Pick 3 Strategy and a Story -- Novice

[PennNational11]

Everyone --

Hey there. I have been lurking around here for a little bit and finally decided to post!

First......a little bit about myself. I am still a relative novice to horse racing, though I have spent the better part of this summer studying the sport. I ended up at Charles Town sort of by accident this past spring and really liked it. My wife and I moved to the Harrisburg area because of job/grad school opportunities and with Penn National nearby, I decided to devote the summer to figuring out the basics of horse racing and handicapping. I am happy to report that I enjoy this a lot -- every race is like a new puzzle to solve. Adding in the prospect of making money and I feel like I have found a terrific hobby!

So my question and then my story........does anybody know of any particular books that have greater discussion of Pick 3 strategy/advice? I just finished Steve Crist's "Exotic Betting" -- I thought it was a great book. I have about a month before grad school starts, which is just enough time for another book or two.

I ask about Pick 3's because that's what I have found myself focusing on lately. I like picking winners, but I am just not that good at exactas/trifectas so far.....but I have found more successful with picking consecutive winners of racers.

OKAY, before I go, I have a painful Pick 3 story that I thought some folks on this board might appreciate! I went to Penn National on Saturday night -- they do the rolling Pick 3. The 5th race was not a very good Pick 3 race so I decided beforehand I would avoid any of the Pick 3 races involving the 5th. The 6-7-8/7-8-9 pick 3's were very interesting. I felt pretty good about the 7th/8th/9th races, but not so much about the 6th. I had a hunch about the 6th race, but it was honestly a wide open race.

I decided to play the Pick 3 in both races in the following way:

6th Race: ABC
7th Race: ABC
8th Race: AB
9th Race: ABC

6-7-8 Pick 3: A ABC AB
ABC A AB
ABC ABC A

7-8-9 Pick 3: A AB ABC
ABC A ABC
ABC AB A

6th Race -- Turns out perfectly. The horse I had a hunch about finishes in first. He was clearly not the favorite at the start -- nice way to start the Pick 3, I am alive on all my tickets.

7th Race -- My B horse ends up winning. I am not that disappointed because the A horse was a heavy favorite. I actually thought he was being way overbet and wished my post time that he was my B horse.....but hey I am still alive.

8th Race -- When I placed the initial bet, I felt very good about the 8th race. It was a short field. 2 Horses were far and away better than the rest. Two were complete duds. One was coming from the top trainer, but was otherwise a dud. There was one small wildcard -- a horse that had not shown much at this level, was being trained by a jockey that had not won this year, and a trainer that was also winless. I ALMOST added this horse as my C horse, but thought my money was better spent shoring up the 6th and 7th races.

Of course, you can imagine what happened. One of the two best horses ran a terrible race. The other one finished a close second. The other horses all finished where I thought they would....and the wild card pulled it out. There goes both pick 3's!

9th Race -- Turned out exactly as I predicted. The horses I had on my ticket all came in 1-2-3.

The payoffs on these pick 3's were not bad at all -- the 6-7-8 paid like $980 and the 7-8-9 paid out $480. I know that's not tons of money, but, as a novice, I would have been very happy -- especially since I would have won BOTH if that 8 race would have turned out differently. In hindsight, I should have just bought the extra coverage......but I just didn't think it was needed at the time.

The 1-2-3 and 2-3-4 turned out likewise. I had the 1 and 3 combos right -- a longshot won the 2nd though. I didn't kick myself as much over this race -- I never seriously considered the horse that ended up winning that race, as opposed to the 8th race where I did consider adding the winner.

So, overall, I had winning combos in the 1st, 3rd, 6th, 7th, and 9th races -- which, I suppose for being a novice, should at least be an indication I was on the right track.....still, I wanted to hit one of those badly!

Okay, this message is long enough. Sorry for blabbing on and on! Again, if any of you have advice about Pick 3's, books, tips, etc. I am very interested. I am also just interested in talking with other horse handicappers.

