Easy way to guess a run style based on chart

[podonne]

Greetings,

I wonder if there's a quick-and-dirty way to evaluate the run style of the winner of a race based on the positions at the various calls. I was thinking maybe the simplest would be to just look at the position at the first call,

1: E
2-4: P
>4: S

(you wouldn't evaluate a race as E/P). I'm just thinking of a quick way to see if the shape of the race was as you expected it.

Thanks,
podonne

[46zilzal]

Doesn't work: in War Emblem's final prep for the Derby he went wire to wire in a LATE style indicating that the Derby distance might be within his reach.

[DJofSD]

To expand and explain the answer by zz, there is more than one way to qualify a horse's running style.

Looking at the result chart and using racing position is a way. Quickest way to quantify a winner that way is to use Quirin Speed Points (QSP). These are included in the BRIS PPs and download data.

What zz is obliquely referring to is measuring the running style by means other than running position and beaten lengths. Typically this is referred to as energy distribution.

War Emblem had a distribution described as sustained. He ran that prep race on the front end. There's not any hard and fast rule that says a sustained horse must run from off the pace -- sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. That's the challenge of pace handicapping.

Good luck.

[Tom]

The visual ESP is useful in that just because a horse on the lead distributes his energy sustaned does not mean he can run from back in the pack. If a need to lead horse fails to get the lead, his third fraction and late energy may never be used as he might give up by being forced outside his comfort zone.

A proper pace analysis, IMHO takes into account not only the velocity aspect of the horse, but his physical preferences as well. I see a lot of early pressers that ususally run well when they are 2-3-4 at the FCP, but put them 5-6, and they do not make their normal run. The horse's 2nd call pace and final fraction, as well as his %E will tell you how he matches up to the field today.

Podonne, that thing that matters is that you understand what you are recording and be consistent in how you do it. I might suggest you add the 2nd call as well and get used to looking at the patterns of the winners. Richie P hit on this in his match up material on Binder's site....visual recognition of what is winning, just positons, not BL's.

You might see this scenario:

4 3
3 3
3 3
5 4


or this:
4 1
3 1
3 2
5 2


Same FCP's but different 2CP's - difference between middle and late moves.

[cj]

War Emblem never ran as a closer. From time to time, his Sartin style ratings showed he could finish well if allowed an uncontested lead. However, most of the time, he did not run "sustained" type races. That includes races both before the Illinois Derby and after the Kentucky Derby.

Clearly, his positional running style was FRONT. His energy, or median, or whatever else you want to call it running style was dependent on how much early pressure he received.

Now, to get back to the original question, the simplest way I've seen to determine running style is to see how the horse's position changes from the pace call (2nd call, 4f in sprints, 6f in routes) to the finish.

[46zilzal]

War Emblem never ran as a closer. From time to time, his Sartin style ratings showed he could finish well if allowed an uncontested lead. However, most of the time, he did not run "sustained" type races. That includes races both before the Illinois Derby and after the Kentucky Derby.

Clearly, his positional running style was FRONT. His energy, or median, or whatever else you want to call it running style was dependent on how much early pressure he received.

Now, to get back to the original question, the simplest way I've seen to determine running style is to see how the horse's position changes from the pace call (2nd call, 4f in sprints, 6f in routes) to the finish.
energy distribution has NOTHING whatsoever to do with POSITION, Never has, never will.
It allows insights that the "herd instinct" of the Brohammer style never comes up with.....

[cj]

I know, I never said it did. I know as much as anyone about Sartin stuff. The point is, the initial post was OBVIOUSLY talking position, and certainly never mentioned energy. You would know this if you actually bothered to read the post.

Do you always base a horse's "style" on one race? Because War Emblem certainly was not a sustained runner before the Illinois Derby, and never ran that way again after the Kentucky Derby. And trust me, I really, really like War Emblem.

[46zilzal]

His last three were sustained before the first Sarturday in May and will reproduce same after this hard drive copies the file to the USB drive: will be in about an hour or so.

