Conventional Handicapping Works Great at Del Mar

[ManeMediaMogul]

My handicapping was excellent at Del Mar yesterday. I had four winners in the Pick Six - Dr. JJ ($12), Black Astor ($11), Weekend Escape ($49) and Gold Star Status ($49). I also hit the quinella with Runnin Onasugarhi ($351) in the Weekend Escape race and the tri in the finale ($498).

I didn't change a thing in the way I handicap. I had a good day at Saratoga too and that is on dirt.

It seems like a lot of forum members use track surface as a built in excuse for losing.

Last weekend, I bet on 15 winners out of 18 races at The Red Mile quarterhorse races and the weekend before that, I had the lone pick four ticket in an all turf sequence at a foreign racetrack.

If you do the work, you can win anywhere.

[Turfday]

NM

[Ron]

Is this what some people call redboarding?

[ManeMediaMogul]

Is this what some people call redboarding?

No redboarding here...I know nobody gives a rat's ass who I bet and I'm not looking for any kudos.

I just can't figure out why people on this forum continually bellyache about almost everything - synthetic tracks, cheating trainers, horrible track management, etc. etc. etc.

Handicapping is a puzzle...a game. It is up to us to figure out who has a chance to win and if the odds exceed that chance, figure out the best way to bet. It is the same puzzle on the flat, over jumps, at 350 yards, on turf, going clock-wise or counter clock-wise.

Jack Nicklaus said, "The key to success is adjustment. If you can't adjust, the field will pass you by."

I'm just hoping to spur a few players to keep working at it and not just follow the "Synthetics suck. I'm taking my Form and going home" crowd.

[thruncy]

The thrill of defeat. The agony of victory!

[big frank]

My handicapping was excellent at Del Mar yesterday. I had four winners in the Pick Six - Dr. JJ ($12), Black Astor ($11), Weekend Escape ($49) and Gold Star Status ($49). I also hit the quinella with Runnin Onasugarhi ($351) in the Weekend Escape race and the tri in the finale ($498).

I didn't change a thing in the way I handicap. I had a good day at Saratoga too and that is on dirt.

It seems like a lot of forum members use track surface as a built in excuse for losing.

Last weekend, I bet on 15 winners out of 18 races at The Red Mile quarterhorse races and the weekend before that, I had the lone pick four ticket in an all turf sequence at a foreign racetrack.

If you do the work, you can win anywhere. i was going to make a similar post.... if you know speed isnt holding on a certain track ,, why would you still bet early speed horses and cry afterwards that speed was stopping ? instead of using early speed types ,, why not just bet the horses with the best LATE pace figs ? That is why i also nailed DR JJ as he had the best LATE kick,,,, and BLACK ASTOR should have been 3-1 as he was lone speed on the turf.. You cant play every track the same way ,, you have to adjust and not cry about what is not working.. i hated betting closers in the past but now if there are a couple of speeds in the race at Del Mar , just look for the best finishers..

[discodog]

Being around this game for 50 years. I think you are on ACID.

[ponyplayer]

Post 'em, then you can toot your horn, and we will join you in passing out congrats. :cool:

[skate]

I doubt that "the Point" being made, was for Congrats.:eek:


I like "the point".;)


Didn't mater if races were won or lost.:kiss:

[trying2win]

I agree with RON and PONYPLAYER'S comments :ThmbUp:


T2W

[garyscpa]

Have to agree with MMM that Del Mar is much more formful this year.

[Irish Boy]

Redboarding or no, I will say that I don't buy the argument that poly tracks are crapshoots. The Keeneland spring meet was everything handicappers hope for, with a good mix of moderately-priced horses running in all styles, and Arlington has been a bit more of the same, although the prices haven't been as good. I think it's just easier to blame the track.

[Light]

I had four winners in the Pick Six - .... Weekend Escape ($49) and Gold Star Status ($49).

You usually need unconventional handicapping to land these kind of prices,not conventional.

[JustRalph]

Redboarding or no, I will say that I don't buy the argument that poly tracks are crapshoots. The Keeneland spring meet was everything handicappers hope for, with a good mix of moderately-priced horses running in all styles, and Arlington has been a bit more of the same, although the prices haven't been as good. I think it's just easier to blame the track.

Yeah right. Jocks running sprints as slow as they possibly can and then sprinting their horses home while they all get tangled in traffic was everything I hope for. BTW, I am talking about Keeneland. It has turned into a damn joke. I love the place. But if I go back again, I will be playing the other tracks via Simul and just enjoying the Keeneland atmosphere. No more of my money goes into their pools until they make adjustments.

[jonnielu]

No redboarding here...I know nobody gives a rat's ass who I bet and I'm not looking for any kudos.

I just can't figure out why people on this forum continually bellyache about almost everything - synthetic tracks, cheating trainers, horrible track management, etc. etc. etc.

Handicapping is a puzzle...a game. It is up to us to figure out who has a chance to win and if the odds exceed that chance, figure out the best way to bet. It is the same puzzle on the flat, over jumps, at 350 yards, on turf, going clock-wise or counter clock-wise.

Jack Nicklaus said, "The key to success is adjustment. If you can't adjust, the field will pass you by."

I'm just hoping to spur a few players to keep working at it and not just follow the "Synthetics suck. I'm taking my Form and going home" crowd.


There are no losers when the excuses are in order, nobody wants to lose, and nobody wants a loser. It is important to understand this at the track, if someone starts thinking that they are a loser, they might go find some other diversion. So it is important to understand that the ever changing surface, the bad trip, form cycle, and weather make horse racing the ever changing whirligig tilt-a-whirl ride that it is.

The fact is that the modern game has become more suitable for the gambler, and less suitable for the handicapper that insists on there being one horse that is so much better then the rest that he can identify an appreciable edge.

The handicapper doesn't want to hear the news that there are three solid contenders in every race and that the choice between them is actually just a shot, and that he may as well just take the odds like hat pin Mary over there. He is much happier knowing that he is a lot smarter then hat pin Mary, and his 3 - 5 selection just happened to fall victim to polytrack voodoo.

jdl

[ManeMediaMogul]

You usually need unconventional handicapping to land these kind of prices,not conventional.

Weekend Escape was not outclassed, was running at the proper distance, hailed from a good barn and had a solid shot in a wide open race. I made him an 8-1 contender on my line. The public thought worse of him, hence the $49 mutuel.

Gold Star Status had run some decent races, changed trainers to Peter Eurton, posted a very nice workout at Del Mar and attracted the services of excellent rider Mike Baze. I made him a 10-1 contender on my line. Even the "get out in the nightcap" players ignored him and another $49.

Overlays happen everyday. Two $49 winners on the same day is Hope Diamond rare but more likely to happen at Del Mar or Saratoga on a weekend when the tourists are loading up on the morning line favorites.

[Imriledup]

My handicapping was excellent at Del Mar yesterday. I had four winners in the Pick Six - Dr. JJ ($12), Black Astor ($11), Weekend Escape ($49) and Gold Star Status ($49). I also hit the quinella with Runnin Onasugarhi ($351) in the Weekend Escape race and the tri in the finale ($498).

I didn't change a thing in the way I handicap. I had a good day at Saratoga too and that is on dirt.

It seems like a lot of forum members use track surface as a built in excuse for losing.

Last weekend, I bet on 15 winners out of 18 races at The Red Mile quarterhorse races and the weekend before that, I had the lone pick four ticket in an all turf sequence at a foreign racetrack.

If you do the work, you can win anywhere.

What it comes down to is that no one cares if you win and if you come on here and beat your chest after the fact, it does no one any good. No one really wants to hear about your scores and most of us will be rooting hard for you to lose all that money back...that's just how horseplayers are. If you want to talk about stuff like this you really need to come on here before the fact and release these horses to the board. If you release winners here, we will all be happy for you and share in your joy. Anyone is an expert after the fact, what we really need is you to come on here before these races are run and release your picks and analysis....that way, if you win, you'll be believable.

[MarquisMark]

What it comes down to is that no one cares if you win and if you come on here and beat your chest after the fact, it does no one any good. No one really wants to hear about your scores and most of us will be rooting hard for you to lose all that money back...that's just how horseplayers are.

I don't think that's necessarily true. I don't mind hearing that someone caught a nice overlay like that. It's encouraging to hear that it can still happen to any of us. And if someone can't talk about a nice score here on a horse racing handicapping forum, then where should they?

And why would you root for someone to lose all their money back just because they caught a winner at a great price? That is just the pettiest and ugliest side of envy rearing it's head.

[jonnielu]

What it comes down to is that no one cares if you win and if you come on here and beat your chest after the fact, it does no one any good. No one really wants to hear about your scores and most of us will be rooting hard for you to lose all that money back...that's just how horseplayers are. If you want to talk about stuff like this you really need to come on here before the fact and release these horses to the board. If you release winners here, we will all be happy for you and share in your joy. Anyone is an expert after the fact, what we really need is you to come on here before these races are run and release your picks and analysis....that way, if you win, you'll be believable.

And that immediately brings it down to reality, what you really believe in is something for nothing, just give you the fish, you are too lazy to learn how to fish anyway. The other reality is that for anyone that does make money from horseracing isn't all that interested in what you do or don't believe, at least not enough to hand you $40 winners when you could never see them yourself.

What makes it even worse is that you don't learn a damn thing and don't even say thanks, the last day I posted at BEL, there was a $65.00 winner along with two other contenders for the trifecta in the first race, and you didn't even notice.

So why should anyone care about what you know, don't know, believe, or don't believe, when you are too lazy to pickup something for nothing in the first place.

But, go ahead, just keep doing what you have been doing, and if someone tries to come in here and wise you up by offering some good news, or otherwise attempts to offer something for your consideration, kick them in the face and shout them down. Because nothing could be right unless you thought of it in the first place.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I don't think that's necessarily true. I don't mind hearing that someone caught a nice overlay like that. It's encouraging to hear that it can still happen to any of us. And if someone can't talk about a nice score here on a horse racing handicapping forum, then where should they?

And why would you root for someone to lose all their money back just because they caught a winner at a great price? That is just the pettiest and ugliest side of envy rearing it's head.

Well Mark,

Welcome to the board, I do hope that you can hang in. Many here are quite adverse to someone pecking out their piece with such honesty. Accurate observations also draw much criticism. I find your candor refreshing though.

Long may you run.

jdl

[Imriledup]

And that immediately brings it down to reality, what you really believe in is something for nothing, just give you the fish, you are too lazy to learn how to fish anyway. The other reality is that for anyone that does make money from horseracing isn't all that interested in what you do or don't believe, at least not enough to hand you $40 winners when you could never see them yourself.

What makes it even worse is that you don't learn a damn thing and don't even say thanks, the last day I posted at BEL, there was a $65.00 winner along with two other contenders for the trifecta in the first race, and you didn't even notice.

So why should anyone care about what you know, don't know, believe, or don't believe, when you are too lazy to pickup something for nothing in the first place.

But, go ahead, just keep doing what you have been doing, and if someone tries to come in here and wise you up by offering some good news, or otherwise attempts to offer something for your consideration, kick them in the face and shout them down. Because nothing could be right unless you thought of it in the first place.

jdl

Is your post to me? I was reading it and had absolutely no idea what you are talking about....maybe you quoted my post by mistake?

[jonnielu]

Is your post to me? I was reading it and had absolutely no idea what you are talking about....maybe you quoted my post by mistake?

No, I'm talking about your unrealistic expectations.

jdl

[Tom]

I don't think that's necessarily true. I don't mind hearing that someone caught a nice overlay like that. It's encouraging to hear that it can still happen to any of us. And if someone can't talk about a nice score here on a horse racing handicapping forum, then where should they?

And why would you root for someone to lose all their money back just because they caught a winner at a great price? That is just the pettiest and ugliest side of envy rearing it's head.

I would like a post like that to start a dialouge. How did he hit them? What are "conventional" methods to him? Which horses - give an example.

[Light]

MMM

I'm dont have issue believing you caught these horses. My issue is your claim that in order to catch them you used conventional handicapping. It may be conventional to you but not the public.

Weekend Escape was not outclassed, was running at the proper distance, hailed from a good barn and had a solid shot in a wide open race. I made him an 8-1 contender on my line. The public thought worse of him, hence the $49 mutuel.

You got that price for 3 reasons.

1) Weekend Escape was off since Feb 18 2007. Conventional wisdom says to stay away

2)The horse was trying the dirt for the first time in 6 starts. Unknowns are a no no in conventional capping especially off a long layoff.

3) The only American race the horse raced in earned a lowly 81(Bris). Compare that to the favorite who had a 93. Unconventional handicapping would project the maturity of WE from his 81 as a 3yo to his present 4yo status. Conventional handicapping would not.

Gold Star Status had run some decent races, changed trainers to Peter Eurton, posted a very nice workout at Del Mar and attracted the services of excellent rider Mike Baze. I made him a 10-1 contender on my line. Even the "get out in the nightcap" players ignored him and another $49.

Gold Star Status lost by 17 lengths in his last start and never showed the ability to close that he did in winning. Conventional capping will never embrace horses with this kind of form.