Thanks again.
B

[point given]

welcome to club horizontal. one thing i'm learning is that when you get an inkling about a horse, put him in the bet. when you think you have it covered is when you're not. I hit a nice p3 last week that i went back and included a horse i left out figuring I missed the wedding and didnot want to go to the funeral. Well, I made a $35 play, then made a $2 ticket and guess what ticket won ? I still play caveman tickets though instead of ABC tickets. Enjoy your summer project.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

Welcome Penn,

I have had a lot of success with my formula, here it is

A= Top Selection
B= 2nd Selection
C= 3rd Selection

$1.00 Pick 3 Total Cost $35.00

Bet 1 A/ABC/ABC

Bet 2 ABC/A/ABC

Bet 3 ABC/ABC/A

Bet 4 BC/BC/BC

My first week at the Spa was great

Opening Day Wed 7/23/08 7 pick 3 's loss them all down $245.00

Thur 7/24/08 7 Pick 3's Hit race's 3,4 5 $1420.25

Fri 7/25/08 6 Pick3's loss them all minus $210.00 for the day

Sat 7/26/08 8 Pick 3's Hit race 4 $4773 had for $1.00 ($2386.50)

Sun 7/27/08 8 Pick 3's Hit race 6 ($186) and race 7 ($1268)


Jimmy

[rrbauer]

Don't get caught up in how you do today. Today is just another day.

DO NOT EVER, EVER, EVER PUT MONEY ON A P3 SEQUENCE THAT INVOLVES ALL THREE FAVORITES (POST TIME FAV IN LEG 1, M/L FAV IN LEGS 2 AND 3). WORST VALUE BET ON THE PLANET!

When you think that you have an edge, up the ante. $2 or $3 tix instead of $1 tix.

Keep records. Know yourself. Adjust accordingly.

[PennNational11]

Thanks a lot for the advice -- and congrats on your winnings so far! That's pretty nice $$$$$$.

Question -- how important do you think the BC combination is? My own guess is that, long-term, it's probably an excellent Pick 3 bet because the BC typically will not be favorites and thus if this ticket hits, you can have a huge payday. Is that right? Also, do you typically play 3 horses -- no matter what? I am starting to think that I have to just play 3 horses -- that was ultimately my downfall last time. Your thoughts?

Thanks in advance and best of luck to you, I appreciate the reply.

[PennNational11]

Rick -- thanks for your advice too, I appreciate it.

[bigmack]

Keep records. Know yourself. Adjust accordingly.
Put those three on every piece of paper you write on. Good stuff, R.

PEN is a tough place to incorporate traditional practices. Best to know the train/jock world and expect little in the way of equine form. Form there is willy-nilly at best.

[PennNational11]

bigmack -- thanks.

I have spent a lot of time studying the trainer/jockey stats. That's a big part of the reason why I did NOT include that horse that messed up my pick 3 in the 8th race that day. The jockeys/trainer combo in that race was terrible -- no wins between the two of them. That's why I thought it was such a long shot that they would somehow both finally win that night, that race. But it happened.

[JustRalph]

you forgot one

"take some out for the wife/Girlfriend"

[Irish Boy]

I've always felt that it's not worthwhile to play the pick three unless you think you can nail at least one leg cold, and that one leg isn't an obvious favorite. Otherwise you're left hoping for chaos, and I've had too many experiences hitting the pick three and losing money. But I'll admit I'm not the best horizontal player in the world.

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

I'll quote Steven Davidowitz in the following methodology.


First of all-- don't ever play an exotic without a value or price horse.



Here is a $19 system for a pick 3 in three races.



RACE 1 RACE 2 RACE 3

$4.00 A A SINGLE

$3.00 A B SINGLE

$3.00 B A SINGLE

$2.00 B B SINGLE

$2.00 A C SINGLE

$2.00 C A SINGLE

$1.00 B C SINGLE

$1.00 C B SINGLE

$1.00 C C SINGLE


This method works super well especially if you have a value or price horse amoung the A or B choices and/or as the single.

You can also vary this method and use more than one horse for the A, B, and or C choices.

You can also use this for the daily double bets-- just drop the single in the third leg and use the first two parts of this method.


Good luck playing the horses

p. s. sometimes I have to bet $2 pick 3 tickets. I just add another A choice to my $1.00 part of this method. Or I just add another longshot to the method.

[joelouis]

Everyone --

Hey there. I have been lurking around here for a little bit and finally decided to post!

