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HUSKER55
08-19-2008, 10:37 AM
I was reading Dick Mitchells strategies book today and he brought up a point regarding wagering and money managemnt. I would appreciate your opinion.

Thank you.

Do you bet to make a certain amount of money each day or do you bet a certain amount of races each day.

Do you start with a bankroll or do you have a set amount that if you lose you stop betting for the day.

Do you bet more than one horse to win? If so, how high must the strike rate be to show a profit? I know what he says but I am interested in how it works out in real life.

Thanks again.

husker55

:)

duckhunter3
08-19-2008, 11:31 AM
I am a big fan of Dick Mitchell, and use his strategies a lot, with modern modifications. Most of his stuff was written and designed in the early 90's before simulcasting became the name of the game like it is now. With so many multiple tracks and online and simulcast betting, some of those strategies must be modified, in my view. His surviving company, Cynthia Publishing, is still doing lots of good work.

I do not bet just a certain amount of races per day or a certain amount of dollars (except for total bankroll limitations).

Let's say there are 6 tracks running today that I follow. I will look at the races at those tracks and select the ones I think I can (a) properly analyze, and (b) offer potential value. I first use a comprehensive software program to give me its opinion. I then compare those contenders and the fair odds of the program to the morning line to see if the top contenders as seen by the program offer potential value. I do this instead of starting at square one to analyze every race because there just isn't enough time if you are looking at a bunch of tracks.

Then I do my own handicapping of the races that look like there may be some contenders who will be undervalued by the public at post time. In this step I really do go back to square one, but it may be in only 10 races from 6 different tracks.

When all is said and done, on any particular day, I may bet 8 out of 10 or 3 out of 10 or perhaps none at all. It all depends on the post odds on the horses I consider worthy of a bet. So no limitation or rule on number of races.

Of course, I have "pet" idiosyncracies. I like to look for dirt sprints where there projects to be a lone front runner who is not a quitting rat, and it is at a track where the bias is for early speed.

Since I keep detailed records I can also analyze how well I do in different types of races at different tracks. If my records show I am good at turf routes at track A, but bad in dirt routes and sprints there, I may confine my selections to turf routes there, and so on.

I do like to look for contentious races where it appears anything can happen (and usually does). that is where the money is- in races where the public is confused, and there is no strong favorite. Those races where there is a strong legitimate favorite are good for singles in doubles and pick 3's, etc., and sometimes for the top horse in exactas and tri's IF THE FIELD IS BIG ENOUGH AND THE MONEY IS SUFFICIENTLY SPREAD AMONG THE OTHERS THAT THERE WILL BE A PAYOFF JUSTIFYING THE HIGH RISK OF THESE BETS. After all, you probably are not going to hit more than 10% of the exactas you bet, unless you hit the "all button" and run up the price and buy a bunch of losing tickets. I save those sort of exactas for the big races with very contentious fields and lots of money involved.

Amount bet on any given day is another story. No limit on amount per day BUT there is a limit on amount per type of bet. I keep detailed records and have a bankroll for each type of bet I make. I am primarily a win, daily double, exacta, pick 3 and occasional trifecta bettor. I have a bankroll for each type of bet, and no race gets more than 2 % of current bankroll for that kind of bet. This is a very conservative approach, I know, but in this way you never "go broke." And you still have a chance of hitting some big scores.

So no certain number of races bet and no certain amount bet per day. "Value" dictates both number of races bet and amounts. But a caveat: if I hit a big, big score and still have several potential races coming up, I will look at what is left very, very carefully. I want to avoid making marginal bets thereafter and just giving back my good fortune.

Multiple horses to win: only in limited circumstances, and for me, those are a VERY CONTENTIOUS RACE and I have at least 2 contenders who are greater than a 50% overlay to my opinion on fair odds. A rule of thumb would be post time odds of 3-1 or better on each of 2 horses gives you profit potential (if you do the math). No multiple win bets where there is a strong legitimate favorite.

I could go on and on but I think that covers most of the points you pose. I sincerely hope you get more responses as I would like to hear the procedure and thoughts of others, and any critiques of what I have said here.

HUSKER55
08-19-2008, 12:11 PM
I have decided that my wagering skills need "upgrading" and I really do appreciate you taking the time to respond.

I have been doing the math and I am finding more mistakes "on my part" than I care to admit to.

It is like Dick Mitchell says in his book, you can be a great handicapper but if your wagering skills are off you will lose.

Thanks again

husker55

:)

46zilzal
08-19-2008, 12:30 PM
I have been under the tutelage of several DRF journalists over the Summer who do VERY well.

They have NO SET pattern of wagering: they construct the wager based upon how well they understand the race, AND, more importantly, how the crowd understands it.

When there are hidden assets, they may key it in several exotics and load up on it to win/place,.........You have to take what the race gives you: there is no set way to wager.

duckhunter3
08-19-2008, 01:23 PM
I agree with the last post. And at some point, a lot of decisions on wagering become very "intuitive". You either "feel right" about a race or you "feel wrong" (latter because you don't have any special insight into it).

Robert Fischer
08-19-2008, 02:08 PM
[QUOTE=HUSKER55]

Do you bet to make a certain amount of money each day or do you bet a certain amount of races each day.

-No, i bet all the wagers that I can which meet my value demands.



Do you start with a bankroll or do you have a set amount that if you lose you stop betting for the day.

-i use a bankroll, but not not in regards to daily amounts



Do you bet more than one horse to win? If so, how high must the strike rate be to show a profit? I know what he says but I am interested in how it works out in real life.

- i do bet more than one horse to win, but I treat it as a single bet.
Example: say u think Big Brown is going to lose and you like Macho Again(8-1) and Music Note(6-1) to beat him... You're having a hard time separating their chances, but you think together they have a 1/5 or 20% chance to win...
The total bet would be getting 7-1 odds and at 20% it is justified. (a $1.60 value)

duckhunter3
08-19-2008, 02:52 PM
In my opinion, YOU ARE "RIGHT ON", Robert. Good job.
Ken

barn32
08-19-2008, 03:32 PM
- i do bet more than one horse to win, but I treat it as a single bet.
Example: say u think Big Brown is going to lose and you like Macho Again(8-1) and Music Note(6-1) to beat him... You're having a hard time separating their chances, but you think together they have a 1/5 or 20% chance to win...
The total bet would be getting 7-1 odds and at 20% it is justified. (a $1.60 value)

I don't understand how your total bet is 7-1 odds. If you bet $2 to win on each horse your odds would be 5/2 if the 6-1 shot wins and 7/2 if the 8-1 shot wins. What am I missing?

Robert Fischer
08-19-2008, 04:18 PM
you aren't missing anything.
Not sure what the hell I was trying to say? :D

Good example of why not to post before nap time.

I don't understand how your total bet is 7-1 odds. If you bet $2 to win on each horse your odds would be 5/2 if the 6-1 shot wins and 7/2 if the 8-1 shot wins. What am I missing?

with a 6-1 and 8-1 like that , I would dutch them first


something like
$9 WIN on the 8-1
$11 WIN on the 6-1

then the example shows another error, because if they only have a 20%hit rate, the value will be between .77 and .81 cents on the dollar (a 23 cent loss for every dollar)

you would need 27% of hit rate for the example to break even 1.00 ROI.
34% for a $1.30 ROI.