Unconventional handicapping would note that he was the only class dropper and that class droppers do very well specifically in Mdn $25k sprints down south regardless of their lowly speed rating. Unconventional handicapping would also note the turn back in distance from 7f to 6 1/2 and adjust his SR accordingly.Conventional capping never adjusts sprint distances(from 5f to 7 1/2f) and take SR's at face value leading to huge overlays.

Overlays happen everyday. Two $49 winners on the same day is Hope Diamond rare but more likely to happen at Del Mar or Saratoga on a weekend when the tourists are loading up on the morning line favorites.

Conventional capping is used by the public and leads to favorites,not $49 horses.Unconventional handicapping is used by more sophisticated players to uncover $49 horses.

[ManeMediaMogul]

MMM

I'm dont have issue believing you caught these horses. My issue is your claim that in order to catch them you used conventional handicapping. It may be conventional to you but not the public.



You got that price for 3 reasons.

1) Weekend Escape was off since Feb 18 2007. Conventional wisdom says to stay away

2)The horse was trying the dirt for the first time in 6 starts. Unknowns are a no no in conventional capping especially off a long layoff.

3) The only American race the horse raced in earned a lowly 81(Bris). Compare that to the favorite who had a 93. Unconventional handicapping would project the maturity of WE from his 81 as a 3yo to his present 4yo status. Conventional handicapping would not.



Gold Star Status lost by 17 lengths in his last start and never showed the ability to close that he did in winning. Conventional capping will never embrace horses with this kind of form.

Unconventional handicapping would note that he was the only class dropper and that class droppers do very well specifically in Mdn $25k sprints down south regardless of their lowly speed rating. Unconventional handicapping would also note the turn back in distance from 7f to 6 1/2 and adjust his SR accordingly.Conventional capping never adjusts sprint distances(from 5f to 7 1/2f) and take SR's at face value leading to huge overlays.



Conventional capping is used by the public and leads to favorites,not $49 horses.Unconventional handicapping is used by more sophisticated players to uncover $49 horses.

Semantics.

The people on this forum are supposed to be "aware," not lemmings that play the horse with the best speed rating in their last start providing they finished in the money within the last 28 days.

Handicapping is grading a horse's chances to perform well. Then, you can assign them fair odds and wager when the price is right.

Conventional to me are the countless theories written in handicapping books and articles that I have read since the third grade. I put those to use six days a week. I don't do voodoo, ouija boards, numerology or clever names - just the usual handicapping theory - pace, speed, running style, class, breeding, connections, form, track bias and the like.

I am not always right. Some times I am waaaaaaay off. But most of the time, my betting line puts me in a good position to be successful.

[Light]

Semantics.

Its a key word in your introduction. You should choose your words more carefully.

The people on this forum are supposed to be "aware," not lemmings...

There are many misconceptions about Lemmings. Please leave them out of this.

Conventional to me are the countless theories written in handicapping books and articles that I have read since the third grade. I put those to use six days a week. I don't do voodoo, ouija boards, numerology or clever names - just the usual handicapping theory - pace, speed, running style, class, breeding, connections, form, track bias and the like.

Tell me what conventional handicapping books tell you to bet horses like WE with a year layoff,trying the dirt for the first time and against older for the first time? Tell me what books tell you to bet horses who lost by 17 lengths in their last start after dropping and predict that they will close for the first time ever like the other $49 horse?

[Irish Boy]

Conventional capping is used by the public and leads to favorites,not $49 horses.Unconventional handicapping is used by more sophisticated players to uncover $49 horses.

I agree with you for the most part, but not always. There was a $30 winner at Arlington about a week ago that could have been figured out quite easily. By speed figures, he was the second-most competitive horse in the race, and perhaps the most consistent (always in the 61-66 range). The favorite was a Calabrese horse (but not Catalano-trained) capable of hitting 70s, but without too much of an edge. The next best horse was scratched, for whatever reason, but was part of a double entry, and the inferior horse, who was still running, was taking more action than its form would indicate. 15-1 was ridiculous, and right there for anyone who wanted to spot it (I don't think too much of my handicapping skills, so I imagine that others would be able to see it in hindsight too.) Those horses don't come up every day, but it's nice to capitalize on those belt-high fastballs right down the heart of the plate.

[RichieP]

I would like a post like that to start a dialouge. How did he hit them? What are "conventional" methods to him? Which horses - give an example.

Agree 100%.

Put some meat on the bones and lay a little something out as far as method/thoughts etc.

[Imriledup]

No, I'm talking about your unrealistic expectations.

jdl

I don't get what you are trying to say. I don't have any expectations. All i'm saying is don't come on here and make yourself out to be some big expert unless you post the selections before the races are actually run.

[cj]

I don't get what you are trying to say. I don't have any expectations. All i'm saying is don't come on here and make yourself out to be some big expert unless you post the selections before the races are actually run.

He prefers to post Sudoku puzzles.

[Bruddah]

I think it's a need for attention. However, there is not a handicapper on this board which hasn't told a friend about a Big Score after the fact. I would hope we all see this community of cyber cappers as just that, FRIENDS. So much so, we ALL fail to realize we step on cyber ettiquete(sp?) sometimes.

ManeMediaMogul initial post is forgiveable, in my eyes. He is a respected member of this board and has some very good insight into the Thoroughbred Industry. I have appreciated the knowledge and thought of many of his posts. We could get the same information from him, by asking, rather than attacking.

I would think after this thread he will never Red Board again. :lol: :D

[Pace Cap'n]

A recent poll on this board indicated redboarding was not a problem for a substantial majority of the responders.

Perhaps those of you who are offended by the original post should reconsider.

www.paceadvantage.com/forum/ (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=47718&highlight=redboard+poll)

[jonnielu]

I don't get what you are trying to say. I don't have any expectations. All i'm saying is don't come on here and make yourself out to be some big expert unless you post the selections before the races are actually run.

How is the guy making himself out to be anything, he opened a thread and stated his opinion that there is no voodoo at DelMar. I assume he did so in response to several "DelMar is baffling me" threads.

So you walk into the track at the 6th race, and someone there offers to you that the speed has been holding up well so far today, do you lambast him with your hotdog and accuse him of making himself out to be some kind of expert?

jdl

[cj]

How is the guy making himself out to be anything, he opened a thread and stated his opinion that there is no voodoo at DelMar. I assume he did so in response to several "DelMar is baffling me" threads.

So you walk into the track at the 6th race, and someone there offers to you that the speed has been holding up well so far today, do you lambast him with your hotdog and accuse him of making himself out to be some kind of expert?

jdl

Please point me to the "DelMar is baffling me" thread.

