What am I doing wrong!!!!

[Versajoe]

Can someone take a look at the 6th race for Yonkers tonight? (Friday) The 5 horse won and was a heavy favorite at 0.4 to 1.

I wouldn't have picked that horse in a 100 years! How does a horse go from a 12:1 morning line to a .4:1 favorite?

The only positive thing that I can see is the horse's record. However, it was scratched in the last race, and had poor results for the two prior races.

Can anybody tell me what others saw in this horse prior to the start of the race? I just can't imagine why so many people thought this horse was the best.

I thought I was getting a good overlay on the #6 at 27:1, but I guess I need to go back to the drawing board.

[Ray2000]

Don't know that you're doing anything wrong but the Morning Line guy got it wrong. This is a big drop in class from last start. still should not be 3/5

I find it interesting that the amount in the win pool was ~15000 in races 5 and 6 compared to ~12000 in others. High roller?

[sonnyp]

joe, you'd really have to understand how the allowance system of classification in harness racing works to see this gem in hiding. first, this filly has $738,447 in lifetime earnings with $455,675 earned last year as a 3 y.o. i assume she was a major player in the stakes for 3 y.o. her pp's for this year starting on june 20 show her racing in the filly/mare open, the top class for females outside of a stake and she started from post 8 each time except once when she had the 7. this was not luck of the draw, she was assigned the open race and the toughest post positions by the racing secretary. this is how harness races are handicapped by outside post pos. especially on 1/2 mile tracks like yonkers.that being said, she was considered the best female racing by the racing office.

after many noncompetetive races, the racing secretary finally started to allow her to drop down the pre-set limitations of the allowance conditions. nonwinners of $25,000 last 6, n/w $20,000 last 6 etc. still, she had pp 8 each time and really did not appear to try too hard. she drops again tonite, draws alitte inside, pp 5. this is, by far the lowest competition and best post she's seen in many races. bingo, winner !!! she was by far the class, just check the lifetime earnings.

the horses have to be in the right class before they put forth their best efforts. major drawback in harness racing, post position and classification system.

[LottaKash]

I agree with every bit with Ray and Sonny, on this matter......This horse was the play, especially in light of all the cash being bet on this horse........

I always like posts like this, and I think most of the other good horseplayers do too.....Good horseplayers got that way, by getting in and out of pickles such as the one you were in tonite......So keep putting out posts related to races that you like, and I will share my thoughts on them, for whatever it may be worth...I really enjoy doing it.....It helps me think and keeps me sharp, and if you want to be somewhat successful at this game, you have to be thinking and re-thinking things,constantly, in order to find the winners, and to better understand your mistakes......As for me, I think I am a competent horse picker, but I still make plenty of mistakes, but most of the time, it is from a lack of concentration, and lack of focus, more than not understanding what makes horses tick..........

Firstly, your first mistake was, the #6 horse was not a good choice in this race.......Why ?...first; on a half-mile track oncy you get past the #5 post, the tide has turned, as the pivot point at this track is the 5-spot.......after that if you don't have a lot of early speed or lots of class or both, you are really up against at this track, you horse is at the mercy of the early pace, and in truth, you have to get a pace fast enough to tire and wear down the leaders up front, and if your horse is not in top notch condition, it is nearly impossible to get a win from that spot..........period... if you will notice that the 6 in her last race was outside and probably 1st over, and lost lengths in the stretch (strike-1)...No appreciable Early Speed, (strike-2) ...If you notice this horse took the lead from the 1-hole on 20jun--in a very slow half so this horse is dead speed wise.......sure, the horse had a nice 1st over trip 2-races back and finished a good 2d, but that was a 2d not a win (strike-3) and given that crap showing last race, imo, this horse is definitely going backwards, strike-4...27/1 should've been 127/1, Do you see it...? Good !

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Now to break it down bit by bit......Firstly, when I first look at any race, the first thing on my mind is, who is the REAL CLASS of this race ??.....NOt who has been racing in a higher class lately (although that counts too), but what horse, if in shape or form, would be the best horse to win it, and with authority......

Now a quck scan of the entries, and you will quickly see (as SonnyP pointed out) that this horse made mucho bucks last year, and this year as well, better than any of these others.....But, more importantly, look at the win%, this young lady is 7 for 24 this year, and 9 for 23 last year, hardly a horse that was lucky enough to win a big race to make all that cash......This horse, without a doubt is the REAL CLASS of this race....period.....