[cj]

I don't need your printouts. Here is what I have for his last three races before the Derby:


Spt 04/06/2002 9.0 108 114| 116*
Spt 03/17/2002 8.0 105 96| 106*
FG 02/17/2002 8.5 106 86| 100


Clearly, he was running a lot faster early then late in his two races prior to the Illinois Derby. If you have those as "sustained", especially the race of February 17th, all I can do is laugh.

[podonne]

I know, I never said it did. I know as much as anyone about Sartin stuff. The point is, the initial post was OBVIOUSLY talking position, and certainly never mentioned energy. You would know this if you actually bothered to read the post.

Hi, um sorry to get in the way of that, but I was actually just guessing with that position example, but I would think that "velocity" or any of the pace calculations would be more complicated than I'd like.

Tom suggested the first and the second call positions might work, but I wonder the best way to combine them. Do you think it is related any way to field size? or should a "E\P" horse be 2nd or 3rd even in a 20 horse field.

I just want to quickly glance at a chart and make a rough guess about how the winner ran. Position and\or beaten lengths seem to be the obvious candidates.

[46zilzal]

I don't need your printouts. Here is what I have for his last three races before the Derby:


Spt 04/06/2002 9.0 108 114| 116*
Spt 03/17/2002 8.0 105 96| 106*
FG 02/17/2002 8.5 106 86| 100


Clearly, he was running a lot faster early then late in his two races prior to the Illinois Derby. If you have those as "sustained", especially the race of February 17th, all I can do is laugh.
yes you do since you are evaluating in French and I am evaluating in Spanish....That is about as close as YOUR numbers and mine will ever get since they are derived with a completely different mechanism.

[cj]

yes you do since you are evaluating in French and I am evaluating in Spanish....That is about as close as YOUR numbers and mine will ever get since they are derived with a completely different mechanism.



Look, without Sartin software, your answers will do NOTHING to help the guy with his original question. I'll really never get why you try to interject it here.

As for our numbers, They are a lot closer than you would ever guess. All figure calculations, no matter the format, are based on TIME and DISTANCE! I could choose to display my figures in Sartin style format if I so wanted. It wouldn't change anything.

There is simply no way in this world that race of February 17th is "sustained" on Sartin calculations, or any other method for that matter.

[podonne]

Like maybe this:


Public Shared Function EstimateRunStyle(ByVal position_call1 As Integer,
ByVal position_call2 As Integer, ByVal position_stretch As Integer, ByVal
position_finish As Integer) As String
'if he lost ground during between the first and second call,
'use the second call, otherwise, use the first
If position_call2 > position_call1 Then
Select Case position_call2
Case 1 : Return "E"
Case 2 : Return "E\P"
Case 3 : Return "E\P"
Case 4 : Return "P"
Case 5 : Return "P"
Case 6 : Return "P"
Case Else : Return "S"
End Select
Else
Select Case position_call1
Case 1 : Return "E"
Case 2 : Return "E\P"
Case 3 : Return "E\P"
Case 4 : Return "P"
Case 5 : Return "P"
Case 6 : Return "P"
Case Else : Return "S"
End Select
End If
End Function

[cj]

I use a more detailed measurement, but yes, that will work. I like to use only "good" races and the first call.

The important thing is to be consistent and know how you measure it.

[46zilzal]

Look, without Sartin software, your answers will do NOTHING to help the guy with his original question. I'll really never get why you try to interject it here.

.
Simply to show that there is more than one way to look at the same data.

[DJofSD]

cj -- I'm not getting in your face (at least that's not my intention): did you handicap the Red Giant turf race from this last weekend? What do your numbers show for that horse?