As for the lambasting, if I see a guy and he tells me "speed is holding, and by the way, I have hit every race including a few 20+ to 1 shots", I'll probably have him buy me a hot dog.

[jonnielu]

He prefers to post Sudoku puzzles.

I prefer to make $2 bets on an online account for proof of what I bet as opposed to handing out valuable information for free. But, go ahead and through rocks at me and my methods that allow me to see first place finishers from $30 - $130 dollars. Make all the fun you want, say I'm trying to act like I'm smarter then you or better then you, because you just display it as another thing that you fail to understand.


Track R# Wager Runner(s) Conditions Bet Amt Return Amt Won/Lost
COMPLETED: 37282716682106 SAR #8 $2 Win 7 <none> $ 2.00 $ 0.00 - $ 2.00
COMPLETED: 37064595051906 SAR #8 $1 Pick-3 7,WT,2,WT,7 <none> $ 1.00 $ 0.00 - $ 1.00
COMPLETED: 15862308257567 SAR #9 $2 Win 2 <none> $ 2.00 $ 0.00 - $ 2.00
COMPLETED: 12329632432889 SAR #10 $2 Win 7 <none> $ 2.00 $ 33.40 + $ 31.40
COMPLETED: 19005852561424 SAR #4 $2 Win 2 <none> $ 2.00 $ 0.00 - $ 2.00
Account Balance: $ 93.00 Totals (accepted wagers): $ 9.00 $ 33.40 + $ 24.40
"OPEN" Conditional Wagers (not yet sent to tote): $ 0.00 Pending Wagers: $ 0.00

Call me arrogant, condescending, and anything else you care to whip out of your name calling bag, because all I've done is spend some of my time trying to point out to you what is actually happening, just like the guy that started this thread.

It appears to me that everybody that comes on this forum and attempts to talk some horseracing gets the same kind of treatment. What's the matter, you don't like to see another point of view discussed.

You wonder if race tracks are afraid of winners, I wonder if you are afraid of people that know something about horseracing?

Just delete the parts you find objectionable.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Please point me to the "DelMar is baffling me" thread.

As for the lambasting, if I see a guy and he tells me "speed is holding, and by the way, I have hit every race including a few 20+ to 1 shots", I'll probably have him buy me a hot dog.

I wasn't talking to you, one thread that comes to mind is the forget speed at DelMar thread.

If your vision is limited to the point that you can see no 20 - 1 shots, that doesn't mean that nobody can see them.

The thing that amazes me is that I get the impression from you that you don't want to see them, it is like you take a longshot win as an affront instead of taking it as a message that you might be missing something.

Saratoga is tapping out the message again, every year it gets sent out loud and clear. When do you open your ears? Because the 20-1 winners are not going away, if anything, they are becoming more consistent.

Handicapping the modern game, with the methods of the last 30 years will get you where you are. Want to play the modern game with those methods? Go ahead, set your feet in concrete, you've gone as far as you can. Too bad you can't see a little farther.

Just delete whichever parts that feel you don't agree with.

jdl

[cj]

I wasn't talking to you, one thread that comes to mind is the forget speed at DelMar thread.

If your vision is limited to the point that you can see no 20 - 1 shots, that doesn't mean that nobody can see them.

The thing that amazes me is that I get the impression from you that you don't want to see them, it is like you take a longshot win as an affront instead of taking it as a message that you might be missing something.

Saratoga is tapping out the message again, every year it gets sent out loud and clear. When do you open your ears? Because the 20-1 winners are not going away, if anything, they are becoming more consistent.

Handicapping the modern game, with the methods of the last 30 years will get you where you are. Want to play the modern game with those methods? Go ahead, set your feet in concrete, you've gone as far as you can. Too bad you can't see a little farther.

Just delete whichever parts that feel you don't agree with.

jdl

You have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to me and my wagering. When have I ever said longshots are an "affront" to me?

[Charlie D]

, polytrack voodoo.

jdl

:D

[MarquisMark]

Okay, to try and change the subject a little bit....

Is it just me or does it seem like early speed and holding it is not making much of a difference at Del Mar? I have been reviewing result charts and it seems to me that a number of winners have either gotten off slow or have gotten off quick, faded back, and then come back to close it in the stretch (examples: #2 on 7/20 and #3 on 7/24)

From what I've read about the sport so far, I've heard that early speed and getting lead on the rail in sprints is often key to winning the race, at least on dirt tracks. On turf, I know it is another matter...

At last Hollywood meet, it seemed that the outside posts on sprints were more of an advantage than the rail. And the inside post at Del Mar for 6f is near dead..only 1 win in 24 starts.

Is this just a characteristic of the new artificial racing surfaces? Does Polytrack, Cushiontrack, et al take that speed/rail bias that you always hear so much about out of the races and make pace more important? Would it be advantageous to handicap polytrack sprints like a turf sprint?

I've only recently become interested in thoroughbred racing and I have primarily been playing the SoCal tracks. Since all CA tracks are now artificial, I am starting to wonder how much of what I have read/learned regarding speed/pace/track bias on dirt surfaces will hold up for artificial surfaces.

I am looking forward to checking out that book about artifical surfaces by Bill Finley but it has yet to be released.

Well, anyways, if you all got any input on this I'd love to hear it. Thanks.

[jonnielu]

You have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to me and my wagering. When have I ever said longshots are an "affront" to me?

I didn't say that you said that, this is what I said:


The thing that amazes me is that I get the impression from you that you don't want to see them, it is like you take a longshot win as an affront instead of taking it as a message that you might be missing something.



Yes, I don't know anything about your wagering, if you do any, and there is no way that I could care less. I am just guessing that it has been a longer time since you have been in line to bet your $20 on a 65 - 1 horse then what it has been for me.

I would be assuming that there is no way that you could bet the #7 in Saratoga's 10th today. And, if you were witness to the spectacle, you might have assigned the win to some form of cheating, and then it was off the grass too. And, I am speculating that you would see an ML of 30 - 1 as a kiss of death.

I would expect that you would see the race differently from my take, but for me to assume that you would lean more to the #11 just on speed could be a case of me not giving you credit for sense that you probably do have. An analyst in possession of some accumen such as you are, might look more to the #4. #4 would also appear to be well set for this pace coming off of the even performance of last.

But, then the #2 offers the same qualities at a similar price and may be more suitable. I would still be assuming, but I would expect that you would discount the #7 as too slow, and let the 30 - 1 ML affirm that take.

This is where we differ, I see #11, #4, and #7 as virtually equal, all three go into my PK3 play, because I am just not smart enough to tell you which one will win. There is only 1 point difference between #11 and #7 on my nonsense ratings that don't mean anything anyway, but nevermind that, along with the results.

