Trackmaster speed and class ratings

[Versajoe]

What do you folks think of the Trackmaster speed and class ratings?

I like the class ratings, since it's often hard for me to tell what kind of class a horse has been running with.

But I'm not sure how much value to give the speed ratings.

Let me give an example. Let's assume two horses ran their last race in the same class. Horse #1 won, with a speed rating of 70. Horse #2 lost (a different race at the same track) with a speed rating of 76. Horse #2 was on the rail, got sucked along, and finished 4th.

On paper, horse #2 is faster. However, the books I've read prefer horse #1. They talk about how a horse just doesn't have the personality or drive to win.

All of this leaves me fairly confused since your choosing a horse that has run slower - at least on paper.

[Ray2000]

Versajoe

IMO

1. Trackmaster Class ratings are based on the speed ratings of the horses in the race. I think it's the average of the averages or the average of the maximums of the all the entries. In fact, if the top speed rated horse is scratched, then the class rating is reduced when it shows up in next weeks program past performance line. It can be used as an indicator, but you must look at the conditions and purses for the true measure of class.

2. Trackmaster (Axis) speed rating is an offshoot of their thoroughbred speed ratings and does not take in to account the trailing post positions. they assume the 10 horse is always on the outside so it gets a higher rating than it sometimes should.

3. Speed can get you in trouble. I remember a race at the Meadows where a 5 year old horse was going to be retired for local stud service. Everyone on the backside, the barn, the cafeteria workers, the farriers all knew they were going to put a lifetime mark on him that night. They were going to try for a 1:53. (this was many years ago). Everybody knew it except the 1:57 gelding in the race that drafted him and won. New LTM 1:53 on a GELDING!

[Versajoe]

Thanks Ray. I guess I just needed some encouragement. Everything I've read suggests that speed ratings are less important in harness racing than in thoroughbred racing. What matters is the disposition of the horse - are they content getting sucked along and trailing, or do they want to fight to gain position.

It just feels funny sometimes discounting a horse with better-than-average times versus a horse that is slower but shows that it likes to win.

[Stick]

Versajoe
In your above example we do not know #2 capabilities because he sucked along.
I like to look at horses SR when they were part of the action in the race and did some of the work. Look at horses that are on the lead, first over, or made a move into the flow of the race by stretch call.

horse #1 wired the field in a 70 4-1-1-1-1-1 post 2 today
horse #2 never left the rail to finish 4th in 76 2-8-7-6-5-4 post 6 today
horse #3 first over in 74 5-5-3-2-2-5 post 4 today

horse #2 and #3 came out of the same race.
In this case the SR give a view of what #1 and #3 are capable of.

here is another horse 6-7-6-5-1-1 (parked out quarters 2 and 3) SR 79
This is the horse that won the race that #2 and #3 were in. Notice that he did not just come off the pace to catch tired horses.We can tell this because look at the move from 3Q to stretch where this horse is right into the pace of the race. This line combined with the SR shows a much superior line than horse #1.

[Versajoe]

I've read that being sucked along is a sign of poor form. Is this not the case? Are you saying that the driver maybe just couldn't find a spot to make a move?

[LottaKash]

Versajoe, my 2-cents.......I only use the Tm-Sr's as a guide, it doesn't have a great influence on my handicapping...If a horse is within 2 or 3 points of the others, that is good enough for me.....

I think it is more important to know the exact class structure at each of the tracks you play.....After playing a track awhile you will get to know the class ladder, and use it accordingly...

Tm-Sr's can be misinterpreted at times....For instance, you have a horse with a ton of back class, and he is beginning to stir (coming in to good shape/form)...and in his last two races, blasts out of the gate, and/or goes 1st over in his last race or two, and fades badly or evenly, with exceptionally fast fractions.....Now, his SR will not be all that good, but experienced players know that this horse is getting good, and we are watching this horse more closely........Another scenario......with young and/or lightly raced horses who are on the improve, and we just don't know how good this horse may get to be, there he will have had to have a good inner or late fraction to make up for his lower (than the others) speed rating.....Also, many times you will see a horse running a SR that 5-10 points higher than his previous ratings, you must use caution here, and sometimes, that big effort will have taken something out of that horse, and it might take a little or a lot time to recover from that huge effort.......

All - Horses have top SR-Ability, meaning they can only race within their capabilities, and they have a ceiling, given that, I only will use the SR's to see how consistent he is, and if he has reached his top SR.....When a horse reaches a new-recent top....something will happen, he will stay there for awhile, before regressing, he will bounce and not be able to compete effectively for awhile, or he is in super shape, and as long as he doesn't race in a race with way better SR's he will win a few more races....

So, for me, in the end the SR's are useful, but I rely more on knowing the class structures for each track....especially noting, how keen the competition was in a particular class........Let's say, there were 2 races run on a particular day that were of equal class and they both resulted in the same SR in each of those two races.....Here, I will note the quality of the competition in each of those two races......Race-1 has is made up of mostly out of form and/or dull looking horses, and the race resulted in a SR of say 81......Race-2, same class, is made up of 5 or 6 in Form horses and they were battling relentlessly in that race, in a SR 0f 81....Now I would prefer a horse from Race-2 way more than Race-1, especially, if the horse you are contemplating had a good in Form finish.......Most times Race-2 horses will beat the Race-1 horses.......Have you ever heard of a Key-Race, most times they will be from the race-2 races......Not always, tho, that is what makes this game so challenging and intriguing.........

GL

best,

[Stick]

Versajoe
It depends on the definition of being sucked along.Many people think that a horse that leaves and drops into the two hole only to follow the leader around the track is being sucked along.This is not really true in many cases. Take the Hambletonian for example. All Crazed did was protect position and follow Schnittker around the track. Did he get sucked along? I do not think that anyone would say Crazed raced poorly. Also, horses that are getting the perfect trip and explode in the lane to win easily are sometimes thought of as winners only because of the trip. Was the driver suppose to pull out of the perfect spot if nobody forced his hand? On that same card 7/2/08 at the Big M in race 3 Yukon Cornelius is an example of how these horses sometimes become overlays.

[botster]

Versajoe
It depends on the definition of being sucked along.Many people think that a horse that leaves and drops into the two hole only to follow the leader around the track is being sucked along.This is not really true in many cases. Take the Hambletonian for example. All Crazed did was protect position and follow Schnittker around the track. Did he get sucked along? I do not think that anyone would say Crazed raced poorly. Also, horses that are getting the perfect trip and explode in the lane to win easily are sometimes thought of as winners only because of the trip. Was the driver suppose to pull out of the perfect spot if nobody forced his hand? On that same card 7/2/08 at the Big M in race 3 Yukon Cornelius is an example of how these horses sometimes become overlays.

Good examples sticks:ThmbUp: