HARLEM ROCKER

[tribecaagent]

The Travers probables are:

Acai
Colonel John
Cool Coal Man
Court Vision
Da'Tara
Macho Again
Tale of Ekati
Tres Borrachos
Mambo in Seattle
Harlem Rocker

What price is Harlem Rocker against this bunch?

[cj]

10-1, at least he should be.

[Yorker]

10-1, at least he should be.

That's silly talk. No way he'll be higher than 4-1 against this group.

[menifee]

Hasn't lost on dirt. Still think that race against J Be K was ultra impressive. 7/2 in Travers. Favorite or co-favorite.

[Robert Fischer]

yea, I wouldn't bet him , but he should be the publics 1st or 2nd choice.
He is a popular horse.

Mambo in Seattle has a little promise. He was pretty game his last two...

Had Macho Again as top 3 in the preakness, then thought he was clearly 2nd choice in the Belmont?? but I guess gomez got caught riding a different race with the unexpected turn of events, clearly the best in his last over the pyro.

Acai is trained by Richard Dutrow. Great price on him last time.:jump:
also, Trained by Dutrow.

[FlyinLate]

4-1 Morning Line as the Second Choice.
Pyro is listed as Morning Line favorite at 7/2.
http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/46673.htm?id=46673&source=rss

Colonel John is 8-1, Tale of Ekati is 20-1 :eek: , and Macho Again is 6-1.
I have a feeling these lines will fluctuate quite a bit.

[tribecaagent]

How the heck is Mambo Seattle 5-1?

Look, he can win, but 5-1 is 16.6%. My feeling is he's more like 10% which is 9-1, and if you're looking for a 50% overlay, 15-1 is a fair price.

He's on the cover of tomorrow's Racing Form so it looks as if he's getting some attention. At that price, he's a toss for me.

[tribecaagent]

You know, the more I look at it, this morning line is WAY OFF.

You have the Wood Memorial (GI) winner: Tale of Ekati - 20-1
Santa Anita Derby (GI) winner: Colonel John - 8-1
Belmont Stakes (GI) winner: Da'Tara - 8-1

What's wrong with this picture?

Not saying I like these fellas, but as always, it's a percentage game.

[Robert Fischer]

:confused: Morning Lines maker did too much capping and turned the value
uʍop ǝpısdn ?

[tribecaagent]

Robert,

I consider myself a gambler first and a handicapper second. As much as I like Harlem Rocker, he's a toss at 4-1. Pyro is a toss at 7-2, assuming these prices stay the way they are now, which I doubt.

How is it, the Jim Dandy winner is 6-1? Granted, he had a perfect set-up in the Jim Dandy, but he figures to get the same set-up again. 6-1 is generous.

[classhandicapper]

It looked like he was going to develop into one of the leaders of the division with his fast, but easy trip win in the Withers. The loss on synthetic was excusable, but his next start wasn't particularly impressive or fast. At this point he's got more of a reputation than actual accomplishments, but I'd still hold out a possibility he's going to develop into a very good horse, maybe starting this Saturday.

[tribecaagent]

It looked like he was going to develop into one of the leaders of the division with his fast, but easy trip win in the Withers. The loss on synthetic was excusable, but his next start wasn't particularly impressive or fast. At this point he's got more of a reputation than actual accomplishments, but I'd still hold out a possibility he's going to develop into a very good horse, maybe starting this Saturday.

Class,

I'd be very careful as far as the "easy trip" win in the Withers. Granted, he only beat three others. However, he ran down a tough J be K (one of the choices in Saturday's King's Bishop) on a strip I considered kind to horses on the front end.

Harlem Rocker is a serious racehorse, I just don't think he's worth 4-1 to win this race. On the other hand, I feel this morning line is seriously off, so if he's 6,7,8-1 he's worth a bet.

[classhandicapper]

Class,

I'd be very careful as far as the "easy trip" win in the Withers. Granted, he only beat three others. However, he ran down a tough J be K (one of the choices in Saturday's King's Bishop) on a strip I considered kind to horses on the front end.

Harlem Rocker is a serious racehorse, I just don't think he's worth 4-1 to win this race. On the other hand, I feel this morning line is seriously off, so if he's 6,7,8-1 he's worth a bet.

Yes, he did run down a very talented horse. But I wonder if 8F was really the best distance for J Be K or whether he's going to be able to save ground and swing out so easily into the stretch like he did that day in a 4 horse field.

[tribecaagent]

Yes, he did run down a very talented horse. But I wonder if 8F was really the best distance for J Be K or whether he's going to be able to save ground and swing out so easily into the stretch like he did that day in a 4 horse field.

