Bubbles
07-22-2008, 12:19 PM
RACE #1
This is a fine way to start out the meet. It's a one-mile starter allowance on the grass, and it's WIDE open. MILLENIUM JET, STORMY MIRAGE, and DANCING TIN MAN are the chalks for a reason, and all three should run well if the rain holds off. For longshot lookers, THE SHAUGHRAUN at 8-1 made up seven lengths in the final half-mile at Belmont last out. If he can get position from his outside post, he'll be flying late.
OFF-THE-TURF PICKS: Coach Butts singled in doubles and pick three's, with Love Everybody and Star Player behind him in exotics.
RACE #2
Ah, the first 2YO race of the meet. You can make a case for a lot of these horses, but I like the entry of PIOUS DAVID and ZENSATIONAL as well as COGNITO on top, followed by PRINCE TETON. In terms of a possible wet track, there's not much to go off of, but FLYING PRIVATE does have a stellar work in the mud at Churchill Downs as well as a great mud pedigree.
RACE #3
Bounce alert! ACCREDIT ran second to Desert Key on Belmont Stakes day on a souped-up track, so that effort is nowhere near as good as his 8/5 odds would indicate. He does move up on a wet track, but for the time being, I'm going with API MOHKAT (coming back to the dirt off a failed turf experiment), GOLDEN AGE (out since May, but Calder shippers always run faster everywhere else), and HANDSOME REWARD (has early speed and cuts back in distance).
RACE #4
The dreaded 3-and-up maiden for NY-breds going long on the turf. This actually is a decent field by those standards, though, and it makes for a good betting race. On grass, I'll go with PEGASIAN (the rare regally-bred New Yorker; by FuPeg out of a Nijinsky II mare, and he improved a lot in his first turf start), BURNISHED COPPER (bothered badly in the stretch last out but finished ahead of Pegasian by a neck), and the long shot SMARTERALEX (loses seven pounds of weight off his last effort and should be running well late). Also look out for FRA LIPPO, who has been off for a year but is in the more-than-capable hands of Clement, adds blinkers, and has been working well.
OFF-THE-TURF PICKS: Theartofcompromise wheeled up and down in exactas with Miracle Causeway and Slick Wheelie.
RACE #5
Another 2YO race, this one for NY-breds. Two firsters, VINNIE VAN GO and TEAPOT DOME, look well-meant based on recent works and trainer percentages, and I'll use them with the ML favorite FIDDLERS AFLEET, who ran well in his debut. Also, if also-eligible PEGASUS TOMMY D. draws in, look out; he sports a recent bullet at Belmont and should be ready to go.
RACE #6
I don't do turf sprints. If moved to the dirt, JAZZ NATION may be my best bet of the day, though. He ran second in a $250,000 stakes race in his only start on natural dirt, nosing out a pretty talented horse named Lantana Mob who's won several stakes since. I'll put him on top of MTO horse NEW MEMBER and 10-1 shot CROWNED GENERAL.
RACE #7
Still on the turf but going longer, and we get our third state-bred race of the day, which is a bit much. ADMIRAL BIRD crossed the wire first last out but was DQ'd, and is a pretty honest horse, finishing in the money in 10 of 15 lifetime starts. He's not a clean-cut choice, but he's one I'm using along with BETHPAGE BLACK and THUNDER MINISTER.
OFF-THE-TURF PICKS: If they hit the main track, Successful Affair and Building New Era are head and shoulders above the rest.
RACE #8
Turf sprint (for NY-breds...AGAIN), and I only bet these if they go off the grass. JOHNIE BYE NIGHT may be best remembered as the horse who ran second to Funny Cide in that one's last career start. He's finished in the top two in 11 of 17 starts, and he's worth a long look if Mother Nature decides rear her head. Both MTO horses, GOLD AND ROSES and STORMIN NORMANDY, also look tough, but at 15-1 odds, give me Johnie Bye Night.
RACE #9
OCEAN COLORS is the 5/2 favorite after a big maiden win at Churchill, but I'm going to try to beat her. MANI BHAVAN ships in from Delaware, which is almost as slow as Calder. She broke her maiden by over nine lengths and ran the last furlong in just over twelve seconds, which tells me she should stretch out to six well enough. I'll also put COLLEGIATE, who broke her maiden under a fairly-easy ride, on top as well, with Ocean Colors and longshot RENDA underneath.
RACE #10
Spooky Mulder, a possible illegitimate child of the kin who've produced Evening Attire, is back at the Spa at ten years old. He's sharp as a tack, too, having won his last two starts coming in. He's got some work to do, but ultimately, I put him on top of other contenders RUMSPRINGA, ACCLIMATE, and FARNO. Not much changes in the mud, but 12-1 shot RED HOT DAWN does move up thanks to his last two, which were both solid off-track efforts.
