ARLINGTON MILLION Stakes

[Robert Fischer]

3 Grade 1 turf stakes

8. Secretariat 10f Turf. Purse $400,000. 3yo

9. Beverly D. 9.5f Turf. Purse $750,000. F&M

10.Arlington Million 10f Turf. Purse $1,000,000. 3yo^up


free pps up on BRIS and DRF
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/winstar_farm_llc_120158.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/mcpeek_120183.pdf
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/mcpeek_120184.pdf

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08AParlingtonmillion.pdf (http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08AParlingtonmillion_moss.pdf)
http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08APbeverlystk.pdf

[Onion Monster]

Thanks for the links.

[Robert Fischer]

no problemo O.M. ^^

The Million looks like a very solid race. Could go a number of ways. Archipenko looks very good in his last three. Einstein is the USA power. Mount Nelson just won the eclipse stakes. Sudan is the wise guy pick who will try to wire this field, and long-shot players are trying to find a way to use Stream Cat.



Any strong opinions on these 3 big race ? 250k guarantee pick3 and part of 7-10 pk4

[Robert Fischer]

SUDAN out of Million - bowed tendon
the pace scenario just changed:ThmbUp:


ITS IN THE AIR?
forecast
Arlington Heights, Illinois Saturday = 79 HEAT INDEX(real feel) 81

TURF BREEDING?
Top TOMLINSON 480 Mount Nelson
Top Bris 130 Mount Nelson

[equicom]

I've rated Stream Cat ahead of the foreign horses except Archipenko. It is a very weak field this year. Einstein probably has the best local form (and even he is an import) and he has been running mostly places, so it is a tricky one.

I think Einstein/Stream Cat, then maybe Archipenko and Mount Nelson. He was one of the stronger internationals, but having said that, his form is lousy.

What has to be considered is that Einstein ran 2nd to Curlin and he has also in the past finished within 3 lengths of Sky Conqueror. Most of the others can't boast that kind of performance.

If Archipenko runs his best and has travelled well, he can make his presence felt, but I still am feeling Einstein more strongly. But of course it is not an exact science... form is all relative!

[Robert Fischer]

Secretariat - Tizdejavu
Snoose Goose may or may not be worth using as an underneath key in a tri or super.


BeverlyD - Precious Kitten
Mauralakana is my 2nd choice

MILLION - I am split between Einstein , Archipenko, and Mount Nelson. Looks like Archipenko is my top choice.

pretty chalky other than maybe the BevD:bang:
one option may be to use the pick 4 with race 7. Sebastian County looks like a vulnerable morning line favorite in a wide open race. Maybe i should just play r7
need a power nap:sleeping:

[cj]

I posted my ratings for all the stakes here (http://www.pacefigures.com).

[Valuist]

Archipenko has turned into a monster since adding blinkers. I price him at 8-5 here. Somebody said Einstein was an import; he may have been born in Brazil but he's been running in North America for several years now; I would not consider that an import.

Don't worry about the pace; speed never has done well on that course. Right now I'm about 5 miles from the track and heat no issue today: about 75 degrees and mostly clear.

[sammy the sage]

thanks CJ...breeding may make a difference in R6

[Robert Fischer]

I posted my ratings for all the stakes here (http://www.pacefigures.com).

good stuff

[dartman51]

My pick 4 tommorrow will look like this: 7th >6-3
8th >6-7
9th >2-3
10th >1-5

$32.00 is all I'm willing to risk on these.

[Robert Fischer]

$8 homerun play ?

7th - All
8th - Plan
9th - Mauralakana
10th - Mount Nelson

When Value gets dangerously close to Luck... ;)

[Valuist]

Weather update: no rain yet although it is quite overcast. Unlike many years, heat does NOT appear to be a factor today, which bodes well for the Euros. AP's lawn isn't normally kind to speed and the situation becomes magnified if the course is soft or yielding.

[SylvanNash]

Arlington Million - I think it's a good field, but plenty of vunerablity. I really don't like Mount Nelson, but might use him on a safety bet. I think it's gonna be 1-6-3-2 (or 5).

[Valuist]

This is arguably the weakest U.S. contingent I can remember in the Million. Definitely no John Henrys, Manilas or Theatricals in the U.S. contingent this year.

[Bruddah]

and some of you have and will. :lol: I like the way Cloudy's Knight is coming into this race. I am playing the #5 in the Arlington Million at $100 across in my cyber account.. I love the M/L odds at 20-1.

$1 Trifecta Key #5-All-All and All-#5-All

With Sudan the lone speed of the race out, it wouldn't suprise me to see this horse go to the front and try and steal it up front with moderate fractions.
Of course all of this is just my Humble Handicapping Opinion looking for a longshot in the race. :blush: :D

[point given]

and some of you have and will. :lol: I like the way Cloudy's Knight is coming into this race. I am playing the #5 in the Arlington Million at $100 across in my cyber account.. I love the M/L odds at 20-1.

