I'm taking a Contrarian stand on the Haskell

[Bruddah]

and probably blowing $180 of my BoDog account ($1433 balance). All things are pointing to another blowout by Big Brown. That's precisely why I am going to make a "chaos" trifecta bet. If it hits, there can be no accusations of Red Boarding. If I miss, it will be just another of many misses and bad bets. I expect to be tortured by the handicapping intelligencia of this board, and deservedly so, if I'm wrong:rolleyes: :D

$1 trifecta part wheel:

win 1-2-3-5-6-7
plc 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
shw 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 = $180

Good Luck to all in the Haskell. No matter the outcome of the race, it will be another good day of Horse Racing.

[lamboguy]

that is not handicapping. you are paying 25% juice to make the trifecta bet. the ony way to overcome it is by eliminating more horses. or if you can't then you should take one horse and key him in 3 spots.

i personally don't play that way, but the more you eliminate the better shots you got. of course that is only if you are a decent handicapper in the long run.

[Bruddah]

that is not handicapping. you are paying 25% juice to make the trifecta bet. the ony way to overcome it is by eliminating more horses. or if you can't then you should take one horse and key him in 3 spots.

i personally don't play that way, but the more you eliminate the better shots you got. of course that is only if you are a decent handicapper in the long run.

quite well. My handicapping is taking a stand against BB to win. All the obvious points to him winning easily. I started to take this same approach in the Belmont and got cold feet. As usual, I will probably be a day late and a dollar short. Just having some fun with the race and my account can afford the hit. If by some chance I win, then I will really be having some fun and certainly won't be a Red Boarder.

Thanks for your opinion and reply :ThmbUp:

[cj's dad]

quite well. My handicapping is taking a stand against BB to win. All the obvious points to him winning easily. I started to take this same approach in the Belmont and got cold feet. As usual, I will probably be a day late and a dollar short. Just having some fun with the race and my account can afford the hit. If by some chance I win, then I will really be having some fun and certainly won't be a Red Boarder.

Thanks for your opinion and reply :ThmbUp:

Bruddah- just a thought - if you drop BB completely, your bet drops to $120 or a $60 savings. If BB runs 2nd or 3rd as in your original bet, I doubt that you would recoup your extra $60 that you would have bet as per your original plans? Hope I'm making sense.

[ezrabrooks]

Bruddah- just a thought - if you drop BB completely, your bet drops to $120 or a $60 savings. If BB runs 2nd or 3rd as in your original bet, I doubt that you would recoup your extra $60 that you would have bet as per your original plans? Hope I'm making sense.

Smart move...but, gosh it is one that is tough to pull the trigger on..

[Bruddah]

but, if BB runs 2nd or 3rd, which he should, then I will probably recoup most of my $180. If he doesn't hit the board, then my profit will only be $60 less. In this contrarian bet, I will lose the entire amount should BB win. I suppose you could consider it an all or nothing bet. Again, this is just a fun bet and my account won't be devastated.

Actually, this account is my "in action" account. I play a lot of these types of bets. My normanl play is $80. ($1 tri part wheel) I use 4 over 6 over 6 in 8 to 9 horse fields. I originally funded the account at $320 and have made two nice withdrawals. I am trying to 'beef' the account up going into the Breeders Cup. Again, I missed a great opportunity in the Belmont. I just couldn't see how BB could be beat. The same goes here but I am going to make the bet, this time. If I lose, it will be a classical case of a day late and a $1 short.

Anyway, if it hits, there won't be any Red Boarding. If it doesn't then, I will get a case of the Red *SS. ;) :D

[SMOO]

I wonder if the bridgejumpers will show up for this one.

[Cratos]

and probably blowing $180 of my BoDog account ($1433 balance). All things are pointing to another blowout by Big Brown. That's precisely why I am going to make a "chaos" trifecta bet. If it hits, there can be no accusations of Red Boarding. If I miss, it will be just another of many misses and bad bets. I expect to be tortured by the handicapping intelligencia of this board, and deservedly so, if I'm wrong:rolleyes: :D

$1 trifecta part wheel:

win 1-2-3-5-6-7
plc 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
shw 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 = $180

Good Luck to all in the Haskell. No matter the outcome of the race, it will be another good day of Horse Racing.

I understand what you doing and I always admire anyone who is willing to take exceptional risk, but in this case I believe you are up against it if you don’t think Big Brown will win the Haskell.

