BRIS pp data

[Big Bill]

I posted this in the wrong thread. Sorry about that!


Over the years I've viewed posts by members that indicated skepticism about the accuracy of BRIS's Speed Points and Running Styles. My question is this:

Which, in your opinion, is the least accurate? The Speed Points or the Running Style designations?

Big Bill

[cj]

The speed points should never be wrong. There are very specific rules to calculate them.

[Overlay]

The speed points should never be wrong. There are very specific rules to calculate them.

Is Big Bill referring to the accuracy of the calculation of the speed points themselves, or to the relative predictive power of the speed points versus the running style characterization in identifying actual front runners?

[Tom]

I am not crazy about their running styles.

[Big Bill]

Overlay,

Here are just a few of the comments that I've viewed on the board relative to the inaccuracy of BRIS speed points and running styles:

........lots of programs use the BRIS running styles, I consider them useless.

I have to agree with the comment that the BRIS running styles are not all that accurate.

From my experience, the BRIS running style designations are not very accurate.

The BRIS running style designations are not very accurate. I have found that 20% of the time, they are just WAY wrong.

BRIS running styles are worthless in many, many races. I never use them,

The problem with BRIS running styles, in my opinion, is in the 2 dimensional area. They routinely miss Es that should be E/Ps.

I think that anyone who has used Bris files for a while realizes that both the running style designation and even the Q speed points are questionable for many horses.

...do not recommend the BRIS running styles. Things have not changed; they are wrong about 40% of the time -

The BRIS running styles can get you in trouble if used blindly. They hand out way too many Es that should be EPs IMO.

The only thing I see that connect to the BRIS running styles are moon tides! They are wrong far too often to be of any value.

...BRIS speed points and pace-designator (E, E/P, etc......We can set aside the inherent flaws in the BRIS approach...

I , like BillW, have wanted to develop something to replace the BRIS running style designators (which are just plain WRONG at least 20% of the time...)

My question was, which are the least accurate, the running styles or BRIS's calculation of the Quirin speed points? Maybe I should have asked, which would you not use in your handicapping?

Big Bill

[Overlay]

Based on your clarification, I would have to agree with cj's previous comment. Quirin-style speed points are systematically, uniformly, objectively calculated, so that different handicappers using them should always arrive at the same point total for any particular horse. The various speed-point totals have also been shown to have orderly quantitative probabilities associated with them. To me, a measure such as that is preferable for handicapping purposes, when compared to a subjective designation of a general running style that has no statistical basis, regardless of how closely it may coincide with the horse's past-performance lines.

[socantra]

The speed points should never be wrong. There are very specific rules to calculate them.
There are specific rules to calculate the Quirin Speed Points and BRIS does not, necessarily follow them. They are the same most of the time, but there are some differences, particularly with distance changes and lightly raced horses.

There is no RIGHT OR WRONG with the running style designations. It depends upon what you are trying to do with them and you should be aware of how they are defined and used.

Tom Brohammer defines them differently from Jim Cramer, who defines them differently from Randy Giles who defines them differently from Jim Bradshaw, who defines them differently from BRIS and so on. They all are somewhat different and they all use them in different ways to measure different things.

They do not mix and match well and one size does not fit all. It is up to you to determine if the definition being used fits the use you are making of them or not.

[Fingal]

Overlay,

Here are just a few of the comments that I've viewed on the board relative to the inaccuracy of BRIS speed points and running styles:

........lots of programs use the BRIS running styles, I consider them useless.

I have to agree with the comment that the BRIS running styles are not all that accurate.

From my experience, the BRIS running style designations are not very accurate.

The BRIS running style designations are not very accurate. I have found that 20% of the time, they are just WAY wrong.

BRIS running styles are worthless in many, many races. I never use them,

The problem with BRIS running styles, in my opinion, is in the 2 dimensional area. They routinely miss Es that should be E/Ps.

I think that anyone who has used Bris files for a while realizes that both the running style designation and even the Q speed points are questionable for many horses.

...do not recommend the BRIS running styles. Things have not changed; they are wrong about 40% of the time -

The BRIS running styles can get you in trouble if used blindly. They hand out way too many Es that should be EPs IMO.

The only thing I see that connect to the BRIS running styles are moon tides! They are wrong far too often to be of any value.

...BRIS speed points and pace-designator (E, E/P, etc......We can set aside the inherent flaws in the BRIS approach...

