Some online betting dilemmas

[cj]

I recently retired from the Air Force and am betting full time. It is going very well, but I do want to point out a few problems that anyone wanting to bet multiple tracks will want to consider. You can study all the information and database material you want, but you will never get everything as precise as you like. Here are a few reasons why:

1) Odds changes. I don't think you will find many positive angles that don't have some sort of an odds requirement. If you are playing smaller tracks, even using conditional wagering, you are going to make bets you would not have going by any database type rules. Further, you will miss making bets you should have made. (Yes, odds do go up sometimes, and many times significantly)

2) Scratches. Particularly, late scratches. Yes, when studying database results, you have them all. Keeping up with all of them throughout the day is pretty much impossible though. You will miss a few bets due to late scratches you don't have the time to account for while playing.

3) Post times. This country sucks when it comes to following post times. Most run late, but sometimes posts are pushed up due to weather or whatever.

4) Surface changes. If you aren't watching, this information is not always readily available. If you are playing lots of tracks, you will miss a few. Hell, I remember one day last year being shocked to see a scheduled dirt race at Turf Paradise being run on turf! I've seen it at Colonial as well.

Anyway, just a few things to keep in mind from my experience so far. Playing around with a database you are living in a Utopian world. The real world can be much, much tougher when you consider there are 40+ tracks running on a Saturday in August. These are just a few things. I am sure I have forgotten a few others.

[sjk]

Glad to hear that things are going well.

I only bet if I am there to watch the prices and can try to bet with 1 mtp. At the smaller tracks where there are drastic changes in the last minute I don't even bother. I am good for one bet a year at Prm. When I see my price cut in half as my horse rounds the turn I write them off for the year.

I am sure you are aware as anyone of situations where the prices nearly always go down (good price on horse with low ml; everyone running against a horse that is 1-5; exactas with the favorite on top and a medium price horse below). I really try to wait until the last second on these.

I mark the scratches at the beginning of the card to rehandicap. Along the way I have the computer read the toteboard and it notes any horses for which odds are absent and renormalizes the odds requirements on the other runners which gets you most of the way there unless the scratch is a key speed horse.

That leaves late scratches of half of an entry as the main watch-out. Some tracks (Pha comes to mind) make this harder to recheck than others.

My ADWs have simplified my life by taking away a number of tracks that I used to bet so weekends are not nearly as hectic as they used to be for me.

No need to wish you continued good luck. No luck to it really. Enjoy continued success.

[Onion Monster]

cj, thanks for your service.

I can't play more than two tracks simultaneously. In this era of simulcasting, it's easy for me to drown in a sea of opportunity. I marvel at any player who can shuffle multiple racecards and make multiple bets and still win money.

Good luck to all.

[raybo]

Glad to hear that things are going well.

I only bet if I am there to watch the prices and can try to bet with 1 mtp. At the smaller tracks where there are drastic changes in the last minute I don't even bother. I am good for one bet a year at Prm. When I see my price cut in half as my horse rounds the turn I write them off for the year.

I am sure you are aware as anyone of situations where the prices nearly always go down (good price on horse with low ml; everyone running against a horse that is 1-5; exactas with the favorite on top and a medium price horse below). I really try to wait until the last second on these.

I mark the scratches at the beginning of the card to rehandicap. Along the way I have the computer read the toteboard and it notes any horses for which odds are absent and renormalizes the odds requirements on the other runners which gets you most of the way there unless the scratch is a key speed horse.

That leaves late scratches of half of an entry as the main watch-out. Some tracks (Pha comes to mind) make this harder to recheck than others.

My ADWs have simplified my life by taking away a number of tracks that I used to bet so weekends are not nearly as hectic as they used to be for me.

No need to wish you continued good luck. No luck to it really. Enjoy continued success.

What program are you using to have your computer "read" the toteboard? This would come in quite handy on something I'm playing with currently.

[podonne]

What program are you using to have your computer "read" the toteboard? This would come in quite handy on something I'm playing with currently.

I would like this information as well. Computers can keep track of developments much faster than the human eye.