I agree with you and I'm going to give J be K the benefit of the doubt on a speed favoring strip. The question is: is Harlem Rocker at his best going 1 1/4 mile? Can't answer that.

I ask you this. Was Ghostzapper at his best going 1 1/4 miles in August of his three year old year?

Bottom line: 4-1, even 6-1 is not enough on Harlem Rocker to win this race.

[Robert Fischer]

Robert,

I consider myself a gambler first and a handicapper second. As much as I like Harlem Rocker, he's a toss at 4-1. Pyro is a toss at 7-2, assuming these prices stay the way they are now, which I doubt.

How is it, the Jim Dandy winner is 6-1? Granted, he had a perfect set-up in the Jim Dandy, but he figures to get the same set-up again. 6-1 is generous.

yea.
Macho Again is the card they are trying to deal you here.

I will get more serious thurs. or friday, but early thoughts are that Pyro doesn't want 10 furlongs...
Asmussen and Blasi are always scary about move-ups but I think he is a/the play against here.

Acai is scratched which makes things easier at least for me...

[tribecaagent]

Robert,


I dislike Pyro in here and if he wins, I lose. However, I can see it now, on Saturday's ESPN show they will talk about Parker Buckley and how this win is dedicated to him.

So be it. 7-2, 4-1 on Pyro is not for me.

[menifee]

Pyro is a complete toss. He does not want that distance. The real value in this race could come from Tale of Ekati and Colonel John.

[sandpit]

Pyro is a complete toss. He does not want that distance. The real value in this race could come from Tale of Ekati and Colonel John.

Agree 100%..."Never brag" Tagg is touting his horse quite a bit and if Colonel John takes to the track, he should have a say in it (Note - remember that prior to the KY Derby Harty said he was seriously considering scratching if the track was sloppy, so if Saratoga gets one of their downpours Saturday, Colonel John might be a bet against.)

I echo all the anti-Pyro sentiment...if Big Brown's wins came against sub-par competition, Asmussen's colt has beaten absolutely nothing.

[menifee]

Agree 100%..."Never brag" Tagg is touting his horse quite a bit and if Colonel John takes to the track, he should have a say in it (Note - remember that prior to the KY Derby Harty said he was seriously considering scratching if the track was sloppy, so if Saratoga gets one of their downpours Saturday, Colonel John might be a bet against.)

I echo all the anti-Pyro sentiment...if Big Brown's wins came against sub-par competition, Asmussen's colt has beaten absolutely nothing.

Tale of Ekati will represent some value, but I'm also concerned about whether he wants a 1 mile and 1/4. It is also interesting that the three Tiznows drew right next to each other. I think D'Tara gets cooked again.


The more I look at this race I kind of like Mambo in Seattle. I think you will get at least 6-1. I know he is steppng up in class. But he ran a better time than those horses in the Jim Dandy on the same day. He beat ok older horses two starts back. He seems to be just improving. I would key him in the tri. 9 with 1,2,5,8,10. Key him in first and second.

[FlyinLate]

Agree 100%..."Never brag" Tagg is touting his horse quite a bit and if Colonel John takes to the track, he should have a say in it (Note - remember that prior to the KY Derby Harty said he was seriously considering scratching if the track was sloppy, so if Saratoga gets one of their downpours Saturday, Colonel John might be a bet against.)

I echo all the anti-Pyro sentiment...if Big Brown's wins came against sub-par competition, Asmussen's colt has beaten absolutely nothing.

I'm all for ToE here myself. I think Prado's move on him in the last was too early. Pace wise, track wise, distance wise, it all sets up for him.

Win/Place on him along w/ an exacta box with Harlem Rocker and Colonel John (8-1? Jesus).

[Stevie Belmont]

10/1 on Rocker? He will be the second choice if not the fav by post time. Between 5/2 and 4/1

Tale Of Ekati has been hyped in just about every race he has been in and has done little, and he has never run a real fast race. His Wood win was slow. Not a race in his history that indicates he can win this. He would have to jump foward big time. Can he? Maybe, maybe not. I'm not counting on it. Underneath horse maybe.

[Bruddah]

Seems to me it comes down to the classic weight and distance. Who can handle it? As of this writing, I am leaning towards Tale of Ekati and Harlem Rocker.

Unless the Beyer Boys are just giving away numbers for the winner of this race, the winner won't run better than a 95 Beyer. (JMHHO) :ThmbUp:

[SylvanNash]

10/1 on Rocker? He will be the second choice if not the fav by post time. Between 5/2 and 4/1

Tale Of Ekati has been hyped in just about every race he has been in and has done little, and he has never run a real fast race. His Wood win was slow. Not a race in his history that indicates he can win this. He would have to jump foward big time. Can he? Maybe, maybe not. I'm not counting on it. Underneath horse maybe.

