Any one know Big Browns morning line yet?

[kyle2227]

Or is it too soon to know what his morning line will be for this coming Sunday? I am hopeing to get at least 3/5 but I doubt that will happen.

[Irish Boy]

Monmouth's entries are only ready through tomorrow on equibase. I'm guessing tomorrow.

[sevenall]

Or is it too soon to know what his morning line will be for this coming Sunday? I am hopeing to get at least 3/5 but I doubt that will happen.

Why does it matter what his morning line is? He'll be the heavy favorite and at his eventual odds he won't be a good bet.

[Southieboy]

The Haskell draw at 11:30 a.m. on Thursday, will be webcast live on the Monmouth web site http://www.monmouthpark.com (http://www.monmouthpark.com/) and can be found in the "live video" section of the Racing menu.

[kyle2227]

Thanks for info guys

[njcurveball]

I am hopeing to get at least 3/5 but I doubt that will happen.

I doubt the ML odds maker there will make him less than 3-5 coming off a last place finish.

With a seven horse field expected and a few legitimate contenders (Cool Coal Man and Atoned), 3-5 or 4-5 would be my guess.

When you make a morning line, the general rule is that percentages add up to 120%.

Giiving one horse 50% (even money) only leaves 70% for the other 6 horses. If you decide to make another horse 3-1, that is another 25%. Then the 3rd choice at 4-1 would be 20% more (95%) leaving only 25% for the other 4 horses.

Unless he plans to "insult" a few and make them 20-1 or more, there just is not enough Math to make a horse really low. Let's say he decides on 1-2, that is 67%.

the 2nd choice at 4-1 (20%) and the 3rd choice at 5-1 (16.6%) basically leaves nothing for the other 4 horses in that scenario either.

Look for something like the following odds. The percentage is still a bit high, but my experience was to try not to "insult" owners entering horses in big stakes races.

1-1 (50%)
3-1 (25%)
5-1 (16.6%)
8-1 (11.1%)
10-1 (9.1%)
12-1 (7.7%)
15-1 (6.3%)

[johnav]

He is 1-2

[njcurveball]

I saw the 1-2 and I guess they do not need to make it "work" under normal guidelines.

10-1 (9.1)
4-1 (20)
30-1 (ouch!) (3.3)
1-2 (66.7)
15-1 (6.3)
8-1 (11.1)
6-1 (14.3)

Adds up to over 126% for a 7 horse field. No wonder morning lines are viewed as less accurate these days.

Add in the fact that he was last in the Belmont and even with the 26% cushion he may wind up going off above his morning line odds here.

[Tom Barrister]

Static odds usually will add up to more than 1/(1-takeout), due to truncating. In other words, a horse could show as 2-1 on the board and might actually be 2.49-1 if pennies were listed. That's a difference of about 4.8%. The oddsmakers don't generally follow a strict "fit it to 120% (or whatever number would be correct)" template when setting their odds. I've seen the morning-line probabilities add up to as high as about 150% and as low as about 85% (without scratches). It makes you wonder who they have making the morning line.

[njcurveball]

The oddsmakers don't generally follow a strict "fit it to 120% (or whatever number would be correct)" template when setting their odds. I've seen the morning-line probabilities add up to as high as about 150% and as low as about 85% (without scratches). It makes you wonder who they have making the morning line.

The good ones actually do make sure they come pretty close to 120%. Many also have templates and they know when to add or drop a point in odds to even things out.

They also know that odds can fluctuate as you say, but from reading this board I am totally shocked on how much emphasis profitable handicappers (over 60% here make money if you believe the polls) rely on the morning line to make decisions for them.

There has to be some standard, which is why programmers spend so much time making track to track, surface, distance adjustments, etc. If the morning line is not done in a standard way, there is no way to compare it to the tote. It would be like some of the "bayesian" lines that were posted here earlier this year. Since they didn't add up, another term was needed "non linear". :bang:

I can assure you that when I did the line, I made sure almost every race came within 3 points of 120%. It is just a math exercise, but a needed one for the people who trust your accuracy. There is enough inaccuracy tossed in by scratches to make this data unusable. I will do some research now and look at it by track to see if I can find frequent offenders.

Making Big Brown 1-2 is a leap of faith and he may be first horse in a Grade 1 race ever to finish last in his previous race and be made less than even money in the morning line.