[raybo]

I recently retired from the Air Force and am betting full time. It is going very well, but I do want to point out a few problems that anyone wanting to bet multiple tracks will want to consider. You can study all the information and database material you want, but you will never get everything as precise as you like. Here are a few reasons why:

1) Odds changes. I don't think you will find many positive angles that don't have some sort of an odds requirement. If you are playing smaller tracks, even using conditional wagering, you are going to make bets you would not have going by any database type rules. Further, you will miss making bets you should have made. (Yes, odds do go up sometimes, and many times significantly)

2) Scratches. Particularly, late scratches. Yes, when studying database results, you have them all. Keeping up with all of them throughout the day is pretty much impossible though. You will miss a few bets due to late scratches you don't have the time to account for while playing.

3) Post times. This country sucks when it comes to following post times. Most run late, but sometimes posts are pushed up due to weather or whatever.

4) Surface changes. If you aren't watching, this information is not always readily available. If you are playing lots of tracks, you will miss a few. Hell, I remember one day last year being shocked to see a scheduled dirt race at Turf Paradise being run on turf! I've seen it at Colonial as well.

Anyway, just a few things to keep in mind from my experience so far. Playing around with a database you are living in a Utopian world. The real world can be much, much tougher when you consider there are 40+ tracks running on a Saturday in August. These are just a few things. I am sure I have forgotten a few others.

Some of these reasons you listed are some of the reasons I only bet superfectas. The final odds are not nearly as critical for me as they would be for someone trying to make a profit betting win, place, or show. And I also don't have to play multiple tracks because I don't need nearly as much cash turnover due to the larger payouts on supers vs wps wagers.

Someone trying to turn a 1 or 2% ROI into a sizable profit would have to play multiple tracks and put hundreds of thousands of dollars through the windows in order to make a sizable profit for the year. My ROI is much higher, so I don't have to put nearly as much money through the windows to make the same kind of yearly profit. I can do well enough, with supers, by playing only 4 or 5 tracks per year and only 3 or 4 days per week.

BTW, I was in the Air Force, too. 1970-1978 (avionics/weapons delivery systems tech (32271S), A7-D, F4-C and D, B57-G, C130 Gunship). Got out when Viet Nam ended and everything went "spit and polish" and "kiss-a__", and I would have had to retrain on the A-10 (wasn't too keen on that bird). Too bad, I could have retired 18 years ago. :(

[cappoblanca]

OK CJ,
Tom Worth's Pops and Tips program from RPM, Inc. (the features and pluses and minuses are discussed in the Handicapping Programs section Forum) resolve 2 of your problems. Your example numerations are used: 2) Scratches can be noted before the program displays the entries and odds differential, one of the specialties of the program, are then shifted to denote if the favorite is more of a favorite or if a horse that deserves a "second look" is moved up into stronger consideration.
4) The surface changes can also be switched from turf to dirt, if the track comes up too wet, by clicking a single button on Pops and Tips. The various odds differential and weighted groupings of measured angles, which are noted as: SIG1, SIG2, CONT1 and CONT2, etc. can be deciphered. The codes and their descriptions are gotten with the program purchase. I like to use NYRA.com toteboard feature combined with Bodoglife.com internet wagering site to make my wagers. With the telecast beam, watching the Spa races with Pops and Tips, can make for a fine day. Also factor in Steve Byk's guests' selections the previous day.

[lamboguy]

4) Surface changes. If you aren't watching, this information is not always readily available. If you are playing lots of tracks, you will miss a few. Hell, I remember one day last year being shocked to see a scheduled dirt race at Turf Paradise being run on turf! I've seen it at Colonial as well.


i have been betting horse racing for 35 years, this is the first time i have ever heard of a race coming off the dirt and going to dirt.

my favorite races to play are off the turf races, i guess i will have to learn more about off the dirt, maybe that is a new change to the game, i haven't seen it yet. i will be on guard for it though now. thanks for making me aware of this occurance.

[WinterTriangle]

Some of these reasons you listed are some of the reasons I only bet superfectas.

Wow. That's interesting. I wonder how many people out there *just* play supers? I bet you do okay. :)

As for odds changes, when I use twinspires, I wager 1 or 2 MTP.

But can somebody explain this to me? I suspect it is not really 1 MTP, because on occasion when I watch the races simultaneously on tv, the wagering is already CLOSED on twinspires before the horses are in the gate?

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

I remember that day at TuP; there was some kind of problem with the main track and every race on the card was run on turf.

[PaceAdvantage]

Great post CJ. As one who endeavors to play almost every track being offered on the day, I feel your pain.