Now we will start to break it down bit by bit to try and understand why this horse hasn't been winning lately, as she surely must have been the REAL Class in some of her most recent races........

Firstly, there is something you don't see very often, and it is this......If you notice that the scratch, is on 08-Aug, and it was a judge's scratch at that (I'll explain Judge's Scratch later)......BUT, if you notice also that this horse also raced on 08-Aug to boot.....Well what does this mean ?....I believe it is this, The stable connections are !SCREAMING !, we want to race our horse, as she is so live and fit, AND we will race anywhere, be it Freehold or Yonkers.......YIKES!!!
How can this horse be in two places at one time......or if she got in at Freehold, she would also be committed to race at Yonkers on the same day.....That woudl be two races in one day.....It used to be done all the time. when a lot of the big stakes for young horses were run in 2 or 3 heats on the same day......well anyway, you would not attempt this with an unfit horse...

Now, to explain a Judge's Scratch, it is not a scratch for an ailing horse, it is a scratch for something that was against official rules policies....for instance, if a horse ships in to another track, and the trainers drops in an entry for his horse to race in a particular race on a certain date, and maybe the horses papers, which all horses must have when they race, are not available as of yet at that track, usually it is a technicality, can't race without papers.....For this horse, tho, Her papers were still at Yonkers, and as a result, she, techincally could not race at Freehold without her papers.....Usually that is what Judge's scratches are about.......

20-jun.......This horse from the ouside runs a big race from the dreaded 8-hole and tries to sweep the field, and with the winner long gone, she passes the rest of them and get a 3d......
27-jun.......From the seven hole, again versus the best girls on the grounds, she pulls an early stunt (yikes) and goes from a near trailing position 7th by 10 lengths, to 3d 2-1/2 at the half....and battling tooth and nail with the leader from the 3/4's on thru the stretch, to win going away.....An extremely powerful race, as powerful a race you might ever see, especially on a 1/2-miler.......
04-jul stuck with 8-hole again she just races evenly in that race, and rightfully so, as if you noticed her big powerhouse race must have hurt her some, as she ran a 97 TM-SR, 6 points higher than her previous encounter....
11-jul.......this proves to be the case as she is scratched sick (probably a bit lame).......just a little. as..........;
14-jul she is entered at Chester to race in just three days from her scratch date........again a Judge's scratch..Papers...???
19-jul.....entered at the Meadowlands to race with the best girls in the country. only has that stupid 8-hole again, and my guess she is still a little achy and finishes mostly evenly.
28-jul.....entered in the top Filly & Mares Open Class she slugs it out with the leader, for a good half a mile before tiring a little bit, but still not losing any lengths in the stretch only some positions, definitely on the comeback trail, I'd say......
01-aug.....back to Yonkers, and there is that 8-hole again, only she is mostly mended, and she tries that big move again, going from 8th by 9-1/4 lgths to 3d by 2-1/2 by the half....., still ouside at the 3/4, she tires from that effort, and finishes evenly, not exhausted, just even....
08aug....where we started again, 8-hole again an easy race and an even finish......
Now, because of her earnings being down enough, she has only earned 15k in her last 6 starts, she is entered to run in a class a notch lower and finally gets some Post Positiion relief. versus a very suspicious bunch at best....so she jogs, blowing the doors off of these....and is it any wonder why she was banged so hard at the windows..........

But, @ $2.80, who needs it, and that is not the point, if she were to race at another track, with a larger field and a bigger handle, and was well placed in the conditiions, she might pay $ 6-10 and that given her Real Class, would be a gift.......and sometimes, if the crowd falls in love with another horse, maybe even big balloons........
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So, in the end Versajoe, stop playing no-speed/no-class horses from ouside posts on 1/2 mile tracks......and be ever alert for Real Class horses......Just those 2 tips will put you miles ahead of where you are now.........

GL.......keep asking questions, when I was a lesser handicapper, I never asked too many questiions.....too proud to admit I didn't know shit.........haha......Don't be afraid to ask, wish I had, but then I wouldn't have been the Smartest Loser Ever........:D

humbly,

[Versajoe]

Thanks so much, guys!

