Curlin to the Woodward

[Spectacular Sid]

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/curlins-next-start-is/

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horses/2008-08-05-curlin-woodward-stakes_N.htm


Sounds like an attempt for a Classic repeat may not happen.

[cj]

Big Brown's connections will duck him at all costs, despite what big mouth Dutrow says.

[46zilzal]

Big Brown's connections will duck him at all costs, despite what big mouth Dutrow says.
The result of that interaction would be downright embarrassing.....Much worse that old Bid's having Affirmed hand him his head all the while old Buddy D was mouthng off (not to the same degree mind you, but with the same intent: The best horse ever to look through a bridle!!!......)

I think being too close to a horse (like many a trainer I know) screws up objectivity altogether.

[ezrabrooks]

The result of that interaction would be downright embarrassing.....Much worse that old Bid's having Affirmed hand him his head all the while old Buddy D was mouthng off (not to the same degree mind you, but with the same intent: The best horse ever to look through a bridle!!!......)

I think being too close to a horse (like many a trainer I know) screws up objectivity altogether.

What? Affirmed won by less than a length, going the ole JCGC distance of 12F. The Bid hardly had his head handed to him... Buddy may have been a loudmouth...but he danced every dance with The Bid..

Ez

[46zilzal]

What? Affirmed won by less than a length, going the ole JCGC distance of 12F. The Bid hardly had his head handed to him... Buddy may have been a loudmouth...but he danced every dance with The Bid..

I have watched that race over 50 times and FOUR times Shoe moved and Affirmed flipped him off. You rarely see a speed horse fend off that many challenges and then have enough left to finish up.

Laffit stated it perfectly: "I don't know what they still try, NO one can beat him"
Laz:"He's tougher than a five cent steak"

They could have raced 10 times that Fall and the result would be just the same.

[cj]

What? Affirmed won by less than a length, going the ole JCGC distance of 12F. The Bid hardly had his head handed to him... Buddy may have been a loudmouth...but he danced every dance with The Bid..

Ez

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Big Brown would do well to come as close as Bid did, or as close as Affiremed could get to the mighty Slew.

[Burls]

Enough of BB talk, I say.
The important thing is that Curlin is back on the dirt where he belongs.
I hope this means that the turf plan has been given the permanent heave ho.

[cj]

They said the Arc is out for this year.

[46zilzal]

They said the Arc is out for this year.
It would appear that is a very good choice

[wegoosewe]

They also said he might be back for a 5 year old campaign. I will find the link where i read that when i get a chance

[MickJ26]

Reading between the lines of Jess Jackson's interview on drf.com it looks like Curlin and Big Brown might finally meet in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Both camps are pointing to this race.

[classhandicapper]

The result of that interaction would be downright embarrassing.....Much worse that old Bid's having Affirmed hand him his head all the while old Buddy D was mouthng off (not to the same degree mind you, but with the same intent: The best horse ever to look through a bridle!!!......)

I think being too close to a horse (like many a trainer I know) screws up objectivity altogether.

For someone that is constantly talking about pace I thought you would have noticed that Affirmed got the the best of pace setup that day. With a more neutral trip the finish might have been reversed (not to mention that Affirmed had the maturity edge)

In addition, I was tracking biases in those days. What is less known is that the inside part of the track was not as good that day and Shoemaker took Bid inside of Affirmed to make his run.

[Bubbles]

Reading between the lines of Jess Jackson's interview on drf.com it looks like Curlin and Big Brown might finally meet in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Both camps are pointing to this race. Part of me hopes this happens, but another part doesn't.

If you put Curlin and Big Brown in the JCGC, who'd run against them? Commentator? Possibly, but 10 poles is probably too long for him to run his race. Macho Again and Pyro, one of whom probably wins the Travers? Perhaps, but they're not in the same area code as the top two. Would a West Coast horse ship over, then ship BACK for the BC?

If I'm NYRA, this race needs to be a match race of epic proportions or the rebellion against the synthetic BC with all the best horses on actual dirt (like Commentator and others). I don't see much of a middle ground unless you want a 4 or 5-horse field for the biggest race of Belmont's fall meet.

[foregoforever]

What? Affirmed won by less than a length, going the ole JCGC distance of 12F. The Bid hardly had his head handed to him... Buddy may have been a loudmouth...but he danced every dance with The Bid..


After his 4-year-old season, I was of the opinion that Bud might have been right with his boast about The Bid. Were it not for Franklin, we'd be debating Secretariat vs. The Bid as the best in our lifetimes.

As for the JCGC, it's no shame for a great 3yo to be beaten by a great 4yo. That race did them both proud.

