Negative Factors to Increase ROI

[Rick Ransom]

I'm happy with the positive factors I'm using and think that my next step should be to look at some good negative factors to downgrade a horse. They don't necessarily need to be low percentage factors, just something that has a horrible ROI. I've used average earnings this way before. Also, maybe breeding stats (now that they are widely available) might fall into this category. Jockey data might work, but you have to be careful here because some of it is mildly positive. Workouts maybe? What are your favorite negative factors and what is your opinion of this approach?

[andicap]

I've been thinking the same thing.
Check out. www.netcappers.com for some negative stats to help select contenders.

andicap

[hurrikane]

there are several things..probably some of them you use to eliminate a horse so seems a positives for the 'other' horse you like. On of my favorites is a horse that ran very well...won or close 2nd..layoff of 30+ days. Of course with a stakes or upper calibre horse this doesn't hold, but with standard claimers or maidens, races that run every day, there is no reason to hold back a horse that runs well unless he didn't come out of the race well.

Eliminate a lot of fav this way.

the next best thing..maybe the most obvious it runstyle. You would have to model your track to know that though

[Rick Ransom]

andicap,

Thanks for the info. I'll check it out.


hurrikane,

Yeah, I've always thought that they should run a horse back at one level higher than where most of the horses run according to their performance (finish position, etc.). It shows that they're optimistic, but not overconfident.

A winner coming back quickly at a higher level would make sense and a horse with a poor finish being laid off and coming back at a lower level would also make sense.

Class levels can be difficult to determine sometimes though, even in claiming races. You have to know the individual track quite well and also how it compares with other tracks. Purse levels are totally out of whack these days.

[Lefty]

First read about negative factors in Cramer's Form Cycles, I believe. Also Dave Shwartz did some work on neg. factors and roi in one of his "Player" issues.
I've nailed lottsa longshots with low percent trainers and jockeys.