T/J Question

[andicap]

Prior to the 2nd race on June 28 at Belmont, what was the win and place % of Trainer Allen Iwinski and jock Richard Migliore?

I am going back over an old race and looking for a reason to go back 3 pacelines on Luxuponus who won at 10-1 although his last 2 were terrible. Switched to Mig and won.

Also, if someone has the PPs from May 17th,2nd race, was there a ton of early speed that could have compromised Luxuponus in that race?

Thanks,

[Tim]

andicap,

I don't keep place info in my trainer/jockey stats but here are the win stats in my database for Iwinski/Migloire

!03 starts
28 wins
win pct 27%
ROI +.22
average odds of winning effort $3.49
average odds of losing effort $7.34
Date range of the 103 starts: from 2/10/00 to 6/28/01

It's my opinion that Migloire and J R VELAZQUEZ are Iwinski's money jockeys

Here is a cut and paste of the chart you mentioned. some formating gets lost but you can look for yourself.

Tim



Belmont Park - May 17th, 2001 - Race 2
Claiming - For Thoroughbred Three Year Olds Six And One Half Furlongs on the Dirt
Purse: $21,000
Value of Race: $21,000 1st $12,600, 2nd $4,200, 3rd $2,310, 4th $1,260, 5th $630
Weather: Cloudy Track: Fast
Off at: 1:30 Start: Good for all

Pgm HorseName (Jockey) Wgt M/E PP SP 1/4 1/2 Str Fin Odds
6 Wild Look (Rojas, R.I.) 118 L bf 6 1 3-1/2 1-1/2 1-7 1-7 1/2 18.60
1 Buscavida (Chavez, J.F.) 118 L b 1 7 5-1/2 4-1 1/2 2-1/2 2-3/4 1.45*
3 Compelling Dance (Luzzi, M.J.) 118 L b 3 5 6-1/2 5-3 1/2 4-1/2 3-3 8.80
4 Quick Sez Me (Pezua, J.M.) 118 L b 4 3 2-1/2 2-1 1/2 3-2 1/2 4-2 3/4 1.80
5 Luxuponus (Prado, E.S.) 118 L b 5 2 4-Head 6-1 6-2 1/2 5-1/2 4.40
2 Lord Lightning (Serrano, A.) 111 L b 2 4 1-1/2 3-Head 5-3 1/2 6-3 3/4 24.00
7 Raise a Slew (Duarte, Jr., J.C.) 113 L 7 6 7 7 7 7 19.20
Fractional Times: 22.74, 46.34, 1:11.47, 1:18.15

Claiming Prices: $20,000 (All horses)


Pgm Horse Win Place Show
6 Wild Look 39.20 10.60 6.30
1 Buscavida 4.10 3.40
3 Compelling Dance 5.30

Footnotes
WILD LOOK raced with the pace while three wide, drew away when roused and was kept
to a drive to the wire. BUSCAVIDA raced inside early on, came wide into the stretch
and rallied to get the place. COMPELLING DANCE raced three wide and offered a
mild rally outside. QUICK SEZ ME raced with the pace while between rivals and
tired in the stretch. LUXUPONUS chased inside and tired after a half mile.
LORD LIGHTNING showed speed along the inside and tired. RAISE A SLEW was outrun.

Pgm Comment
6 Wild Look: speed 3 wide, drew away when roused, kept to drive
1 Buscavida: outrun inside early, came wide for drive, rallied for place
3 Compelling Dance: 3 wide trip, mild rally outside
4 Quick Sez Me: speed between rivals, tired stretch
5 Luxuponus: chased inside, tired after a half mile
2 Lord Lightning: speed inside, tired
7 Raise a Slew: outrun

[hurrikane]

He actually poped up as an early pace longshot play for me. Although I was out of town and didn't bet this race the pace seemed to set up well for this horse.

What never seems to amaze me is how the public can take a top trainer and a top jockey whos MLO is 5-1 and let him go off at 10-1. With a top trainer and a change to a top jock..that would be a no brainer at that point.

[andicap]

Are T/J stats accessible anywhere easily? I know DRF carries a few of them, but I'm gaining new respect for this info.
SMF, do you make a lot of money off of these?

[JimG]

Andy,

Brisnet Ultimate Past peformances have t/j stat info. It is also available in HTR program using stats from HDW. Bris programs such as AllWays and Plus V also have the information in their file. For California Tracks, Goldstein report sells this info. Sportstat used to sell for other tracks but am unsure if they still do.

I used to use this info alot but with Brisnet coming out with it I have found the prices have dropped.

Jim

[HorseLady]

Re: Migliore

I agree with the poster who mentioned the jockey/trainer combo and it going off at 10:1. You never see Bailey at such high odds! Mig is having an excellent meet at Belmont, bringing home many longshots, and giving people plenty of cash to go home with.

