long term capital plays 04-27-2008 [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

formula_2002

07-27-2008, 08:59 AM

Must be favorite, non odds-on and <2-1 odds, and wps.
Long term, ps seem to be the way to bet

track race pgno name ml post date
MNR 9 1 DYNAMIC VICT 2 10:20 7/27/2008
MNR 9 1 DYNAMIC VICT 2 10:20 7/27/2008
MNR 9 1 DYNAMIC VICT 2 10:20 7/27/2008
MNR 9 1 DYNAMIC VICT 2 10:20 7/27/2008
SAR 1 1A YELT 1.6 1:00 7/27/2008
SAR 1 1A YELT 1.6 1:00 7/27/2008
SAR 1 1A YELT 1.6 1:00 7/27/2008
SAR 1 1A YELT 1.6 1:00 7/27/2008
SAR 1 1A YELT 1.6 1:00 7/27/2008
WO 2 3 VICS PICK 3 1:37 7/27/2008
WO 2 3 VICS PICK 3 1:37 7/27/2008
WO 2 3 VICS PICK 3 1:37 7/27/2008
WO 2 3 VICS PICK 3 1:37 7/27/2008
MTH 3 4 SWEET YAMILA 1.6 1:49 7/27/2008
MTH 3 4 SWEET YAMILA 1.6 1:49 7/27/2008
MTH 3 4 SWEET YAMILA 1.6 1:49 7/27/2008
MTH 3 4 SWEET YAMILA 1.6 1:49 7/27/2008
FL 3 3 PARIS ADVENT 2 2:04 7/27/2008
FL 3 3 PARIS ADVENT 2 2:04 7/27/2008
WO 3 3 FUHREVER DAN 2 2:04 7/27/2008
FL 3 3 PARIS ADVENT 2 2:04 7/27/2008
WO 3 3 FUHREVER DAN 2 2:04 7/27/2008
WO 3 3 FUHREVER DAN 2 2:04 7/27/2008
FL 3 3 PARIS ADVENT 2 2:04 7/27/2008
FL 3 3 PARIS ADVENT 2 2:04 7/27/2008
WO 3 3 FUHREVER DAN 2 2:04 7/27/2008
FL 4 4 BEAUTIFUL RI 4 2:31 7/27/2008
FL 4 4 BEAUTIFUL RI 4 2:31 7/27/2008
FL 4 4 BEAUTIFUL RI 4 2:31 7/27/2008
FL 4 4 BEAUTIFUL RI 4 2:31 7/27/2008
FL 4 4 BEAUTIFUL RI 4 2:31 7/27/2008
CRC 5 2 MONEYMAKING 8 2:34 7/27/2008
CRC 5 2 MONEYMAKING 8 2:34 7/27/2008
CRC 5 2 MONEYMAKING 8 2:34 7/27/2008
CRC 5 2 MONEYMAKING 8 2:34 7/27/2008
CT 5 1 LOVE TOUR 1.4 2:36 7/27/2008
CT 5 1 LOVE TOUR 1.4 2:36 7/27/2008
CT 5 1 LOVE TOUR 1.4 2:36 7/27/2008
CT 5 1 LOVE TOUR 1.4 2:36 7/27/2008
CT 5 1 LOVE TOUR 1.4 2:36 7/27/2008
CT 5 1 LOVE TOUR 1.4 2:36 7/27/2008
ELP 3 8 QUITE A FLIG 3.5 2:38 7/27/2008
ELP 3 8 QUITE A FLIG 3.5 2:38 7/27/2008
ELP 3 8 QUITE A FLIG 3.5 2:38 7/27/2008
ELP 3 8 QUITE A FLIG 3.5 2:38 7/27/2008
ELP 3 8 QUITE A FLIG 3.5 2:38 7/27/2008
CBY 2 10 SWEET OLE SO 4 2:57 7/27/2008
CBY 2 10 SWEET OLE SO 4 2:57 7/27/2008
CBY 2 10 SWEET OLE SO 4 2:57 7/27/2008
CBY 2 10 SWEET OLE SO 4 2:57 7/27/2008
CBY 2 10 SWEET OLE SO 4 2:57 7/27/2008
ELP 4 9 PRIMETIME PR 3.5 3:05 7/27/2008
ELP 4 9 PRIMETIME PR 3.5 3:05 7/27/2008
ELP 4 9 PRIMETIME PR 3.5 3:05 7/27/2008
ELP 4 9 PRIMETIME PR 3.5 3:05 7/27/2008
CT 8 11 BEARSLITTLE 4.5 3:48 7/27/2008
CT 8 11 BEARSLITTLE 4.5 3:48 7/27/2008
CT 8 11 BEARSLITTLE 4.5 3:48 7/27/2008
CT 8 11 BEARSLITTLE 4.5 3:48 7/27/2008
CT 8 11 BEARSLITTLE 4.5 3:48 7/27/2008
RD 9 3 ROAN RIVER D 4.5 3:53 7/27/2008
RD 9 3 ROAN RIVER D 4.5 3:53 7/27/2008
RD 9 3 ROAN RIVER D 4.5 3:53 7/27/2008
RD 9 3 ROAN RIVER D 4.5 3:53 7/27/2008
WO 7 5 TRUE METROPO 1.8 4:04 7/27/2008
WO 7 5 TRUE METROPO 1.8 4:04 7/27/2008
WO 7 4 SUMMER DOLDR 4 4:04 7/27/2008
WO 7 4 SUMMER DOLDR 4 4:04 7/27/2008
WO 7 4 SUMMER DOLDR 4 4:04 7/27/2008
WO 7 5 TRUE METROPO 1.8 4:04 7/27/2008
WO 7 5 TRUE METROPO 1.8 4:04 7/27/2008
WO 7 4 SUMMER DOLDR 4 4:04 7/27/2008
RD 11 9 YELP 6 4:35 7/27/2008
RD 11 9 YELP 6 4:35 7/27/2008
RD 11 9 YELP 6 4:35 7/27/2008
RD 11 9 YELP 6 4:35 7/27/2008
SR 3 3 VADERATOR 0.6 4:45 7/27/2008
SR 3 3 VADERATOR 0.6 4:45 7/27/2008
SR 3 3 VADERATOR 0.6 4:45 7/27/2008
SR 3 3 VADERATOR 0.6 4:45 7/27/2008
CRC 10 3 REALLY ROCKI 1.6 4:54 7/27/2008
CRC 10 3 REALLY ROCKI 1.6 4:54 7/27/2008
CRC 10 3 REALLY ROCKI 1.6 4:54 7/27/2008
CRC 10 3 REALLY ROCKI 1.6 4:54 7/27/2008
CRC 10 3 REALLY ROCKI 1.6 4:54 7/27/2008
SAR 9 2 TIZBIG 8 5:20 7/27/2008
SAR 9 2 TIZBIG 8 5:20 7/27/2008
SAR 9 2 TIZBIG 8 5:20 7/27/2008
SAR 9 2 TIZBIG 8 5:20 7/27/2008
CBY 10 3 LB SET EM UP 4 6:35 7/27/2008
CBY 10 3 LB SET EM UP 4 6:35 7/27/2008
CBY 10 3 LB SET EM UP 4 6:35 7/27/2008
CBY 10 3 LB SET EM UP 4 6:35 7/27/2008
CBY 10 3 LB SET EM UP 4 6:35 7/27/2008
MNR 4 4 SMARMY 0.6 8:15 7/27/2008
MNR 4 4 SMARMY 0.6 8:15 7/27/2008
MNR 4 4 SMARMY 0.6 8:15 7/27/2008
MNR 4 4 SMARMY 0.6 8:15 7/27/2008
MNR 4 4 SMARMY 0.6 8:15 7/27/2008
MNR 5 7 LANDRY 3 8:40 7/27/2008
MNR 5 7 LANDRY 3 8:40 7/27/2008
MNR 5 7 LANDRY 3 8:40 7/27/2008
MNR 5 7 LANDRY 3 8:40 7/27/2008
EMD 10 4 MRS. TIZ 3 9:39 7/27/2008
EMD 10 4 MRS. TIZ 3 9:39 7/27/2008
EMD 10 4 MRS. TIZ 3 9:39 7/27/2008
EMD 10 4 MRS. TIZ 3 9:39 7/27/2008
EMD 10 4 MRS. TIZ 3 9:39 7/27/2008
MNR 8 4 LITTLE BOBBE 0.6 9:55 7/27/2008
MNR 8 4 LITTLE BOBBE 0.6 9:55 7/27/2008
MNR 8 4 LITTLE BOBBE 0.6 9:55 7/27/2008
MNR 8 4 LITTLE BOBBE 0.6 9:55 7/27/2008
MNR 8 4 LITTLE BOBBE 0.6 9:55 7/27/2008
MNR 8 4 LITTLE BOBBE 0.6 9:55 7/27/2008

