"Systems" For My New Book

[Molock]

Hey guys,

Well, I just got Barricade Books to go along with an idea I had for a gambling book called A Dealer's Guide To Systems, Methods and Strategies (although I'm sure we'll come up with something sexier before it comes out). But what I was hoping to cull from the brains on this board are quick and dirty Systems for horseracing; something that a casual player can grasp that works reasonably well. The thread on angles was pretty close, but some of it was still a bit esoteric for Joe Average. One that I read recently was betting first time starters going off as the favorite. Yes, low paying, but if it hits a high enough percentage, good for the recreational player. If you don't want to post here, feel free to email me for fear of being publicly branded a "system player" by the handicapping elite :-)

Thanks guys!

[Dave Schwartz]

"Dealer's Guide?"

What does that mean? Casino dealer?

Dave

[superfecta]

put this one under strategy.:rolleyes: Note the first 6 choices by odds.1st fav,2nd choice ,3rd choice,etc.Now take the second choice in the betting,over the 1st and third choice with 4th,5th,6th.with the 4th 5th 6th in a $1 super.
so it would be (#s are ranking in odds)

2/1,3/4,5,6/4,5,6 =$12
or if there is no super
2/1,3/all
in a tri for $1.

I call it a lotto play cause if you have no idea how the race will go but you gots to play the race,it gives you a simple way to structure a bet that could pay very well if it comes in.Must not have a odds on fav(less than even money),or a short field(7 horses or less).

[GARY Z]

while "firsters" heavily bet by the public may follow
stable and/or inside information you need to analyze
the connections such as trainer/owner,blood lines
and workouts.
certain large owners can disguise workouts for 2yr olds
by working the horse on their own facilites before actually
working the horse at the track.exercise riders can vary
in their personal weight and clockers don't always provide
accurate info.
i would also discount firsters running the first
time from the rail in short distance races(5fg,51/2,6fg)
which is generally a frightening experience for a 2yr
and presenting no value when they are odds on.
finally,often times you will see royally bred horses running
in fla and ny,purchased @7figures automatically bet down
as the favorite due to their value or because the top jockey
is on the horses..i will generally look past these horses
because the owners including the trainer really are unsure
of what they have today,but are looking to get the horse
in condition for the future

:cool: :)

[Tom]

Cool.

[Derek2U]

All You Weird posters with the @blah tags make sure you clean up
after yourselves. i.e. take your second-rate picks with you.
Go PA Go .... isn't that a catchy cheer?

[Molock]

D'yah,

I are a casino dealer (and a player long before that) who's always been fascinated by systems of all sorts. Yeah, yeah, I know that no system (for casino games anyway) will win in the long run, but playing a system is a lot more fun than merely trusting hunches. There wasn't really a book out there that was filled with systems, so I decided to pitch one. And the rest, as they, say, well you know. :-)

Shane

[Dave Schwartz]

Shane,

I didn't know that. Why don't you give me a call someday... I'll share a whole bunch of stories with you.

(I started in gaming at 15, dealing 21 in Miami.)

Where do you work now?

Dave

[LureHSH]

Dave,

I just wanted to test my new handle and make sure I could log in before the contest began. I also wanted to say that I remember your story about playing Blackjack. You shared some details with a small group of us at your first HNB seminar a ways back. When was that anyway, in the early 90s some time? Anyway, I enjoyed the story as I have successfully played Blackjack for years as it was my first investment interest before I took to the horses.

Lure

[Dave Schwartz]

The stories cam efrom the 70s, the seminar probably mid-90s.

Dave

[oldstuff]

Back in the 70's I was rated among the top 5 blackjack players in the world in a book by Ken Uston and the old Gambling Times.
In the 80's my ability was still very well above par among players but I was precluded from playing in most all casino's. Now, many of the formulas we used 'behind the count' are published in one form or another and virtually negates advantage.....for the casino's are also aware of the advantage.

This correlates well with the advance of knowledge by the public in horse handicapping......the proliferation of information virtually negates our former advantage. Now we are searching to once again gain the advantage. From what I have read on this board some of you and particularly one person has possibly, as Tom so eloquently put it "possibly cracked the racing code". I most certainly hope you have made this great stride. It gives the rest of us hope.

