Taking a walk thru the Jardin

[funkydj]

Sloppy start for the Spa and same looms tomorrow. We had a profitable day with a win on Jardin in the Schuylerville. Thought the race would be contentious and made our betting line for 10/1 on Jardin. Filly went off 12/1 and paid a beautiful $ 26.40.

It was a day to be patient and pass on some races. We liked Star Player who won the first. But we touted this as a grass only play. We stayed out of the first race despite the horse winning on the slop. Have to check to see the wet breeding on this one as obviously, it did well.

We will give you our day 2 analysis later 2nite.

Peace
Joe Kelley
www.winatthehorses.com
(http://www.winatthehorses.com)

[menifee]

Joe,

I looked at your picks from yesterday. How are you calculating your profit margin?

By my count, you lost money for the day. I did not count the races where you stated grass only. I'm just wondering if I'm missing something.


RACE 1- Grass only plays. # 4 ROMP AND # 8 STAR PLAYER. Both horses can close with a flurry. Prado and Coa are the riders and you can rest assured they will be right in the mix.

PLAY: Win bets on the # 4 and 8 with odds of 6/1 and better. Exacta box 4, 8 with # 6

*****

RACE 3- # 3 ICETATE. Steve Asmussen brings this colt in from Churchill. 4 yo started late and only has 3 races on his resume. And each race seems to have some traffic or running trouble. But Bridgmohan has won in the slop with him and we are condident that he can be right there or just off the pace.

PLAY: Win bet on # 3 Icetate with an exacta box of # 3 and 1.

******
RACE 5- NY State bred 2 yo MSW. Let's get a price on some debuters.

# 6 STORM HOPE. Barclay Tagg doesn't play and will have this colt ready to run. One of our favorite young jocks Alan Garcia takes the mount. 5/1 or higher is what we will settle for.

# 7 SCOOTY THE PRO. Scott Schwartz is very underrated in these state-bred races and will be even further under the radar with this bigger stage. Castellano rides and that is a huge plus. Don't be fooled. Play this baby at 5/1 or higher.

PLAY: Win bets on # 6 and 7. Exacta box 6, 7 with the 1.
****

RACE 8 (Grass Only). Linda Rice has 3 horses entered and all of them have a shot. Rather than make heads or tails of who is the best one, we look to the outside where # 10 POSTED piques our interest with Prado/Bush leading the way. Tactical speed and we like the outside post here. Get 5/1 odds or better.

DA PLAY: Win bet on # 10. Exacta box # 10 with the 3 Rice horses.

*****
RACE 9- Is there a future Kentucky Oaks winner amongst this bunch. We will see. Like several in this race and will demand great odds for our win bets.

# 2 MANI BHAVAN- 5/1 or better
# 6 OUCHY NIGHT- 10/1 or better
# 7 MINE ALL MINE 10/1 or better
# 8 BOOM TOWN SALLY 10/1 or better
# 10 GIRLFRIENDONTHESIDE 10/1 or better
# 11 JARDIN 10/1 . 10/1 or better. The "other" Asmussen horse. Early speed and in honor of my Quebecois wife whose birthday is today, I have to play Jardin.

Very contentious race.
*****

RACE 10- The nightcap and hopefully you are enjoying a fruitful afternoon. Chop Chop rides # 5 RED HOT DAWN. Arroyo wins at a 35 % clip at claim repeaters. Safe to say he has a handle on that move. Early speed gives this one a great shot for win and exacta.

PLAY: Win bet on # 5 and exacta box # 5 with 1, 8.