[46zilzal]

cj -- I'm not getting in your face (at least that's not my intention): did you handicap the Red Giant turf race from this last weekend? What do your numbers show for that horse?
Third line back for him was the key

[Tom]

I saw three words - easy, style, chart.
Didn't see velocity, software, energy, distribution mentioned. ;)

First, CJ does a remarkabley nice job of not only giving his subscribers a usable profile of early bias every day, his Early Pace number is stand alone in many races and at many tracks. It is truly a number you can put your money on. I know I do. :p

Podonne, I use the first two calls because it breaks down for me, at least, between early and presser types. You might prefer a method Walter Coffey used - horses 1,2,or 3 or within 2 lengths at the first call are F - front runners. Horses in the rear half of the field are R - rear runners. Everything else is an M- middle runner.

[barn32]

I don't need your printouts. Here is what I have for his last three races before the Derby:


Spt 04/06/2002 9.0 108 114| 116*
Spt 03/17/2002 8.0 105 96| 106*
FG 02/17/2002 8.5 106 86| 100


Clearly, he was running a lot faster early then late in his two races prior to the Illinois Derby. If you have those as "sustained", especially the race of February 17th, all I can do is laugh.

How can you determine running style from what you've shown? I don't see any positional calls or beaten lengths. Both are necessary items to determine running style. I don't really know what I'm looking at here.

[cj]

cj -- I'm not getting in your face (at least that's not my intention): did you handicap the Red Giant turf race from this last weekend? What do your numbers show for that horse?

I wouldn't take it that way, no problem. First, they have him as an EP sort, which is pretty much how he ran.

Here was my overall numbers for the race...Red Giant was dominant on them. His last three towered over everyone else in the field.


SAR 08/03/2008 Race 9 5:20 8.5f Turf 39/1 4strdavH-G3 3 yo +

1 Red Giant 5-1 EP 106/3 112 | 110 113 110 91 88 101 102 101 81 90
2 War Monger 9-2 P 95/4 109 : 100 104 103 : 109 111 103 97 99 83
3 Prince Rahy 20-1 EP 89/5 95 100 97 94 95 : 89 98 97 99 96 92
4 Thorn Song 4-1 EP 107/7 86 103 101 102 105 98 103 104 102 93 100
5 Danak 6-1 NA 78/0 113 : 90 | 104 108 109 105 | 104 103 83
6 Stalingrad 15-1 EP 97/7 88 92 99 96 : 95 98 94 64 | 84 67
7 Jungle Fighter 12-1 EP 92/7 79 97 68 | 85 88 96 94 98 96 | 90 99
8 Distorted Reality 15-1 EP 83/3 99 100 97 88 : 92 96 103 105 100 100 107
9 Cosmonaut 5-1 E 101/6 97 106 102 102 105 : 104 108 113 108 104 107
10 Inca King 10-1 EP 104/7 88 106 92 106 100 101 100 97 94 100 95
11 Elusive Fort 15-1 P 87/2 92 : 96 91 96 | X X X X : X : X 97

[cj]

How can you determine running style from what you've shown? I don't see any positional calls or beaten lengths. Both are necessary items to determine running style. I don't really know what I'm looking at here.

I agree, I use position and the figures. However, 46 was talking about energy style running style, as he always does, so I didn't include positional calls. These just show the pace/speed figures of War Emblem (the last is my own overall rating for the race). In the February race, he has a 106 pace and an 86 speed rating, so he was obviously slowing down A LOT.

[Cratos]

Greetings,

I wonder if there's a quick-and-dirty way to evaluate the run style of the winner of a race based on the positions at the various calls. I was thinking maybe the simplest would be to just look at the position at the first call,

1: E
2-4: P
>4: S

(you wouldn't evaluate a race as E/P). I'm just thinking of a quick way to see if the shape of the race was as you expected it.

Thanks,
podonne

There is a very easy and quick way and that is look at each horse’s running line graphically. This will not give you velocity or any of the dynamics of the race, but it visually show you the shape of the race and how each horse’s style fit into that shape.

There has been some posters I think who have posted such graphics on the PA Forum.