The reasons that I think Big Brown will win are twofold: (1) He is the best 3yo in training (unless Pyro prove me wrong) and (2) He is at his optimum running distance. He should win the Haskell by open lengths.

[applebee]

Heck for another 30 bucks you could box them all!

[cj's dad]

Think of it this way Bruddah; by including BB in your tri @ 2nd and 3rd, you are gambling that the tri will pay more than $60 for a $1 bet if he runs 2 or 3. I will venture that it will not. JMHO. I still think the $120 wager is the way to go although I'm not going there:lol:

I think I will spectate only.
BTW- I am not criticizing your proposed wager; only offering a different thought process.

[cj's dad]

Heck for another 30 bucks you could box them all!

That is not a good wager. IF BB wins, you would be lucky to get $35 for a buck. Only a 7 horse field, and I would guess that 80-90% of all tri tix will have BB in the 1 spot.

[Bruddah]

Again, I think, I am a race late making this bet and just couldn't pull the trigger in the Belmont. Why, I will never know? Just got cold feet, I suppose. I wished, I had been this nonchalant about it in the Belmont. I would be way ahead, if I had. I do remember being a little more concerned about being razzed about it. This time I decided what the heck let 'er fly. Well, if I am going to make the bet, I darn sure ain't going to be considered a Red Boarder, if it works out. Either way, it's not going to drain my account and I will still be plenty ahead.

Sometimes, we do crazy things and they hopefully work out. :D :ThmbUp:

[point given]

Sounds like you missed the funeral, but will be there for the wedding :rolleyes:

Why not play a nice p4 or two with the $$ ?? That will give you plenty of action and probably a better return on investment.


quite well. My handicapping is taking a stand against BB to win. All the obvious points to him winning easily. I started to take this same approach in the Belmont and got cold feet. As usual, I will probably be a day late and a dollar short. Just having some fun with the race and my account can afford the hit. If by some chance I win, then I will really be having some fun and certainly won't be a Red Boarder.

Thanks for your opinion and reply :ThmbUp:

[applebee]

That is not a good wager. IF BB wins, you would be lucky to get $35 for a buck. Only a 7 horse field, and I would guess that 80-90% of all tri tix will have BB in the 1 spot.

Sorry but I was only trying to show that 180.00 wager was not appropriate.

180.00- pray for BB to not win and pray for a big price.

210.00 pray for a big price.

I only watch these high profile races.

[ryesteve]

Given that it's only a 7 horse field, even if BB loses, I'm not seeing a good chance of a $360 tri, unless the result is really wack. So you're not just betting that BB will lose, you're also betting that the 2nd and 3rd choices won't win either, and that a boxcar horse will hit the board. But I'm not really hearing that this is what you're expecting. If your only opinion on the race is that BB is a good "bet against", I've got to believe your expectation would be a lot higher if you took the $180 and placed a lay bet at one of the exchanges.

[46zilzal]

In a pari-mutuel game that is the only stand to take.

[sammy the sage]

Dutrow had a similar experience in 2005 with the Kentucky Oaks starter Sis City, who ran a dull fourth as the favorite in the Oaks and had no apparent excuses. After the Oaks, she continued to train and act like a horse who was on top of her game, yet she lost her remaining five starts. Sis City has been in the back of Dutrow’s mind while preparing Big Brown for the Haskell.

“When we had Sis City and ran a sub-par race in the Oaks, she never ran another step again, even though she trained great,” Dutrow said. “I pointed her toward big races and she never showed up in any of them again. When something like that happens where horses just doesn’t run their race, and you don’t know why, then you’re concerned that it might happen again.” [NY Times]

[sammy the sage]

BY the way previous poster's are RIGHT by far...if you're gonna bet against...you'll get the most bang best pay for your buck BY...

betting p/3's or 4 or double....PERIOD....

the tri...every joe/judy/tom/dick & harry will tri-box w/BB thereby diluting pay-off's immensely...THEREFORE...

the only way you could possibly make out IS....

WELL if you ain't figured it out by now..... :faint:

[Robert Fischer]

logic says that if Big Brown's shoe isn't freakishly stepped on and bent down in a million to one repeat of the belmont, he should win this race without being asked.

It looks like a weaker version of the florida derby, without having to overcome the heroic post disadvantage.

The only thing you could say against brown is to wonder aloud if horses lose their confidence, or if running a half race on a bent-down shoe may have caused some injuries.

[SMOO]

BY the way previous poster's are RIGHT by far...if you're gonna bet against...you'll get the most bang best pay for your buck BY...

betting p/3's or 4 or double....PERIOD....