First......a little bit about myself. I am still a relative novice to horse racing, though I have spent the better part of this summer studying the sport. I ended up at Charles Town sort of by accident this past spring and really liked it. My wife and I moved to the Harrisburg area because of job/grad school opportunities and with Penn National nearby, I decided to devote the summer to figuring out the basics of horse racing and handicapping. I am happy to report that I enjoy this a lot -- every race is like a new puzzle to solve. Adding in the prospect of making money and I feel like I have found a terrific hobby!

So my question and then my story........does anybody know of any particular books that have greater discussion of Pick 3 strategy/advice? I just finished Steve Crist's "Exotic Betting" -- I thought it was a great book. I have about a month before grad school starts, which is just enough time for another book or two.

I ask about Pick 3's because that's what I have found myself focusing on lately. I like picking winners, but I am just not that good at exactas/trifectas so far.....but I have found more successful with picking consecutive winners of racers.

OKAY, before I go, I have a painful Pick 3 story that I thought some folks on this board might appreciate! I went to Penn National on Saturday night -- they do the rolling Pick 3. The 5th race was not a very good Pick 3 race so I decided beforehand I would avoid any of the Pick 3 races involving the 5th. The 6-7-8/7-8-9 pick 3's were very interesting. I felt pretty good about the 7th/8th/9th races, but not so much about the 6th. I had a hunch about the 6th race, but it was honestly a wide open race.

I decided to play the Pick 3 in both races in the following way:

6th Race: ABC
7th Race: ABC
8th Race: AB
9th Race: ABC

6-7-8 Pick 3: A ABC AB
ABC A AB
ABC ABC A

7-8-9 Pick 3: A AB ABC
ABC A ABC
ABC AB A

6th Race -- Turns out perfectly. The horse I had a hunch about finishes in first. He was clearly not the favorite at the start -- nice way to start the Pick 3, I am alive on all my tickets.

7th Race -- My B horse ends up winning. I am not that disappointed because the A horse was a heavy favorite. I actually thought he was being way overbet and wished my post time that he was my B horse.....but hey I am still alive.

8th Race -- When I placed the initial bet, I felt very good about the 8th race. It was a short field. 2 Horses were far and away better than the rest. Two were complete duds. One was coming from the top trainer, but was otherwise a dud. There was one small wildcard -- a horse that had not shown much at this level, was being trained by a jockey that had not won this year, and a trainer that was also winless. I ALMOST added this horse as my C horse, but thought my money was better spent shoring up the 6th and 7th races.

Of course, you can imagine what happened. One of the two best horses ran a terrible race. The other one finished a close second. The other horses all finished where I thought they would....and the wild card pulled it out. There goes both pick 3's!

9th Race -- Turned out exactly as I predicted. The horses I had on my ticket all came in 1-2-3.

The payoffs on these pick 3's were not bad at all -- the 6-7-8 paid like $980 and the 7-8-9 paid out $480. I know that's not tons of money, but, as a novice, I would have been very happy -- especially since I would have won BOTH if that 8 race would have turned out differently. In hindsight, I should have just bought the extra coverage......but I just didn't think it was needed at the time.

The 1-2-3 and 2-3-4 turned out likewise. I had the 1 and 3 combos right -- a longshot won the 2nd though. I didn't kick myself as much over this race -- I never seriously considered the horse that ended up winning that race, as opposed to the 8th race where I did consider adding the winner.

So, overall, I had winning combos in the 1st, 3rd, 6th, 7th, and 9th races -- which, I suppose for being a novice, should at least be an indication I was on the right track.....still, I wanted to hit one of those badly!

Okay, this message is long enough. Sorry for blabbing on and on! Again, if any of you have advice about Pick 3's, books, tips, etc. I am very interested. I am also just interested in talking with other horse handicappers.

Thanks again.
B

Most of the seasoned veterans on here I am sure have many many Painfull Storys to tell but it hurts to stir up the old memories.

[point given]

Usually getting a llongshot in the first leg will pay better than in other legs. a guy i met made a LS single then 3 x 3. most bettors want to be live and go deeper in the 1st leg. i havenot bet this way, but its works for him. just $9 per p3 x 7 bets .

[njcurveball]

especially since I would have won BOTH if that 8 race would have turned out differently. In hindsight, I should have just bought the extra coverage......but I just didn't think it was needed at the time.



If you are new to the game, your "extra coverage" will start costing a whole lot more if you expect a decent winning percentage with horizontal wagers like the pick 3.

