Calks at Saratoga

[misscashalot]

So far at Saratoga

There were 75 runners with calks

14 Races were won by a calker in 39 races where calks were worn

Return for a $2 win bet on every calker $274.70

Roi +.83 :jump:

[tribecaagent]

I'm an advocate of mud calks as well. Have you kept a record of 1st TIME caulks? In my experience, this along with the 1/4 inch bends are the optimum time for this angle.

[slewis]

I've heard from good sources that the NYRA announcements on shoe information are correct only 70% of the time and that when a trainer who uses calks often, the NYRA people will automatically assume the horse has them that day, and they are called without actually checking.

I dont believe any of the ridiculous stats posted above. They, like many other seemingly valid stats in this game, are skewerd by inaccuracy and other factors.

Trainers like Allen Jerkins, who used to use them on almost every horse, almost never uses them and even Contessa who's had so much success with them has not used them (from very reliable sources) as often as they are "announced" at Saratoga.

Forget the shoe shit, concentrate on handicapping.
If you dont believe me ask Bill Mott or Scott Lake.

[Fingal]

If you're betting California, what are Mud Calks ?

I miss dirt..............:(

[Tom]

Intersting.
So NYRA, pretending to be the premier circuit, allows lying to thier customers as SOP? I know that they did that repeatedly in the old turn down shoe days - favored trainers were breaking the rules and getting away with it. That is really when I stopped playing NYRA seriously. NYRA is a minor league cheaters' track to me. I don't support cheaters, NYRA does. A few good races a year don't erase basic corruption day in day out.

I do not even know the head guy is anymore, but he should have his ass parked in the paddock for every race and report - personally - every horse's equipment until he can hire someone to do it. This isn't like broken air conditioning - this is lying to paying customers. I suspect the congressional committee for racing might appreciate a bunch of formal complaints......

[Grits]

Some days, I howl with laughter over Slewis' delivery!!

Don't think it long before he says it . . . . shoe sh!t and all.

LOLOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL:lol:

[misscashalot]

I've heard from good sources that the NYRA announcements on shoe information are correct only 70% of the time

it really doesnt make a dif anyway, does it? all u would have to have done is act on the stated pre-race info and ... +.83 roi.

let's see what this coming weeks numbers are...be back next monday nite.

[slewis]

Intersting.
So NYRA, pretending to be the premier circuit, allows lying to thier customers as SOP? I know that they did that repeatedly in the old turn down shoe days - favored trainers were breaking the rules and getting away with it. That is really when I stopped playing NYRA seriously. NYRA is a minor league cheaters' track to me. I don't support cheaters, NYRA does. A few good races a year don't erase basic corruption day in day out.

I do not even know the head guy is anymore, but he should have his ass parked in the paddock for every race and report - personally - every horse's equipment until he can hire someone to do it. This isn't like broken air conditioning - this is lying to paying customers. I suspect the congressional committee for racing might appreciate a bunch of formal complaints......

Tom,

I never said NYRA was lying (regarding shoes). If it was interpreted that way, I apologize to whoever it concerns.
My contention was accuracy. I think the accuracy % is questionable at most tracks regarding many things. It proves more and more that if you want things done right you need to do them yourself.
How many times have you read a chart caller describe a horse as "flattened out" and you watch the replay and the horse is zig-zagging through competition and flying late. Of course the chart caller will say, if questioned, that's his opinion.
Just wanted to be clarify.

[slewis]

Some days, I howl with laughter over Slewis' delivery!!

Don't think it long before he says it . . . . shoe sh!t and all.

LOLOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL:lol:


Ok,

How's f...in' shoe shit sound??? Better?

[Tom]

Tom,

I never said NYRA was lying (regarding shoes). If it was interpreted that way, I apologize to whoever it concerns.
My contention was accuracy. I think the accuracy % is questionable at most tracks regarding many things. It proves more and more that if you want things done right you need to do them yourself.
How many times have you read a chart caller describe a horse as "flattened out" and you watch the replay and the horse is zig-zagging through competition and flying late. Of course the chart caller will say, if questioned, that's his opinion.
Just wanted to be clarify.

slewis...
I didn't mean that you said lie - that is my take on it.
NYRA can't be World-Class and Slather -assed at the same time.