[sandpit]

Part of me hopes this happens, but another part doesn't.

If you put Curlin and Big Brown in the JCGC, who'd run against them? Commentator? Possibly, but 10 poles is probably too long for him to run his race. Macho Again and Pyro, one of whom probably wins the Travers? Perhaps, but they're not in the same area code as the top two. Would a West Coast horse ship over, then ship BACK for the BC?



I'm a big Commentator fan, but if he has to face those two, I think he winds up third.

Maybe NYRA should change the race back to it's old :2: mile distance, then Evening Attire could run right by them all :jump:

[098poi]

Pleased to see Curlin is officially running again and the idea that he will run as a five year old is even more exciting. :ThmbUp: Would be great for race fans but I'll believe it when I see it!

[PaceAdvantage]

I think being too close to a horse (like many a trainer I know) screws up objectivity altogether.Or being too far away...

[PaceAdvantage]

Enough of BB talk, I say.Why? I guess winning 85% of your races, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness among them, just doesn't do it like it used to....:rolleyes:

[Gorgeous George]

i dont know why everyone in these forums keep talking about Big Brown and Curlin in the breeders cup classic when the favourite is the immensly talented irish raider Henrythenavigator. The fact is if this horse can adapt to the surface he will destroy both horses. He is a dual guineas winner and has won four group ones on the bounce. I would love to see him win it in honour of his former stablemate George Washington.

[Shenanigans]

Why? I guess winning 85% of your races, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness among them, just doesn't do it like it used to....:rolleyes:

Maybe because this thread is titled "Curlin to the Woodward" and not "Let's Talk About BB Again"....:rolleyes:

[MickJ26]

Part of me hopes this happens, but another part doesn't.

If you put Curlin and Big Brown in the JCGC, who'd run against them? Commentator? Possibly, but 10 poles is probably too long for him to run his race. Macho Again and Pyro, one of whom probably wins the Travers? Perhaps, but they're not in the same area code as the top two. Would a West Coast horse ship over, then ship BACK for the BC?

If I'm NYRA, this race needs to be a match race of epic proportions or the rebellion against the synthetic BC with all the best horses on actual dirt (like Commentator and others). I don't see much of a middle ground unless you want a 4 or 5-horse field for the biggest race of Belmont's fall meet.


Commentator is definitely not a mile and a quarter horse, but, I'm sure Nick Zito will enter Da Tara and probably one other. Either way it'll generate plenty of conversation.

[46zilzal]

For someone that is constantly talking about pace I thought you would have noticed that Affirmed got the the best of pace setup that day. With a more neutral trip the finish might have been reversed (not to mention that Affirmed had the maturity edge)

I
When you are out front YOU dictate the pace, pick the best part of the course and MAKE them play your game: that is what speed horses always do. Given the "cat and mouse" philosophy that day, Bid could never overtake him not if they raced twenty times.

[Tom]

Part of me hopes this happens, but another part doesn't.

If you put Curlin and Big Brown in the JCGC, who'd run against them? Commentator? Possibly, but 10 poles is probably too long for him to run his race. Macho Again and Pyro, one of whom probably wins the Travers? Perhaps, but they're not in the same area code as the top two. Would a West Coast horse ship over, then ship BACK for the BC?

If I'm NYRA, this race needs to be a match race of epic proportions or the rebellion against the synthetic BC with all the best horses on actual dirt (like Commentator and others). I don't see much of a middle ground unless you want a 4 or 5-horse field for the biggest race of Belmont's fall meet.

NYRA should pull out the stops and make this purse 5 million smackers! Take on the Polyester Cup and give the real champions a home on dirt for the HOY title. Pay big bucks to 5th, make it inviting.

[Tom]

When you are out front YOU dictate the pace, pick the best part of the course and MAKE them play your game: that is what speed horses always do. Given the "cat and mouse" philosophy that day, Bid could never overtake him not if they raced twenty times. But Exceller did...remember that classic match up of two Triple Crown champions, and BOTH LOST! :lol:

The old boy came from north Philly to run them down. Great race.

[MickJ26]

NYRA should pull out the stops and make this purse 5 million smackers! Take on the Polyester Cup and give the real champions a home on dirt for the HOY title. Pay big bucks to 5th, make it inviting.



1-NYRA wouldn't have any idea how to promote such an event.
2-A "match race" would dredge up sad memories of Ruffian.
3-If California still had traditional dirt, Curlin would probably be prepping right now for the Pacific Classic and Breeder's Cup.

[classhandicapper]

When you are out front YOU dictate the pace, pick the best part of the course and MAKE them play your game: that is what speed horses always do. Given the "cat and mouse" philosophy that day, Bid could never overtake him not if they raced twenty times.