I agree - TOE has been hyped all year, and fortunately I've stayed away. I will continue to do so in this race. TOE may show some brilliance in the Travers, but I'm not betting on it.

I'm still trying to get my head around this race, but like Macho. One of my favorite horses this year - kind of flies under the radar. I actually like Da'Tara too - if they don't burn him up early like the Dandy.

[Robert Fischer]

Travers has something for everyone, and the card as a whole is very exciting.

[oddsmaven]

My slight preference to win is Macho Again...I see a number of comments questioning the line but as usual this guy did a solid job....my projections of what odds we'll see are close to his:

He has Pyro favored and I expect him to be 5:2 (would've been even lower with a better draw)...he's popular as the beaten favorite & they'll bet that close gaining 2nd stretching out.

Harlem Rocker is popular too but I'd push him up to 7:2 after that poor Beyer in Canada...it appears that he did not win in hand against lower class and that 106 was back in April.

Macho Again - 9:2...won JD but only took 8:1 action, so they don't love him and the narrow win will keep some money off him, though I think he will get a bit more than the ML.

Mambo 5:1 beat cheaper but earned a 104 so will get respect...one horse managed to stay with him in last or he would have been even more dangerous if he could have come in off a more convincing win.

Colonel John - 6 or 7:1 hard to gauge dirt ability...last disappointing, but not terrible & needed the race.

The others are longshots...Da'tara went way off form in last...Tres Borrachos might have a chance but I gather he's not as good off synthetic...Cool Coal Man & Ekati are lackluster to begin with & neither are coming off of good tries...Court Vision may not mind switching back to dirt but has to step it up quite a bit after losing vs weaker.

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

Harlem Rocker is a toss; looks like Macho Again and Pyro to do battle again, along with Cool Coal Man.

[46zilzal]

The Majority of this field, the competitive ones, project late moves. Harlem Rocker and Macho Again COULD, very easily, run away from the pack as early as the track has been running so far.
Harlem Rocker's ONLY poor performance is well documented as being completely due to surface at Woodbine.

[FlyinLate]

Harlem Rocker's ONLY poor performance is well documented as being completely due to surface at Woodbine.

Exactly. I don't see how people are tossing Harlem Rocker at 4/1. Just because of one poor synthetic race? He may not be my top play but leaving him out of the gimmicks would be absolutely foolish imo.

[TommyCh]

Look at TOE's performances from the 1 post.

Does Jerkens have something up his sleeve with Tizbig?

Pyro has three strikes against him: 1. Post position 2. Who has he really beaten? 3. He'll take a lot of money being a "name" horse, which I think is all he is. (Maybe that last one is not an actual strike.) I think Pyro is pretty much a bet-against.

Does the Cool Coal Man-Mineshaft lineage seal it for him?

Col. John? Has also WORKED on synthetic for this. Will have to show me on dirt.

Leparoux really seems to know his horse.

Da' Tara's style kills him in this race, unless Zito knows something we don't. Garcia will do what he can.

Winner: Mambo
Longshot: Tyler and Tres
Will be a monster winner or a monster flop: Harlem (I'll probably reluctantly use him in exotics.)

[tribecaagent]

Exactly. I don't see how people are tossing Harlem Rocker at 4/1. Just because of one poor synthetic race? He may not be my top play but leaving him out of the gimmicks would be absolutely foolish imo.

You echoed my thoughts when you said "he may not be my top play". The reason I started this thread was to see how this board felt about Harlem Rocker's price, before the morning line was put up. I've been a big fan of this horse since the Withers. Pletcher & Velazquez are having a superb meet. It makes sense for this horse to run well in here. I believe HR's chances are about 20% which translates to 4-1 (far from an overlay). I'm probably not going to toss HR (unless he's grossly overbet, i.e. 5-2), but just like every other race, we need to go shopping. Let's face it, there are others in here that have just as good (maybe better) a resume as HR and they'll be higher prices.

Let me throw this out there. What if either Macho Again or Colonel John drift up to the 8,9-1 range? I would be forced to key off one of these guys just because of price.

[toetoe]

Agentbelowcanal (hey, subagent ... get it ?),

The Grade I's won by those three are very suspect. I know the others are not necessarily accomplished, but it's still a real grab bag. I'm going out on a limb to pick Mambo in Seattle, with Robby (GULP ! :eek: ) Albarado. I think he will drift far above his 5/1 line, making him a reasonable stab.

[tribecaagent]

Agentbelowcanal (hey, subagent ... get it ?),

The Grade I's won by those three are very suspect. I know the others are not necessarily accomplished, but it's still a real grab bag. I'm going out on a limb to pick Mambo in Seattle, with Robby (GULP ! :eek: ) Albarado. I think he will drift far above his 5/1 line, making him a reasonable stab.

