it down to Maiden Claimers, Md Sp Wt, low-level claimers, higher claimers, Allowance, etc. Then divide by routes vs. sprints and turf or dirt. Find out what you are best at and then concentrate on those races only.

[Boris]

WIN BETS ONLY. No trick bets, no place or show. When it comes down to having a horse win a race to cash a ticket, you will be more selective. If you are betting $2, for example, a race currently, add the money not bet in a race to the next race you will place a win bet on. I.E. if you pass the first 3 races, make the bet $8 to win in the 4th. Kinda a reward for "passin the action". After you get a grip on what you are doing, get to a more reasonable money strategy. You'll be bored out of your mind for a while, but you will learn the benefits of being selective.

[alysheba88]

Make an odds line. Bet when you have an edge. Pass when you don't.

[kipdog99]

explain whats exactlyis an odds line?

[andicap]

Here's a good longshot angle that the Ragozin sheets people use.

Find a 3 yr old or lightly raced 4 yr old who 3-8 weeks ago surpassed his prior top speed rating. The higher the "top" the more time the horse will need before improving. IN other words, if the prior best was a 70 Beyer and on March 1, a 3 yr old runs a 72, he should improving markedly sometime within 3-5 weeks. Give him 2 tries or so to do so. It's not an exact science.( It could be 8 weeks). But if the horse runs a 90 on March 1, that COULD (again, not necessarily -- we're talking probabilities here) set the horse back for a while.

Ragozin's book "Odds Must be Crazy" taught me a lot about form cycles even tho I don't use the sheets.

[kipdog99]

That looks like good advice. ok so if a lightly raced 3 or 4 year old come up with a better buyer than best ever. then bet him over the next 3-8 weeks but watch out for a bounce is this right?

[kipdog99]

one other thing i am a soso handicaper still young (23) but when someone tells me they like a horse i ask why? then they let me know and usually off that I either really like or dislike a horse cause i agree or dis.

I need more help finding my like or dislike for a horse

[alysheba88]

Kip Dog,

Its basically putting you in the role of oddsmaker, instead of the morning line guy (Mark Cramer has good stuff on this, as does Steve Fierro if you are looking for reading material).

There are a variety of ways of doing it (making a full line on all the contenders, or just the ones you are looking to play). What it does is it forces you to be disciplined and play only those horses you "love".

For example, if you like horse A but see some value on B and C what do you do? If you make an odds line the decision can be automatic. You have to set some price on which you like horse A.

You cant just bet him/her regardless or price,, there has to be some quantifiying of his chances. So lets say you like Horse A and will bet him at 3-1 or higher. If he is higher than your odds with a few minutes to post, then thats your play. If he is lower than you pass, or play one of your other contenders assuming they meet your odds criteria. In the same example, you may like horse A at 3-1 or higher but horse B at 9-2. If with two minutes to go horse A is 8-5 and Horse B is 6-1, then horse B is your play.

I barely touched the surface. If you aren't comfortable making a full line on all the horses (And it can be tough), at least set a criteria for the horse you love. And stick to it. Say I will play this horse at 3-1 or better, but if he is lower I will pass the race. Sure you will gnash your teeth once in a while for "missing" a winner, but in the long run its a sound strategy.

Good luck!

[kipdog99]

ok i understand oddsline for 1 2 or even 3 horses the whole feild MAY BE TOUGH WHAT IS A GOOD NUMBER NOT OT GO BELOW?



WHEN RACING IS ON LIVE DO U GUYS MEET IN THE WAR ROOM? OR ANY CHAT PLACES?

WOULD LOVE TO TALK WHEN RACING IS ON THATS WHAT DOES IT FOR ME

SEE IF PEOPLE TELL ME THEY LIKE A HORSE FOR REASON A AND I AGREE THEN I BET AN D IF THEY SAY THE LIKE IT FOR REASON B AND I DO NOT LIKE IT THEN I PASS BUT PEOPLE EXPLAINING WHY HELPS ME MUCH MUCH MORE?

[Whitehos]

Hey DOG
Keep checking the War Room Fri nite, all day Sat and Sat Nite. If you don't learn anything you will a least see how dumb people like me are after a lifetime of horses.

[hurrikane]

kip,
you really should get Fierros book. It really is the best book on betting into an odds line I have read...

[GR1@HTR]

Or take Coach's advice from ESPN and get some software. Actaully Fierros book will help you with what you want to accomplish.