formula_2002

07-27-2008, 01:06 PM

Saratoga - Race 1
# Win Place Show
8 $43.00 $17.80 $6.40
7 . $13.20 $6.00
1 . . $2.20

formula_2002

07-27-2008, 01:52 PM

Monmouth Park - Race 3
# Win Place Show
4 $4.20 $2.40 $2.10

formula_2002

07-27-2008, 02:18 PM

Woodbine Thoroughbred - Race 3
# Win Place Show 5 $9.90 $4.20 $2.60
2 . $3.80 $2.90
3 . . $2.50

formula_2002

07-27-2008, 03:12 PM

Canterbury - Race 2
# Win Place Show

10 $4.00 $2.80 $2.40

formula_2002

07-27-2008, 04:15 PM

woodbine 7th
# Win Place Show
2 $23.20 $7.40 $5.10
5 . $2.60 $2.30

formula_2002

07-27-2008, 04:16 PM

River Downs - Race 9
# Win Place Show
1 $10.40 $4.80 $3.20
5 . $7.40 $3.20
3 . . $2.80

formula_2002

07-27-2008, 05:27 PM

Santa Rosa - Race 3
# Win Place Show
5 $63.40 $10.80 $4.60
3 . $2.10 $2.10

so far, 7 of 7 hit the board

formula_2002

07-28-2008, 05:43 AM

the show bet returned a 1.18 roi.
the place bet returned a .77 roi.

ps bet returned a .97 roi.
good enough for a, 5 to 7 % rebate, profit and, a win in every race...

formula_2002

07-29-2008, 06:12 AM

FINALS (single play analysis)
correction
9 RAN, RETURNING;
$15.8 FOR PLACE
$21.40 FOR SHOW.
OVERALL ROI=1.03
weighted plays;
43 plays RETURNING;
$80.2 FOR PLACE
$102.3 FOR SHOW.
OVERALL ROI=1.06