Hi Toe,

This whole field has run "suspect" races and I agree with you that the race is a grab bag. This is exactly why taking ANY horse in here at 5-1 is ffy, at best. I must ask you. What do you think is a fair price on Mambo in Seattle?

[toetoe]

I'll say 7/1. Now, if I were this rigorous about every race, I might make some money. :D That's 7/1 on the horse I LIKE.

[Robert Fischer]

tough race to figure.
Pyro is coming from that big barn. I want to toss him but they are the best.
Macho has a stamina edge here. Could be his coming out party.
I don't like Harlem Rocker to even hit the exacta.
Mambo In Seattle will have to prove he is more than a hard hitting allowance colt.
Court Vision just might substitute for one of the favorites in the exacta or trifecta - wish Mott Barn wasn't ICE COLD

[oddsmaven]

Harlem Rocker can certainly win here, but I'm not going to grant him as sterling a record as some...undefeated on dirt yes, but doesn't anyone feel he was a sharper horse in the spring then he is now? Not sure what the quality of that restricted long race at FE was, but it couldn't have been much...it appears he struggled a bit to win, so that concerns me.

Pyro seemed to hang in the Jim Dandy and I don't trust him though he is one to beat...he will get bet early and often...Colonel John is hard to gauge but I think he'll see some early money...I expect late play on Macho Again...he certainly won't shoot up...Mambo will probably open well & drift slightly...the pattern on Rocker is tough to say...he may not open up as the second choice off his slow Beyer, but on the other hand he is a popular horse, so he will either open 2nd and hold or come down to be second choice by post time.

[Ron]

I've been a big fan of this horse since the Withers. Pletcher & Velazquez are having a superb meet. It makes sense for this horse to run well in here.

JV has never ridden HR.

[tribecaagent]

JV has never ridden HR.

You're right. My mistake.

Pletcher is the trainer, right?

[FormalGold1]

Box the Macho Uno colts:

Harlem Rocker and Macho Again !

[Stevie Belmont]

Colonel John is the biggest wild card in the race....Throw out his Kentucky Derby and give him another shot on dirt? In pick plays thats the way to go, only because we know what some of the others can do on dirt. He is at least a user.

Da'Tara the Belmont Stakes winner will try to get loose on the lead again and take them all the way. He might have some company with Tizbig and Tres Barrachos. If he does get alone, watch out. A user in pick plays..

Some of the others look to be to slow...Court Vison, Cool Coal Man...if they win, I lose. Won't use them peroid.

Macho Again and Pyro ran 1-2 in the Jim Dandy and thats enough to use on a pick ticket, although niether inspire great confidence. Macho ran second to BB in the Preakness.

This leads me to my top pick for the Travers and it's Harlem Rocker. A fresh new face that was pointed to this race after his win in Fort Erie. A winner at 1 3/16. I did not see the race however and thats frustrates me. However I did see his other races. His Withers was one of three dominating races I have seen this year. He took control and galloped out past the wire. BB people even threw some praise his way, and they don't throw praise arounf often, unless it's Big Brown. Harlem Rocker comes in with a string of solid works and looks fit. Stronach would love to see his homebred win.

Harlem Rocker Top Pick

Horse to use in pick bets....

Macho Again
Pyro
Da'Tara
Colonel John...

[Stevie Belmont]

I got cute and got beat...

Did 2 picks 3's

One pick three had Colonel John and Shakis....Singaled J Be K...

Shakis was on both, but the other ticket had Visionaire, Kodiak Kowboy and J Be K

I loved Shakis today and I still went 6 deep...

And I singaled Rocker on a ticket, the I used 3 horses in the Kings Bishop.....Visonaire, J Be K and the entry...

I should have made one big ticket, every horse that won, I liked...Almost feel as If I was robbed, but it's my f up....

Colonel John was ranked 2nd in ThoroughbredZones derby 12...

Visionaire was a solid closer in a race packed with speed..

Why I didnt make one ticket, I don't know...

To hell with the mulitple tickets..

I did not even play Harlem Rocker to win....I had him live into the final leg, I was worried, I felt at least 3 or 4 others could win...actually I did not bet Visionaire or Shakis to win either, and they paid 15 each...

Colonel John

I said Im gonn toss the Derby and use him, you can't say he really does not like dirt...

I used 4 in the Travers

Harlem Rocker
Colonel John
Pyro
Macho Again

[cj]

Harlem Rocker ran better than I expected him to do, but was still basically a non factor and an underlay at 5 to 1, a tick away from 6.