Quarter Horse Handicapping

[trying2win]

I don't know if this is the correct section to discuss quarter horse handicapping, but if it's not, a moderator can move it somewhere else at this site.

Anyway, I know quarter horse handicapping is not discussed much at PACE ADVANTAGE, but I'm guessing there are a few loyal followers of this kind of racing. I'm not one of them, mainly because I haven't got a clue what to look for when it comes to handicapping a quarter horse race.

Quarter horse handicapping info seems to be in short supply, but I found a couple of websites that had some articles about this sport:

http://racing.aqha.com/racing/handicapping/index.aspx

http://www.exclamationadrenalinesportsbetting.com/horse-racing.html


If anyone else can suggest some good books, online articles, quarter horse handicapping software, or even if they'd be willing to share some of their own advice on this subject, that would be nice. If I can learn something new about quarter horse handicapping that might be profitable, I'm willing to learn. The toughest part would be trying to fit in more time to handicap some QH races, then put a few bets on them ....but that's possible if I could learn to make a profit on a few QH spot plays here and there. :)

I'm sure racetracks or ADW'S that offer quarter horse racing either on full cards or part cards mixed in with thoroughbred racing, would welcome addtional betting on QH races.

Thanks,

T2W

[46zilzal]

Carroll's book on speed is the best..

This comes from a long time Los Al fan from the days of Kaweah Bar

[juanepstein]

a walking QH is a winning QH.

do your capping find out whos the best. then look at the post parade and see which QH's are walking calm in addition to your capping.

its hard to see sometimes because some tracks outriders trot to fast in the post parade.

los al is pretty good at a nice calm post parade.

[big frank]

just like thoroughbreds @ trotters , the trainers are very important. Just like the other 2 illegal drugs are a big factor.. My best plays at Los Al are horses stepping up in class off a big figure race.Horses move quickly up the ladder.. Bris @ tsn have good speed figs, but out of town figures at small tracks always look better than the los al horses but disregard them . They are inflated.

[toetoe]

Agreed, Carroll is great. :ThmbUp:

I urge you to not disclude the kwottahs at the fairs (nor the other breeds, for that matter). :ThmbUp:

[sonnyp]

go to the los alamitos website, click on the handicapping tab. you'll find two guys with contact information.+

1. the "amazingly knowledgable" les onaka
2. long time track announger and equally knowledgable ed burgart

these guys are phenomenal

[Tom]

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/Quarter%20Horse%20Handicapping%20(2003).pdf

[Zaf]

Agree, Carroll's book is very good.

The guru on QH's is definately Les Onaka.


http://lesonaka.com/about.htm


Z

[dav4463]

I might be tempted to play them, but the DRF never has any stats on the jockeys or trainers.

When I have looked at them, it seems a good start is important. A fast breaking horse who has two slow breaking horses on either side or a fast breaking horse on the outside has a better chance of a good start. A guy I know who plays them told me that so I have no stats to back it up.
Still though, they bump each other more than greyhounds when the gate opens!

870 yard races: class, early speed, and most importantly...an inside post position.

[ranchwest]

For straight races, some horses do better on the inside or outside.

For shorter races, a muscular rump is good.

For hooks (around a turn) that start near the turn, the inside is a big advantage.

Learn the class ladder.

[BombsAway Bob]

I might be tempted to play them, but the DRF never has any stats on the jockeys or trainers.

When I have looked at them, it seems a good start is important. A fast breaking horse who has two slow breaking horses on either side or a fast breaking horse on the outside has a better chance of a good start. A guy I know who plays them told me that so I have no stats to back it up.
Still though, they bump each other more than greyhounds when the gate opens!

