$110 to win.

[KMS]

4th race Sunday at LaD, the 1 horse, Belligerence pays 110.00, 43.40, 10.60. For kicks, why not have a look at his pp, run your spreadsheet, etc, and see if there's anything you might have noticed to clue you in. Trackmaster had him ranked on top in Average Class at the Distance/Surface, and it was his second start after a layoff, but that wouldn't have been enough for me to jump on him.

[cmoore]

4th race Sunday at LaD, the 1 horse, Belligerence pays 110.00, 43.40, 10.60. For kicks, why not have a look at his pp, run your spreadsheet, etc, and see if there's anything you might have noticed to clue you in. Trackmaster had him ranked on top in Average Class at the Distance/Surface, and it was his second start after a layoff, but that wouldn't have been enough for me to jump on him.

trainer is 0 for 27...jockey is 6%..Some races there aren't any explanations..

[BillW]

trainer is 0 for 27...jockey is 6%..Some races there aren't any explanations..

That explains the 54-1 :lol:

[ezrabrooks]

Takes a little drop, OP races weren't an embarrassment..OP speed fits with this group, but.... I couldn't have come up with this runner.

[applebee]

[QUOTE=KMS]4th race Sunday at LaD, the 1 horse, Belligerence pays 110.00, 43.40, 10.60. For kicks, why not have a look at his pp, run your spreadsheet, etc, and see if there's anything you might have noticed to clue you in. Trackmaster had him ranked on top in Average Class at the Distance/Surface, and it was his second start after a layoff, but that wouldn't have been enough for me to jump on him.[/QUO

Ok you got my curiosity up so I downloaded the file.This is a classic
example of a LESSOR OF EVILS race. Belligerence fits Quite nicely into
the who is trying category.
class of race, sideways drop to nw1y, taking weight off,2nd start after layoff,
and comparing to the rest of the losers in the race was the lessor of evils.
The two 3/1 shots were the 2 who was going slower the cheaper he ran for,
and the 9 drops from 20000 to 5000 no way can you bet that horse.

OH I forgot I like grey horses:)

[toetoe]

Recipe for disaster: "Take the average class ..." :bang:

WTF is "average class ?" These days, any horse with just average class has a huge shot at winning just about anywhere. :rolleyes:

[ezrabrooks]

Average class is WTF you want it to be..

[dav4463]

Are you allowed to post the PP's for that race here? If so, could somebody put the DRF pp for that race on this thread? I would like to take a look at it.

[njcurveball]

and see if there's anything you might have noticed to clue you in. .

I have a lot of spot plays triggered for horses who are #1 in 3rd fraction, but this one missed some parameters and that certainly did not make me happy when I saw the price. The horse also had the lowest early energy in the field which was a perfect set-up if you were looking for a closer from the inside in a route race.

Many times you miss these horses because you don't trust the rankings and start "handicapping". HTR used the last line and looking at it with a 7th place finish beaten 12 lengths most would move right on to the next horse.

Wish I could tell you there were dozens of other reasons, but basically the #1 3rd fraction was the biggest reason to take a "leap of faith" on this one. Definitely would have been worth a flyer as a tourney play. :ThmbUp:

Jim

[ezrabrooks]

Another Red Boarder heard from..

[ranchwest]

TSN had the horse with the highest lifetime SR. Obviously needed the layoff. I don't see much else that would attract my attention to this horse.

[cnollfan]

I don't think it's a redboard when somebody asks about a race after the fact. If the only ones allowed to comment were the ones who told us before the race that they liked Belligerence, well, that would be a pretty thin thread.

[skate]

Good point there cnollfan, some want to be as shallow as possible.

[JustRalph]

ok, after all this discussion, I downloaded the card just to look.


I wouldn't have bet the horse.......... no way......no how..........if I was looking for a raw closer .............. 6 and 8 would have been better plays I think. The pace wasn't hot and this horse didn't run like a closer. Sometimes you just scratch your head...............

This horse was near the lead the whole race according to the chart.

I don't see it. But I think he was an underlay. If you bet this horse, you should have received 90-1 odds........... :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Another Red Boarder heard from..For the record, this type of tired-ass comment is SO unnecessary.

[ranchwest]

4th race Sunday at LaD, the 1 horse, Belligerence pays 110.00, 43.40, 10.60. For kicks, why not have a look at his pp, run your spreadsheet, etc, and see if there's anything you might have noticed to clue you in. Trackmaster had him ranked on top in Average Class at the Distance/Surface, and it was his second start after a layoff, but that wouldn't have been enough for me to jump on him.

For NW1Y 5K sometimes you have to dig deep. Back class and second off the shelf is not a bad angle for this type of race. It ain't the Ky Derby. :) I know this one is tough to come up with, but that's the nature of the beast in some of these cheap races.

[skate]

Poor last out, not a good reason to drop a good priced horse.

Highest in class, good reason to play ( win ,Exacta, Tri), all this and a big odds play, how could anyone not include this horse. Redboard, fine, just look at the facts.

The only horse close to #1 (because of his odds) would be the nine, but #9 takes a big big drop, could be a question especially when we consider that the #1 has won Three Times what the Nine has won.

This is not a "form type race" i.e. none of these horses ever keeps form.

Again, the odds alone permit a play.

One other point, a high track Variant along with a very good close, puts the #1 in the race.



You made me do it:kiss:

[applebee]

We may need to give the bug boy (dugas) a little respect. Yesterday
0731 in the fifth he dragged a 40-1 up for second ! 38.00 t0 place