HELP WITH PACE FIG CALC

[douglasw32]

I am not sure if anyone will have any thoughts on how I could accomplish this, but I have a sneaking suspicion someone out there on PA will.



I have an access database program I use to pull the DRF information from the formulator exports. (that I hope they do not do away with now that they have there fancy web application)



But After I crunch the beyer and some other info found in the DRF into a listing that is ranked I then use the Equibase PACE figure.



I can not get that in the form obviously and I can not get the Beyers (My preference,a man made variant not a computer)



So I figure the best thing to do is try in some way to have the raw figures in the for for the 1st call converted with some type of variant , maybe the drf fig one that is crap would be good enough and have it kick me out an equibase type pace figure.



I however have no clue how to go about this since some 1st calls are for 2f some are 4f etc.



Is there a formula for getting this "type" of pace figure. It does not have to be dead on since I will just average it and add it to the ranking of the other factors.

[podonne]

I however have no clue how to go about this since some 1st calls are for 2f some are 4f etc.

This is a big question. In short, use a velocity measure instead of a fractional time to normalize speeds across different distances.

Look up Brohammer, Modern Pace Handicapping, pretty much the bible.

Phil

[raybo]

Typically, the "pace call/2nd call" is at 3f for 5f and 5.5f races, 4f for 6f through 7.5f races,6f for 1 mile through 1 3/16 mile races,1mile for 1 1/4 and 1 3/8 mile races,1 1/4 mile for 1 1/2 mile races, (1 3/8mi, 1 1/2mi, 1 5/8mi, 1 3/4mi, 1 3/4mi) for (1 5/8mi, 1 3/4mi, 1 7/8mi, 2mi, 2 1/8mi, respectively).

If you are looking for the 1st call then that's different. Which call are you wanting?

[JeremyJet]

Douglas,

You can figure out the Beyer variant from the Beyer figures in the Form. You can also produce Beyer style pace figures.

Your database sounds interesting.

[raybo]

If you're just looking for raw times and a basic track variant you could get those from Bris $1 .drf data files, raw times come from the DRF and they also furnish Bris with the DRF speed figure (fields 856-865) and DRF track variant (fields 866-875), (not sure if TSN $.50 files have the DRF speed fig and variant but they probably do).

[CincyHorseplayer]

Douglas,

You can figure out the Beyer variant from the Beyer figures in the Form. You can also produce Beyer style pace figures.

Your database sounds interesting.

Had to drag this one out of the cobwebs because I was curious about making pace figures from the Beyers myself.

Take Saturday's(1/17) San Fernando at Santa Anita.The BSF was 98 for that 1-1/16th race.

The times were;47-111.1-141.2(decimal is 5ths)

According to the the charts from Beyer On Speed the raw times are 123 final,89 2nd call,51 1st call.A 98 speed figure on the mile and a 16th chart is at 1:44 which would be 12 points fast????

I thought it would be easy to get make pace figures off the final time variant but I know those numbers are way off.What am I doing wrong???

Do you apply half the variant to the 2nd call then half of that to the 1st call much like Brohamer???The variant question is a thicket unto itself.

Or would I have to get say Horsestreet Pars,buy and/or develop a program on Excel etc etc???

I just got done reading Jim Quinn's old book Handicapper's Stakes Festival and I'd like to at least follow some of the stakes horses this year but I'm literally baffled out of the gate!!!!!!!!Plus I thought about making Quirin style figures much like he did in this book.I'm sure this seems grade school to some on here because the concepts are at least 10-20 yrs old.What are the current thought out there on such matters???

If anybody could at least point me in the right direction I'd owe you the contents of my skull because my head is about ready to explode:confused: !!!!!

[DJofSD]

Trying to use BSF to derive pace information and the so called pace call is like using Newtonian physics to do quantum mechanics. It just doesn't compute.

[douglasw32]

This worked very well....

"This is a big question. In short, use a velocity measure instead of a fractional time to normalize speeds across different distances.

Look up Brohammer, Modern Pace Handicapping, pretty much the bible.

Phil __________"

Without a varient.

This Better...

If you're just looking for raw times and a basic track variant you could get those from Bris $1 .drf data files, raw times come from the DRF and they also furnish Bris with the DRF speed figure (fields 856-865) and DRF track variant (fields 866-875), (not sure if TSN $.50 files have the DRF speed fig and variant but they probably do).

Pace is already done.

[CincyHorseplayer]

This worked very well....

"This is a big question. In short, use a velocity measure instead of a fractional time to normalize speeds across different distances.

Look up Brohammer, Modern Pace Handicapping, pretty much the bible.

Phil __________"

Without a varient.

This Better...

If you're just looking for raw times and a basic track variant you could get those from Bris $1 .drf data files, raw times come from the DRF and they also furnish Bris with the DRF speed figure (fields 856-865) and DRF track variant (fields 866-875), (not sure if TSN $.50 files have the DRF speed fig and variant but they probably do).

Pace is already done.

I just thought there would be a way to get from A to B easier.

You can get the Beyer variant by looking at the time charts in his books,but how he arrives at using the entire variant at the pace call I have no idea.Brohamer in his book suggest using half the variant towards the pace call.That seems to be more in the "Ballpark" than using the variant in it's entirety but is it kosher??And Beyer has no chart to use if you want to make a pace figure for the 1st call in routes.

And in using Beyer's example races but using Brohamer's outlined method for using the DRF variant to adjust final times based on variant pars for a particular track it can be night and day.I have a hard time using any numbers if I don't know how they work because I can't think about their consistencies or inconsistencies if I don't know that and will never be able to evolve any ideas on the subject.

I've got 3 things I'm juggling.When I handicap races I make Sartin style numbers and use the DRF variant outlined by Brohamer,then I'm wanting to catalog stakes winners and their speed-pace figs using the Beyer variants,and I'd like to make Quirin style figures but don't have a set of pars to make all the numbers universal and wonder if it's worth the money buying.Plus I don't know wether Excel or another program could help me in the tasks and if that's worth buying.

I have kind of reached an impasse since around November trying to figure out which way to go.If anybody has any suggestions,believe me,I'm all ears.

[cj]

I just thought there would be a way to get from A to B easier.

You can get the Beyer variant by looking at the time charts in his books,but how he arrives at using the entire variant at the pace call I have no idea.Brohamer in his book suggest using half the variant towards the pace call.That seems to be more in the "Ballpark" than using the variant in it's entirety but is it kosher??And Beyer has no chart to use if you want to make a pace figure for the 1st call in routes.

And in using Beyer's example races but using Brohamer's outlined method for using the DRF variant to adjust final times based on variant pars for a particular track it can be night and day.I have a hard time using any numbers if I don't know how they work because I can't think about their consistencies or inconsistencies if I don't know that and will never be able to evolve any ideas on the subject.

I've got 3 things I'm juggling.When I handicap races I make Sartin style numbers and use the DRF variant outlined by Brohamer,then I'm wanting to catalog stakes winners and their speed-pace figs using the Beyer variants,and I'd like to make Quirin style figures but don't have a set of pars to make all the numbers universal and wonder if it's worth the money buying.Plus I don't know wether Excel or another program could help me in the tasks and if that's worth buying.

I have kind of reached an impasse since around November trying to figure out which way to go.If anybody has any suggestions,believe me,I'm all ears.

It only makes sense to use the whole variant at the pace call. It has to do with the way Beyer figures are made. A track is not called 4 lengths fast, as it was in Brohamer, but 4 Beyer points fast. Those 4 Beyer points may equal two lengths at the finish, but only a little more than a length at the pace call. Using only a fraction of it would really distort the variant.

Now, for those trying to use the Beyer variant and applying it to the pace call, good luck. It will give you a reasonable figure about 90% of the time on days where wind isn't a factor and the track is consistent. However, there are about 10% of the races, maybe a little less, where the variant is "adjusted" to make the figure look more like what is expected. I have found that many times the reason the race looks out of line is the pace itself.

An example: A race earns a raw Beyer of 90, and projects to an 80, so the track is considered 10 Beyer points fast. However, maybe all the other races that day project to 25 points fast. Sometimes the Beyer guys will still assign an 80. Sometimes they are right, sometimes not. There are many cases where maybe that raw 90 came after a 125 pace, and that is the reason for the seemingly slow race. So now, instead of using the real "25 variant" and the race getting the 100 - 65 it deserved, you unknowingly use the "10 variant" and suddenly the race is 115 - 80.

My opinion is this happens often enough to cause real problems. I tried to take this method as a shortcut years ago and it is fraught with problems. You also need a separate pace ratings chart for every track and distance. The relationship between final times and pace times varies greatly from track to track, just as it does from sprint to route, and sometimes even 5.5f to 6f.

[CincyHorseplayer]

It only makes sense to use the whole variant at the pace call. It has to do with the way Beyer figures are made. A track is not called 4 lengths fast, as it was in Brohamer, but 4 Beyer points fast. Those 4 Beyer points may equal two lengths at the finish, but only a little more than a length at the pace call. Using only a fraction of it would really distort the variant.

Now, for those trying to use the Beyer variant and applying it to the pace call, good luck. It will give you a reasonable figure about 90% of the time on days where wind isn't a factor and the track is consistent. However, there are about 10% of the races, maybe a little less, where the variant is "adjusted" to make the figure look more like what is expected. I have found that many times the reason the race looks out of line is the pace itself.

An example: A race earns a raw Beyer of 90, and projects to an 80, so the track is considered 10 Beyer points fast. However, maybe all the other races that day project to 25 points fast. Sometimes the Beyer guys will still assign an 80. Sometimes they are right, sometimes not. There are many cases where maybe that raw 90 came after a 125 pace, and that is the reason for the seemingly slow race. So now, instead of using the real "25 variant" and the race getting the 100 - 65 it deserved, you unknowingly use the "10 variant" and suddenly the race is 115 - 80.

My opinion is this happens often enough to cause real problems. I tried to take this method as a shortcut years ago and it is fraught with problems. You also need a separate pace ratings chart for every track and distance. The relationship between final times and pace times varies greatly from track to track, just as it does from sprint to route, and sometimes even 5.5f to 6f.

Thanks CJ.

Where would be the best place in your opinion to get the pace ratings charts for every track and distance???Horsestreet etc??

I've noticed all the things you say.At tracks I play often I know the discrepancies between 5.5 and 6f or 1-70 and 1m.A few years ago at River Downs the difference between the 1st and 2nd calls in routs was 4 lengths and 2 lengths.Between 5.5 and 6f it was 1 length and 2 lengths,and from 5 to 6f it was 0 at 2st call and 2 lengths 2nd call.

And what is your best suggestion for me to accomplish just supplementing the stakes charts I'm making as far as speed-pace figures??

Like I said I'd be willing to buy figures or variants from you or anybody else I just kind of don't know where to beging because I'm dealing with 3 different approaches.I'm apprehensive and plain stuck.

Anyway thanks for any suggestions.