870 yard races: class, early speed, and most importantly...an inside post position.
The last year & a half, I've bought my LOS AL PP's directly from www.losalamitos.com (http://www.losalamitos.com/) . They're the most up-to-date for jock/trainer stats, plus they have wind speed/direction on QH races. They look a LOT like DRF PP's, which I enjoy. Buy 40 racecards for $30; use ANYTIME, not 40 consecutive cards. Ed Burgart's Handicapping Page & the Los AL wagering sheet are also head & shoulders above all other (QH & T'Bred) free handicapping tools offered out there.
Plus, it's worth playing. Pick-4 Pools tonight, a Thursday, were +$79k & +$54k. Sunday's Early P4 pool was +$118K, & the late one over $59k. That's good value for a small late-night track! :jump:

[QH-MAN]

If you want to improve your quarter horse handicapping you need read the book by Steve Sharp "Fast Horses, Fast Money". This is an excellent book and it covers the basics of quarter horse racing. I was a long time thoroughbred handicapper that switched to quarter horses. The money is much easier once you learn the game.


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[LottaKash]

Thx all presenters, for the info on 1/4's.......

For me, I have gone as far as I think I can go in Harness Racing, love it still, but perhaps a change may be in order......the game can be very re-warding at times, but mostly it is a stale pallette this time of year...

I have always had a certain fascination in the 4's, but never pursued it due to un-availability of the product. But, with the advent of the Internet, I just may pursue a new way of living at the races.....we'll see.....

I always enjoy the sheer speed of it all.....Those big-fat Asses and all...

Occasionally I will make fun bets at Los Alamitos, after the night Harness is over, ....I will usually bet a longshot or two when he is named 1st or 2d by Chris's picks, and that announcer knows his stuff as well....Without keeping score I do believe that I am miles ahead of that place, tho betting only pennies.......

best,

best,

[nomadpat]

I make my own speed figures for Los Alamitos. Used to do other tracks but it got to be too much work and they don't time the final 1/8. Some of the problems involved: making pars (not as many races as TB tracks and there are tracks like HOU where the wind is almost constant headwind). So it is tricky to get good pars and there isn't a commercial source like TB so you have to do your own.
Another challenge was track to track adjustments. Establishing a daily track variant has its challenges too, like track slowing down, wind picking up, etc. There have been days at RUI in the All American qualifiers where it was a strong head wind in the morning and an opposite tail wind in the afternoon.

I'll clue you into where my edge is at Los Al - late speed (the only QH track to time the final 1/8 in races). This goes against the grain of everyone focusing on the break. But when I researched why horses with good speed figures would lose, it was usually to horses with good late numbers. I use this in two scenarios, when horses are near even on speed figs - play the better late; and also when a horse has trouble at the break but runs late, people will overlook due to the trouble. These are good bets because if they can figure it out early, you know they'll finish. I really wish more QH tracks would time the final 1/8, then I would expand my coverage.

Best of luck!

[LottaKash]

I'll clue you into where my edge is at Los Al - late speed (the only QH track to time the final 1/8 in races). This goes against the grain of everyone focusing on the break. . These are good bets because if they can figure it out early, you know they'll finish. I really wish more QH tracks would time the final 1/8, then I would expand my coverage.

Best of luck!

Nomadpat, thx for your post....I was wondering, of the tracks that you play the 4's, how, on a scale of 1 to 10, would you rate the sophistication of the betting crowd.??...It seems, on the surface, that the crowd at LosAl is fairly good at voting for the best contenders in most races.........

Also, how do you feel about 4-1/2f races ?...do many t-breds race in those affairs?.

I do not use the past-performances for the 4's, where and how cheaply can you acquire them ???

best,

[exactaplayer]

years ago I read a book about 1/4 horse racing. Do not recall the title or the author but, this guy said he made a profit betting either the inside two or the outside two in exacta boxes. Over a season he caught enough long shot "suck alongs" to show a profit. I made an attempt at getting past results from a track near me but had no luck. If anyone here has the data it might be worth a look see.