Races don't always develop in a way that allows a horse of Affirmed's caliber to crawl early. With any other quality speed in the race, a neutral pace scenario would have developed. I am not talking about a fast pace, just neutral. The pace was not neutral. In addition, I doubt that the path Shoemaker chose into the stretch was entirely based on what Affirmed was doing (even though he was well out on the track). I think it had more to do with Shoemaker (a CA rider) not knowing where the best path was and simply taking the shortest distance between two points (IMO the wrong choice). Coastal also ran very well on the rail.

IMO that result may not have determined who was best.

[Burls]

Why? I guess winning 85% of your races, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness among them, just doesn't do it like it used to....:rolleyes:
Look at the title of the thread, my good man.

[46zilzal]

Races don't always develop in a way that allows a horse of Affirmed's caliber to crawl early. With any other quality speed in the race, a neutral pace scenario would have developed. I am not talking about a fast pace, just neutral. The pace was not neutral. In addition, I doubt that the path Shoemaker chose into the stretch was entirely based on what Affirmed was doing (even though he was well out on the track). I think it had more to do with Shoemaker (a CA rider) not knowing where the best path was and simply taking the shortest distance between two points (IMO the wrong choice). Coastal also ran very well on the rail.

IMO that result may not have determined who was best.
Shoe, at that point in his great career, not knowing how to read the best path is downright laughable. He had to take what the pacesetter left him: as it ALWAYS is in match races within a race. It is nothing like a real race and only Coastal was capable of interacting with either of them.

[PaceAdvantage]

But Exceller did...remember that classic match up of two Triple Crown champions, and BOTH LOST! :lol:

The old boy came from north Philly to run them down. Great race.Everytime I watch that race, my jaw drops anew at just how absolutely amazing Seattle Slew was, even in defeat.

Now there is a race to watch and exclaim "They just don't make anymore like they used to...."

[classhandicapper]

Shoe, at that point in his great career, not knowing how to read the best path is downright laughable. He had to take what the pacesetter left him: as it ALWAYS is in match races within a race. It is nothing like a real race and only Coastal was capable of interacting with either of them.

I think you missed my point. The race development was not typical for a Grade 1 race because there was no other quality speed and the field was very small. Given the actual development, the outcome was predictable. That's a different issue than who would have won under more typical pace circumstances or if there was no bias. IMO, that's a much tougher call.

You can't be observing riders and path biases very carefully. Otherwise you'd have some recollection of horses ridden by top LOCAL riders that lost because they were taken to a bad part of the track, let alone a rider from the opposite coast.

All I am saying is that I think that result was not as conclusive as a causal observer of the PPs/Chart would think. I was there and following the game in NY very closely at the time.

[joanied]

They said the Arc is out for this year.

I think that's a good call... if they keep him in training as a 5 yr old, then maybe he'd do well in the Arc... I didn't think it was such a good idea from the get-go.

One good thing about Curlin getting a race over the grass is that he probably will like the artificial surface if he goes in the BC Classic.
I hope they run him next year...as a 5 yr. old, geeze... gives me goosebumps thinking about this horse as a 5 year old!!!

[joanied]

I'm a big Commentator fan, but if he has to face those two, I think he winds up third.

Maybe NYRA should change the race back to it's old :2: mile distance, then Evening Attire could run right by them all :jump:

WOW:jump: would that be incredible or what...never happen, the 2 miles, but, it would be great...

[joanied]

Everytime I watch that race, my jaw drops anew at just how absolutely amazing Seattle Slew was, even in defeat.

Now there is a race to watch and exclaim "They just don't make anymore like they used to...."

Exceller was incredible that day...that race still brings tears to my eyes...

and remember, Turner was totally against sending Slew into thta race...and he was right, but on pure heart & class, Slew was outstanding!!

[Cratos]

I think you missed my point. The race development was not typical for a Grade 1 race because there was no other quality speed and the field was very small. Given the actual development, the outcome was predictable. That's a different issue than who would have won under more typical pace circumstances or if there was no bias. IMO, that's a much tougher call.

You can't be observing riders and path biases very carefully. Otherwise you'd have some recollection of horses ridden by top LOCAL riders that lost because they were taken to a bad part of the track, let alone a rider from the opposite coast.

All I am saying is that I think that result was not as conclusive as a causal observer of the PPs/Chart would think. I was there and following the game in NY very closely at the time.

