Short time between races

[Versajoe]

I'm trying to handicap a race set for Friday the 15th. (Race #1 at Hazel)

The #2 horse ran its last race on August 12th.

What do you think about the short layoff? Should I be nervous, or should I see this as a sign that the trainer knows that the horse in in shape?

Every other horse will have had at least a week off.

[Big Fella]

Surely this horse will only be tighter than the rest of the field. I wouldn't be nervous to bet on his chances. I've seen some horses race two heats on the same program. It's a common practice on small tracks on the Quebec Regional Circuit. I knew a certain trainer that at one time raced his horse up to three times in a week back in the 1980's. Good Luck.

[Sea Biscuit]

I'm trying to handicap a race set for Friday the 15th. (Race #1 at Hazel)

The #2 horse ran its last race on August 12th.

What do you think about the short layoff? Should I be nervous, or should I see this as a sign that the trainer knows that the horse in in shape?

Every other horse will have had at least a week off.

You failed to mention how the horse raced on Aug 12. Did he make any moves and did he finish 1st, 2nd or a good third in that race.

Normally speaking such a move by a trainer could be considered a plus simply because the the trainer had to put in a double entry prior to his race of Aug 12 and trainers usually do that for a reason and that is to put one over as fast as possible.

[Versajoe]

Here's how the last race went:
2 - 3(1.5) - 3(2)p - 2(.5)p - 2(1) - 2(.5)

Times were:
28.2 - 57.2 - 1:26.1 - 1:55.4

Considering the horse was parked for two calls, I like the effort.

[Versajoe]

I should point out that the trainer has a win percentage of 5% - so maybe I'm giving too much credit to the trainer here.

However, the horse seems to have a history of short layoffs with seemingly no ill effect.

Example:
Qualifyer on July 2, Ran on July 5th in 1:55.2.
Ran 1:57.1 on July 18, and came back to run 1:57.1 on July 22nd. (and came in 2nd by 3/4 lengths - although gave up the lead in an even race.)

[Sea Biscuit]

Here's how the last race went:
2 - 3(1.5) - 3(2)p - 2(.5)p - 2(1) - 2(.5)

Times were:
28.2 - 57.2 - 1:26.1 - 1:55.4

Considering the horse was parked for two calls, I like the effort.

If the odds are right, go for it.

[wilderness]

I should point out that the trainer has a win percentage of 5% - so maybe I'm giving too much credit to the trainer here.

However, the horse seems to have a history of short layoffs with seemingly no ill effect.

Example:
Qualifyer on July 2, Ran on July 5th in 1:55.2.
Ran 1:57.1 on July 18, and came back to run 1:57.1 on July 22nd. (and came in 2nd by 3/4 lengths - although gave up the lead in an even race.)

John Moody has a knack for gaining mounts with speed that spit-the-bit.
John's driving style has always been rugged trips on the outside, which is not generally good for horses that spit-the-bit.

Horse's may handle these short intervals (at least in overnight races) "IF" occurrences are few and far between, however this horse had a similar failing interval just a few weeks ago (July 22).
On very rare occassions, a trainer may enter a horse off short intervals, because the horse was "elgibile at time of entry". The horse was elgible when entered, however won he last race, and is no longer elgible (only gets in the second race because of the early entry). These types of intervals offer very high win percentage (repeat wins).


This horse has has many chances to win this year and yet offers a solitary win! What makes you thinj that will change Friday?

IMO, this horse NOT likely to improve (given it's 2008 record) of the Aug 12th trip:
http://racing.ustrotting.com/card_results.cfm?track_code=HP&race_date=2008-08-12&race_type=6#8

The six and seven horses appear much more consistent.

[LottaKash]

:ThmbUp: Versa....IMO...I always like a horse to come back in less than a week.....especially at HP...because it wouldn't have been a last minute decision, as the entry box (given the limited racing @HP) closes early, and the trainer would have had to know in advance, that there would be a short time between races.......This angle is especially powerful when the horse has been racing real good (especially in last start) or, better yet when a horse with some ability and/or back class is stirring and beginning to show some good speed and performances, signalling an upcoming win........

Trouble is this horse that you like, #2 Teddy B Warner, (imho) is a rat, with 9-2d's and 3rd's and only 1 win in 24 tries.......same last year...and for my money, John Moody is a rat, also....and the trainer is the owner, and I suspect she is young and not very experienced, given her low amount of starts and poor win%, she is an enigma at best..

This horse will be heavily bet, and for me. not worth the risk at low odds,,,and if the odds are higher than expected, it would probably be a no=go, as this horse was heavily backed (and lost) in it's last race......

That last line is a beauty, and with a better class horse (not a rat) and even with John Moody...that is a winning line, for most good horses, for it's next outing... very powerful...
So, If this horse wins, it would be no big surprise to me.......it's just this Rat-Thing......I love that line, just not with this one

You would, if needing to bet, might look elsewhere for the winner......

The #8 Lieutenant Bertera, is a very lightly raced horse that has some nice gate speed, and is just coming around to form, and will be tough to catch if given an easy lead....and, with top pilot Peter Wrenn, this horse will be competetive in this affair....(an older horse with a low amount of starts for two-years running, suggests physical problems are plaguing him, but at a price, he is in good shape off that last line, and worth a try)

#7 Portland Pete with top guy Brad Kramer, blew the doors off a little lesser last week, while being hung for his life the whole way round...That horse was well meant in that race and even was 1st over/three wide at the 3/4 pole...ending in an ez-win.......but, in his two previous races, in this same class he had trouble with the outside post, just as he has tonite....so roughly it seems, his ceiling is 1 class lower.....but you never know, as he is still young (4yo)

And lastly, as for Rats...I always try to find a way to beat them.....Even #1 Hustlin Hassle, markedly slower than the 2, and has a (P) provisional driver to boot, might be a shot against a rat......as no matter how good a rat looks, in the end they will always be rats.......and if they win at even money so be it......as in the long run...going against a rat and getting nice odds will result in a nice profit over the longhaul.......

We are in it for the longhaul, aren't we ?

Good Luck, Versajoe...

humbly,