[BombsAway Bob]

Nomadpat, thx for your post....I was wondering, of the tracks that you play the 4's, how, on a scale of 1 to 10, would you rate the sophistication of the betting crowd.??...It seems, on the surface, that the crowd at LosAl is fairly good at voting for the best contenders in most races.........
Also, how do you feel about 4-1/2f races ?...do many t-breds race in those affairs?.
I do not use the past-performances for the 4's, where and how cheaply can you acquire them ???
best,
The last year & a half, I've bought my LOS AL PP's directly from www.losalamitos.com (http://www.losalamitos.com/) . They're the most up-to-date for jock/trainer stats, plus they have wind speed/direction on QH races. They look a LOT like DRF PP's, which I enjoy. Buy 40 racecards for $30; use ANYTIME, not 40 consecutive cards. Ed Burgart's Handicapping Page & the Los AL wagering sheet are also head & shoulders above all other (QH & T'Bred) free handicapping tools offered out there.
Plus, it's worth playing. Pick-4 Pools on a recent Thursday, were +$79k & +$54k. A recent Sunday Early P4 pool was +$118K, & the late one over $59k. That's good value for a small late-night track!

[nomadpat]

Nomadpat, thx for your post....I was wondering, of the tracks that you play the 4's, how, on a scale of 1 to 10, would you rate the sophistication of the betting crowd.??...It seems, on the surface, that the crowd at LosAl is fairly good at voting for the best contenders in most races.........

Also, how do you feel about 4-1/2f races ?...do many t-breds race in those affairs?.

I do not use the past-performances for the 4's, where and how cheaply can you acquire them ???

best,

Los Al is definitely the most sophisticated of the QH crowds. I can see it in the betting patterns when certain horses get bet down in the last minute that I expect to be lower odds than shown on the tote. I think the best circuit for finding overlays is the Louisiana circuit. New Mexico runs the fastest times and is equal or slightly better top to bottom quality of horse wise as Los Al, but the handle on some of their races leaves much to be desired. Handle at Los Al is always better than other tracks. The track variants at Los Al have a smaller range than other venues, which dampens the longshot potential.

As far as PPs, I download the .50 TSN data file and extract the data from it to create my own integrated with my speed figures.

For the 4.5f Tbred affairs, I just use CJ's figs, and spread a little when playing pick-4s.

[ManeMediaMogul]

I handicap Quarter Horses with the same techniques I use with Thoroughbred sprints with excellent success. Obviously, speed figures, early speed and current condition are the primary factors.

Interestingly enough, one of the best angles in Quarter Horse racing is "lone speed." (Don't laugh, it's true!)

The break is ultra-important and often gate troubles or bumping from other entrants often keep the best horse from winning, but like every other form of pari-mutuel wagering, overlays are the key.

[QH-MAN]

exactaplayer

TSN has archived charts for just .50. you can get them for any track and any year. I use the for them all the time for research.


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[QH-MAN]

nomadpat

Very interesting post, I have never thought of that angle.

I also make my own racing form using TSN files. You can use the "Comparative Track Speed Index Chart" from the AQHA web site as your baseline par numbers. They are not perfect, but will get you close and you can tweak them from there. The TSN files have wind and direction and I use that in my speed figure calculations. All this takes a little work to get it normalized across tracks, but worth the effort.

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[completebill]

The first 1/4 horse race I ever saw was a 7 horse photo for the win!! This kept me away for many years.
When I again got interested, I worked diligently making my own variants, speed figures, adjustment charts, etc. I had only limited success.
Finally, I started asking questions of my law partner. He's a lousy bettor, but is the best natural handicapper I have ever met or even heard of. He picks a huge % of winners @ the harness races, @ the dogs, and the TBs. A TERRIFIC quareter horse handicapper!
He told me to FORGET the speed figs, and pay attention, in approximate order, to CLASS, Jockey, post position, and trainer.
He was right---I now make a few bucks on my irregular forays into 1/4 betting!!

[Alyblakester]

Los Al does QH's right but their fields are rather small. I've bet the Quarters at both Los Al and Delta primarily - I'm not afraid of them but I prefer the TB's although, to tell ya the truth, the Quarters might be easier.

