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View Full Version : "EAL" revisited......


LottaKash
08-16-2008, 07:21 PM
Hey y'all...the other day when I posted of the tracks that I like to play most frequently, I mentioned a favorite angle of mine that works quite well at 5/8th of a mile track, as well as other size ovals.......

I dubbed in "EAL"...Early & Lingering"....The angle is quite simple....Take a horse that was up front/near front within 2-1/2 lengths of the leader for at least the first 1/4 and better yet the 1/2, AND lost 2-4 or more lengths to the leader,by the 3/4 mark, AND, then in the stretch-call to the wire, gained or lost no more than 1-length, through the drive......

Today, Sat. 8/16/08.....It popped up in the 2d Race at Pocono Downs....

The horse "CLOS PEGASE" had a line that was all EAL.....

#5 PP today.......Last race 3 2ns 4-23/4 8o-7-1/2 8-10 6-11...Do you see it.......?

He was up close (within 2-1/2 lengths at the 1/4 and 1/2, then lost 5 lengths to the 3/4, then stayed even in the stretch....

Here is a horse that is well meant, battling for the early lead, getting jumped, then shuffled, and then had steady good pace through the stretch.....Now if his last race or two showed good Form, or if a nice Back-Class horse is beginning to stir again, then you have a very live horse going for you today......

As it turned out this horse was claimed in his last race, FOR HIMSELF, by Mickey Petersen, a top trainer anywhere, and this horse had previously won his last four starts before this EAL race.......and, he is 6 for 22 this year on wins.......

He won and paid $10.20 for win and the ex=$31.80 with the co-second choice, and the 4/5 favorite was off the board ( a closer that was in a race, on a day, when if you weren't up front early, you could forget about closing at all)........The crowd was lukewarm on this horse and went for the closer...haha
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Also, the other day the 1st Race at Hazel Park,(Friday 8/15) came up for further scrutiny, and I had suggested a horse, other than the one that was being scrutinized, and he ran well and finished 2d.....but in that race, I had overlooked another EAL horse...The horse that won this particular race.....

The horse that won that race, was #6 HAPPYVILLE. driven by top notch Kevin Wallis.......

his line in last race;...2 2-1 5-3 6-4-3/4 6-4-1/2 3-3/1/4....do you see it ?

This horse was well meant as he made his position, and was within 1 length of the leader at the first call, then at the 3/4's he lost 3 and 3/4 lengths, and then thru the stretch, stayed even with only gaining 1-1/4 lengths to the wire......The race before that, he had the 9-hole, and in his 3d start back, he was up there eary, behind the leader, and got loose too late to get 2d by 1/2 length......So there you have it.....a formful horse with a nice EAL.....

Now in this particular race, He wasn't fooling too many, as he won and paid $5.40 to win and ex- with my previous (before I noticed this EAL) pick @9/5 came back, I think $18 and change.....The price is not the point, as there will be other goodies like this, that will pay way more than these two.....be watchful.........

You can bend the rules a little, but not too much, as it will lose it's content......which is a horse that got into trouble, and showed he still is good , by his even finish........That's the Dish.......

GL with it.....Please, anyone, let me know how you may do with this.......I can't do all the tracks, and as you can see, even when I handicapped this race before hand, I overlooked this horse, as this type of line is easily missed by many, including myself at times......It is one of my best plays, if all other factors are in place.......

humbly....

mrroyboy
08-16-2008, 07:28 PM
Hey John

They used to call this move the "million dollar move" in t-breds. Much the same as you describe.

LottaKash
08-16-2008, 07:51 PM
[QUOTE=mrroyboy]Hey John

They used to call this move the "million dollar move" in t-breds. Much the same as you describe.[/QUOTE

Hey Roy, Yes you are absolutely right, It is just as good as it ever was, and still is much under-utilzed, gets a lot of good winners.....

It is especially useful, if the early pace was very-fast-for the class, then this angle takes on added signficance......and that even finish, suggests that if this horse was left alone early, he might have won that race outright........but still, add it to your arsenal, as if you abandoned all other angles or handicapping, and just waited for the right spot and used this angle, you would be a happy camper, It is very productive for me, and a mainstay in my search for gold.....

see ya roy.........gl

best,

Versajoe
08-16-2008, 09:26 PM
Why is it important that the horse not gain more than a length in the stretch drive?

Versajoe
08-16-2008, 10:15 PM
There was an EAL horse at Batavia tonight in the 9th race. Horse #4 ran its last race:
1 2o(hd) 2(nk) 3(4) 4(7.5) 5(7.25)

Didn't win, but came in second. I never would have picked the horse prior to looking for this angle.

Did I identify this horse correctly as an "EAL" horse?

LottaKash
08-17-2008, 01:35 AM
[QUOTE=Versajoe]Why is it important that the horse not gain more than a length in the stretch drive?;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;



Hey Versajoe, I'm not sure why exactly why that may me.....Many years ago i bought some spot play methods that were just like these, and i had read about the same spot, in a couple of other articles, and it went the same way........I fiddled with it a bunch of times, but it seems it most effective when used as stated......you can fudge a little bit, and sometimes a horse will gain (but definitely not lose), a bit more that the 1-length guideline for the stretch run..........It should be part of something that you look for each time you do a race.....it doesn't come that often, but often enough to look for it.......If you are down on your luck, and tired of going back to the bank account for some more ammo, this one is nice to wait for, as it can bail you out some, while you are in recovery.......just make sure, that a horse is in reasonable shape, otherwise, that identifier is a just a lucky or coincidental illusion.....