This is a fine way to start out the meet. It's a one-mile starter allowance on the grass, and it's WIDE open. MILLENIUM JET, STORMY MIRAGE, and DANCING TIN MAN are the chalks for a reason, and all three should run well if the rain holds off. For longshot lookers, THE SHAUGHRAUN at 8-1 made up seven lengths in the final half-mile at Belmont last out. If he can get position from his outside post, he'll be flying late.
OFF-THE-TURF PICKS: Coach Butts singled in doubles and pick three's, with Love Everybody and Star Player behind him in exotics.
RACE #2
Ah, the first 2YO race of the meet. You can make a case for a lot of these horses, but I like the entry of PIOUS DAVID and ZENSATIONAL as well as COGNITO on top, followed by PRINCE TETON. In terms of a possible wet track, there's not much to go off of, but FLYING PRIVATE does have a stellar work in the mud at Churchill Downs as well as a great mud pedigree.
RACE #3
Bounce alert! ACCREDIT ran second to Desert Key on Belmont Stakes day on a souped-up track, so that effort is nowhere near as good as his 8/5 odds would indicate. He does move up on a wet track, but for the time being, I'm going with API MOHKAT (coming back to the dirt off a failed turf experiment), GOLDEN AGE (out since May, but Calder shippers always run faster everywhere else), and HANDSOME REWARD (has early speed and cuts back in distance).
RACE #4
The dreaded 3-and-up maiden for NY-breds going long on the turf. This actually is a decent field by those standards, though, and it makes for a good betting race. On grass, I'll go with PEGASIAN (the rare regally-bred New Yorker; by FuPeg out of a Nijinsky II mare, and he improved a lot in his first turf start), BURNISHED COPPER (bothered badly in the stretch last out but finished ahead of Pegasian by a neck), and the long shot SMARTERALEX (loses seven pounds of weight off his last effort and should be running well late). Also look out for FRA LIPPO, who has been off for a year but is in the more-than-capable hands of Clement, adds blinkers, and has been working well.
OFF-THE-TURF PICKS: Theartofcompromise wheeled up and down in exactas with Miracle Causeway and Slick Wheelie.
RACE #5
Another 2YO race, this one for NY-breds. Two firsters, VINNIE VAN GO and TEAPOT DOME, look well-meant based on recent works and trainer percentages, and I'll use them with the ML favorite FIDDLERS AFLEET, who ran well in his debut. Also, if also-eligible PEGASUS TOMMY D. draws in, look out; he sports a recent bullet at Belmont and should be ready to go.
RACE #6
I don't do turf sprints. If moved to the dirt, JAZZ NATION may be my best bet of the day, though. He ran second in a $250,000 stakes race in his only start on natural dirt, nosing out a pretty talented horse named Lantana Mob who's won several stakes since. I'll put him on top of MTO horse NEW MEMBER and 10-1 shot CROWNED GENERAL.
RACE #7
Still on the turf but going longer, and we get our third state-bred race of the day, which is a bit much. ADMIRAL BIRD crossed the wire first last out but was DQ'd, and is a pretty honest horse, finishing in the money in 10 of 15 lifetime starts. He's not a clean-cut choice, but he's one I'm using along with BETHPAGE BLACK and THUNDER MINISTER.
OFF-THE-TURF PICKS: If they hit the main track, Successful Affair and Building New Era are head and shoulders above the rest.
RACE #8
Turf sprint (for NY-breds...AGAIN), and I only bet these if they go off the grass. JOHNIE BYE NIGHT may be best remembered as the horse who ran second to Funny Cide in that one's last career start. He's finished in the top two in 11 of 17 starts, and he's worth a long look if Mother Nature decides rear her head. Both MTO horses, GOLD AND ROSES and STORMIN NORMANDY, also look tough, but at 15-1 odds, give me Johnie Bye Night.
RACE #9
OCEAN COLORS is the 5/2 favorite after a big maiden win at Churchill, but I'm going to try to beat her. MANI BHAVAN ships in from Delaware, which is almost as slow as Calder. She broke her maiden by over nine lengths and ran the last furlong in just over twelve seconds, which tells me she should stretch out to six well enough. I'll also put COLLEGIATE, who broke her maiden under a fairly-easy ride, on top as well, with Ocean Colors and longshot RENDA underneath.
RACE #10
Spooky Mulder, a possible illegitimate child of the kin who've produced Evening Attire, is back at the Spa at ten years old. He's sharp as a tack, too, having won his last two starts coming in. He's got some work to do, but ultimately, I put him on top of other contenders RUMSPRINGA, ACCLIMATE, and FARNO. Not much changes in the mud, but 12-1 shot RED HOT DAWN does move up thanks to his last two, which were both solid off-track efforts.