The reason that I bet the #7 to win, even though I see 3 equal horses here is A. he is slow, B. he has the same ability to run the 8.5f as #11 C. He's 30 -1. That is an overlay. Worth the shot.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Okay, to try and change the subject a little bit....

Is it just me or does it seem like early speed and holding it is not making much of a difference at Del Mar? I have been reviewing result charts and it seems to me that a number of winners have either gotten off slow or have gotten off quick, faded back, and then come back to close it in the stretch (examples: #2 on 7/20 and #3 on 7/24)

From what I've read about the sport so far, I've heard that early speed and getting lead on the rail in sprints is often key to winning the race, at least on dirt tracks. On turf, I know it is another matter...

At last Hollywood meet, it seemed that the outside posts on sprints were more of an advantage than the rail. And the inside post at Del Mar for 6f is near dead..only 1 win in 24 starts.

Is this just a characteristic of the new artificial racing surfaces? Does Polytrack, Cushiontrack, et al take that speed/rail bias that you always hear so much about out of the races and make pace more important? Would it be advantageous to handicap polytrack sprints like a turf sprint?

I've only recently become interested in thoroughbred racing and I have primarily been playing the SoCal tracks. Since all CA tracks are now artificial, I am starting to wonder how much of what I have read/learned regarding speed/pace/track bias on dirt surfaces will hold up for artificial surfaces.

I am looking forward to checking out that book about artifical surfaces by Bill Finley but it has yet to be released.

Well, anyways, if you all got any input on this I'd love to hear it. Thanks.

I'd imagine that CJ could fix you right up on this subject matter.

[cj]

I am just guessing that it has been a longer time since you have been in line to bet your $20 on a 65 - 1 horse then what it has been for me.

jdl

You are probably guessing wrong. I bet hundreds of horses per week, many of them longshots. The rest of your conjecture is ridiculous. We should probably just avoid each other, and I'll start now by leaving you alone.

If you ever want help on how to run a successful web site, complete with customers, send me a PM.

[Charlie D]

Mark

Handicap poly,Tepeta, Cushiontrack, Proride, Dirt and Turf like this


Suitablility to surface, sutiability to distance, suitability to todays race conditions, suitability to todays race shape


If there are no runs in PP on the surface or distance, get stuck into the pedigree and make an educated guess regarding suitability, but allow for this educated guess in the odds

If your still unsure PASS the race, there will be another race along shortly


Hope this hepls

[jonnielu]

You are probably guessing wrong. I bet hundreds of horses per week, many of them longshots. The rest of your conjecture is ridiculous. We should probably just avoid each other, and I'll start now by leaving you alone.

If you ever want help on how to run a successful web site, complete with customers, send me a PM.

That is probably best, I figure you more for a starter then a finisher, you make a better censor then a poster anyway, that way you can make sure that not many threads turn to the subject matter of betting horses, and why.

Talk sh!t, then run off while you call me a redboarder. It only shows that you, your website, and your forum here are all image and little substance. I doubt that I would be any more interested in your Wizard Of Oz techniques for selling tonic either. For me, the customers are the sideline.

I'll be standing right here, waiting for you to back up just one claim from behind your little curtain.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Okay, to try and change the subject a little bit....

Is it just me or does it seem like early speed and holding it is not making much of a difference at Del Mar? I have been reviewing result charts and it seems to me that a number of winners have either gotten off slow or have gotten off quick, faded back, and then come back to close it in the stretch (examples: #2 on 7/20 and #3 on 7/24)

From what I've read about the sport so far, I've heard that early speed and getting lead on the rail in sprints is often key to winning the race, at least on dirt tracks. On turf, I know it is another matter...

At last Hollywood meet, it seemed that the outside posts on sprints were more of an advantage than the rail. And the inside post at Del Mar for 6f is near dead..only 1 win in 24 starts.

Is this just a characteristic of the new artificial racing surfaces? Does Polytrack, Cushiontrack, et al take that speed/rail bias that you always hear so much about out of the races and make pace more important? Would it be advantageous to handicap polytrack sprints like a turf sprint?

I've only recently become interested in thoroughbred racing and I have primarily been playing the SoCal tracks. Since all CA tracks are now artificial, I am starting to wonder how much of what I have read/learned regarding speed/pace/track bias on dirt surfaces will hold up for artificial surfaces.

I am looking forward to checking out that book about artifical surfaces by Bill Finley but it has yet to be released.

Well, anyways, if you all got any input on this I'd love to hear it. Thanks.

Well I guess that CJ is too busy counting his money to give you a hand with this. So, if you don't mind considering the ravings of a lunatic madman, I'll give you my observations.

CJ can just delete the parts that he may find not worthy of your considerations.

The best approach to understanding the differences in surfaces might be to assume that no human really knows for sure, and if any humans do know, they would likely be horsemen. Horseplayers might do best to look to them for clues on what is actually happening. But, be advised, those clues can be a result of the particular horsemen's beliefs going in, you might get more meaningful information by sifting through that filter.

An understanding of how horses actually run has also got to be folded into any considerations of surface too, because the horseman is likely to plug the result of a tired horse into the surface first, and look at his conditioning methods and/or pace/distance decisions second. Just like a handicapper will do. On both sides, this activity can lead to horse being run according to invalid pre-concieved notions that may be applied to the surface. This is how myth is born.

We can see how this wheel goes around by considering that the horsemen at first thought poly was a more tiring surface, similar to the general thinking applied to turf. So by and large, the horses were galloped to the 1/8 pole and the calvary charge was on from there. This didn't give the handicappers any sound information, but they have a need to know something, along with a need to be right, so they rolled out the poly-crap/voodoo bandwagon pretty quickly. Without really finding whether poly is more or less tiring then dirt.

At the same time, track management noticed that the equal style of racing was allowing them to hang $100,000 supers on the infield board along with $10,000 P3's, and $40.00 winners. They already knew that having 3 equal horses in a race was a good handle producer, but now, they may have a way to make it 6 in a 12 horse field. There will be no turning back to dirt.

As time passed, human nature took over about the time that a horsemen decided that he didn't care whether poly was tiring or not, he wanted a check. So, he told his little man to go hell for leather from the gate with all of the giddyup his horse has got, and won.

This led to the horsemen that had discovered poly to be less tiring then dirt, racing against the horsemen that were holding on to the pre-concieved notion of it being tiring. While group A went early, and group B let them go, and tried to catch them late, the racing got back to normal, while management scrambled to get fields more equalized. The same management own dirt tracks too.

The handicapper, being used to working with old worn-out information, and is still two years behind in the learning curve. What is happening is that poly is bringing more equalization to horseracing in general as horsemen apply what they are learning from poly to the other two surfaces, and discovering that "biases" were more man made then anything else.