One tool I have found that helps immensely with the problem of keeping track of scratches and surface switches is Twinspires TV. Their presentation makes it very easy to switch quickly between multiple tracks in order to get a check on scratches, surface or weather changes. They also list all the upcoming races in post time order, which is also a very useful feature.

[098poi]

I will sometimes try to play 3 or 4 tracks at once. I have bet wrong numbers and missed wagers because either I thought I had already made one or was waiting for it to get closer to post time and while monitoring other tracks, spaced out making my wager. My biggest flaw is I handicap/wager!!!! Handicapping well ahead of time promotes much better decision making, pass or play. I missed a 6-1 winner the other day because I thought I had made a bet. When I saw I had no bet I was hitting myself in the head with both fists!!!:bang: I'd like to say live and learn, but I'm a slow learner!!:)

[pdxmike]

yeah i was at Tup that day...it was a sprinkler issue - left the main track flooded in spots apparently...all races switched to the turf that day.

[sjk]

No special program in use. Just save what is on the screen to a file.

[raybo]

Wow. That's interesting. I wonder how many people out there *just* play supers? I bet you do okay. :)

As for odds changes, when I use twinspires, I wager 1 or 2 MTP.

But can somebody explain this to me? I suspect it is not really 1 MTP, because on occasion when I watch the races simultaneously on tv, the wagering is already CLOSED on twinspires before the horses are in the gate?

I imagine there are some out there who play only supers but I've never heard of anyone, except me and my handicapping partner, who play supers, exclusively, without deviation.

I use BetPad.com for wagering. Originally I used BrisBet and when they quit taking bets all their customers were sent to either Twinspires or BetPad. They both use the same software, which was BrisBet's originally.

I too wait until 1 minute to post to place my wagers. There is a delay, I believe, between real time MTP and Twinspires/BetPad MTP.

[raybo]

No special program in use. Just save what is on the screen to a file.

Are you saving to a .txt file or some other filetype?

[sjk]

Save as html. Open in Excel.

[m001001]

Great post. And I would add one more that I think is the biggest problem when betting multiple tracks (thus less time to react.) That is jockey change. Especially when they give you only the initial or/and a last name spelled wrong.



I recently retired from the Air Force and am betting full time. It is going very well, but I do want to point out a few problems that anyone wanting to bet multiple tracks will want to consider. You can study all the information and database material you want, but you will never get everything as precise as you like. Here are a few reasons why:

1) Odds changes. I don't think you will find many positive angles that don't have some sort of an odds requirement. If you are playing smaller tracks, even using conditional wagering, you are going to make bets you would not have going by any database type rules. Further, you will miss making bets you should have made. (Yes, odds do go up sometimes, and many times significantly)

2) Scratches. Particularly, late scratches. Yes, when studying database results, you have them all. Keeping up with all of them throughout the day is pretty much impossible though. You will miss a few bets due to late scratches you don't have the time to account for while playing.

3) Post times. This country sucks when it comes to following post times. Most run late, but sometimes posts are pushed up due to weather or whatever.

4) Surface changes. If you aren't watching, this information is not always readily available. If you are playing lots of tracks, you will miss a few. Hell, I remember one day last year being shocked to see a scheduled dirt race at Turf Paradise being run on turf! I've seen it at Colonial as well.

Anyway, just a few things to keep in mind from my experience so far. Playing around with a database you are living in a Utopian world. The real world can be much, much tougher when you consider there are 40+ tracks running on a Saturday in August. These are just a few things. I am sure I have forgotten a few others.

[cj]

Great post. And I would add one more that I think is the biggest problem when betting multiple tracks (thus less time to react.) That is jockey change. Especially when they give you only the initial or/and a last name spelled wrong.

Now there is one factor I personally don't care about. If I used jockeys in the process, it would be a problem.

[Robert Fischer]

CJ, it sounds like you need conditional-wagering. It would help you also if the conditional-wagering developers would add a SURFACE/TrackCondition option as well as the odds.

We are different types of horse player. Part of the game to me is getting knee-deep into the markets that are the pools. I make a low-estimate of final odds based on the market.

[cj]

CJ, it sounds like you need conditional-wagering. It would help you also if the conditional-wagering developers would add a SURFACE/TrackCondition option as well as the odds.

We are different types of horse player. Part of the game to me is getting knee-deep into the markets that are the pools. I make a low-estimate of final odds based on the market.

I use conditional wagering. It is a great tool, but it can't overcome big late odds changes.