It's definitely time to go back to the drawing board. The book I read (Ainslee) puts a LOT of emphasis on horses that were parked on the outside, which is why I liked the 6.

But you guys make excellent points that I was not considering. So much to consider!

[Versajoe]

Let me give you my thoughts on tonight's (Saturday) first race at Yonkers, so you can see what's going through my head:

Horse #1) Moving down in class. That's a plus. Last race, gained first spot in a fast (27.4) first quarter. However, when the pace slowed down, never really picked up any ground and actually lost ground in the stretch. July 19th performance was impressive. However, the last quarter (where she gained ground) was a very slow 30.2. Trainer has an excellent win percentage.
I don't see anything about this horse that makes me think it's worth the morning line of 7/5.

Horse #2) Came in 5th on Aug 1 in a $15,000 claim. Was then moved up to a $20,000 claim on August 9th. Somebody must have thought this horse was in shape! In the last race, though, he led from the wire but then lost 4.25 lengths in the stretch. That's hard to excuse with fractions of 28.2 - 30 - 28 - 29.1. The last quarter was not exactly a blistering pace. The trainer's win percentage isn't so hot, either. Neither his this horse's win percentage. In the two races that this horse won recently, the pace wasn't all that impressive.
I think I'd pass on this horse - although the recent move up in class makes me very nervous.

Horse #3) Broke last race. Hopefully that does not mean that he was not feeling well. This horse has a very good record for 2008 - although not recently. The driver has an excellent win percentage of 27%. The trainer isn't so shabby at 24%. For the August 2nd race, this horse showed great early speed going from post 6 to the lead in a 27.4 quarter. He wasn't able to hold on for the win, but lost by a respectable 2 lengths given the early speed and poor post position. I also like the July 14th race. He only lost by 1.25 lengths after a battle on the outside, and even gained ground in the stretch.
So far, I like this horse the most.

Horse #4) Driver and trainer don't inspire much confidence. I'm also very concerned that Stephen Bouchard drove this horse in its last race, but not this race. Is he not interested for a reason? Nonetheless, the last race isn't too shabby. The horse was outside for two calls, and took the lead. What makes me nervous, though, is that he lost ground in the stretch, when the pace was a very slow 30 seconds even. He's also coming off a longer than usual layoff, which could be a sign of trouble. I just don't see enough speed from this horse, so I'll pass.

Horse #5) Last race was not impressive. Was parked, but had nothing to show for the effort. Lost ground in the stretch. I don't see any great speed here. However, he's got two wins in his last three races. The July 20th effort appears to be a nice one. He stalked, took the lead, and held on for the win. The problem I have is that he had nothing to do with the fast 27.3 first quarter, and still lost ground in the stretch when the pace slowed. He won on July 23rd, but the pace was anything but impressive. It should also be noted that these two wins came in races that were lower in class.
I'll pass on this horse - although I'm wondering why the trainer has kept him in this class.

Horse #6) Now we're getting to tough post positions, so let's look for some early speed and/or good class. This horse has neither.

Horse #7) Same here.

Horse #8) Had a good race on July 15th, but everything else seems to suggest that he's not going to get it done tonight. Shipped in from Newfoundland - although I'm not really sure why.

So I'll go with the #3. Hopefully, enough people will bet on the #1 to give me decent odds. A 1,3 exacta box is also very tempting.

So what do you folks think?

[botster]

Joe let me first say I NEVER bet Yonkers, but it is my home track and i do know a little about the horses,trainers and drivers there.

1 Must be considered here off the drop and that last speed effort where he was hounded throughout.This by the way is a prime example why you cannot look for value on a 1/2 mile track.These type get beaten more often than not on bigger sized tracks, but do to the post and the configurations of the track here he will probably win.

2 Was walking around the track and was defeated in last appears a toss.

3 This one comes from a lifetime high win percentage outfit, but ran in his last and hasn't perfomed with Andersons usual win every other race lines.That signals me to toss him and look for value elsewhere.

4 is a fresh type that gets a guy who comes in with the longshots.Tries claimers this time off that win and is one i would use here.I don't know the trainer, but can see he has done a fine job bringing him back to form.