I , like BillW, have wanted to develop something to replace the BRIS running style designators (which are just plain WRONG at least 20% of the time...)

My question was, which are the least accurate, the running styles or BRIS's calculation of the Quirin speed points? Maybe I should have asked, which would you not use in your handicapping?

Big Bill

I'd add another comment about their " running styles" - they define a horse off too many limited starts, I.E the foriegn shipper with only 1 or 2 races or the same way with Maidens. I don't understand how one can assign a letter desigination off just 1 or 2 races when these horses just starting out in a US based racing career haven't established any running style on a consistant basis.

[Tom]

Gotta start somewhere. Use what info you have and keep in mind it is limited and subject to change.

[Zman179]

As far as the Brisnet speed figures go, I'm beginning to see that their speed ratings are ranked way behind Equibase and Beyers (not in any particular order.) I'm just catching way too many anomalies in the Bris figures, especially regarding horses which have been beaten 15+ lengths on their pp line. Sometimes I'll bring home the track program (Equibase), a DRF and the Bris sheets and perform comparisons between the three. I'll get Bris ratings that'll come way out of left field on the dirt (one horse, beaten 25+ lengths in her only start got a zero Beyer, a low-teen Equibase rating and a 45 Bris rating,) and their turf ratings are bordering on unreliable.

[jasperson]

Overlay,


My question was, which are the least accurate, the running styles or BRIS's calculation of the Quirin speed points? Maybe I should have asked, which would you not use in your handicapping?

Big Bill
I use them together. What use is a E1 rating? The horse doesn't have enough early speed to make the lead or even be close. An E6 to E8 rating means something to me the horse is going to be out there trying for the lead. When I know a horse is going for the lead then I look at the bris pace rating to see how he compares with the other horses in the field to see if he has enough speed to make the lead. I couldn't throw either one out in some races and throw both out in a lot of races.

[Viruss]

Running styles may change with distance.. thats what i think makes the bris ratings look off at times...

Earl J

[HEY DUDE]

Gotta start somewhere. Use what info you have and keep in mind it is limited and subject to change.

I agree Tom. Also I would like to add that even though they may not be exact, I think that they are close enough to use when comparing entrants against track bias which BRIS measures. Like my old man use to say, the numbers may not be exact, but they are close enough to allow us to measure and gauge them.

The BRIS running style designations are not very accurate. I have found that 20% of the time, they are just WAY wrong.

I dont disagree with your statement and I believe that is due to many variables. However, 80% is a pretty good percentage in this game IMO.

There have been many times where I have found races at the tracks I play and found a lone E horse at a distance where the E's are winning over 50% of the races and one comes in at a price. Not 100%. But happens more often than not.

IMO they are close enough to gauge against the track and bias. As far as the spd pnts, as mentioned in previous comments, its a mathamatical process.

[raybo]

This Bris bashing thing is getting really old. If Bris figs are so bad why is it that every year Bris data accounts for the vast majority of high placings in the big tourney in Vegas. Sure, using the figs from Bris, solely, is lacking, but using other provider's figs, solely, is also lacking. As a player who has used Bris data, exclusively, for many years and showing a 46% profit, long term, I just don't get why so much controversy still exists, concerning one provider's data vs. another's. Personally, I don't see the difference between them, except maybe some of the ones I have no availability to check out, like Craig's, etc..

[Tom]

It's not how many people buy them, it's how many people win with them that counts. BRIS is like buying cheap fish - it's alright to eat, but expect a few bones.

[socantra]

Quirin Speed Points are not rocket science and its a pretty easy calculation to do in your head with just a little practice. BRIS is pretty close. Do an internet search on Quirin Speed Points and learn to calculate them yourself. Then you can check if they are cloose enough for you.

The ESP running styles are figured differently by many different people. Positional running styles are also not rocket science. Decide what you want to do with them, figure out your own definitions that make sense to you and check them against BRIS. Then you will know if the BRIS designations are close enough to be useful to you.

I don't find BRIS running styles acceptable, so I do my own. It just takes a second or two of glancing at the horse's running line to see which of YOUR designations it fits. You won't define it exactly like I do, or like anyone else in this thread. You will have to make some decisions and those decisions will be uniquely your own.

The important thing is do they make sense to YOU, not anyone else.

Again, Quirin Speed Points have simple rules that you can easily duplicate. Positional running styles have no hard and fast rules. There is no right or wrong, only what makes sense to and works for YOU.