The inside horse has a natural advantage over the outside horse. Moreso, in a short race. How much advantage? As always, it depends on the abilities of the horses, regardless of the surface.

But, rather then study and adapt to the changes, many handicappers would rather the game stay in the state that they once understood to some degree. For myself, I welcome the equality that polytrack has brought to the game, because it can be duplicated at the dirt track too. GP, CD, and Saratoga show that to be true.

This spring at Keeneland, I mixed with mostly a college aged crowd, thirty-somethings that put their kids on their shoulders so that they could see the horses run. They weren't playing online poker, or buying lottery tickets, they were betting at Keeneland because they have as much chance to win as anybody else. No matter which horse they bet. Horse racing will be back to the glory that only it can achieve, because of this.

jdl

[PaceAdvantage]

Talk sh!t, then run off while you call me a redboarder. It only shows that you, your website, and your forum here are all image and little substance.This reminds me of the scene from Animal House, when Bluto starts talking about the Germans bombing Pearl Harbor....

[JustRalph]

That is probably best, I figure you more for a starter then a finisher, you make a better censor then a poster anyway, that way you can make sure that not many threads turn to the subject matter of betting horses, and why.

Talk sh!t, then run off while you call me a redboarder. It only shows that you, your website, and your forum here are all image and little substance. I doubt that I would be any more interested in your Wizard Of Oz techniques for selling tonic either. For me, the customers are the sideline.

I'll be standing right here, waiting for you to back up just one claim from behind your little curtain.

jdl

Wow, could you be more coarse? A little over the top maybe? I waited a while to see if maybe you might come back into the thread and maybe soften your words a little. I think you took this to a whole new level. Maybe you should take an opportunity to revise and extend your remarks.

[jonnielu]

Wow, could you be more coarse? A little over the top maybe? I waited a while to see if maybe you might come back into the thread and maybe soften your words a little. I think you took this to a whole new level. Maybe you should take an opportunity to revise and extend your remarks.

Why do you think so? Do you want to flesh that idea out a little bit?

jdl

[MarquisMark]

Thanks for the reply jonnie. That is quite helpful. I've been reading a lot of books on the sport that, at this point, it's all still bouncing around in my head and I'm trying to make sense of it all.


What is happening is that poly is bringing more equalization to horseracing in general as horsemen apply what they are learning from poly to the other two surfaces, and discovering that "biases" were more man made then anything else.

The inside horse has a natural advantage over the outside horse. Moreso, in a short race. How much advantage? As always, it depends on the abilities of the horses, regardless of the surface.


I brought up track bias because after reading Beyer on Speed, he seemed always seemed to fall back on a track bias, usually a fast or a dead rail, whenever a horses speed figure seemed to be uncharacteristically good or bad. According to him, you almost needed to be aware of any biases on all the tracks that you watch, although he had based most of his methods on dirt tracks. He even admitted that Beyers aren't quite as reliable on turf races.

And in my limited experience so far, I have found that Beyer figs are most useful for finding which horses in the field are capable of running a good, fast race. They're not something to swear by. I have had more luck by giving more weight to form and condition. In fact, it seems that many ML favorites are horses that have recently run a high Beyer.

So when it's all boiled down, the best horse usually wins. That's basically it, huh?

[JustRalph]

Why do you think so? Do you want to flesh that idea out a little bit?

jdl

Not really. It is what it is. My post says it all. I think you went overboard a little. I don't need to elaborate. I made my point. Just an observation. We could yak at each other for a couple days and it wouldn't change anything.

I like to go back to the community analogy sometimes. I think it applies most of the time. This place is like a neighborhood. We all know who the neighbors are. Or we think we do. Sometimes we all get a little bent out of shape or ticked over something the other neighbor does or says. I just don't think we have to get so personal while talking loudly over the hedge. It may seem like we all know each other pretty well sometimes, but in reality, we don't. I sometimes have to remind myself of that. I just thought I would remind you.

[WinterTriangle]

Maybe I can present another viewpoint.

I was one of the individuals who voted in the redboarding poll that it didn't bother me at all.

As a matter of fact, unlike most people, I'm completely uninterested in people's *picks* before a race. That's because I already have my own. :)

I'm more interested in what won decent AFTERWARDs. To me, hindsight is the greatest teacher, in life and in general. I will return to the PPs, and try and figure out what I *missed*.

There was a race at SAR the other day where I was just "stumped" as to the winner. I talked it out with somebody who won on the horse, and they explained to me how they arrived at that win.

This would have done me no good before the race, because I would not have believed it, if that makes any sense.

Posting a win after it won is proven. Posting picks before a race is just another opinion......and if it's just numbers, like 3-4-7-6 it's even more meaningless to me. I want to know WHY those picks were made.

After a race is often the most useful time to *re-handicap*.....at least, it is for me. At the track, I notice people just tear up their tickets and toss 'em. I actually take mine home and go back to the PPs and results to see what I did wrong. :)

[sammy the sage]

Why is this thread still alive???? :rolleyes:

The original poster has yet to post to POST a play BEFORE hand w/any reasoning to get ANY street credit..... :sleeping: :D

[jonnielu]

Thanks for the reply jonnie. That is quite helpful. I've been reading a lot of books on the sport that, at this point, it's all still bouncing around in my head and I'm trying to make sense of it all.



I brought up track bias because after reading Beyer on Speed, he seemed always seemed to fall back on a track bias, usually a fast or a dead rail, whenever a horses speed figure seemed to be uncharacteristically good or bad. According to him, you almost needed to be aware of any biases on all the tracks that you watch, although he had based most of his methods on dirt tracks. He even admitted that Beyers aren't quite as reliable on turf races.

And in my limited experience so far, I have found that Beyer figs are most useful for finding which horses in the field are capable of running a good, fast race. They're not something to swear by. I have had more luck by giving more weight to form and condition. In fact, it seems that many ML favorites are horses that have recently run a high Beyer.

So when it's all boiled down, the best horse usually wins. That's basically it, huh?

Beyer expresses time in a numerical format, he assumes that the track surface is what influences time the most.

Mordern racing is wrapped around a very long menu of wagering, any major track that can attract full fields will roll out that full menu.

That wagering menu is step 1 in handle building because the more variety that you have there, the more appeal you will have to the largest cross-section of the wagering public. It is also a draw for the new player.

The way to make this wheel turn is first, you want a full field, second, you want 3 or 4 best horses in every race. This is step 2 in handle building, and it will work naturally if you can field those contenders with regularity.

Handicappers don't seem to like it much, and my own opinion is that is only because this says to them that they must adapt, and people seldom welcome that kind of change when they are comfortable with something.

