Tote inefficiencies

[kenwoodallpromos]

Which is the best book or website to study tote pool inefficiency betting? Thanks!

[gregrph]

I really like "Dr. Z's Beat The Racetrack" by William T. Ziemba and Donald B. Hausch. It takes some reading and re-reading but I enjoy the math. I believe the book is out of print and commands a high price. The theory makes sense if you agree with the basic assumptions as to whether or not the publics odds truly reflect the actual chances of a horse winning a race. I programmed a Casio calculator to do the calculations. It was slow inputing the numbers in from the toteboard then running the programs to get a bet/no bet decision and then a wager amount. I've used it only at Saratoga although it could be used anywhere that you can see the tote board and the pools for win/place/show for each horse and the totals. I took it to Pompano Harness one night and couldn't use it because they didn't show the whole w/p/s/total breakdows for each horse.

How did I do? Well, let's put it this way...it worked to find good place/show payoffs but I wasn't disciplined (sp?) enough to keep it my only betting method or at least keep track of my Dr. Z bets versus other bets. My other bets usually weren't that great! I had a lot of fun with it, I put in a lot of time programming it and setting up the variables and debugging.
Greg

Which is the best book or website to study tote pool inefficiency betting? Thanks!

[facorsig]

Beware of Silky Sullivan!

There are a number of books out there and to some extent the "efficiency" is an assumption in one pool extrapolated to another pool which is different and assumed to be inefficient. The assumption is that the win pool is efficient for the race you are playing. I played Dr. Z for quite some time on Cal Expo harness races. Beyond the late odds swings and the need to be fast-fingered, low odds horses are a mind blower. You might expect to get $2.60 and could receive $3.00 or $2.20. It just didn't seem worth the disappointment.

My recommendation is the daily double and some of Mitchell's work focussing on multi-race exotics.

Fred

[Tom Barrister]

Z's method doesn't really work anymore, because the place and show pools aren't big enough. The book was written during an era in which there were relatively few exotic bets available (and thus many races only featured win place and show betting).

Also, bots supposedly exist that auto-exploit almost all tote inefficiencies.

In short, the idea has been beaten to death.

[RaceBookJoe]

I find it very tough to "exploit" the ineffiencies of the pools nowaways. My favorite book on the tote board is "The Talking Tote" by Lou Holloway written around 1957 i think. Not sure you can still find it, i am fortunate enough to have an original Then and now, my favorite way to use tote readings was more as another clue to the puzzle as opposed to trying to exploit the pool per se. I still glance at the pools ( just a long time habit ) and see if I can detect 'smart money'.....especially on maidens/1st starts etc. It is not the holy grail but it is still a tool in my handicapping tool chest. If you find anything worthwhile, please post it. thanks rbj

[Irish Boy]

Stafford Wong opens his book "Betting Cheap Claimers" with a short digression on the imperfections of the Ziemba system. The assumption of efficiency in the win pool is flawed (thank goodness!) and late money makes the system unimplementable even if the system were efficient. If your interested, Wong offers some improvements on the system in his book, which can be read in e-book form here: http://www.bj21.com/advantageplay/horseracing/Betting_Cheap_Claimers.pdf

Still, with ADWs and last-second wagering, I regard place and show inefficiencies to be exploitable only in extreme bridge-jumper situations. Otherwise, you are chasing nickels with dollars within a system with flawed assumptions and insufficient information.

[njcurveball]

Still, with ADWs and last-second wagering, I regard place and show inefficiencies to be exploitable only in extreme bridge-jumper situations. Otherwise, you are chasing nickels with dollars within a system with flawed assumptions and insufficient information.

You make a good point here and the thing that needs to be mentiond as well is that there is not consistent information throughout the wagering facilities.

One single flash 30 seconds too fast or too slow during the betting can make or break your profit margin.

I did very well with the Dr. Z equations with some handicapping and bet pattern analysis. Unfortunately that was almost 20 years ago and at the time ALL information came from watching the ACTUAL track tote.

Depending on who you wager with and what TV feed you have, your information could be 10,20,30, perhaps even 60 seconds behind "real time".

Since there still are "snipers" in these pools, there is a good chance the overlay that was seen with 1 minute to post will be bet the heaviest in the last 60 seconds.

Give Dr. Z credit as he took a game that looked to be random and uncertain and applied some very specific and detailed Math that actually worked in real time. :ThmbUp:

[kenwoodallpromos]

Thanks for your input all!
I now mostly look for to low odds on favorites for the type of race, n eed to expand my tote-odds thiking!

[Tom Barrister]

Well, odds-on favorites do better to place and show than to win, as far as ROI goes.

The other flaw with Z's system is as was pointed out: much of today's money comes in at the last minute through simulcasting---that didn't exist (at least not on the scale it does now) back when the book was written.

[bigmack]

If you play with any level of regularity you find yourself juggling no shortage of info., come post time.

An exercise I've found useful over the years is to overview the tote shortly before post, clear my mind, and ask the question: How can I make money from this spread of dough?

May sound as corny as Kansas but I've found real insight & value in doing it faithfully.