Ranking importance of different factors

[CA Player]

I'm fairly new to the sport and was wondering in what your opinions were in general regarding the relative importance of the various factors: speed, class, form, pace, jockey, horse body language, tack conditions, and other factors. Is it 90% Beyer's speed and 10% everything else.

Just wanted to know people's take on this. Thanks.

[classhandicapper]

The problem is that it sort of varies depending the class of race, distance, surface, etc...

What I would recommend is that you get a few folders and cut out the PPs and charts of all the races on your circuit. Seperate them by class (or at least similar classes, like all stakes races), distance, and surface. Then when you've accumulated a decent sized sample in any folder, try looking for similarities among the winners and longshots that did well. That will give you a feel for how to handicap different types of races over time.

[Light]

The #1 factor is price.

[Overlay]

As classhandicapper noted, the relative importance of factors can vary from race to race, depending on considerations such as race conditions, running surface, and distance, but if I were to rank the major factors in terms of their ability to differentiate the winning chances of the horses in a field on a day-in, day-out basis, I'd go with speed, pace, condition, and class, in that order. Rather than assigning overall percentage weights to those categories, I use impact values, which I've found to be useful both in rating factors on a common scale, and in assigning them their proper degree of influence.

Although speed is significant, your 90% figure for it is too high. If one particular factor were that much of a stand-alone element, people would overbet it to the point where it wouldn't pay to play it, despite its importance, because the mutuel payoffs on winners would be driven down too low to show an overall profit. (And, as Light said, that makes wagering value another element that you need to take into account. Even if you have the handicapping factors ranked correctly in terms of their influence, you're throwing that advantage away if you don't also consider each horse's chance of winning in comparison to its odds, rather than just trying to narrow a field down to the one most likely winner, and then betting it at any odds.)

[Tom]

Hey Class,
I sometimes do that with screen shots of the PPs and then set up tabs in Excel to paste them into. I do it mainly by trainer, but class sometimes (like when the optional claimers started popping up all over the place.

As for the original question, this site gives a good starting point:

http://turfpedia.com/factors/

Use the three links in the black box on the left to get to specifics.

[raybo]

If you're really asking about what is the one factor that is the most important, concerning a horse's chances of winning or finishing in the money, analyze form. A horse's form determines almost everything (pace, speed, class, ability to handle the distance and surface, etc.), in so far as, his/her ability to perform optimally today. If a horse is not ready to run today, then he/she will not perform to potential. You can handicap all day long and if you don't factor in form, then you will have accomplished very little. BTW, form is probably the most difficult of all the factors to figure, thus, the reason the best horses don't win as often as they should, and the reason "poor" horses come out of nowhere to win or finish in the money.

After form, I would say that pace and late run capability are next in line, assuming form has been determined/approximated. Some call these 2 factors the "true class" of a horse (ability to set or overcome the early pace and have gas left in the tank to finish strong). Some handicappers only look at early speed (E1) or late speed (LP) or overall speed (speed rating (SR)), these all fall under the "true class" label, but, all must be considered in order to get a feel for how a horse might rank among today's rivals.

Next, I'd say, {track, surface, and distance} must be to the horse's liking.

Jockey/trainer would be next on my list.

Finally, the most overlooked factor by "newbies" to the game, value. If you are not getting value for your investment then it's a poor investment.

[Capper Al]

Tom gave you a good link to get started on. I would also add Brad Free's book Handicapping 101. Brad goes over the factors and their use.

[Cratos]

I'm fairly new to the sport and was wondering in what your opinions were in general regarding the relative importance of the various factors: speed, class, form, pace, jockey, horse body language, tack conditions, and other factors. Is it 90% Beyer's speed and 10% everything else.

Just wanted to know people's take on this. Thanks.


The single most important factor in determining whether a horse will win is its CLASS. Other factors like speed, weight, distance, style, etc. are functions of class. Some interesting comments about CLASS are from the late Ray Taulbot, the former managing editor of American Turf Monthly who once said: “CLASS plus speed is dynamite,” Andy Beyer in one of his books wrote: “there is CLASS within class,” and the legendary Pittsburgh Phil would always say: “when you find CLASS, bet it.”