Yes, so many "key" tickets with BB would give you nice payoffs and BB can still run 2nd or 3rd. This is the best way.

[toetoe]

Like my father before me,

I'm a racin' man;

And like my Bruddah before me,

Took a contrary stand. (Okay, that's all. :) )

[Toss_DeLoser]

and probably blowing $180 of my BoDog account ($1433 balance). All things are pointing to another blowout by Big Brown. That's precisely why I am going to make a "chaos" trifecta bet. If it hits, there can be no accusations of Red Boarding. If I miss, it will be just another of many misses and bad bets. I expect to be tortured by the handicapping intelligencia of this board, and deservedly so, if I'm wrong:rolleyes: :D

$1 trifecta part wheel:

win 1-2-3-5-6-7
plc 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
shw 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 = $180

Good Luck to all in the Haskell. No matter the outcome of the race, it will be another good day of Horse Racing.



Bruddah's got the ol'shotgun back out of the closest. Bout time.:ThmbUp:

[sandpit]

Dutrow had a similar experience in 2005 with the Kentucky Oaks starter Sis City, who ran a dull fourth as the favorite in the Oaks and had no apparent excuses. After the Oaks, she continued to train and act like a horse who was on top of her game, yet she lost her remaining five starts. Sis City has been in the back of Dutrow’s mind while preparing Big Brown for the Haskell.

“When we had Sis City and ran a sub-par race in the Oaks, she never ran another step again, even though she trained great,” Dutrow said. “I pointed her toward big races and she never showed up in any of them again. When something like that happens where horses just doesn’t run their race, and you don’t know why, then you’re concerned that it might happen again.” [NY Times]

Sis City was a time bomb; there's a reason Asmussen put her in for a 50,000 tag as a 2-year-old.

[whipsaw]

this is off topic bruddah but, as i recommended bodog to you, i'm wondering how the withdrawals went. i haven't even sent in paperwork yet but i've heard some problems with bounced checks, etc.

thanks.

[Bruddah]

this is off topic bruddah but, as i recommended bodog to you, i'm wondering how the withdrawals went. i haven't even sent in paperwork yet but i've heard some problems with bounced checks, etc.

thanks.

They took a little longer than I expected, but both finally came and cleared. This is the first I've heard of this, but with your post, I'm starting to get a little nervous. I may request the balance, depending on any information you or others may have. At least I have my original money plus almost $700 juice. :eek:

[tribecaagent]

I understand what you doing and I always admire anyone who is willing to take exceptional risk, but in this case I believe you are up against it if you don’t think Big Brown will win the Haskell.

The reasons that I think Big Brown will win are twofold: (1) He is the best 3yo in training (unless Pyro prove me wrong) and (2) He is at his optimum running distance. He should win the Haskell by open lengths.

Cratos,

I always enjoy your input but I must disagree with you. Assuming Big Brown wins big on Sunday, Harlem Rocker is the second best three year old out there. I have a number of mathematical reasons to feel this way but for the sake of this post, I encourage you to take a look at his Withers & Prince of Wales.

[Bruddah]

Bruddah's got the ol'shotgun back out of the closest. Bout time.:ThmbUp:

I've been using the 'ole Shotgun since the early 90's and she returns a very nice profit every year. I always take her out during the Oaklawn meet and Triple Crown series. This is the first year, I have used her on line with any signifigance and I have made a little folding money. I'm probably p*ssing this $180 into the wind, but it's their cyber bucks until I turn it into real money. :ThmbUp:

[whyhorseofcourse]

FWIW if you deposit on bodog via moneygram you can get moneygram withdraws. Cash in hand in about 1 day! :ThmbUp:

[john del riccio]

Three points.

The HASKELL has rarely be won by a horse from well off the pace.

I am sick of the Dutrow/Ivarone nonsense.

This race has NO pace at all.

I'm taking a wack with COOL COAL MAN to win and betting exactas over ATONED and BIG MOUTH (I mean BIG BROWN).

Good Luck.

John

[Bruddah]

FWIW if you deposit on bodog via moneygram you can get moneygram withdraws. Cash in hand in about 1 day! :ThmbUp:

On line betting is really new to me. I had a Twin spires account but never used it much. I tried BoDog on a recommendation and have made several nice "Shotgun" hits over the past several months.