"Class" I am agreeing with you (I thinK) because the 1978 JCGC was between a very good 3yo who would become great and was a true 1 ¼ to 1 ½ mile horse in Affirmed and who didn’t quit; and a great 4yo in Seattle Slew whose best distance was 1 1/8 miles, but could get the 1 ¼ to 1 ½ mile distance and also would not quit.

Given the aggressiveness and tenacity of those two horses with the early fractions they cut, :45 and change for the half and 1:09 and change for the 6f. Exceller an excellent closer with class became a beneficiary of the upfront speed battle.

Take either horse out of the race with the other left in and Exceller is not the winner. This race wasn’t won by some astute path decision-making by Shoemaker and I like you was there.

[46zilzal]

"Class" I am agreeing with you (I thinK) .

Nope wrong year as we were discussing the Affirmed/Bid/Coastal race.

[46zilzal]

You can't be observing riders and path biases very carefully. Otherwise you'd have some recollection of horses ridden by top LOCAL riders that lost because they were taken to a bad part of the track, let alone a rider from the opposite coast.


One of the reasons certain riders are LEGNEDS is their ability to pick up, within a race or two, as Laffit did all the time, the best part of the course. SHoe was one of the best - always was, but when YOU can't get the path that is best, you have to take what is left...period.

That was a match race within a race not any different than any of the Easy Goe/Sunday Silence races or Affirmed/ALYDAR. The rabbit moves quickly, gets position (just like Zev over Papyrus, Convenience over Tyecast, Nashua over Swaps, Seabiscuit over War Admiral), then goes as slow as possible staying ahead just enough to be fresh when the final move comes at him.

[classhandicapper]

One of the reasons certain riders are LEGNEDS is their ability to pick up, within a race or two, as Laffit did all the time, the best part of the course. SHoe was one of the best - always was, but when YOU can't get the path that is best, you have to take what is left...period.

That was a match race within a race not any different than any of the Easy Goe/Sunday Silence races or Affirmed/ALYDAR. The rabbit moves quickly, gets position (just like Zev over Papyrus, Convenience over Tyecast, Nashua over Swaps, Seabiscuit over War Admiral), then goes as slow as possible staying ahead just enough to be fresh when the final move comes at him.

I agree that the best riders often pick up path biases quicker than the average Joe. That's one thing that contribues to their success. But the fact remains that Shoe went inside Affirmed into the stretch when he was outside him the entire race. I am sure Affirmed was well out on the track specifically because those were best paths, but it was still Shoe's choice to take the inside rather than lose some ground staying outside. IMO (being a CA rider), he did not know where the best paths were. Doesn't matter though. Bid was on a bad path and bad paths are not there most of the time. He was at a unique disadvantage.

I actually still have that Daily Racing Form at home somewhere. If I have some extra time, I'll look for it and see how many other mounts Shoe had that day (if any) to help him figure out the track.

I also agree that the horse with more speed tends to have a tactical advantage over a similar rival that comes from further back (on most dirt tracks). However, that advantage varies with pace. When you are allowed to absolutely crawl early to secure favorable position like Affirmed did, the advantage widens relative to a race where the pace is fast and field larger and the speedier horse is used a little to gain the favorable position. Assuming an "average field" of Grade 1 horses, Affirmed would have been used harder early.

We are talking about 2 horses that finished within a length of each other where one of the two had two distinct, but difficult to measure disadvantages relative to the norm.

I think you are crazy if you think you know for sure which of the two was actually the better horse. If anything, I would have taken Bid in the rematch because most people wouldn't have noticed the path bias and also would have misunderstood the impact of the pace advantage. Thus Affirmed would have been a big favorite in the rematch when it should have been a pickem race.

Actually, I probably would have played Coastal over Affirmed in the rematch also. Coastal was buried in there for awhile (He liked to race inside. If I recall he had a problem with one eye).

[toetoe]

zilzal,

What about the tortoise and the hare ? As I recall, the tortoise sprouted

wings late.

[PaceAdvantage]

Exceller was incredible that day...that race still brings tears to my eyes...Not for me...my tears are reserved for Seattle Slew....Exceller benefitted from a torrid early speed duel between Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Life's Hope.

The fact that Seattle Slew lost this race by a NOSTRIL is absolutely the most amazing performance I think I've ever seen...

Add to this the fact that Seattle Slew pulled a "Barbaro" and broke through the gate before the race....

[joanied]

Not for me...my tears are reserved for Seattle Slew....Exceller benefitted from a torrid early speed duel between Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Life's Hope.

The fact that Seattle Slew lost this race by a NOSTRIL is absolutely the most amazing performance I think I've ever seen...

Add to this the fact that Seattle Slew pulled a "Barbaro" and broke through the gate before the race....