The reason that many of us shy away from the class factor is that it is very difficult to determine and it takes work beyond the scope that we willing to invest.

Also I might add that the single most threatening factor to CLASS is form; when the CLASS horse is not in the best of form (e.g. Secretariat vs., Onion or Da’ Tara vs. Big Brown) an in form, but not as classy other horse will raise its head and sometimes win. Secretariat and Big Brown were the CLASS of their respective races, but both of them lost their races to lesser class horses.

Speed figures might be a good starting point in determining CLASS, but they are nowhere near 90% in determining winning.

[JBmadera]

If you're really asking about what is the one factor that is the most important, concerning a horse's chances of winning or finishing in the money, analyze form. A horse's form determines almost everything (pace, speed, class, ability to handle the distance and surface, etc.), in so far as, his/her ability to perform optimally today. If a horse is not ready to run today, then he/she will not perform to potential. You can handicap all day long and if you don't factor in form, then you will have accomplished very little. BTW, form is probably the most difficult of all the factors to figure, thus, the reason the best horses don't win as often as they should, and the reason "poor" horses come out of nowhere to win or finish in the money.

After form, I would say that pace and late run capability are next in line, assuming form has been determined/approximated. Some call these 2 factors the "true class" of a horse (ability to set or overcome the early pace and have gas left in the tank to finish strong). Some handicappers only look at early speed (E1) or late speed (LP) or overall speed (speed rating (SR)), these all fall under the "true class" label, but, all must be considered in order to get a feel for how a horse might rank among today's rivals.

Next, I'd say, {track, surface, and distance} must be to the horse's liking.

Jockey/trainer would be next on my list.

Finally, the most overlooked factor by "newbies" to the game, value. If you are not getting value for your investment then it's a poor investment.

This is a great summary and the only thing I would add would be to start looking at the shape of the race (looking at the running styles of the horses inconjunction with any track bias).

Good luck and most of all HAVE FUN!!!:jump:

[thoroughbred]

This may seem overly naive, but what wins races is the horse with the best time.

[Robert Fischer]

This question really bothers me, because I don't have a good answer.

In my minds eye, I am like a detective or a puzzle solver; estimating the known and unknown. The past performances are used like a logic puzzle and the race videos are reviewed to further the logic, as well as strengthen or weaken existing "guesses". All the data available. A sharp perception and understanding of the sport. Even physiology.

I do not consciously rank factors to estimate the hit percentages.

Occasionally I do some calculations regarding velocity over different parts of a race and consider this information along with everything else...

There are a lot of intuitive things with my handicapping, apparently:bang:. I sure can't come up with a laundry list of factors that I use, and how I would rank them. Intuitive(ART) is fine if it works, but there is great strength in math and science. Personally, I believe in math and science, and it is what gives me power and confidence on the wagering side of things. This ain't painting!

I will give this some thought, and do some handicapping, and record what kinds of things I am thinking. If I find anything I will post it up.

[DRIVEWAY]

At this point in time, information abounds or even overloads. Narrowing your evaluation criteria to 1 or 2 factors, 1 or 2 combo criteria or 1 or 2 alternate criteria will hopefully separate you from the pack.

Go against the grain and be creative. Know the dominant approaches and head in a different direction. Surprise yourself.

[JBmadera]

This may seem overly naive, but what wins races is the horse with the best time.

yep, that's true. of course the joy/challenge of handicapping is trying to figure out which horse is going to run the fastest(best) time......and that sure ain't easy!

jb

[classhandicapper]

Hey Class,
I sometimes do that with screen shots of the PPs and then set up tabs in Excel to paste them into. I do it mainly by trainer, but class sometimes (like when the optional claimers started popping up all over the place.

As for the original question, this site gives a good starting point:

http://turfpedia.com/factors/

Use the three links in the black box on the left to get to specifics.

That technique works great for trainers also. :ThmbUp:

Thanks for the site link.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Form to suit today's race.