[podonne]

There is a very easy and quick way and that is look at each horse’s running line graphically. This will not give you velocity or any of the dynamics of the race, but it visually show you the shape of the race and how each horse’s style fit into that shape.

There has been some posters I think who have posted such graphics on the PA Forum.

Thanks for your comment Cratos. Graphically is less useful for my particular application, since i hope to tell the computer how to calculate and let it go. Now if I can program the intelligence you are seeing in the graphic...

[cj]

Thanks for your comment Cratos. Graphically is less useful for my particular application, since i hope to tell the computer how to calculate and let it go. Now if I can program the intelligence you are seeing in the graphic...

I posted some code I used a long time ago on this site for defining running styles. It has changed somewhat, but it would be a good starting point. Just use the search function and "running styles".

[DJofSD]

There is a very easy and quick way and that is look at each horse’s running line graphically. This will not give you velocity or any of the dynamics of the race, but it visually show you the shape of the race and how each horse’s style fit into that shape.

There has been some posters I think who have posted such graphics on the PA Forum.Those are the Fat Man charts. You might be able to find those postings by looking for the user name then browsing the threads.

[46zilzal]

Funny stuff: POSITION is all about the pace

If I ran against a rail dragster I could run early and positionally be far back
If I ran early against an earth mover, I would be out front.

I would run exactly the same way, but positionally would be all over the place.

If I were a solid sustained horse running in a field of sustained horses, I could be the pacesetter and still run sustained or
I could hang back and press, and still run sustained.

[cj]

Funny stuff: POSITION is all about the pace

If I ran against a rail dragster I could run early and positionally be far back
If I ran early against an earth mover, I would be out front.

I would run exactly the same way, but positionally would be all over the place.

If I were a solid sustained horse running in a field of sustained horses, I could be the pacesetter and still run sustained or
I could hang back and press, and still run sustained.

Some of what you say is true. Some is not. There are horses that won't run unless the position is comfortable too them...for example War Emblem. The ease in attaining his preferred position is what dictated his energy expenditure. Energy expenditure certainly did not dictate his position.

[podonne]

Funny stuff: POSITION is all about the pace

If I ran against a rail dragster I could run early and positionally be far back
If I ran early against an earth mover, I would be out front.

I would run exactly the same way, but positionally would be all over the place.

If I were a solid sustained horse running in a field of sustained horses, I could be the pacesetter and still run sustained or
I could hang back and press, and still run sustained.

I sounds like you are saying that a jockey is told the exact speed to run the race when it starts and whatever happens with the other horses doesn't matter, so we should just look at that horse and not it's relative performance.

I'd think that a jockey might be told, "stay close up and make your move entering the stretch." This command depends entirely on how the other horses run, so position would be key. If two horses took off on a speed duel, the jockey would have to increase the speed a little to keep up, i.e., reacting to what the other horses are doing.

[Tom]

:4::6: If you are saying a horse will run the same first fraction time every race you are dead wrong. Some horses will run whatever it takes to be on the lead.

Horses so not have stop watches, but they sure as heck can see a horse's arse in front of them! :D

[46zilzal]

:4::6: If you are saying a horse will run the same first fraction time every race you are dead wrong. Some horses will run whatever it takes to be on the lead.

Horses so not have stop watches, but they sure as heck can see a horse's arse in front of them! :D
Quote where I mentioned any fraction.....You really like making up things.

[46zilzal]

I'd think that a jockey might be told, "stay close up and make your move entering the stretch." This command depends entirely on how the other horses run, so position would be key. If two horses took off on a speed duel, the jockey would have to increase the speed a little to keep up, i.e., reacting to what the other horses are doing.
Horses run, riders, if anything apportion and hold back the animal.

Horses RUN, riders steer.

Because the running styles, form cycles and varying abilities of the field differ, it is only when TODAY'S field comes together that their relativities become apparent..

[46zilzal]

Over the past two seasons working at the gate, I have come to know a few riders well. MY CONCLUSIONS from talking to them??? Same as I believed before:The horse is the one running: they can't change the horse.