I was just trying to find an outlet for a little pent up action until the BC. I am happy to hear about the moneygram withdrawals. Thanks. :ThmbUp:

P.S. I should clarify my statement about my Twin spires Account. Actually, it was my brothers account. He lives in Arkansas. I live in Mississippi and we aren't allowed to bet on line in the U.S. We have about 30 Casinos which don't want us squandering or gambling dollars on NO STINK'N HOSSES. So they force my occasional betting off shore. What a bunch of Marooons! :D

[Bruddah]

I just wanted to clarify my position and bet.

Let me explain why I think this bet structure puts the odds of winning in my favor. Basically, I see the Haskell as a toss of the dice with the Historical statistical odds of winning in my favor. 1)Yes, BB will be the overwhelming favorite. As such, the statistical odds of over whelming favorites winning is under 40%. Result, my edge 60-40%. 2) the only way I lose my total bet is for BB to win. Result, still my edge 60-40%. 3) My odds of breaking even to winning 2x-3x-4x my investment is approximately 50-50%. Result, a toss of the dice. I can't find a Dice table anywhere which will give the same odds for the roll of the dice, or the odds on payoff.

You old time Gamblers and dice players will understand my $180 cyber money roll of the dice. :ThmbUp:

[Cratos]

Cratos,

I always enjoy your input but I must disagree with you. Assuming Big Brown wins big on Sunday, Harlem Rocker is the second best three year old out there. I have a number of mathematical reasons to feel this way but for the sake of this post, I encourage you to take a look at his Withers & Prince of Wales.

As requested by you I looked at Harlem Rocker’s last three races and in all due respect I wasn’t impressed. Taking it race by race from first to last my assessment would be as follows: at Aqueduct on April 26 he followed a solid win at Gulfstream with a “3yo to watch” win in the Withers. Next in the non-graded Plate Trial at Woodbine on June 1 he was less than stellar and was soundly beaten without even putting up a fight. However he would redeem himself with a solid but non spectacular win in the Prince of Wales on July 13 at Fort Erie while getting the last 3/16m in a pedestrian 18.92 seconds.

I don’t view the 2008 crop of 3yos as special and there might yet be a world-beater among them. However I don’t see Harlem Rocker at the level of Big Brown, Macho Again, or Pyro.

In the recent run Jim Dandy, both Macho Again and Pyro didn’t have the best of environmental conditions with a headwind coming home and a dew point of 70 °F (air heavier than normal), yet they ran about a second slower than the seasoned Commentator who won the Whitney a day earlier under much more favorable environmental conditions.

[tribecaagent]

As requested by you I looked at Harlem Rocker’s last three races and in all due respect I wasn’t impressed. Taking it race by race from first to last my assessment would be as follows: at Aqueduct on April 26 he followed a solid win at Gulfstream with a “3yo to watch” win in the Withers. Next in the non-graded Plate Trial at Woodbine on June 1 he was less than stellar and was soundly beaten without even putting up a fight. However he would redeem himself with a solid but non spectacular win in the Prince of Wales on July 13 at Fort Erie while getting the last 3/16m in a pedestrian 18.92 seconds.

I don’t view the 2008 crop of 3yos as special and there might yet be a world-beater among them. However I don’t see Harlem Rocker at the level of Big Brown, Macho Again, or Pyro.

In the recent run Jim Dandy, both Macho Again and Pyro didn’t have the best of environmental conditions with a headwind coming home and a dew point of 70 °F (air heavier than normal), yet they ran about a second slower than the seasoned Commentator who won the Whitney a day earlier under much more favorable environmental conditions.

Cratos,

What does that mean "3 yo to watch" in the Withers? He exploded past J Be K on a ractrack that was clearly favoring forward placed runners.

The Plate Trial was on a synthetic surface which he obviously didn't handle.

I'll give you the tardy time of The Prince of Wales. It wasn't lightening. However, he did show grit & determination running down East End Tap.

I think comparing these 3 year olds to older horses that ran the day before is a mistake. I think comparing ANY horse to other horses that ran on SUBSEQUENT days is a mistake. Each day is a different set of circumstances.

[ryesteve]

1)Yes, BB will be the overwhelming favorite. As such, the statistical odds of over whelming favorites winning is under 40%. Result, my edge 60-40%. 2) the only way I lose my total bet is for BB to win. Result, still my edge 60-40%. 3) My odds of breaking even to winning 2x-3x-4x my investment is approximately 50-50%. Result, a toss of the dice.What I don't see factored in here is the possibility of BB finishing 2nd and 3rd, which would end up costing you money as well. So given your position, it's more like you have a 40% chance of losing the whole thing, a 40% chance of losing a good portion of the $180, and a 20% chance of getting back anything between breakeven and double your money (in a 7 horse field, the chances of a 4 figure tri are negligible, so I wouldn't estimate anything more than doubling your money).