I know this advice is contrary to the thread, but I would suggest betting win and place on your choices until you can show a profit with straight betting. I know the highs (and lows) are so much flatter doing it this way, but you will stay out of the crowd of people lamenting if they just bet more and covered more horses they would have won.

Hindsight is always 20/20 and much cheaper than reality. Some on your path move on to playing one ALL race and others even go so far as to start playing their choice ALL/ALL.

I cannot tell you how many times I have heard the story of the $20 horse and IF they had played the right horse in between a few $1,000+ pick3s would have been cashed.

Even the most experienced players have a hard time showing a profit with these horizontal wagers. The main reason is that usually there are 3 different types of fields involved. Turf. claimers. maidens, stakes, etc.

It is better to see which races you excel at, bet them and pass the others. I have yet to find someone who has shown a profit betting every race.

Jim

[PennNational11]

Thanks for the advice.

I certainly understand the challenge involved in doing the Pick 3's, especially for a novice. But, yes, I will admit, just betting the win/place is not nearly as exciting -- and, quite frankly, for the amount of time I am putting into handicapping these races, it just doesn't seem worth it. I went to Penn three nights earlier in the summer and just bet wins -- I came home with a small profit every time, but when I figured in the amount of time I spent handicapping, the time at the track, etc., it just seemed like A LOT of work for very, very small payoffs. Of course, it's not all about the payoff....but still, that's certainly an element of it.

I like the Pick 3 precisely because it's tough to do and usually has a nice payoff, it done correctly. I have also tried to be careful with the bets I have placed with it -- I don't bet it when it involves races where I just simply can not handicap the race.

[nobeyerspls]

For a novice, you've found a great way to leverage your capital. First you have to get past the gut wrenching feeling when the horse in the third part of a five race sequences runs second and all the other legs win. Four winners and no tickets to cash. Makes sense to place some straight bets too and rolling doubles are good if the track offers those.
My strongest advice is to target returns in the range of 20 to 40 times your bet. If your ticket is 3x3x3, the $27 outlay requires the possibility of a $540 to $1,080 return. If that is unlikey, then pass. I hit the first five races at Woodbine recently and the most a spent on a pick3 ticket was $8 (2x2x2). The two others were $4 tickets. The three pick3's paid $202, $81, and $71. The last one was below the target but not by much.
The guy who advised not to use three favorites in a row gave solid advice.

[PennNational11]

For a novice, you've found a great way to leverage your capital. First you have to get past the gut wrenching feeling when the horse in the third part of a five race sequences runs second and all the other legs win. Four winners and no tickets to cash. Makes sense to place some straight bets too and rolling doubles are good if the track offers those.
My strongest advice is to target returns in the range of 20 to 40 times your bet. If your ticket is 3x3x3, the $27 outlay requires the possibility of a $540 to $1,080 return. If that is unlikey, then pass. I hit the first five races at Woodbine recently and the most a spent on a pick3 ticket was $8 (2x2x2). The two others were $4 tickets. The three pick3's paid $202, $81, and $71. The last one was below the target but not by much.
The guy who advised not to use three favorites in a row gave solid advice.

Thanks for the encouragement, I appreciate it.

Question -- what is the easiest way ahead of time to at least make an estimation on what the return will be?

One other thing I have done with a few of my pick 3 combos....when I regret not adding a horse to a ticket, I have a bought a straight win ticket on that horse, as a hedge of sorts.

[The Judge]

There is a pic-3 method by the late Ron Cox's that netted him many thousands of dollars that he gave out at a Handicappers Expo siminar. This is from the 90"s and the reseach may well be from the late 80's so I am not sure that the prices are in line with today as Ron played in Northern California and the pick 3 was the main exotic bet as there were no tri's yet. The method is still sound I sure just don't know about the prices.

Do a search post started by Dav4463 "Trifecta, Superfecta, or Pick3, Pick4"
6/01/2006. My post was post #23 Ron Cox's Triple Method. I am sure there is a way to link this post but I don't know how to do it.

[sally]

There is a pic-3 method by the late Ron Cox's that netted him many thousands of dollars that he gave out at a Handicappers Expo siminar. This is from the 90"s and the reseach may well be from the late 80's so I am not sure that the prices are in line with today as Ron played in Northern California and the pick 3 was the main exotic bet as there were no tri's yet. The method is still sound I sure just don't know about the prices.

