TOP 3 PERCENTAGE'S

[pktruckdriver]

I was wonderng of all the software out there, what is the norm for Top 3 win average??

1. Is it about 65-85%
one of the top 3 wins the race

Can anyone get higher on a consisitent basis, well 80% is pretty high , right?


2. Next, of the Top 3 what % is the exacta also hit with the same Top 3
now this may be alot lower , no? 45-60% Maybe??



Now I know this is due to lots of hard work finding what works for your style of H-capping, but with the work done, can one hope to reach a certain level of consistent hits from his Top 3?? YES OR NO?

[barn32]

I was wonderng of all the software out there, what is the norm for Top 3 win average??

1. Is it about 65-85%
one of the top 3 wins the race

If you use the first, second and third favorites as your contenders you should be able to get the winner in your top three about 60%~...no handicapping required.

I can think of a half a dozen mechanical methods that will do just as well. Top three Beyer's, top four, best of last three, etc., etc.

I'm pretty sure the top two is 51-52%. I'm not sure about the exact number for three horses, nor am I sure what the number is for the top four. Would be curious to find out though.

[pktruckdriver]

Yes I was curious how the M/L fav's would do, but I am really trying to keep it down to the Top 3 contenders only, and then of the Top 3, how often they combine for the exacta, too.


My database is not built up enough yet, only months , not years, someday I'll get a db from someone, but for now, I will deal with what i got, and then Post my questions on here for more answers.

[sjk]

I get

1st choice: 33.2%
2nd choice: 21.3%
3rd choice: 15.0%

Total: 69.5%

[MONEY]

I get

1st choice: 33.2%
2nd choice: 21.3%
3rd choice: 15.0%

Total: 69.5%
:ThmbDown: About 3% combined when I play them.:ThmbDown:

money

[sjk]

If you are responding to my stats I haven't a clue what you are talking about.

[barn32]

Yes I was curious how the M/L fav's would do, but I am really trying to keep it down to the Top 3 contenders only, and then of the Top 3, how often they combine for the exacta, too.


My database is not built up enough yet, only months , not years, someday I'll get a db from someone, but for now, I will deal with what i got, and then Post my questions on here for more answers.

Cramer wrote a very interesting "booklet" called "Eleven Winning Exacta Situations." I have it and it has a lot of good information.

I think in there he talks about how often the favorite figures in the exacta, which is a lot.

I can't remember the numbers off the top of my head, but maybe someone here knows. Point is, the first and/or second favorite figures to be in the exacta quite a bit.

[raybo]

ML is supposed to estimate how the public will bet. Near post time odds would come closer to pointing to the capabilities of the horses.

The winner coming from ML top 4 avgs about 80%. Near post time top 4 would be higher than that, but at lower odds, I would imagine.

[Tom Barrister]

It depends on what you use.

The top three betting favorites win about 68-69% of the time.

HTR and HSH's best composite ratings get the winner in the top three about 64-65% of the time. The lower win percentage is more than offset by better mutuel prices.

The power-like ratings of most of the better-known software will probablly have the winner in the top three at least 60% of the time.

[Jake]

Cramer wrote a very interesting "booklet" called "Eleven Winning Exacta Situations." I have it and it has a lot of good information.

I think in there he talks about how often the favorite figures in the exacta, which is a lot.

I can't remember the numbers off the top of my head, but maybe someone here knows. Point is, the first and/or second favorite figures to be in the exacta quite a bit.

This is off topic a bit, but what I found best for longshot play is this: straight win bet on the longshot, and an exacta with my longshot underneath the top 2 ML horses, the top 2 Prime Power horses, and the other longest priced horse in my top4 contenders (usually 3-4 horses). I found that approach works better than keying my longshot top and bottom. The percentages of one of the top three betting choices not being in the exacta is very low, probably around 15%. So that's where you should be looking for the horse to beat your longshot. The chances of your longshot running second is usually much higher than it winning, so keyed underneath is a good choice (exacta as place bet). Each race is different, so getting locked too tightly into overall top 3 summary probabilities can take you away from logical play, but the above approach works well for me.

Jake

[gm10]

My speed ratings-only picks for 2008 (so these do not take any live or morning line odds into account which is a crucial point to make)

1st choice 28.43%
2nd choice 20.98%
3rd choice 15.22%

The public

1st choice 34.72%
2nd choice 20.98%
3rd choice 14.68%

[pktruckdriver]

Hey Tom , how bout a little more on which to use for better results , please.

It depends on what you use.

The top three betting favorites win about 68-69% of the time.

HTR and HSH's best composite ratings get the winner in the top three about 64-65% of the time. The lower win percentage is more than offset by better mutuel prices.

The power-like ratings of most of the better-known software will probablly have the winner in the top three at least 60% of the time.


Hey Barn any idea where I may get that booklet??

Cramer wrote a very interesting "booklet" called "Eleven Winning Exacta Situations." I have it and it has a lot of good information.

I think in there he talks about how often the favorite figures in the exacta, which is a lot.

I can't remember the numbers off the top of my head, but maybe someone here knows. Point is, the first and/or second favorite figures to be in the exacta quite a bit

Thanks Guys

[barn32]

Hey Barn any idea where I may get that booklet??

Thanks GuysELEVEN WINNING EXACTA SITUATIONS by Cramer, Mark (http://www.gamblersbook.com/weblink.cby/detail/556305.html)

The Handicapping Store: Eleven Winning Exacta Situations (http://www.cynthiapublishing.com/Merchant2/merchant.mv?Screen=PROD&Store_Code=THS&Product_Code=BK-11S)