In the old days, the favorite was often measurably better then the others in a race. When there was some serious competition for that favorite, that horse may have been obviated with respect to several factors that may have been very subtle to the more un-informed and less-knowledgeable.

Today, the techniques of past performance handicapping might take you to 3 horses that you might see as relatively equal, and now the question is which factor or factors, if any, reliably separate them further? When, in the first place there are not usually large differences in horses.

At meetings like Keeneland and Saratoga, we have a great opportunity to observe these factors in action, and see the effect they have on results as the favorites go down a bit more frequently, and we might also bear witness to more 3 and 4 horse photos. With 3 or 4 completely different types of player, perhaps nosing one out in the same day.

Right now, the only ones that really like it are the ones that can bet 15 - 1 horses without that working on their heads as it may go up to 20 -1 by post time. Mostly, the newcomers that you want to send home with a $44.00 winner that they stumbled over because they recognized the jockey's name. Maybe they will come back with a couple of friends that play online poker and do it again.

The handicappers will kick and scream for awhile, and then they will realize that they must adapt to some changes and start asking themselves how they can go beyond the limits of past performance handicapping, and start discovering productive ways of doing it.

I believe that the predictable results lie in the execution of the abilities within the parameters of the distance. Much simpler then it sounds.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Maybe I can present another viewpoint.

I was one of the individuals who voted in the redboarding poll that it didn't bother me at all.

As a matter of fact, unlike most people, I'm completely uninterested in people's *picks* before a race. That's because I already have my own. :)

I'm more interested in what won decent AFTERWARDs. To me, hindsight is the greatest teacher, in life and in general. I will return to the PPs, and try and figure out what I *missed*.

There was a race at SAR the other day where I was just "stumped" as to the winner. I talked it out with somebody who won on the horse, and they explained to me how they arrived at that win.

This would have done me no good before the race, because I would not have believed it, if that makes any sense.

Posting a win after it won is proven. Posting picks before a race is just another opinion......and if it's just numbers, like 3-4-7-6 it's even more meaningless to me. I want to know WHY those picks were made.

After a race is often the most useful time to *re-handicap*.....at least, it is for me. At the track, I notice people just tear up their tickets and toss 'em. I actually take mine home and go back to the PPs and results to see what I did wrong. :)

This is the difference in someone seeking to learn, and someone seeking some free picks.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Not really. It is what it is. My post says it all. I think you went overboard a little. I don't need to elaborate. I made my point. Just an observation. We could yak at each other for a couple days and it wouldn't change anything.

I like to go back to the community analogy sometimes. I think it applies most of the time. This place is like a neighborhood. We all know who the neighbors are. Or we think we do. Sometimes we all get a little bent out of shape or ticked over something the other neighbor does or says. I just don't think we have to get so personal while talking loudly over the hedge. It may seem like we all know each other pretty well sometimes, but in reality, we don't. I sometimes have to remind myself of that. I just thought I would remind you.

I believe, that even within the spirit of community, if one neighbor wants to stand there and insult the other neighbor, the expectation that he may be able to do so without something coming back in his direction, may be a bit unrealistic.

And, in the real spirit of community, the onus is not just on one to get along with the others, it is on all.

jdl

[ryesteve]

I'm more interested in what won decent AFTERWARDs. To me, hindsight is the greatest teacher, in life and in general. I completely see your point, but after 4 pages of messages in this thread, what exactly have we learned about handicapping Del Mar?

[barn32]

I completely see your point, but after 4 pages of messages in this thread, what exactly have we learned about handicapping Del Mar?

It's the tides.

[ryesteve]

It's the tides.Yeah, I had a feeling that the full moon had a lot to do with all this... :D

[jonnielu]

I completely see your point, but after 4 pages of messages in this thread, what exactly have we learned about handicapping Del Mar?

That Poly and artificial is just playing with your head, and that the reliable and relevant factors are still at work at Delmar just as well as Saratoga, Belmont, Arlington, CD, and everywhere else. No voodoo, just evenly matched horses racing against each other.

jdl

[ryesteve]

reliable and relevant factors are still at work at Delmar
The public uses "reliable and relevant" factors, and yet the performance of favorites at DMR is abysmal. Something doesn't add up.

[HEY DUDE]

I love Del Mar. :jump: Its been good for me so far this year. I think what has made it good for me though is the fact that I only been in the game since 2004. The funky man made cushion surface is as new to me as it is to everyone else therefore equalizing the playing field for the handicappers. I didn't really have any dirt habits established. Made it easy for me to accept the syn surface. Don't recall were I read it at, however one of the things that has helped me is looking for horses who show good pedigree or past history of running on the grass. I read somewhere that grass horses should do good on the syn surface. Thats my .03 cents worth.


Hey Dude

[ManeMediaMogul]

That Poly and artificial is just playing with your head, and that the reliable and relevant factors are still at work at Delmar just as well as Saratoga, Belmont, Arlington, CD, and everywhere else. No voodoo, just evenly matched horses racing against each other.

jdl

Very nicely said.

[JeremyJet]

What's the favorites win percentage at Del Mar? I think it's at 22% right now.

JeremyJet

[A. Pineda]

Never enjoyed making horizontal wagers on a changing surface that could go from sloppy to muddy to good in the same day. Not to mention the scratches and short fields. TP lost eight days due to a frozen surface not too long ago (which was the genesis for the change there.) Will take the DM AWS anytime.

[ryesteve]

What's the favorites win percentage at Del Mar? I think it's at 22% right now.Yeah, that's what I have... with a -44% ROI, which would discount the "evenly matched" theory.

[JeremyJet]

Yeah, that's what I have... with a -44% ROI, which would discount the "evenly matched" theory.

I guess they're having record pick-6 carryovers for a reason. Maybe the pick-6 players would have an easier time if they employed "conventional handicapping techniques". :rolleyes:

JeremyJet

[JeremyJet]

What's the favorites win percentage at Del Mar? I think it's at 22% right now.

JeremyJet

As far as I can tell, the only other track to have a favorite win percentage under 30% is Woodbine [29%] ... another polytrack. All the other tracks around the country are well above 30% ... that would include Arlington Park [34%].

JeremyJet

[applebee]

What's the favorites win percentage at Del Mar? I think it's at 22% right now.

JeremyJet

I may be wrong but isnt that what we are looking for?

[njcurveball]

As far as I can tell, the only other track to have a favorite win percentage under 30% is Woodbine [29%] ... another polytrack. All the other tracks around the country are well above 30%

I would love to hear what it is at Evangeline.

[JeremyJet]

I would love to hear what it is at Evangeline.

The norm ... 34%.