So yeah, BB might run out and you might win some money, but given these assumptions, the expectation on this bet is very negative, even with the generous assumption of there being a 20% chance that BB doesn't hit the board at all.

[Pace Cap'n]

From the article:

"The U.S. government recently seized $24 million from bank accounts linked to Bodog, the giant, illegal-under-U.S.-law Internet gaming operation founded by Canadian tycoon Calvin Ayre.

Federal filings make very clear that a serious criminal investigation of the Bodog enterprise is ongoing.

Court filings in Maryland say that in January and February a total of $14.2 million was seized from accounts in the name of JBL Services and Transaction Solutions at Wachovia, Regions Bank, Bank of America and Sun Trust Bank. In July, filings say, another $9.9 million was found in eight accounts at Nevada State Bank, a unit of Zion Bancorporation (nasdaq: ZION (http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=ZION) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=ZION) - people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=ZION)), in the name of Zaftig Instantly Processed Payments, doing business as ZipPayments.com. The companies are described as helping to facilitate parts of the Bodog operation.

The ongoing federal pressure to disrupt Bodog's financial transactions may be bearing fruit. Carrow's affidavits say several checks issued from Bodog to its undercover gambler bounced."

www.forbes.com/businessinthebeltway (http://www.forbes.com/businessinthebeltway/2008/07/30/calvin-ayre-bodog-biz-beltway-cx_jn_wb_0730ayre.html)

More at the link.

[Cratos]

Cratos,

What does that mean "3 yo to watch" in the Withers? He exploded past J Be K on a ractrack that was clearly favoring forward placed runners.

The Plate Trial was on a synthetic surface which he obviously didn't handle.

I'll give you the tardy time of The Prince of Wales. It wasn't lightening. However, he did show grit & determination running down East End Tap.

I think comparing these 3 year olds to older horses that ran the day before is a mistake. I think comparing ANY horse to other horses that ran on SUBSEQUENT days is a mistake. Each day is a different set of circumstances.

I believe Harlem Rocker broke his maiden in mid-February therefore he didn’t have a 2yo resume and his wins at Gulfsteam and Aqueduct made him from his victories a “3yo to watch” because those performances were before any of the TC races. I realize that he was put on the poly and that didn’t suit him and I will make an allowance for his poor showing in the Plate Trial.

However his performance in the Prince of Wales was dismal although he won handily.

Comparative analysis is what we do when we handicap. I wasn’t saying that Macho Again and Pyro were equal to their older counterparts, but illustrating with a barometer of how to measure their performances

[Bruddah]

What I don't see factored in here is the possibility of BB finishing 2nd and 3rd, which would end up costing you money as well. So given your position, it's more like you have a 40% chance of losing the whole thing, a 40% chance of losing a good portion of the $180, and a 20% chance of getting back anything between breakeven and double your money (in a 7 horse field, the chances of a 4 figure tri are negligible, so I wouldn't estimate anything more than doubling your money).

So yeah, BB might run out and you might win some money, but given these assumptions, the expectation on this bet is very negative, even with the generous assumption of there being a 20% chance that BB doesn't hit the board at all.

Steve, if you look at my ticket structure, I have BB covered in both the place and show. Those tickets, should he hit the board, would just about make my ticket whole, with maybe a small loss for the race. Either way BB is covered should he place or show. The only way I don't collect is if BB wins. So my ticket is built contrarian to him winning. He can run place, show or out of the money and I collect. It's a crap shoot with the odds skewed slightly in my fAVOR. A roll of the dice at better odds than you will get on the Craps table. Believe me, in my more fool hardy younger days, I had much larger rolls on the Craps table than $180.