$1 Trifecta Key #5-All-All and All-#5-All

With Sudan the lone speed of the race out, it wouldn't suprise me to see this horse go to the front and try and steal it up front with moderate fractions.
Of course all of this is just my Humble Handicapping Opinion looking for a longshot in the race. :blush: :D


Einstein has speed and wired a GP field 2 years ago @ 1 3/8ths if i remember. Like the horse and trainer dislike owners .

[Bruddah]

Einstein has speed and wired a GP field 2 years ago @ 1 3/8ths if i remember. Like the horse and trainer dislike owners .


Using my World Famous ;) Shotgun Tri

$1 Tri Part Wheel

2-3-5-6
1-2-3-5-6-7
1-2-3-5-6-7 = $80

$1 Tri Key

#5-All-All = $25
All-#5-All = $25

$100 across the board on #5 = $300

Total cyber bucks bet on race = $430

This should make for good hot discussion. :D :ThmbUp:

Win-Lose or Draw there will be no Red Boarding by this old fella.

[sammy the sage]

"""This should make for good hot discussion""...NOT REALLY..you're using a longshot...which if hits...WILL PAY...

Your BB tri bet was a GUARANTEED MONEY LOSS...period...too bad that's too hard for you to comprehend.

But then again...w/monopoly money...what does either position matter :rolleyes:

[Bruddah]

"""This should make for good hot discussion""...NOT REALLY..you're using a longshot...which if hits...WILL PAY...

Your BB tri bet was a GUARANTEED MONEY LOSS...period...too bad that's too hard for you to comprehend.

But then again...w/monopoly money...what does either position matter :rolleyes:

You are so wise. Thank you for your reply. You are right about the monopoly money. I am playing my account at Bodog, which I have made my initial investment back plus $700 real profits. Made the real money plus all the monopoly money the same as I am betting now. My monopoly money account will either be a few bucks less or a Hell of a lot bigger. :D

Good Luck with your bets today and Happy Handicapping. :D
Bruddah

[swedejxn]

It appears to me that you are taking the "tin Man" angle with cloudy's...
should be no way this old horse lights up the board.... good luck

[Stevie Belmont]

Secretariat- The 1 1/4 event for 3 year olds fillies on the grass . 4 horses to use in this one. You might be able to get away with not using Secret Getaway, but I’ll put her in. Winchester, Plan and Tizdejavu. Winchester ships in with Plan from Ireland. These two don’t look to be the strongest euros to ship in, but this race is not packed with big horses. Winchester has won at a 1 1/4 in Ireland and will use lasix and blinkers for the first time. Plan owned by IEAH of Big Brown fame and Team Tabor from Ireland. Murtagh from Ireland will ride. Her time form numbers have improved with each race she has run. Will try the 1 1/4 for the first time. And Secret Getaway coming off back to back wins at Woodbine, but also ran a game 2nd at the class filled Keeneland meet to Accredit.

Beverly D- Lots of class in here, but the question is who will get the distance. It looks like the front end will be crowded early with Dreaming of Ana, Rosinka and Precious Kitten. They are all class, but will they stay on late? Mauralakana has won at the distance of a 1 3/16 and is sharp form for Clement. She always put in a strong late rally. French filly Cicerole stretches out. Horse has never won beyond a 1 1/16, but the horse always run a good race. She has defeated colts in France. Has never contested a race better then a G3…Connections see fit to make it today. She might be a surprise.

Arlington Million- Archipenko is starting to get better and better. Big time form ratings and won the Queen Elizabeth Cup. Spirit One is another french invader. Has run some solid races in France and is a winner at a 1 1/4. Ran right behind the top rated Euro Duke Of Maramalade in a gutsy effort. If turf is less then firm this one should appreciate it. Einstein one of the top American based horses this year. Has never won at a 1 1/4, but is in solid form for this. And team Tabor shows up with Mount Nelson coming off a GI win in the Eclipse Stakes. Murtagh sees fit to come over and ride him for this. Ran right behind the top rated filly Darjina.

Pick 3 play

2,3,6,9/4,9/1,3,6,7 $32 for a buck

[plainolebill]

I know you know this - but you wrote fillies, Secretariat is for colts.

[Indulto]

I posted my ratings for all the stakes here (http://www.pacefigures.com/).Using your numbers, I pick:
AP 7th 3,6
AP 8th 3,6
AP 9th 1,3
AP 10th 1,6,7

[Robert Fischer]

st joe had his head turned in the gate / ruined majority of my tix :bang:

played a little to win a lot , not a bad loss:ThmbUp:

go archi

[Tee]

#3 Spirit One

[Burls]

AP R10

:1: :3: :5: $1 EXB
:1: :3: :5: $1TBX
:1: / :3: :5: :6: / :3: :5: :6: $1 TBX
:1: / :6: $2 EX

Total = $20

[Valuist]

This is arguably the weakest U.S. contingent I can remember in the Million. Definitely no John Henrys, Manilas or Theatricals in the U.S. contingent this year.

I would say this evidence is overwhelming. The best finish by a U.S. runner was Silverfoot's 4th.

[juanepstein]

i already have a post it note up saying "EUROS IN THE BREEDERS CUP!"