No big deal, since the money will always tell the story, but it is an interesting topic to discuss. I doubt any of the 60%+ profitable bettors here will put a dime on him to win anyway at those odds.

[njcurveball]

might actually be 2.49-1 if pennies were listed. .

One question for you, where do you bet and get paid with penny breakage?

[1st time lasix]

with drugs....2/5 without Dutrow's magic....8/1 :lol:

[Irish Boy]

I'd run through hell and back to place a bet on BB against this field at 8-1, drugs or no drugs. Hell, 3-1 for that matter.

[The Hawk]

All this being said, 1/2 is the right line. In fact, it might be a tick generous. I would have made him 2/5, but when you're making the line at the track you're under a little pressure not to embarrass those owners who may have been urged into the race to fill it, and make their horses too high.

[tribecaagent]

I'd run through hell and back to place a bet on BB against this field at 8-1, drugs or no drugs. Hell, 3-1 for that matter.

Boy, you're right. He should beat this field on three legs.

[PaceAdvantage]

Boy, you're right. He should beat this field on three legs.I believe that was the thought before the Belmont as well, especially after Casino Drive scratched out...

[tribecaagent]

I believe that was the thought before the Belmont as well, especially after Casino Drive scratched out...

I don't know about that, Pace. Maybe in your man Dutrow's eyes. In my eyes, this is much different. Atoned, Cool Coal Man, & Coal Play are a little less than Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, & Macho Again (not including the winner Da'Tara). This race is tailor made for him. Go to the lead and say goodbye.

[Robert Fischer]

coal play will set the pace here

[tribecaagent]

coal play will set the pace here

Maybe you're right. I'd be suprised if Desormeaux is not aggresive in this spot. Can any horse come from the clouds and run em' all down?

[Robert Fischer]

Maybe you're right. I'd be suprised if Desormeaux is not aggresive in this spot. Can any horse come from the clouds and run em' all down?

well it looks like at some point Brown will as you said; "go to the lead and say good bye".

Maybe just before the top of the stretch?

[tribecaagent]

well it looks like at some point Brown will as you said; "go to the lead and say good bye".

Maybe just before the top of the stretch?

Robert,

The longer I think about it, the longer I feel this horse will explode on Sunday. He might run his best race race (Beyer, Thorograph, Ragozin, etc.). Let's face it, he's more mature than he was in May, he's had some r & r, and he'll be forwardly placed (always a plus at Monmouth).

I could see it now though. Big Brown gets beat and Dutrow pins it all on Kent.

Isn't it the least bit curious that Big Brown put in his last work on the turf? Dutrow said he wanted to protect his feet. Protect his feet from what, Rick? Himself?

[Robert Fischer]

they got him real sharp for this one.

wouldn't worry about the turf work.

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe in your man Dutrow's eyes.You guys read way too much into my comments. Dutrow is not, and has never been "my man."

[PaceAdvantage]

Isn't it the least bit curious that Big Brown put in his last work on the turf? Dutrow said he wanted to protect his feet. Protect his feet from what, Rick? Himself?Yeah, just when you think you've got it figured out, they throw another monkey wrench into the works...

BTW, with the lack of rain recently, combined with the baking sun of the last few days around here, that AQU turf course had to be pretty hard.....

[Tom]

I don't know about that, Pace. Maybe in your man Dutrow's eyes. In my eyes, this is much different. Atoned, Cool Coal Man, & Coal Play are a little less than Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, & Macho Again (not including the winner Da'Tara). This race is tailor made for him. Go to the lead and say goodbye.

Well, in the Belmont, he certainly did say Good bye to the field! :lol:

[sally]

Isn't it the least bit curious that Big Brown put in his last work on the turf? Dutrow said he wanted to protect his feet. Protect his feet from what, Rick? Himself?


I think Dutrow is setting up a bet-- wants to put a little doubt in people's minds as he lays down his 10,000 dollar bet....:rolleyes:

[tribecaagent]

You guys read way too much into my comments. Dutrow is not, and has never been "my man."

Fair enough. You gotta admit though, you've spent a lot of time defending him.

[onefast99]

I think Dutrow is setting up a bet-- wants to put a little doubt in people's minds as he lays down his 10,000 dollar bet....:rolleyes:
He wont be laying it down at 1-5 on this horse, with his book or at the track!

[cj's dad]

Boy, you're right. He should beat this field on three legs.

If one of his shoes is bent again, he may have to.

[broadreach]

Currently 2/5 available on betting exchanges.