5 Not a fan of the new trainer here has ruined many horses over the years.Horse will probably show a steady decline in this barn over the next few weeks.

6 Trainer wins very few and this horse is a stone closer which spells disaster here at Yonkers.Is in good form however and should be used behind.

7 Sumner still calling the shots with this one, but is not listed do to a pending predicament he has gotten himself into.No speed and has just been average in this company since the drop...mabey for third.

8 Does have speed, but will need to be driven hard and long to find a spot.The driver change is big and the horse seems very fit.On a bigger track i would use this horse quite a bit, here i would bet sparingly.

Here would be the bet:

1-4/1-4-6-7-8

win 4

Good Fortune:jump:

[Ray2000]

I'll let the pen and pencil guys do the horse by horse analysis, if they'd like, I just have a couple of comments.
You're catching on quickly, no big disagreements.
Bouchard has no drives tonight so that's not a worry.
A strike against the 3 is Joe Anderson as a driver. Why is the trainer driving? Couldn't get a good catch driver or experimenting?
I'm always looking for the overlooked horse, and the 5 interests me. Claimed for 15K out on 7/30, has had 1 start for new owners. Berry drove but he's on the 1 as usual tonight, and who gets the drive? Dube. You said "I'm wondering why the trainer has kept him in this class"... me too, appears to be in over his head. but the mutuel price should be juicy. Win/Show if 6/1

I just read Botsters comment on the trainer, that worries me, now I would need 9 or 10/1

BTW If you ever have been to Cleveland, it does look a little like Newfoundland.:)

[Zman179]

A strike against the 3 is Joe Anderson as a driver. Why is the trainer driving? Couldn't get a good catch driver or experimenting?

Joe Anderson's UDRS as a driver rarely falls below .350. He's one of the smartest drivers in the game even though he prefers to train. IIRC, he was always at the top of the drivers standings in Chicago and at Los Alamitos when he was a catch driver. Not a strike at all.

[LottaKash]

Joe Anderson's UDRS as a driver rarely falls below .350. He's one of the smartest drivers in the game even though he prefers to train. IIRC, he was always at the top of the drivers standings in Chicago and at Los Alamitos when he was a catch driver. Not a strike at all.

Hey Zman.....I agree wholeheartedly.......Joe A. is a Hall of Famer, and one of the best trainer drivers EVER..... For many, many years, he was always on top of both categories at the Chicago circuit tracks, as well as Windsor and some other Canadian tracks........He's a bit older now, and he stopped driving for awhile, letting the younger Ryan Andersen do most of the driving chores........This year he has spent much more time in the NE than at the Windy City tracks.....I have seen him at Pocono, Chester, Saratoga and other places, from time to time this year.......He has some run down stock as of late, and surely in need of some fresh horses......I for one, if I had a horse in need of a Good and Reliable trainer would definitely let Ole' Joe take care of my business.......Owners in the NY,NJ and PA areas would do well to help Joe make a more permanent transition from Illinois.......As Chicago racing has been on a slide in recent years, as the competition is steadily being degraded year after year, I have some back programs for 20 and 30 years ago, and the purses in some of the classes were equal or better than they are today, and there have been so many unpunished and obvious shennanigans going on in recent years, that I belive the public is getting more and more turned off to Harness Racing there.....That is a sin, that the horsemen there, don't protect their livelihoods better......Getting almost as bad as Cal-Expo, the most sinninest track of all time, imo.........

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

My pick for the race 1 at Yonkers is

#5 Sun Lover N

[botster]

3 here was overbet and was just no good.The rule is never use these type when the odds are low and these high percentage guys aren't winning with them.
5 raced well, but had a decent cover trip from the 4 before he stalled.I believe this will be a steady decline for this horse in future weeks if he remains in this barn.
6 here was the best coming from third over at this deathtrap of a stretch and just missed the whole thing.
1 held on Berry style after almost crashing into the 3 nearing the 1/4.This BS is exactly why you cannot seriously put any money down on the half the best horse just doesn't win enough of the times.
4 had a late driver change to Pat Lachance who is a nightmare not in Jimmy Mettinises league was forced to go the death trip and was done.
2 was over bet and was nowhere.
8 Was absolutely raging in here but fell victim to the dreaded 1/2 mile oval.
7 was poor.