[nomadpat]

QH-MAN,

Nice to hear someone else is making speed figs for QH races!
Yes I know about the TSN files having the wind speed/direction and use them to build the PPs. It is funny how their .50 files have the info but the 1.00 BRIS ones don't :confused:

I studied the Comparative Speed Index Chart and found some discrepancies - those being distances at tracks not run as often as the same distance at other tracks so that skews the times. For example, 300 yards, a lot of races at Los Al are run at that distance but at NM, not so much. I played around with taking some averages or best times on non-windy days as samples, but as weird as it sounds, found that a 5K Claimer from DED is close enough in quality to a 5K claimer from New Mex. There are a lot of people who would argue otherwise, but once you adjust for the daily variants, I ended up not making track-to-track adjustments. I might have to re-look at that issue when I get around to doing other tracks again. My findings confirmed when that horse from DED (Jet Black Patriot) ran second in the All American at RUI this year - his figs from DED that I gave him put him right there and he ran to his figs so not sure how much adjusting I would need to do.

As far as establishing pars, I built a database of about 43,000 races from all tracks from 2000 on - I extracted the running lines and kept the info, like time, wind, date, condition, class, restrictions, etc. So when I would start out at a track, I would be able to filter and see how many races had wind issues and maybe relax restrictions to get a little bigger sample. With the bigger tracks, there is more of a sample at each class/age/etc level to get decent averages. The good news is that since I have this data, I don't have to start over if I start doing other tracks than Los Al again.

Look forward to more discussions about QH figs!

[strapper]

My personal all time best day as a public handicapper came on my 2nd week on the job during the QH meet at Delta. I had 9 of 11 on top - haven't topped that yet after 20+ years.

[QH-MAN]

nomadpat

Very interesting post on how you did your pars. You sound a little like me, I enjoy the process of make the speed figures as much as the races.

One quick question....How to go from the TSN Files to your database? I run mine through an excel macro first and then import them into the database. You probably have a better way.

Jet Black Patriot is the most impressive horse I have seen in while. He is big and black and looks the part of a champion. I went to EVD a few weeks ago to watch him run. He enters the paddock and he never stops walking. He does not enter the stall. They saddle him walking and they keep him moving until the post parade. The race he ran was just as impressive as he looks. He broke last,went around a horse and won by 1 1/2 lengths. He ran just 0.1 of a second off of the track record.

The only quarter horse that I remember as more impressive looking was a horse called "Whizin" (maybe misspelled) back in the 80's at Delta Downs. He was a huge buckskin who barely fit in the gate. He would win 12 of 14 a year. When he ran there would be a 1000 more people at the track to watch him.
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[cj]

The last year & a half, I've bought my LOS AL PP's directly from www.losalamitos.com (http://www.losalamitos.com/) . They're the most up-to-date for jock/trainer stats, plus they have wind speed/direction on QH races. They look a LOT like DRF PP's, which I enjoy. Buy 40 racecards for $30; use ANYTIME, not 40 consecutive cards. Ed Burgart's Handicapping Page & the Los AL wagering sheet are also head & shoulders above all other (QH & T'Bred) free handicapping tools offered out there.
Plus, it's worth playing. Pick-4 Pools on a recent Thursday, were +$79k & +$54k. A recent Sunday Early P4 pool was +$118K, & the late one over $59k. That's good value for a small late-night track!

You can say that again. :rolleyes:

[QH-MAN]

strapper

Glad to see someone from my neck of the woods!

I am from southeast Texas and have been going to Delta Downs for over 30 years. More back in the 70's and 80's before beyer speed figures gave everyone information that many of us spent hours with the racing form collecting. Now it is nearly impossible to beat the takeout in thoroughbred racing. That's why I bet quarter horses now. The work I put into handicapping quarter horses is rewarded. Before I started betting quarter horse in 2006 the only races I bet for the last 10 or 15 years were the 3 Triple Crowns races, the Breeder's Cup races and a few trips a year to DeD. I never lost my love for the sport, just was not willing to donate money. I am not much of a gambler or action player and knew when to fold a bad hand.

Delta Downs is the best track for watching races. You can see the whole track, you do not lose horses behind the tote board. It is a shame they do not have more betting windows outside, they are mainly concerned with their slots. If you are still working at Delta Downs give Don Stevens my compliments, he is one the best Quarter Horse Handicapper I have seen at any track. I will admit I cuss him some days when he gives out my overlays :)

Best of luck strapper, maybe this is the year you break you record of 9 out of 11

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