According to Pace Capn's post, it sounds as if I need to try and turn those cyber dolars into real dollars and bail out. No matter the outcome in this situation, I have my seed money with some Vig. No handicapper likes the thought of not collecting his winnings but in this situation win, lose or draw, I am ahead and won't cry. :( ;)

[ryesteve]

Those tickets, should he hit the board, would just about make my ticket wholeI guess this is where we disagree. In a short field, and a huge favorite in the 2nd or 3rd slot, I don't see the tri coming back anywhere close to $360 for $2.
For example, over the past two days here are the 7 horse fields with a losing odds-on fav, and how much the tri returned for a dollar:

7/31 SRX9 $80 (fav 3rd)
7/31 ELP6 $129 (fav out)
7/30 SUF5 $57 (fav 3rd)
7/30 SRX4 $61 (fav 2nd)
7/30 PID2 $357 (fav out)
7/30 ELP8 $294 (fav out)
7/30 DMR7 $41 (fav 3rd)

So over the course of these two days, even if you were 100% accurate in identifying these 7 losing odds-on favorites, your shotgun still would've ended up shooting you in the foot. Add in the 100% losses from another 5-7 races where you would've been wrong, and the favorite won, the overall results would be disastrous.

[Bruddah]

Using your odds or mine, I like my chances (odds) and I am risking $180 cyber dollars, which I may or may not be able to turn into "real" dollars. I am whole plus a nice profit for the account. In my mind, I am risking Nothing. At this point, I might collect $0, even if I win the bet.

The mind set of the Handicapper when making betting decisions is very important. My mind set is " Let 'er Rip" and see what happens. I have Nothing to lose and maybe Nothing to gain. I restate, I wish my mind set had been this loose in the Belmont and not so tentative. I hope this explains my nonchalant actions.

At this point, with all of the things considered, it comes down to, Am I wrong or right, regarding this bet. I hope, I am right. If wrong, I will survive all the slings and arrows, which will surely come my way. Either way, we all will have had some fun and made our Handicapping thoughts known and considered. Heck, that's the fun of Handicapping with friends at the track. Maybe we have taken that shared experience a step further on the PA board. We will be taken that same fun to the cyber world. We all will be watching the race tomorrow and "EXTRA JUICES" will be flowing. Damn, don't you just love this Sport? :ThmbUp:

[sammy the sage]

""So over the course of these two days, even if you were 100% accurate in identifying these 7 losing odds-on favorites, your shotgun still would've ended up shooting you in the foot. Add in the 100% losses from another 5-7 races where you would've been wrong, and the favorite won, the overall results would be disastrous."'

Awesome discourse/fact finding there R.S...yet totally ignored..

You can't argue w/a brick wall...at least you tried :bang: :lol:

[Bruddah]

""So over the course of these two days, even if you were 100% accurate in identifying these 7 losing odds-on favorites, your shotgun still would've ended up shooting you in the foot. Add in the 100% losses from another 5-7 races where you would've been wrong, and the favorite won, the overall results would be disastrous."'

Awesome discourse/fact finding there R.S...yet totally ignored..

You can't argue w/a brick wall...at least you tried :bang: :lol:

Please read post #27 in this thread.
It's not a brag, but fact. There are several on this board which know I make nice profits at the Oaklawn meet every year and have been doing so for many years. If I were younger and needed the money, I would play this system at more than the Oaklawn meet, Triple Crown races and Breeder's Cup races. But like anything regarding playing the horses, it takes a lot of personal time, good record keeping and a data base of information. At my age and health, I don't want to put the time into doing more than the above and every year, I want to automate more and physically do less of the "drudgery work". Horse racing has alway been my hobby and not my life or ability to put food on my table or shelter over my head. Actually, I have preferred playing the stock market over the years. I don't expect you, nor care, if you think this works or not. Believe me, I am not trying to convert you or convince anyone. I am just having fun with something I like to do.

I hope you have a great and successful day tomorrow using whatever method you have chosen. As for me, I will, no matter the outcome of the race.

Best Regards and Best of Luck :ThmbUp:
Bruddah

[PaceAdvantage]

I wish Bruddah was this nice to me in his replies!! :lol:

Seriously though Bruddah, that was a classy repsonse...we need more of them...

[Imriledup]

Can someone tell me what the Monmouth races look like so far? I've just turned on the tv...is it a speed favoring track, or closers are winning, or a mixed bag.
Thanks.:)

[SeattleSlew@BP]

Somebody doesn't like money

What planet do you have to live on to think a trifecta involving Big Brown in 2nd or 3rd is going to break you even on that bet

[SeattleSlew@BP]

In this contrarian bet

This is ANYTHING but a contrarian bet. Most of the people who build a tri without him on top will use him in second or third because they can't stomach taking a real stand, that's why these kinds of favorites pay so much when they run out of the money. The worst spots you can put BB is in second or third from a value perspective.

Also we've seen BB run how many times? He's either rolled easily or finished up the track. Seems like he's an all or nothing bet to me. More reason not to put your money on him to finish exactly second or exactly third.