[Murph]

I'm fairly new to the sport and was wondering in what your opinions were in general regarding the relative importance of the various factors: speed, class, form, pace, jockey, horse body language, tack conditions, and other factors. Is it 90% Beyer's speed and 10% everything else.

Just wanted to know people's take on this. Thanks.Man, Thorostats ranks each field on Class, Pace, Connections and Power then the results are tabulated in the program performance database. You can see for yourself which factor is most important to the race you will handicap.

I just posted some relevant info here a few days ago.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?=564521&postcount=5

The main handicapping factors I listed account for the majority of winners. When you know which factor is strongest for the race you are handicapping you often can find a spot where you gain an edge on these sharpies.

[CA Player]

Thanks for all the links, suggestions and such.

With regard to class, what do you use other than the claiming amount to determine class. It seems very subjective. Is there any way to make it more objective?

[TrifectaMike]

Let me ask your question differently. Instead of asking the question in terms of ranking. Let's ask the question in terms of sensitivity and the influence of factors upon each other.

For example:

If you use the finish time of a race as your basis , how does another factor such as class, pace, form, etc. affect the final time. Two question to be answered; is final time sensitive to the another factor and the amount of influence does it exert on the basis factor.

Secondly, another important consideration, which is overlooked by many, but extremely important is race chaos. Race chaos in this sense means, how does the initial conditions affect (race start, and early race dynamics) the basis factor.

Regression analysis is often used in an attempt to resolve the questions. In my opinion this is not the best approach. In regression analysis weights are fixed, where in reality they are not fixed. In a mechanical system they are fixed (on a macro level), so regression is a very useful tool. In a horse race the weights would be different from on race to another. The variation could be be neglible or they could be large. Also race chaos can render the regression resultant meaningless.

A better approach is to determine a performance envelope for each horse sufficently large enough to encompass the majority of factors and the inclusion of race chaos. Essentially a one factor approach.

Mike

[pantoner]

A better approach is to determine a performance envelope for each horse sufficently large enough to encompass the majority of factors and the inclusion of race chaos. Essentially a one factor approach.

Mike

I know that what you are saying is true. But, isn't betting from an odds line that you created the equivalent of a performance envelope? If not, how does your approach differ?

[asH]

Pace is the primary factor. All other factors are a result of negotiating through pace.

[TrifectaMike]

Pace is the primary factor. All other factors are a result of negotiating through pace.

I beg to differ. Pace is a contributing factor, but is by no means the primary factor.

Mike

[oddsmaven]

Thanks for all the links, suggestions and such.

With regard to class, what do you use other than the claiming amount to determine class. It seems very subjective. Is there any way to make it more objective?

As Cratos pointed out, it's a lot of work to get a handle on class...I'd recommend sticking to one circuit and getting familiar with the levels of races carded...at NYRA, you have state-bred allowance races and in my opinion the average NW1 state-allowance = roughly 25k claiming, and nw2 state= roughly 35k claiming...a state-bed stake under $100k purse is close to NW1 open allowance...then you have the higher open allowance and various levels of open stakes, up to Grade I...there are also restricted claiming races and you have to cut the price on them, i.e. the typical claiming 35,000n2L may be worth about $17.5k claiming.

Even after estimating class values, you should be aware that NY winter allowance/stake horses are cheaper than the summer ones...and that there are key races where the field is stronger than the norm...one might tell that by a powerful fig or just noting what odds they went off...if they looked good and went off 10:1, it was probably an exceptional field...conversely there are weak fields (often when a race came off the turf)...you also should be alert to age restrictions and occasionally filly vs colts.

Yet horses slide up and down class ladders & can lose to cheaper horses , so you still should evaluate form, etc....but if you do understand class, you're in decent shape because IMO it trumps the other factors when there is a class edge.

[TrifectaMike]

I know that what you are saying is true. But, isn't betting from an odds line that you created the equivalent of a performance envelope? If not, how does your approach differ?

An odds line can be statistically derived from a performance envelope, but is not in any shape or manner equivalent to a performance envelope.

Odds lines can be created in various fashions. Which odds line are you referring to?

Mike