[Burls]

AP R10

:1: :3: :5: $1 EXB
:1: :3: :5: $1TBX
:1: / :3: :5: :6: / :3: :5: :6: $1 TBX
:1: / :6: $2 EX

Total = $20
$1 Ex - $34.20 Got my money back and a bit on the EX.
I was hoping for a lot more from the 5. I was really hoping it was lagging off on the 2 previous cheaper races.

#3 Spirit One
3 W 29.40
Nice hit Tee.

[toetoe]

... for not posting Spirit One as a near lock on the principle of "Toetoe picked him but forgot/neglected/didn't care to bet him."

I decided to single Archipenko in doubles and a pick-four; AND bet Spirit One to win, BEFORE the scratch of Sudan. My rationale for passing up the eventual-lone-speed-angle win bet ? I guess maybe I figured the public would bet the horse down. :bang:

[Tee]

Thanks Burls!! :)

3 W 29.40
Nice hit Tee.

[Stevie Belmont]

Thats a Bang where I come from...

Secretariat- The 1 1/4 event for 3 year olds fillies on the grass . 4 horses to use in this one. You might be able to get away with not using Secret Getaway, but I’ll put her in. Winchester, Plan and Tizdejavu. Winchester ships in with Plan from Ireland. These two don’t look to be the strongest euros to ship in, but this race is not packed with big horses. Winchester has won at a 1 1/4 in Ireland and will use lasix and blinkers for the first time. Plan owned by IEAH of Big Brown fame and Team Tabor from Ireland. Murtagh from Ireland will ride. Her time form numbers have improved with each race she has run. Will try the 1 1/4 for the first time. And Secret Getaway coming off back to back wins at Woodbine, but also ran a game 2nd at the class filled Keeneland meet to Accredit.

Beverly D- Lots of class in here, but the question is who will get the distance. It looks like the front end will be crowded early with Dreaming of Ana, Rosinka and Precious Kitten. They are all class, but will they stay on late? Mauralakana has won at the distance of a 1 3/16 and is sharp form for Clement. She always put in a strong late rally. French filly Cicerole stretches out. Horse has never won beyond a 1 1/16, but the horse always run a good race. She has defeated colts in France. Has never contested a race better then a G3…Connections see fit to make it today. She might be a surprise.

Arlington Million- Archipenko is starting to get better and better. Big time form ratings and won the Queen Elizabeth Cup. Spirit One is another french invader. Has run some solid races in France and is a winner at a 1 1/4. Ran right behind the top rated Euro Duke Of Maramalade in a gutsy effort. If turf is less then firm this one should appreciate it. Einstein one of the top American based horses this year. Has never won at a 1 1/4, but is in solid form for this. And team Tabor shows up with Mount Nelson coming off a GI win in the Eclipse Stakes. Murtagh sees fit to come over and ride him for this. Ran right behind the top rated filly Darjina.

Pick 3 play

2,3,6,9/4,9/1,3,6,7 $32 for a buck

[Stevie Belmont]

The Secretariat is not for fillies.....Typed to fast. I was thinking of Mauralakana most of the night.

[Robert Fischer]

great job Stevie Belmont #:1:



and great job to all who had winners.

hard sequence for me. I had it but went lighter. I focused on the pick 4 with smaller tickets and my race 7 single didn't break. Also identified race 7 as a chaos race without cashing in the verticle exotic plays. Still was an interesting, quality day of racing.
This is the life.

[Hosshead]

Congrats to all that made some $$'s at AP today !

Here's an Arlington Million blast from the past (1st running) that's fun to watch, with post race comments .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQ2ByoMBq6k

[equicom]

How it played out...

Spirit One forgot he was French and ran the best race of his life.

Archipenko rated well and tracked the leaders throughout, started at well under the true odds but still gave a good account. Finish was a little lacking, however, and he may not have travelled well.

Mount Nelson ran a little better than his form would suggest, although perhaps helped to some extent by the under-performance of some other runners. He was up around the lead for most of the race but couldn't run it right out.

Silverfoot ran a crazy race, being in touch early, dropped right back to 12 off, then came with a late surge out wide to nab the final superfecta slot at huge odds. This effort looks good on paper, but there might be a lot more to this story and a repeat performance at this level is no certainty.

Einstein had no luck early on, slipped back but rallied hard to get into contention mid-race. Effort proved too much and Alborado lacked "persuasive authority". Unlucky and he should improve in better circumstances, although he is probably more suited to G2 or easy G1's (like this one, in fact!).

Stream Cat just wasn't switched on today and his heart was not in the race. Pushed, pulled, and eventually dragged around the track, he was never going to allow Leparoux a chance to smile.

Cloudy's Knight should have stayed at home. Breezed up. That's about it.

[Profiler8]

The french horses are always good, when they travel so far like the US. I think, they are the best in Europe.
Many people bet the English horses in the US, but french horses are the best in Europe in my opinion. But only on the Turf.

Some years ago, I followed french racing and there are often english horses in their french races, sometimes with top performances, but they do not deliver.
But French horses win often in the UK, but they seldom have runners.

Greetings
Tim