[Premier Turf Club]

CJ, it sounds like you need conditional-wagering. It would help you also if the conditional-wagering developers would add a SURFACE/TrackCondition option as well as the odds.

We have not / cannot add a surface/track condition option because the reporting of such information is spotty at best. We don't want to be on the hook when we don't get change information reported to us in a timely manner and a player ends up making a bet when he didn't really want to.

If the information reported was perfect we could certainly code for it but 90% accuracy just isn't enough.

[cj]

Hey Ian,

Any way to keep checking bets that don't meet the conditions until the race goes off.

For example, bets fails because I have condition at 3 and the horse is 5/2. But, the race is delayed, so maybe 30 seconds later the horse is 3 to 1. Any way to try again?

[Jeff P]

This thread made me think about something every player must come to grips with:

Workload

How many tracks can the player effectively "handle" (no pun intended) at one time?

Are you better off playing one track? The downside is fewer plays. But you should be able to keep up with current scratches and changes. And that means you should have an easier time when it comes to playing mistake free.

Or are you better off playing many tracks? The obvious upside is lots of plays. The downside is that it will be more difficult to keep up with scratches and changes. And when several races you want to play go off on top of each other - increasing the likelihood of getting shut out - playing mistake free suddenly becomes a lot more difficult.

A few things to consider:

1. Profit equals edge times handle.

2. Fewer plays means less handle. Thus, fewer plays means less total profit at the end of a season.

3. Lots of plays means more handle. Therefore, a great number of plays translates into greater profits over the course of a season - provided the player does in fact have an edge.

Also, there's another effect going on. It's called the law of large numbers. Simply put: The greater the number of plays made with an edge, the greater the likelihood of generating a profit.

4. But it's not always easy. Mistakes eradicate edge. Too many mistakes multiplied across a large number of plays can translate into losses over the course of a season instead of profits.

Is there a right answer when it comes to deciding how much workload to bear?

My belief is that somehow a balance must be struck. The player has to weigh the number of plays vs. mistakes and its effect on edge and arrive at a workload that is... well, workable.


-jp

.

[raybo]

Save as html. Open in Excel.

Didn't know you could open html in excel, never tried, but I will.

Thanks!!

[big frank]

good points. also the more handle the more returned in rebates. remeber the old saying you can beat a race , but not the races.. i believe i read in steve fierros book that if you are good , it is just the opposite ; it makes alot of sense because anything could happen in 1 race , but if you a play for the long run 1 race, 1day , or 1 month doesnt matter ,,,,, it is all about the long run.

[DJofSD]

Hey Ian,

Any way to keep checking bets that don't meet the conditions until the race goes off.

For example, bets fails because I have condition at 3 and the horse is 5/2. But, the race is delayed, so maybe 30 seconds later the horse is 3 to 1. Any way to try again?This is exactly what happened to me the first time I tried the conditional wagering with Twin Spires.

[Fred]

I like to play the p4, p3 and DD in that order of preference. In most cases the later races have the largest pools. So when I do three tracks I only handicap the last 4 races and I am handicapping a total of 12 races. I watch as many races as possible early on and keep up with changes throughout the day. There is no way I can do more than one track if I cap the entire card. The scratches, jockey changes, surface conditions and changes, are too much for this guy to keep up with. I do this every Saturday and Sunday morning. If Ido not find a wager that looks promising to me I simply change plans and go to our friendly neighborhood bar and forget about it until next weekend.

Freddy

[startngate]

Wow. That's interesting. I wonder how many people out there *just* play supers? I bet you do okay. :)

As for odds changes, when I use twinspires, I wager 1 or 2 MTP.

But can somebody explain this to me? I suspect it is not really 1 MTP, because on occasion when I watch the races simultaneously on tv, the wagering is already CLOSED on twinspires before the horses are in the gate?Two things can cause this.

First, the TwinSpires site (and everyone else for that matter) gets updates on odds from the tote system only once every 45-60 seconds, so depending on when your refresh happens, your odds display could be up to 2 minutes slow.

Second, whether it be TV, or streaming video, the video signal from the host track has to be compressed, sent to the provider you are watching, decompressed, processed and then broadcast. It's not "live" even under best case scenario. Worst case, with streaming video, there is always a 20-60 second delay over "live" to accomplish this.

[DeanT]

This thread made me think about something every player must come to grips with:

Workload

How many tracks can the player effectively "handle" (no pun intended) at one time?