After Bailey won the Classic on Arcagnes everyone wanted to know what HE DID to make the horse win: "I didn't interfere with the horse's own style, I just rode him."

The good ones know that they just steer and keep them out of trouble, but the horse is doing the running which they cannot change.

[Tom]

Quote where I mentioned any fraction.....You really like making up things.


You said.... I would run exactly the same way,

[Charlie D]

Greetings,

I wonder if there's a quick-and-dirty way to evaluate the run style of the winner of a race based on the positions at the various calls.




The HAT

I. Learn to identify the running style of horses., the running style
is essential in learning the Match Up The three styles were names E, P,
S's.

E -- are horses whose past performance shows that they are
early pace horses. Their position at the first call identifies
their early running style. These horse’s run wire-to-wire.

P--are tactical runners that press the early pace. This running
style is where the horse has an up close position at the first
call, and is up close or in the lead at the second call.
Pressers either run in the second or third position..

S -- are horses that come from off the pace. They are horses
that win from way back, and are horses running behind the
pressers. They are late runners that win when the early runners
have exerted their energy.

The jast two running styles are Other Than Early. This used to decide
how today's race will set-up. Early, or Other Than Early.

Not within one length of the leader at the first call


Quick and Dirty = Early or Other than Early

[46zilzal]

Smarty Jones....Came into the Derby as consistent as they come and the exact Derby Profile Sustained, but wait, POSITIONALLY you can't tell

[46zilzal]

Now knowing this one can apportion it's energy through at % median in range for a sophomore the first Saturday in May, in the realm of sustained to late, it shows that 10 furlongs is a possibility for this one.

FOR many others NoBiz, High Fly, Stormello, etc, the rising % median as the distrances get longer tells one,NOT on the first Saturday in May.........

[Irish Boy]

Wait, you're going too fast for the remedial class!

I'm not knowledgable about the Sartin methodology, although I basically know what it is, roughly. It sounds like one person is saying that War Emblem needed the front, regardless of how much energy he was going to expend, while the other person is saying that his use of energy didn't vary much from race to race, regardless of position.

It seems like the horse that can work from off the pace if need be and sustain about the same speed throughout the race (of course, there will be some deceleration late) will be more effective than the horse that needs the front and will use whatever amount of energy is needed to get there. Right? Or do I need to go back to school?

[46zilzal]

No, what I am saying is that OFTEN, QUITE OFTEN, position is NOT the same as energy distribution and am showing a colt that ran mostly sustained races ON THE LEAD. There is not hard and fast rule about any ONE horse but this one was so consistent (% medians) heading toward the Derby that I posted him.

My back up hard drive has the bulk of examples that I am going to post for comparison as soon as I can get to it.

[46zilzal]

The percentage of total energy (sum of the three fractional velocities of the race) expended to the second call.

Rising median versus progressively faster pace to the 2nd call: horse can be in form and cannot keep up.

Rising median versus about the same pace: horse is not keeping up and is telling you it might be going off form. Pico Central showed this pattern as did Street Sense before their respective last races.

Rising median (and usually lower total energy) as distances increase tells you this one is past it's best distance and (i.e.on the Triple Crown trail) is nt going to be competitive at distances longer than it has been trying already.

[cj]

The problem is nobody can ever figure out what you are really trying to say. It sounded to me like you were saying a horse's style is the way he distributes his energy. The problem with that is it varies wildly from race to race for many horses. Position, while hardly an exact science, is much more consistent and easy to determine.

With Smarty Jones, anyone with a decent set of pace and speed figures knew he was running slow early and fast late.