Do a search post started by Dav4463 "Trifecta, Superfecta, or Pick3, Pick4"
6/01/2006. My post was post #23 Ron Cox's Triple Method. I am sure there is a way to link this post but I don't know how to do it.

I can't find this post... is it too old? I'm curious about the pic-3 method...:rolleyes:

[KyRacer]

Think this is the link. It's on page 2 #23.


Ron's Triple Method (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=28504)

[1st time lasix]

Advice is sometimes only worth what you pay for......but here goes: :ThmbUp: I never ever play a pick three if i must cover the favorite in the first race. If i do because he is logical and i can't find vulnerability....I pass that pool. There are other ways to skin a cat and other options including-PASS. If you like a longshot in a following race...that is fine ....play accordingly in that race or as the start of a multirace wager.......just don't start a pick three with opening leg chalk. Another item....be aware of the takeouts. Some tracks are much lower than others on horizontal plays. I have vowed to avoid 22%-30% venues.

[cnollfan]

I don't bet any pick 3s that don't have a horse at 6-1 or higher somewhere in the sequence.

I don't like using more than half the horses in a race. If I can't narrow it down to half, I'm inclined to use all, unless one or two are unquestionably hopeless.

Pool size plays a part in how I would play. Unless it's a big pool at a major track, I don't duplicate my combinations with the ABC thing, i.e. having it three times if the three As come in.

I use a baseball analogy for Pick 4s but it applies to Pick 3s too. Four home runs in a row are a lot harder to hit than one home run with three runners on base, but the pay is the same. It doesn't take four monsters to make a big payoff -- just one extra-base hit will do it. The other races, you're just trying to get on base.

[point given]

checkout his p4 hit for $18k at saratoga and his tickets

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/2008/07/day-6-72808.html#comments

[punteray]

Hi,

I sent you an e-mail regarding a pick3 software program I wrote. Sometimes e-mails don't get through-----------so-------------if you would like a copy of the program send me an e mail at punteray@yahoo.com


Ray Scalise:)

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

I have asked many how many ways is there to get 2 of 3 when they tell me that they got 2 of 3. Nobody has ever given me a correct answer to the question. But the answer is very simple. In three races with 10 horses there are 9 way in each of the three races to lose when you win the other two. So it would be the total number of horses in each of the three races minus one (the 3 of 3 wiinner) in this case it would be 27 ways to get two of three. And only one way to get 3 of 3.

So you can expect many times to get two of three and not quite get the three of three. But when you do it is very nice.



A story

One time I went a long while not hitting a pick 3 and then I hit one for just over $600. I went home and sat down and said that the pick 3 was very boring that it came out just like I expected!!! Sometimes the pleasure lies in the journey. Like the many times I got two of three and then missed the third and it paid big bucks!! Sometimes it is actually very interesting to lose. Believe it or not!!! ?

[Light]

I it would be 27 ways to get two of three. And only one way to get 3 of 3.

Actually there are 999 wrong combinations and only 1 correct combination in a pk3 with 10 runners in each race. However your odds of hitting this pk3 are not 1000-1 since each horse has a different chance of winning.

[Light]

As far as how many ways you can hit 2 out of 3 the answer would be 10.

0-3=1000 ways
1-3=100 ways
2-3=10 ways
3-3=1 way.

[PennNational11]

Thanks everyone for your responses. That play by Crist was amazing -- I looked at the results charts and the winners for that 7th and 9th were very much long-shots -- he really nailed it. Good for him. I guess that's why he is writing a book on this stuff!

I am going back to Penn tonight. I am only at race 4 in DRF, but, so far, I think it's going to be a tough night for the pick 3. Every race has a few clear contenders -- I think it will be easy to avoid the favorites because what usually happens at Penn in my experience is that one horse will eventually attract a lot of the $$$, even when there are other horses in the race that can win. The problem however is that the number of "other horses that can win" is almost beyond my bankroll. I like sticking to three in each leg, but so far I can identify 4 or so in every race that reasonably could be a winner. I need to study it some more.....maybe it will clear up by post time.

Any other feedback, advice, etc. would be terrific.

Thanks again.