Are you better off playing one track? The downside is fewer plays. But you should be able to keep up with current scratches and changes. And that means you should have an easier time when it comes to playing mistake free.

Or are you better off playing many tracks? The obvious upside is lots of plays. The downside is that it will be more difficult to keep up with scratches and changes. And when several races you want to play go off on top of each other - increasing the likelihood of getting shut out - playing mistake free suddenly becomes a lot more difficult.

A few things to consider:

1. Profit equals edge times handle.

2. Fewer plays means less handle. Thus, fewer plays means less total profit at the end of a season.

3. Lots of plays means more handle. Therefore, a great number of plays translates into greater profits over the course of a season - provided the player does in fact have an edge.

Also, there's another effect going on. It's called the law of large numbers. Simply put: The greater the number of plays made with an edge, the greater the likelihood of generating a profit.

4. But it's not always easy. Mistakes eradicate edge. Too many mistakes multiplied across a large number of plays can translate into losses over the course of a season instead of profits.

Is there a right answer when it comes to deciding how much workload to bear?

My belief is that somehow a balance must be struck. The player has to weigh the number of plays vs. mistakes and its effect on edge and arrive at a workload that is... well, workable.


-jp

.

That's a good post Jeff. My limit is three tracks to play and usually every second or third race at each. I am sure others can do better. I used to play three, almost every race when I was grinding. At the end of the day I felt like I had gone to war. I made several mistakes a day because I was working too much and post times are not scheduled right in NA.

In Europe it is better. They run a race every ten minutes, and there are few delays. If I could make a play, look at a Post parade, or whatever every ten minutes like clockwork I would be better off. But this fractured business would never think of scheduling better.

[Robert Fischer]

i start with the best tracks available and do as much pre-screening as I can.

find maybe 25 races worth watching as live markets

hopefully find 1 race in the pre-screen with a clear-cut vulnerable favorite situation. Try to build a multi-race around that one (pick3)

watch the markets for the 25 races and maybe 4 of them offer a greater than 30cents/dollar value edge.

[PaceAdvantage]

Second, whether it be TV, or streaming video, the video signal from the host track has to be compressed, sent to the provider you are watching, decompressed, processed and then broadcast. It's not "live" even under best case scenario. Worst case, with streaming video, there is always a 20-60 second delay over "live" to accomplish this.True, however, internet video (whether it was YouBet or old BrisBet) used to be anywhere from 20-30 seconds delayed.

With the new TwinspiresTV, the delay has become virtually nonexistant, at least when compared to TVG over satellite TV. I haven't tested it against cable TV yet...

[titans1127]

True, however, internet video (whether it was YouBet or old BrisBet) used to be anywhere from 20-30 seconds delayed.

With the new TwinspiresTV, the delay has become virtually nonexistant, at least when compared to TVG over satellite TV. I haven't tested it against cable TV yet...I was gonna check Twinspires TV against the Long Island OTB channel with Saratoga but NY residents can't view NY track signals(stupidest thing I've ever heard but thats another story). Since the OTB channel cuts out to some Italian programming at 6 p.m. minutes before Saratoga's last race goes off(again stupid) I can't compare the races shown usually after NYRA ends. Our OTB channel does give live audio and odds after 8 p.m. and I compared that to Twinspires TV and it was about 0.5-2 seconds off. I'd try to compare on a non NYRA day but I haven't bet enough in 5 days nor do I have money to deposit either :( But it's amazing how far technology has advanced in getting streaming video as live as it can get.

[Fred]

I would also add that there is a diminishing return on the fun factor. If this becomes too much work then the enjoyment aspect is lost for me. Racing is my sanctuary and I want to keep it that way. Trying to play too many tracks is onerous to me. CJ and Nathan have provided me the tools to enjoy this endeavor without getting stressed or hurt financially and I use their products judiciously.

Freddy

[GARY Z]

I'd add the biggest issue betting via simulcasts are pre race
issues such as horses acting up in the paddock or during the
post parade.

Quite often odds change dramatically on favored horses which appear to be a gift(rarely) because of pre race problems.


One of the reasons ROI may improve when you are the track and
observe the field prior to race.

Unless of course, some innovative camera work was provided by
either TVG or HRC

[raybo]

Save as html. Open in Excel.

Well, I tried saving as html and opening in Excel 2007. Won't open, says I need script and frames support. (?) Are these add-ins or is it just a settings thing?