OP 04/10/2004 9.0 11/11 my 104 108| 106*
OP 03/20/2004 8.5 7/ 9 fst 97 114| 106*
OP 02/28/2004 8.0 6/ 9 fst 93 94| 94*
Aqui 01/03/2004 8.3 7/ 7 fst 91 93| 92*
Pha 11/22/2003 7.0 1/11 fst 101 105| 104*
Pha 11/09/2003 6.0 8/10 fst 81 85| 84*


Now, if you are trying to say that had the pace been very fast for the Derby that Smarty would have dropped back to 8th and ran the same race, I have my doubts. The Belmont provided that exact chance, and while many blame Stewart Elliot, you obviously don't because the horse runs and the rider steers, right?

[46zilzal]

Now, if you are trying to say that had the pace been very fast for the Derby that Smarty would have dropped back to 8th and ran the same race, I have my doubts. The Belmont provided that exact chance, and while many blame Stewart Elliot, you obviously don't because the horse runs and the rider steers, right?
This colt outran his pedigree and then some. Running second in that race was a testament to sheer guts. His races projected that he was barely going to get that trip.
Animals run close to their energy requirements based upon what the pace gives them......they react

[cj]

This colt outran his pedigree and then some. Running second in that race was a testament to sheer guts. His races projected that he was barely going to get that trip.

Nice job avoiding the main point. What happens if the pace is a second quicker? Does he hold the same position, or does he drop back to a mid pack position and win from there?

Very few horses can accomplish that, yet you seem to think it is common.

[46zilzal]

Nice job avoiding the main point. What happens if the pace is a second quicker? Does he hold the same position, or does he drop back to a mid pack position and win from there?

Very few horses can accomplish that, yet you seem to think it is common.
Happens all the time....one of the reasons that people cannot understand an "early" horse that comes off the pace. POSITION is predicated by pace, the energy distribution reacts to that pace, which is a potential anyway.

[cj]

Happens all the time....one of the reasons that people cannot understand an "early" horse that comes off the pace. POSITION is predicated by pace, the energy distribution reacts to that pace, which is a potential anyway.

It is MUCH more common for a "sustained" early horse to still go to the front and fold like a cheap tent when the pace gets faster than it is for the same type horse to drop back in the field and make a late run.

Sure, it happens once in a while, but it isn't something a bettor wants to have his money on unless the odds are very generous.

[classhandicapper]

Some of what you say is true. Some is not. There are horses that won't run unless the position is comfortable too them...for example War Emblem. The ease in attaining his preferred position is what dictated his energy expenditure. Energy expenditure certainly did not dictate his position.

It's a pleasure to have people around that understand the game that can also express their thinking in a few clear sentences. That would have taken me 3 paragraphs and no one would have understood or cared what I said. :lol:

[classhandicapper]

It is MUCH more common for a "sustained" early horse to still go to the front and fold like a cheap tent when the pace gets faster than it is for the same type horse to drop back in the field and make a late run.

Sure, it happens once in a while, but it isn't something a bettor wants to have his money on unless the odds are very generous.

:ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

The very nature of the definition of sustained (sustained velocity through three fractions) dictates that there would be FEW, if any sustained front running sprinters unless they were ON THE PACE at 23,46,1:09 and I doubt you find any sprint races with that crazy pace structure.

This distribution run in the majority of sprint races, would put this one described NO WHERE near the front by the nature of the way it ran to it's energy distribution.

[Tom]

So your point is that running style is not the same thing as energy distribution and since this thread started out about running style from the charts, you have only been hijacking yet another thread.

[46zilzal]

Conversations go where they go

[Tom]

Yeah, post #2!!:D

[BeatTheChalk]

I know, I never said it did. I know as much as anyone about Sartin stuff. The point is, the initial post was OBVIOUSLY talking position, and certainly never mentioned energy. You would know this if you actually bothered to read the post.

Do you always base a horse's "style" on one race? Because War Emblem certainly was not a sustained runner before the Illinois Derby, and never ran that way again after the Kentucky Derby. And trust me, I really, really like War Emblem.

And WE sends his regards :lol: .. Story is that he is doing better over in the Shed than he has been doing the last few years.. :eek: Get em Emlem