[ryesteve]

As far as how many ways you can hit 2 out of 3 the answer would be 10. No, 27 was the right answer. You can have the first two winners with any of the 9 losers in leg3; you could have the last two winners and any of the 9 losers in leg3; and you could bookend any of the 9 middle race losers with the two winners in the first and third leg. 9x3=27

[Light]

Thats like asking,how many places can a person be at. You could say a million,but the real answer is one at a time. There may be 27 ways to get 2 out of 3 but you can only get it 9 times at a time.Same as when you get 3-3. You only get it 1 time not 3 which would be your logic.

Adjusted for winner

0-3=999ways
1-3=99 ways
2-3=9 ways
3-3=1 way

[WinterTriangle]

It is better to see which races you excel at, bet them and pass the others. Jim

Sometimes the simplest advice is the best. I liked yours.

Since I'm just starting out, I still *practice* wager on paper. I will just do 1 track, with 1 kind of race (maiden, claiming, allowance, etc.), and one kind of wager. I do that for a month and then see where I'm at.

I am learning a ton about what I'm *good at* this way.

There is no way to learn every track, every type of race, etc. unless you diligently keep records.

[PennNational11]

I just thought I would give everyone an update on my latest Pick 3 adventures from last night at Penn National.

I played 4 pick 3's, and 3 of them were terrible. One I only survived to the second leg and the other two I was out on the first leg. I sort of had a bad feeling going into last night and the first pick 3's confirmed that feeling.

However, a ray of sunshine opened up in the 7-8-9 Pick 3. The 7th race was tricky, there was a huge favorite who was taking a big drop in class....but I felt good about a few other horses. They ended up winning, going away, with the big favorite not even hitting the board. The 8th race was also tricky and I only had two horses for coverage, neither of which were the favorite....but they ended up hitting the board 1-2. The 9th race was actually the one I felt best about, When I initially made the bet, I only seriously considered 4 horses.....I ended up playing the 3 that I thought were the best. By the time the race came around, I was worried about another horse too -- the 3 horse. Initially, I passed him up for what I thought were very sensible reasons -- this was a madien claiming, he had lost 16 other madien claimings in his life, his beyer figures were umimpressive, his trainer was new and had never won at Penn National or in his life for that matter, the jockey had a lower win percentage than most of the other jockeys there, etc. The three horses I had all had better beyer numbers, three of the best trainers at Penn National, had come close in other races, etc. I ended up putting $2 to win on the 3 as an insurance bet though.

The race was only five furlongs. Two of my horses on the ticket -- the 4 and 8 -- jumped out to the early lead and held it strong halfway through. I thought for sure one of them would be able to hang on. Then they both just drifted off. One ended up being eased up and the other finished second to last. My third choice was stuck in the middle and no factor. The 3 horse shot up and took it under a mild challenge from a complete longshot I didn't even consider. Another busted Pick 3 -- my 5th in the past week!

It would not have been a huge payoff, but it would have been enough to both finish ahead last night and recoup my losses from the weekend.

One other side note -- while I generally agree that the trainers are important at a track like Penn, I am not sure that's always true. The last two races which screwed up my Pick 3 tickets were won by trainers with no prior victories at Penn over established trainers with many victories. Maybe I just had some awful luck and I should have won at least one of them......but I think the types of horses that race at Penn National guarantee that sometimes you will have unpredictable results, no matter who the trainer is.

If anybody has any other feedback, thoughts, etc., I'd appreciate it.

[Light]

I The 9th race... I was worried about another horse too -- the 3 horse.

Initially, I passed him up for what I thought were very sensible reasons -- this was a madien claiming, he had lost 16 other madien claimings in his life, his beyer figures were umimpressive, his trainer was new and had never won at Penn National or in his life for that matter, the jockey had a lower win percentage than most of the other jockeys there, etc. The three horses I had all had better beyer numbers, three of the best trainers at Penn National, had come close in other races, etc. I ended up putting $2 to win on the 3 as an insurance bet though....

the 3 horse shot up and took it




I've learned that lesson over and over again. So much so that I ignore all stats in maiden races as a general rule. At least I try to. My theory is that in maiden races,the game is more leveled because none of the horses have won therefore none of the winning stats apply. I have seen much more improbable scenarios than you described. Just unbelievable.And end up pissed at myself for letting something so lucrative slip away because of stats. Stats are a double edged sword.Can help but also hurt. In races for winners,I cant tell you how many times I've had 4 horses I like and decide to throw out the one with the weakest stats and that horse has won. Works sometimes but not always.