Joe Handicap still reads the form, uses the Beyer but also uses the DRF ratings and variance. Sartin came out with a very good 'quick and dirty system which could be of use in your book. He stated that a variance of 15, 16 and 17 requires no adjustment and the DRF rating stands as it is. Anything over 17 is to be added to the DRF. If the DRF is 88 and the variance is 21, add 4 points to the DRF for an adjusted 92. Likewise deduct for anything under 15. Using the same 88, with a variance of 10 is minus 5 points and that 88 DRF now becomes 83.
I used it and surprisingly it gives me a good idea of the 'true' DRF of the race.
I am a Joe Handicap and really don't consider myself as having but little expertise. However I can give a quick glance at the form, adjust my figures and have a sense of accomplishing something handicap-wise. Most Joe Handicappers I know just look for jockey and trainer angles and inside information of the jockey's personal chauffeur, the owners barber and grooms best friend.
I also use the old school adjustment of 1 point for each pound of weight (on or off).
I am really a 'speed merchant' for this is how I learned. However, I applied this variance to pace ratings and they seem to come into perspective. As pace ratings vary so very much, figure wise, this adjustment seems to stabilize them. As least it does for me. And they don't have to be applied just to the final figure.

I now know that when simple posts like this are available, I can participate.

Oldstuff
aka just plain Joe Handicapper from now on

[BarnieClockerbigal]

Nice and simple (like me) ;-)

1. First turf race a horse LOSES by less than 1.

2. next race on turf is 90 days or less.

Thats it still a positive ROI after all these years.

[BlueChip@DRF]

All apostrophe S at 15/1+ by post time. Can't get much more simpler than that.

[BMeadow]

"One that I read recently was betting first time starters going off as the favorite. Yes, low paying, but if it hits a high enough percentage, good for the recreational player..."

Sorry. Check of 5124 first-time starters who went off the favorite in Meadow's Racing Monthly showed these results:

MSW--33.7% wins, 0.81 ROI
MCLM--27.3% wins, 0.73 ROI

[Molock]

Oh sure, leave it to Barry to throw a wet blanket on my newfound system :-)

But thanks for the info, that was actually pretty enlightening. I figured the ROI would be small, but didn't realize the percentage was so low as well. You're just as well off betting any favorite (more or less)

Shane

[Jrdhorse]

It may have another name but this is a variation of my own making. I call it the Horse Points System. This is the legend so to speak of assigning the horses finishing positions points.

1st place-----4 points
2nd place-----3 points
3rd place------2points
4th place------1point
All other positions-----0 points
Ran a race within the last 20 days-------2points


Now you have the points. So now you take the racing form and look at your race your going to play and look at every horses last 6 races and add up the points by the position they finished. For example if the 1 horses last 6 races he finished 3rd 4th 1st 6th 7th 8th he would be assigned a total of 6 points. Do this for every horse in the race and come up with a total for each horse. The highest points horse would be your key horse and so on. Its a neat little system and can produce some nice longshots. Good for quick handicapping of a tough race. Cant use it on maidens or horses who havent ran enough races to give you 6 past performances. I like to use it on races that look wide open. Hope you can understand this.

[BIG HIT]

The horse must be running not more then 12 day's.And his finish position of his last two race's must not add up to over 4
Same or lower or small raise in class ok the whole thing is in sharp fourm trainer bringing him right back.
When i used it i used 14 day's 7 day's was optimun

[hurrikane]

how about this
make up a bs system
lie about the results
sell it for 29.99
retire on 'fools gold'

:D :D

[oldstuff]

That "bs system" for only $29.95 sounds like a bargain. Is the "Fools Gold" the upgrade. I think I've heard of it. Do they have a website?

[Molock]

Why the heck do you think I started this thread?

:)

[freeneasy]

years ago I bought this system below from a guy named Allen, somewhere near the east coast or maybe it was Oregon and I hit a $59 winner on the first play, and a few more winners after that. You wouldnt be him wouldja ?

1) The horse must be dropping in class today and gaind 4 1/2 lenghts in the stretch in the last race
2) Last race must have been within 30 days or so
or
1) the horse is dropping in class today and if
2) the horse did not gain 4 1/2 lths. in the str. in the last race but did so in the second race back and
3) the last race was within 30 days or so and
4) that second race back was within 45 days of todays race then
5) you have a play.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

If it was a winning system, its mine

if it is loser it ain't

I only sell winning systems ;-).