funkydj
08-16-2008, 07:23 AM
Well today will be a very interesting handicapping and gambling day at Del Mar. You have a sensational race in the Del Mar Oaks 9F on the turf in front of a MC 25K which have to be the slowest group of horses in SoCal. In between you have a mixture of everything. Let’s get to it.
Race 1 8.5F turf state bred OC 25K/N1X for fillies and mares. There are 4 horses that can close better than par. They are:
#4 Justice Is Brief for O’Neill, speed of the race and feel she has a 25%
chance of winning
#1 Paloma’s Flight coming off win on the course 25% chance of winning
#2 Mean Heat off as long layoff probably 8% chance of winning
#6 Bran Jammas looks like a 12% chance. However this horse ran a good race
out last time finishing a close up 4th at 24/1 at this level. Consider if
10/1 or better
Race 2 no real incite here other than to note Sadler/ Pedroza combinationhas zero wins at the meet.
Race 3 Now this is a handicapping nightmare. This group has run 62 times onthe synthetic tracks with a total of 7 wins. #5 Pinpoint looks to be the lone speed but is 0 for 3 on all-weather. One thing for sure is play the #4 Indian Weaver and the #6 Scotty Jones in the place and show positions for tri and exactas as they are very proficient in clunking up to get in the money. I suppose for the win I would look at the #5 and #8 World War who wonlast out on the track and is 2-1-1-0 for AW. If you are wondering where Omar Berrio is (Avila’s normal go to guy), he is under a 6 months suspension for
testing positive for cocaine .
Race 4 8.5 F on the turf for fillies and mares in maiden special weight. #11 Love to Siphon would be the pick if draws in and would bet at 3/1 or higher. Also like the chance of the #5 Alley Theater at 4/1; #4 Birdie Birdie at 8/1
or higher; #8 Humor Her Along at 6/1 or higher
Race 5 #2 Go Flags Bro dropping in ½ for Carava who is heating up at 5/1 or higher. #6 Stomp Dance for Conlon who has surprisingly 2 wins from few starters at the meet. Consider at odds of 5/1 or higher.
Skipping to Race 8 Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks 9 F on turf. Very competitive group of fillies and mares. Previous graded stakes winners are 1,3,7,8 and 10. Would not take a short price on anyone here. Frankly I would give #8 Satan’s
Circus a big look at any price 4/1 and above. Feel the 9F will be be right up her alley. Should get a square price as the 1,2,3 ,6 and 7 will all draw money. Look for the 8 to come storming home and win this. Would key the 8 in exacta boxes with the 1,2,3,6,7.
Good luck!
Bill Kelley
www.winatthehorses.com (http://www.winatthehorses.com)
Race 1 8.5F turf state bred OC 25K/N1X for fillies and mares. There are 4 horses that can close better than par. They are:
#4 Justice Is Brief for O’Neill, speed of the race and feel she has a 25%
chance of winning
#1 Paloma’s Flight coming off win on the course 25% chance of winning
#2 Mean Heat off as long layoff probably 8% chance of winning
#6 Bran Jammas looks like a 12% chance. However this horse ran a good race
out last time finishing a close up 4th at 24/1 at this level. Consider if
10/1 or better
Race 2 no real incite here other than to note Sadler/ Pedroza combinationhas zero wins at the meet.
Race 3 Now this is a handicapping nightmare. This group has run 62 times onthe synthetic tracks with a total of 7 wins. #5 Pinpoint looks to be the lone speed but is 0 for 3 on all-weather. One thing for sure is play the #4 Indian Weaver and the #6 Scotty Jones in the place and show positions for tri and exactas as they are very proficient in clunking up to get in the money. I suppose for the win I would look at the #5 and #8 World War who wonlast out on the track and is 2-1-1-0 for AW. If you are wondering where Omar Berrio is (Avila’s normal go to guy), he is under a 6 months suspension for
testing positive for cocaine .
Race 4 8.5 F on the turf for fillies and mares in maiden special weight. #11 Love to Siphon would be the pick if draws in and would bet at 3/1 or higher. Also like the chance of the #5 Alley Theater at 4/1; #4 Birdie Birdie at 8/1
or higher; #8 Humor Her Along at 6/1 or higher
Race 5 #2 Go Flags Bro dropping in ½ for Carava who is heating up at 5/1 or higher. #6 Stomp Dance for Conlon who has surprisingly 2 wins from few starters at the meet. Consider at odds of 5/1 or higher.
Skipping to Race 8 Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks 9 F on turf. Very competitive group of fillies and mares. Previous graded stakes winners are 1,3,7,8 and 10. Would not take a short price on anyone here. Frankly I would give #8 Satan’s
Circus a big look at any price 4/1 and above. Feel the 9F will be be right up her alley. Should get a square price as the 1,2,3 ,6 and 7 will all draw money. Look for the 8 to come storming home and win this. Would key the 8 in exacta boxes with the 1,2,3,6,7.
Good luck!
Bill Kelley
www.winatthehorses.com (http://www.winatthehorses.com)