Bad rail on the chute

[andicap]

I read in Simulcast Weekly this week about how horses racing at 7F and 1 mile in post positions 1-2 out of chutes often are at huge disadvantages. I had always suspected this was the case, but the stats were amazing. Something like 0 wins at
Aqueduct last year at 7f and 4 wins at 1 mile (out of 72 races.)

I can think of a few reasons why this is the case:
1. horses near the rail need to race for the lead or get buried on the rail so they have to spend more energy in the first fraction than they can afford.

That wouldn't explain why a true "E" horse with a first fraction advantage over the field wouldn't have an easier time of it from the ground-saving rail.

2. natural track bias in the chutes themselves?????? bad rails???

Are there that many track biases out there? I doubt it.

???????????? any others?
Is this true at other tracks with chutes around 1 turn as well??

[Fastracehorse]

At GP for example, when the rail horse comes out of the chute, their is vast open space.

This open space un-nerves rail horses when they come from an enclosed gate to an open space - just like when babies get closterphobic on the rail and go backwards.

An outside post is an advantage as the inside horses initially are blocked from the shock of open area and hence are more comfortable.

Once these inside horses hit the rail they are more at ease.

fffastt

[karlskorner]

As you know from past posts, I am a "tractor watcher" as long as the tractors go counter-clockwise I am not concerned, however, when they go clockwise, you can kiss the variant/bias or whatever you are recording goodbye. I get to the track early enough to see what is being done before the races start and make note of what is taking place between races.

I am only speaking of GP for now, but I assume other tracks have basically the same maintenance. There are 4 tractors at GP, the inside or rail tractor which has the heaviest equipment, being 2 sets of harrows, a set of rollers and again 2 sets of harrows, the next inside tractor has 2 sets of harrows, rollers and 1 set of harrows, the 3rd tractor just has 2 sets of harrows and the ouside tractor has just one light set of harrows. The problem arises when the "heavy" tractor takes the outside path and the "light" tractor runs the rail. They are "changing" the track.

After reading your post, I thought about what I was looking at today and never really paid much attention to. The gap for the tractors to leave the track is at the end of the 7F chute, as they leave the main track, the "heavy" tractor goes toward the outside hedge and the "light" tractor works the shute rail, causing the sand to be shifted toward the rail.

At both GP and CRC, when the tractors work the main track, everything is pushed towards the center and outer rail, when they come to the 7F shute this causes a pile up. As I have stated before, when the #1 & #2 horse out of the shute and hit that area they run into a "brick wall". Several years ago they put up a temporary rail pulled out from the shute rail that reaches almost across the main track. My opinion, you have to "really" like the horse out of the #1 & #2 hole coming out of the shute

[Tom]

Now there is something you don't read about in the handicapping books. That was a nice post, Karl - thanks.
Fast - that makes sense too. You gotta remeber that these are living, thinking, beings we are betting on. And they don' t know how to read <G>

[karlskorner]

A lot of posters think I am against "bookwriters", which I really am not, my complaint, they all cover the same subjects, over and over again, what happens "on and to the track" often is forgotten or ignored, which in my opinion effects variants, bias and pars etc.

Run 2 water trucks around the track twice, followed by 3 or 4 tractors doing their "thing" and it's a new track, that never has been "run on" before. What happens to the variant or bias if you don't take this into consideration or better yet, how do you factor this change into a daily variant if after the 4th race there was "heavy" maintenance to the track.