I've been playing almost 25 years and it is only recently that I have been able to bet against my own conditioning. For example in a recent pk3 sequence I liked a horse trying the turf for the first time. Further investigation into his turf breeding stat showed his sire to be 1-53 on Turf. An eay throwout,right? Wrong. Closed with authority and won going away,and for one of the few times,I felt free from the illusions of stats.

Bottom line is if a horse looks good,looks ready to win,take him regardless of stats. Stats dont win,horses do.

[ryesteve]

Thats like asking,how many places can a person be at. You could say a million,but the real answer is one at a time. There may be 27 ways to get 2 out of 3 but you can only get it 9 times at a time.Same as when you get 3-3. You only get it 1 time not 3 which would be your logic.
No, there's only one way to get all three winners. And I don't understand where you're getting "9 at a time" from. If you play ALL-ALL-ALL you will have 2 out of 3 27 times. This is simple combinatorics... there's nothing metaphysical about it.

[Light]

. And I don't understand where you're getting "9 at a time" from. If you play ALL-ALL-ALL you will have 2 out of 3 27 times.

I dont see where, in the statement(below) I responded to it says the play is an all/all/all ticket. I assumed a straight $1 bet of 2 winners and one loser which would result in 9 ways of getting 2/3. I agree that an all/all/all would be 27 ways to get 2/3 but the reason I didnt even think of an all/all/all ticket is because its unrealistic. Who is going to play and all/all/all $1 pk3 costing $1000 to make $50? Who would really care in that case how many 2/3 you can get? Actually who even cares for a $1 ticket? Dont get the point. In a pk6,it would have some meaning for how many consolations you would have for your investment. My only interest here was from a mathematical point of view.

have asked many how many ways is there to get 2 of 3 when they tell me that they got 2 of 3. Nobody has ever given me a correct answer to the question. But the answer is very simple. In three races with 10 horses there are 9 way in each of the three races to lose when you win the other two. So it would be the total number of horses in each of the three races minus one (the 3 of 3 wiinner) in this case it would be 27 ways to get two of three. And only one way to get 3 of 3.

[ryesteve]

My only interest here was from a mathematical point of view.And your math is wrong. Honest. The answer is 27. I only brought up an ALL-ALL-ALL ticket, because the original question was, out of ALL the possible combinations, how many ways can you have 2 out of 3 winners.

I assumed a straight $1 bet of 2 winners and one loser which would result in 9 ways of getting 2/3The problem is that you're not considering WHICH two winners you have. There are 3 pairs of possible winners.

[Light]

And your math is wrong. Honest. The answer is 27.

How can my math be wrong when I just agreed with you about an "all" ticket?

The problem is that you're not considering WHICH two winners you have. There are 3 pairs of possible winners.

Doesnt matter which 2 you have. Comes out the same.

[point given]

Try betting p3's at another track where things are more formful. I know its your local track, but with small purses, a trainer cashing a nice ticket may be worth more . Try B level tracks, A level usually have the sharpies and value is not there as often. I think you will find it easier than Penn. I've been playing awhile and there are subtle class drops and rises that I don't see or know at Penn, but sharp locals do. Hang in there.

[ryesteve]

I just agreed with youI'll just leave it at that, since the question, as asked, only has one answer.

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

There are 1000 combinations in a three race pick 3.

There is only one winning combination with the three winning horses assuming there is no dead heats. Just one winning combination.

If someone tells you that they have two of three then you know that they of one of the 27 different ways you can get the two of three in a pick 3.

The other 972 combinations are also losers and they would have just one of three correct or none of three correct.

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

Here is a version of a great pick 3 play if you have a single in one race.

It gives you 2,4,5,or 7 winning tickets for $31.00.


race 1 race 2 race 3
$7.00 A A SINGLE

$5.00 A B SINGLE

$5.00 B A SINGLE

$4.00 B B SINGLE

$2.00 A C SINGLE

$2.00 C A SINGLE

$2.00 B C SINGLE

$2.00 C B SINGLE

$2.00 C C SINGLE

$31.00 TOTAL