MNR- 8/19/2008

[MitchS]

I made a few changes to the sheet that I'm looking at tonight for the MNR races. I'll be checking in with scratches and giving a short race analysis before each race runs in case anyone wants to join in a heated debate :D

SR- Speed rating
TR- Turf/late pace
RP- Race pressure the DRF way.. Personally I like Randy Giles Pace Appraiser programs way of computing the running styles so compairing the DRF and PA methods gives a nice compairative look.

Everything else is the same from yesterdays post...

Good luck at MNR tonight and will check in before post time at the 1st.

Mitch

[MitchS]

Well I can't seem to upload the file today. Says file too large. I can't figure out how to post the figs directly in this thread. If someone knows how to do it let me know. I'm copying and pasting from XL?

[MitchS]

PN FairV PN FairV PN FairV
10 1 10 2 9 2
7 7 7 4 10 5
9 24 9 9 7 6
8 27 3 14 2 28
3 30 8 41 1 28
6 94 6 80 8 32
4 99 4 85 6 33
2 232 1 85 3 42
5 291 2 248 4 98
1 291 5 248 5 98

[MitchS]

SR TR Q/S RP PN FairV PN FairV PN FairV
55 64 3 - P 0 X 0 10 1 10 2 9 2
59 39 2 - S 0 X 0 7 7 7 4 10 5
68 77 2 - S 0 X 0 9 24 9 9 7 6
43 54 2 - E 0 X 0 8 27 3 14 2 28
52 45 4 - NA 0 X 0 3 30 8 41 1 28
55 65 1 - S 0 X 0 6 94 6 80 8 32
0 0 0 - NA 0 X 0 4 99 4 85 6 33
54 59 0 - P 0 X 0 2 232 1 85 3 42
53 53 0 - S 0 X 0 5 291 2 248 4 98
48 70 0 - NA 0 X 0 1 291 5 248 5 98

[MitchS]

Can't figure out how too get the complete sheet all togetgher in one piece... Above is bits and pieces from the first race...I give up :(

[JBmadera]

Thx for trying Mitch. I like seeing how you put together the pace pressure gauge.


I only like one horse tonight at MNR - R5 #6. I was curious what you thought of that race.

Cheers,

JB

[MitchS]

1st race- Condenders :9: - :10: - :7:

The :9: horse is droping big but has not been to the races in 304 day. Will pass on him and this leaves us with the :10: and the :7:

Value odds-
:10: 2/1
:7: 5/1

[MitchS]

Hey JB.. I'm pressed for time at the moment and I'm trying to feed my face at the same time, lol.. I'll get back to you on the 5th here in a bit...

Also.....I'll email anyone the sheet that wants it... no biggie unless I get 1000 requests :D. Course I doubt that will happen.

M

mitchs9 AT earthlink DOT net

[MitchS]

Race :2: -

Contenders and valueline-
:9: 2/1
:7: 5/1
:1: 10/1

Leaning towards the :9: and :7: horse in this turf route. There overall ratings combined with the there good SR and TR rating makes them much the best. Looks to be a pace free race and should set up good.

[MitchS]

Race :3:

Another lightly paced turf route should lend itself to the front end with moderate closing kick. The :6: is dominate with the SR rating and seems on paper to to the fastest horse in the race. He doesn't possess the best closing TR rating I like to see in these kinda races but he does seem much the best...

:6: 2/1

Other contenders

:8: and :2:

[MitchS]

Race :4: -

Contenders-

:1: 3/1
:6: 4/1
:3: 7/1


Pressed for time...Like the :1: the best but were looking for value..

[MitchS]

I was brain dead in that last race with the $17 winner... If you have my sheet take a look at the value odds columns. This horse was actual 1/1 odds, top selection on one of the systems... Oh well, no woulda coulda, shoulda here :rolleyes:

Results so far are still good. Two value wins of $6.20 and $18.20 so far... On to the 5th..

[MitchS]

Race :5: -

Don't see anything clear cut in this race.

:3: 2/1

Odds makes this a no play race

[judd]

race 6--- 3-5-4-6

[MitchS]

Race :6: -

Not sure what all of the hoopla is on this :2: animal. I believe he's vunerable..

Contenders-
:3: 3/1
:2: 4/1
:4: 4/1

[MitchS]

Race :7: -

We called it right in the last race as far as the favorite being vunerable, we just didn't have the right horse on the win end. Same goes for this race, I see the favorite :2: as vunerable.

This race is heated on the front end with 4 or 5 horses and 2 E8 horses going for the lead. This sets up perfectly for a horse that lays a little off the pace and has a decent closing kick.

Contenders-
:4: 2/1
:1: 4/1
:5: 4/1 ** our closer **

[098poi]

Mnr R7

I like the :1:

[098poi]

Your closer won! Good call and good night!!

[MitchS]

Thanks 098poi... That race went exactly as planned and we got our value odds to boot. That increases our ROI for the night with that $9.20 winner.

Race :8: -

This dirt sprint is also a heated event with 4 E style horses in the race. The PA program see 2 E types with lots of E/P's. We like the E/P style in this race to stay close but just behind the heat.

Contenders-

:7: 2/1
:8: 5/1 *Value
:2: 2/1

[lamboguy]

i am going to guess at the 6-4-7

i think the 6 is the value with the shades coming on.

unfortuately i don't put numbers or do pace analysis on my picks, so probably if you bet real money, follow the guys that do.

[MitchS]

Race :9: -

This race is pretty soft up front, not the quick paced events like we've seen in the last two. The :8: has the right running style and may just get to the fromt and never look back. He seems to be the value in the race as well...

Contenders-

:3: 2/1
:8: 3/1
:7: 4/1

[rcknhrse]

:3: -:4: :7: -:8: Dont like the 88 bris # earned in the mud on #7
:3: 2 RACES SINCE 9 MONTH LAYOFF SHOULD BE DEAD FIT.
:4: SHOULD CLOSE.
:8: COAST TO COAST?DISTANCE ?
:bang:

[MitchS]

Race :10: -

Not much speed here, look for something close to the front to last the whole trip. The :4: and the :3: seperate themselves from the pack and it should be a 2 horse race...

Contenders-

:4: 2/1
:3: 6/1

[MitchS]

No value in that last race so no play...

Results for MNR tonight-

9 Value wagers-
3 Wins-

$18.20
$ 9.20
$ 6.20

ROI +87%