JeremyJet

[Hank]

Strange that nobody has said a peep about the fact that last year at Del mar was what generated the weeping and nashing of teeth,NOT this meet lol.Anyone who played Delmar last meet profitably please speak up.MMM perhaps?

[jonnielu]

The public uses "reliable and relevant" factors, and yet the performance of favorites at DMR is abysmal. Something doesn't add up.

Equality has been the goal of organized racing since the beginning, it is what the scale of weights was designed to accomplish.

The reason that racing should still work to accomplish it is that everyone will know that in this house, anyone can win.

Racing has come closer in the past ten years. The past performances today are generally more varied then the horses are, in any given race. The favorite is somewhat more equal then he used to be.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Yeah, that's what I have... with a -44% ROI, which would discount the "evenly matched" theory.

When you have 2 - 3 horses that are relatively equal to the favorite, the favorite will likely do some extra losing.

jdl

[ryesteve]

When you have 2 - 3 horses that are relatively equal to the favorite, the favorite will likely do some extra losing.When the ROI of the favorites gets as low as -44%, that means the public, via its "conventional handicapping" is significantly overestimating the chances of the horses it's making the favorite. If they were betting the races as if 2 to 3 other horses were "equal" to the horse than ends up being the favorite, the favorites' ROI wouldn't be so low.


Equality has been the goal of organized racing since the beginning, it is what the scale of weights was designed to accomplish.

The reason that racing should still work to accomplish it is that everyone will know that in this house, anyone can win.

Racing has come closer in the past ten years. The past performances today are generally more varied then the horses are, in any given race. The favorite is somewhat more equal then he used to be..
Global statements like these would be relevant if we were wondering why ALL favorites are doing poorly, rather than only the ones at DMR

[JeremyJet]

Strange that nobody has said a peep about the fact that last year at Del mar was what generated the weeping and nashing of teeth,NOT this meet lol.Anyone who played Delmar last meet profitably please speak up.MMM perhaps?

I would like to know what the favorite win percentage was last year at Del Mar. Anyone know?

JeremyJet

[ManeMediaMogul]

Strange that nobody has said a peep about the fact that last year at Del mar was what generated the weeping and nashing of teeth,NOT this meet lol.Anyone who played Delmar last meet profitably please speak up.MMM perhaps?

Only went to Del Mar one day last season.

I spent most of my racing days at Saratoga.

All of us in my party made money that day. As I recall, Black Seventeen was a key play.

But this post was not about me or my winning day...although several responders tried to make it that way. It was to point out that basic handicapping skills apply to races for any breed, on any surface, at any distance, in any country.

I was thinking it might give a little hope to those who have been persuaded by certain members of this forum that handicapping at tracks with an artificial surface is just a crapshoot, so they should avoid participating at all cost.

The space program has detractors too, so maybe I'm just a crackpot who enjoys new technology. But I never could understand the "Why go to the moon? It's nothing but dust," mentality. Look at all the nifty things we have because we flew to the moon - Teflon, Velcro and Tang, just to name a few.

[MarquisMark]

After a race is often the most useful time to *re-handicap*.....at least, it is for me. At the track, I notice people just tear up their tickets and toss 'em. I actually take mine home and go back to the PPs and results to see what I did wrong.

I agree here. If I'm wrong, I like to look back and see if I missed something big.

For example, Race #6 at Del Mar on 7/30...did anyone catch that race or bet on it? I thought Dr Zaentz was the logical choice because he had some of the fastest final 1/4 fractions in the field. He did not look outclassed or anything either. But he went off at about 12 to 1.

For those of you who capped and watched this race, was Dr. Z. a rational choice? To me, a lot of unlikely horses ended up in the money, with the exception of the Earnednevergiven maybe.

I just wanted to know if I overlooked something big or if this was one of those crazy races that defied logic...

[jonnielu]

Only went to Del Mar one day last season.

Look at all the nifty things we have because we flew to the moon - Teflon, Velcro and Tang, just to name a few.

I like Tang.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I agree here. If I'm wrong, I like to look back and see if I missed something big.

For example, Race #6 at Del Mar on 7/30...did anyone catch that race or bet on it? I thought Dr Zaentz was the logical choice because he had some of the fastest final 1/4 fractions in the field. He did not look outclassed or anything either. But he went off at about 12 to 1.

For those of you who capped and watched this race, was Dr. Z. a rational choice? To me, a lot of unlikely horses ended up in the money, with the exception of the Earnednevergiven maybe.

I just wanted to know if I overlooked something big or if this was one of those crazy races that defied logic...

2 turns on the grass will typically (means not always) prefer the slower early. The Dr was enabled in his swift closing run last by an early crawl. A winner will need to execute with better balance. The Dr. would need to pick it up early here, likely at some expense to the late run. The winner showed a better balance coming in, while the favorite would appear to have little choice then to engage speed early and be a target.

My contenders for the PK3 were - 1,2,5,9, normally I take three on the basis of early speed - fast, middle, and slow. #2 fit the requirements of the distance/surface well, the last was well balanced. That was my slow contender.

jdl

jdl

jdl

[mylosh]

can someone if possible pass the del mar race class pars

also which races at del mar are the class equivalent to BM, GG, and the other cali tracks

thanks

[MarquisMark]

2 turns on the grass will typically (means not always) prefer the slower early. The Dr was enabled in his swift closing run last by an early crawl. A winner will need to execute with better balance. The Dr. would need to pick it up early here, likely at some expense to the late run. The winner showed a better balance coming in, while the favorite would appear to have little choice then to engage speed early and be a target.


Okay, I see what you mean.

Do you just compare fractional times to get a feel for the overall pace of PP races or do you use a more indepth method, like the Sartin one?

[jonnielu]

Okay, I see what you mean.

Do you just compare fractional times to get a feel for the overall pace of PP races or do you use a more indepth method, like the Sartin one?

Just my opinion, you have to be careful of the depth you get into, it can bury you quickly if you go too far. I use my own early speed rating, but any will usually do. You will get a better feel for the pace of today's race if you keep in mind that the pace of the last race was a product of that gathering and distance. Just as today's will be.

The execution last will be a known limit for some, and for others, the last may have been a toe in the water. For those, your question as a bettor, is which ones can pick it up early without penalty to the late run ability.

It is the old class/speed question that became harder to answer shortly after several methods were developed to quantify it. The reason for that is because it is just too easy for a stable to muddy anyone's equation with simple time-honored methods of measuring horses, such as visually.

A mediocre start, followed by an earnest run, can answer positively several questions for a trainer as to what distance/class/surface the horse can be competitive. An extra desirable bonus, is that it serves to obscure the answers from you, the bettor.

jdl