Recently I was too tired to spend the time to handicap a whole Belmont card and just went straight Mig (or Valasquez if Mig wasn't riding) and I was amazed at how well I did!

I have seen trainer/jockey info. I know for sure I've seen it on Bris PPs, but I'm not sure where else you could get this info for free.

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Are T/J stats accessible anywhere easily? I know DRF carries a few of them, but I'm gaining new respect for this info.

SMF, do you make a lot of money off of these?



BRIS cariies a lot of T/J stats on the BB, not the website.
You have to call in, log on the old fashioned way, but under #5 (I think) is track data-one of the options is trainer/jockey combinations. The file can be captured as text and then imported into Excel for manipulating.
The data is meet specific by track.
Tom

(I'll look up your combo tongiht when I get home)

[smf]

Andicap,

I wish I made money off this angle, lol.

Actually, i use the vcr for my jock gradings. I use the bris ultimates and like JimG said, they have pretty detailed stuff there. Not sure how accurate they are though.

I do use jock/ trainer combo's for eliminations actually. If the regular jock for a trainer in a given situation isn't "up", I pass on the runner.

Que and GR1 have quite a lot of data/ knowledge in this area I believe. They've put a lot of effort in their findings but I'm not sure how they go about it.

[andicap]

Thanks everyone,
but I was also looking for the PPs from May 17th to see if the pace scenario prior to the race had changed in the June 28th race.
According to Randy Giles Hot Pace method, the May 17th race was a +2. Under his system, a horse who is close to a +3 pace is worth following.

[GR1@HTR]

T/J Stats:

J-T Total 96 25 26% 1.09
J-T Dirt 89 25 28% 1.18



The May 17th Race of Luxuponus from a Quirin standpoint:
Par 100
Race Shape 94 Early/96 Final (SS)
Luxupons ran a 82/82

[Dick Schmidt]

Andycap,

I have PP from Bel on 5/17, but it is a Synergism file and you would need Synergism to use it. I opened the race and Lux doesn't look like it will even be part of the early pace. It had 1 Quirin early speed point and did not have the lead at any call in its last 6 lines. Lead for 2 calls 7 back. Hadn't won in the last 10.

Looking at the adjusted pace lines, it does display a "good race, bad race" pattern for the last 5 races, with today figuring to be a bad race and the next out a good effort.

The trainer/jockey combo in this race is 1 for 6 with a huge roi of $1.70. The trainer also shows a flat bet profit at Bel this meet, going 4 for 17 and an ROI of $1.56. All this as of 5/17.

Let me know if there is anything else I can dig out of this file for you and I'll see if I can find it.

Dick

[Tom]

Iwinski has used the Mig a lot in the past-and won a lot with him, as you can see in the attached file from BRIS, the BB.

From 1/1/2000 through today, his record with Mig is:

Starts Wins Places Exacta Finishes
103 28 16 44
(27% 16% 43%)

I also noticed an old angle with this horse-second time at a new low level and showed early speed two back. I think Ray Talbout wrote about this years ago-whenever a horse drops repeatedly, then comes back at the same level (and it is a new low) look for certain things two back-early speed, middle move, closing finish, bid, hung...)
Draw a line through the turf races in his record and then look at his performances-not totally dismal. But you would need a price to bet him. the key to this hore, I think is the switch to the Mig-a "Go Boy" for Iwinski.
Tom

[Tom]

Thje race on May 17th looked like this:

Beyer Par = 74 Actual = 76

Quirin Par = 98 99 97 AA
(These are my own figures made from the Beyer numbers and Dave Schwartz's Partimes)

HTR:
Value Odds 6.6 $ (idicates longshot potential)
Ev=2 Early
LV=3 Late
A=2 Avg Pace
E=1 Early PAce
S=3 Sustained Pace
X=4 Factor X
L=3 Late Pace

Tom

[baravot]

Tom,

Would you please tell me exactly how to get to the Bris BB?

Thanks

[HorseLady]

Just go to www.bris.com and you will see an area where you can purchase the Bris PPs. I actually prefer them to DRF PPs because of the extra info in them. I had a Bris PP for Belmont Stakes Day and walked out with almost double what I bet. They are longer than DRF PPs, but it's really worth the extra info.

[Tom]

Originally posted by baravot
Tom,

Would you please tell me exactly how to get to the Bris BB?

Thanks

You need to sign up with BRIS and get a password-If you are registered oin the website, you rpassword will not work on the BB-it will be different. No charge to join.
Call them-number is on the webpage, and they will get you going. You will need to use a communications software to use the BB-I use hyperterminal from windows, but they have free software you can also use.
They have a few neat things on the BB that they don't ffer on the web-track and trainer/jockey data. And...
they have a Message Board (that no one hase used in months ) but used to be a lot of people were on there-I know a bunch of HTR guys that come from there.
Let me know if you need help once you get in there.
Tom