If you are aware of it, there is no excuse of them not knowing, and not fixing it is inexcusable. That is slather-assed. :3x: and yer out!

[xtb]

A few years ago using result charts for Aqueduct, I found that betting every horse with mud caulks in every race could have been very profitable for long stretches. It's not something that will hold up over the long haul, but nevertheless accurate shoe information is valuable. The problem is, as was said, the pre-race info when it's available at all, isn't very accurate so it wasn't worth pursuing. As I remember using win bets only, the entire period that I looked at from Dec through Jan was profitable with win bets on every horse with caulks. Here is a 4 day sample that I dug up.

aqu



Jan 2 Invest=26.00 Return=93.50

Good 1 1/16 2

6f 0

1 70 1 23.60

5.5f 2 8.30

6f 3 30.80 (2106.00 Pick 3)

6f 2 4.40 (also 12.20 place for 51.50 exacta)

1 1/16 0

6f 0

6f 3 17.40



Jan 1 Invest=52.00 Return=85.60

Muddy 6f 1

1 70 3 3.80

6f 2 11.80

5.5f 4

1 70 3

6f 4

6f 3 59.50 (also 4.80 place for 359.00 exacta)

6f 3 10.50 (also 6.50 place for 116.00 exacta)

1 1/16 3



Dec 31 Invest=28.00 Return=100.60

Fast 1 70 4 45.40

6f 1

1 1/8 2 16.80 (2.50 place for 31.80 exacta)

6f 1

6f 0

1 1/16 0

1 1/16 3 38.40

1 5/8 3

6f 3



Dec 30 Invest=42.00 Return=78.70

Good 6f 3

Fast 6f 4

1 70 4 11.00 (6.90 place for 72.00 exacta)

1 1/16 2

1 70 1

1 1/8 1 49.80

1 1/16 3

1 1/16 1 12.00

6f 2 5.90

That formatting is ugly, sorry. The first column is the distance and the second is the number of horses in the race with caulks.

Maybe Ernie D. will have something to say in this thread.

[Grits]

Ok,

How's f...in' shoe shit sound??? Better?

Nah, jus' more slather @ssed! And makes me laugh even harder.:lol:

I leave y'all alone to read all this past data! (And do with it what you will.)

[misscashalot]

A few years ago using result charts for Aqueduct, I found that betting every horse with mud caulks in every race could have been very profitable for long stretches. It's not something that will hold up over the long haul, but nevertheless accurate shoe information is valuable. The problem is, as was said, the pre-race info when it's available at all, isn't very accurate so it wasn't worth pursuing. As I remember using win bets only, the entire period that I looked at from Dec through Jan was profitable with win bets on every horse with caulks. Here is a 4 day sample that I dug up.


Yes your figures are correct
That was 2006
on the Aqu Inner

From Jan 1 thru Feb 25 of that year
there were 625 calk wearers
who returned $1704 for a $2 bet on every wearer
roi +.36 :jump:

And I find that the calk info posted prior to race time was at that time and still is extremely accurate when compared to the Equibase charts which my figures are based upon.

[tribecaagent]

Misscashalot,

Can we have the updated figures on the mudcaulks? Very curious.

Many thanks.

[misscashalot]

Misscashalot,

Can we have the updated figures on the mudcaulks? Very curious.

Many thanks.


Since the last post and beginning with July 31
there have been 84 calkers
running in 51 races
where calkers won 12 races
and returned $106 for a $2 win bet on every calker
for a loss of $78

- - - - - - - - -

For this entire meet

169 calk wearers
in 90 races
calkers won 26 races
$2 win bet on every calker
returned $380
for a $42 profit
roi +.11

[tribecaagent]

Thanks Misscash.


26 wins in 90 races. That's a shade under 30%. Not bad.
Good stuff.

[ryesteve]

Since the last post and beginning with July 31
there have been 84 calkers
running in 51 races
where calkers won 12 races
and returned $106 for a $2 win bet on every calker
for a loss of $78

-$62

But still a major "ouch"

[46zilzal]

what amazes me about MOST tracks is how hard it is find out shoe information.At Hasting's it is right on the tote board every race.