PA....me too...it's just that Exceller's run on the turn took my breath away...it was amazing how much ground he made up....but yeah, Slew was beyond amazing...any other horse could not have done what he did...to come back and nearly win...that day, in narrow defeat, Seattle Slew showed the world what a true champion is made of...class, courage, charisma. Slew was one in a million, a champion among champions!!!

[46zilzal]

If BID and Affirmed had raced that season once a month, just like in 99% of match races, Affirmed would have toyed with him.

History dictates match races usually go to the first one out of the gate and that would be Affirmed every time..to go to the front and just PLAY withe the slower (gate speed) animal

Or are all those famous match races (which was essentially what that was) exceptions?

[46zilzal]

Actually, I probably would have played Coastal over Affirmed in the rematch also. Coastal was buried in there for awhile (He liked to race inside. If I recall he had a problem with one eye).
Blind in one eye ...if you were not aware of that you might think he was rank as he cranked his head out to his right all the time

[JeremyJet]

Based on the winners Beyer for the Million [103], CURLIN would have had a great shot at a G1 on the turf.

JeremyJet

[Cratos]

If BID and Affirmed had raced that season once a month, just like in 99% of match races, Affirmed would have toyed with him.

History dictates match races usually go to the first one out of the gate and that would be Affirmed every time..to go to the front and just PLAY withe the slower (gate speed) animal

Or are all those famous match races (which was essentially what that was) exceptions?

This I will agree you because as a 4yo and Pincay aboard, Affirmed was a monster that the "Bid could never handle

[classhandicapper]

Not for me...my tears are reserved for Seattle Slew....Exceller benefitted from a torrid early speed duel between Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Life's Hope.

The fact that Seattle Slew lost this race by a NOSTRIL is absolutely the most amazing performance I think I've ever seen...

Add to this the fact that Seattle Slew pulled a "Barbaro" and broke through the gate before the race....

I was there that day too (and wearing a Seattle Slew shirt).

I was a huge Slew fan. I was so upset about the defeat on the bus ride home, these days my friend tells me that he was getting very worried about me. ;)

It really was one of the greatest performances I ever saw when you consider that Exceller was not some chump that took advantage of the trip. He was a terrific horse in his own right and Slew was coming again at him. A couple of more strides and I think he retakes the lead! Damn, I'm upset again. :rolleyes:

[classhandicapper]

If BID and Affirmed had raced that season once a month, just like in 99% of match races, Affirmed would have toyed with him.

History dictates match races usually go to the first one out of the gate and that would be Affirmed every time..to go to the front and just PLAY withe the slower (gate speed) animal

Or are all those famous match races (which was essentially what that was) exceptions?

The sample of actual match races is very small and probably somewhat misleading about how much of a tactical advantage speed actually is. To being with, with a two horse race, all else being equal, speed should win 50% of the time. Since the better horse typically has more speed to begin with, that adds some more. Its the remainder that tells you how much the tactical advantage is actually worth.

There are examples of very small fields (approximating a match race like this one did) where a major favorite got the lead, ran it's race, but didn't win. It turned out that a horse that raced from behind was superior by just enough to overcome the tactical pace disadvantage and win anyway.

The thing is, I'd bet my life against a dollar that in many of those situations if the closer had to overcome the additional disadvantage of racing on a dead rail through the stretch or while the speed horse was on a golden rail, most would have failed. The fact would remain that the closer WAS the BETTER HORSE by enough to overcome the tactical pace disadvantage, but a very unique incremental set of conditions prevented it from demonstrating it. If they raced 10 times after that on unbiased tracks, the closer would win more often.

In addition, not all races have match race developments even when there are two clear cut standouts like this. In larger fields, the horse with superior speed is often used early attaining position and is actually disadvantaged as a result.

Finally, there are some very famous examples of match races (2 in particular come to mind) where the horse that supposedly had the most early speed did NOT get the lead or win because the horse that typically closed was specifically trained and ridden for speed to take the advantage away.

A modern example is the Great Match Race.

Did anyone think Foolish Pleasure had enough speed to breath down Ruffian's neck like that?

Can anyone be 100% sure if she would have held it together under that kind of pressure from another top horse?

Foolish Pleasure was trained for the match race. In another race with a small feild, Ruffian would probably have gotten a clear lead and loafed because Foolish Pleasure would have been trained in his normal fashion.

Bid was trained to race in an average race where the pace would be neutral, not for a match race where he would have to go toe to toe with Affiirmed. Look at his 2YO record for evidence of his early speed.

I'm sure I will never convince you, but I can assure you do not appreciate what was going on that day and why the result did not prove either way who was the better horse.