After awhile you will see certain trainers who use this ploy on purpose to sort of hide good form, but you will have the confidence, that generally, you have a live horse that looks like this, especially if the early fractions are quick for the class........As, when a horse is involved in a quck early pace scenario, and they start losing lengths, throughout the remainder of the race, they do not generally come back unless they are in good-shape........that is why this angle is so good, even after all these years......GL

best.

Versajoe
08-17-2008, 11:07 AM
I saw the replay for the Batavia horse - it just got nipped at the wire. I'm impressed, since like I said, I would not have put that horse as a contender.

So I've been on the hunt to find another horse. I'm surprised at how rarely this comes up.

Here's one at Redeau Carleton. Race 15, horse #6.

Last race looks like:
3 1(2) 2(1.5) 4(4) 4(5) 5(5.5)

I'm not sure if the horse can win, though. Out of its last 29 races... it's won zero. It's moving down in class, but hasn't done much at the lower class previously. The trainer's record is pretty awful, and it looks like it's being driven by his brother (or some other relative.)

I think I'd pass on this one, but I'll definitely watch to see what happens.

mrroyboy
08-17-2008, 01:00 PM
I think the reason for the "even stretch" is that it shows that the horse wasn't just tiring. It had something left but the driver/jockey chose not to push the horse. Maybe saving him for another day? Anyway a very good horse to follow up in it's next race.

Versajoe
08-18-2008, 07:02 AM
Holy cow. Remember when I said that I would pass on the #6 horse at Rideau Carleton, despite it being an "EAL" horse?

Guess who won... The #6. It paid $11.50.

So I've been on the hunt to find another horse. I'm surprised at how rarely this comes up.

Here's one at Redeau Carleton. Race 15, horse #6.

Last race looks like:
3 1(2) 2(1.5) 4(4) 4(5) 5(5.5)

I'm not sure if the horse can win, though. Out of its last 29 races... it's won zero. It's moving down in class, but hasn't done much at the lower class previously. The trainer's record is pretty awful, and it looks like it's being driven by his brother (or some other relative.)

I think I'd pass on this one, but I'll definitely watch to see what happens.

Ray2000
08-18-2008, 07:38 AM
Johnny
I did a quick computer search for EAL lines that appeared in programs for May-Aug of this year.
Here's some juicy ones.

Look in Trackmaster Program, Race #, For Horse named
Look at PP line for date, Track, Lengths1/2, Lengths3/4, Lengthsstr, Lengthsfinish pace
Next start date, Track, days off, Finish, odds, Win wager Collects

mxx0528 R6 DREAMANDA ........17-Oct-07 FHLD 2.5 5.25 4.25 3.75 slow 27-Oct-07 CNL.10 1 13.20 $28.40
moh0510 R3 MICKEY MOSS ......18-Mar-08 KD.. 1.5 4 2.5 3.5 .....slow 29-Mar-08 WDB.11 1 39.10 $80.20
rcr0509 R6 EAGLE ROAD ........8-Mar-08 DD.. 0 2.5 1 0.5 .......slow 15-Mar-08 DD.. 7 1 29.70 $61.40
iny0809 R2 MISCHIEF .........30-Jul-08 INDY 1.25 3.25 4 2.5 ...slow .5-Aug-08 INDY 6 1 6.70 $15.40
chs0810 R13 ROCK N ROLL STAR 27-Jul-08 CHST 1.5 4 5 3.25 ......fast .3-Aug-08 CHST 7 1 10.90 $23.80

A list of 1456 PP lines that I believe meet the EAL criteria can be found in an Excel file (EAL.xls) at
http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/

Generally speaking, betting all the EAL's does poorly but that's because many go off chalk in next start. Sticking to those that go off at 2/1 to 4/1 does Ok ~5% ROI
However when the EAL line was from a race with a slow pace, the ROI for horses who go off at 2/1 - 6/1 is 14%
(Caution only 200 races in this sample)

this is counter-intuitive, I'd think a fast pace 1st half would find sharper horses?


Anyway, thanks for the angle play. If anyone finds big mistakes in the data base let me know.

LottaKash
08-18-2008, 03:21 PM
Good stuff Ray, and I'll bet that with a little handicapping to bolster the deal, it may increase the ROI to a point of profitability.....

Keep it up, you a storehous of info.......love it......

best,

Ray2000
08-18-2008, 04:52 PM
You're welcome John

I've seen ROIs expressed different ways but I use Wikipedia's way, profit or loss divided by investment. The 5% and 14% ROI above are way above the point of profitability with no additional handicapping.:)

Ray

LottaKash
08-19-2008, 01:00 AM
You're welcome John

I've seen ROIs expressed different ways but I use Wikipedia's way, profit or loss divided by investment. The 5% and 14% ROI above are way above the point of profitability with no additional handicapping.:)

Ray

HaHa, I meant a no-brainer, honey let's buy a new Bentley, profitable..HaHa......

best,