july 19 race 8 deleware

[lamboguy]

watch this replay, 1 horse leaves gate @2-1, gets 3 length lead, drops to 6/5
5 horse leaves gate 1-5, finishes race 4-5.

i callled deleware park, spoke to mutual department, and then to the stewards. asked them if they see anything wrong with price changes. they both said it happens all the time. then they say "what do you want me to do about it?"

i tell them their on track handle is $62k on a sat. do you think the changing prices have anything to do about it?

if we all stopped playing, maybe someone would get the message. there are alot of people out there sick of being screwed

thanks for letting me post here, i know i am very controversial

[njcurveball]

watch this replay, 1 horse leaves gate @2-1, gets 3 length lead, drops to 6/5
5 horse leaves gate 1-5, finishes race 4-5.



You left out a few facts. The horse that won wound up with $7,813 in the win pool. He was the 8-5 morning line favorite and 2 for 2 this year. The horse that "went up" to 4-5 was 2-1 in the morning line and still wound up the favorite.

Now if you are faced with the decision on WHICH horse to bet with 1 minute to post, would you bet the favorite at 2-1 or the second choice at 1-5? Hmmmm!

Now if we also look into your "conspiracy theory let's say $3,500 of the $7,813 came in after the gate opened. The purse of the race is $50,000! The winner gets $30,000! Cashing the bet would win them less then $4,000!

I am always amazed when people do not think before they yell "conspiracy".

Next they say, WELL they made a killing OVERSEAS, to which I reply than why the odds drop ON TRACK? That is just plain stupid to kill your own price OVERSEAS.

So seriously you think someone "made a killing" of less than $4,000 in a race where first place gets a check for $30,000? Do you think the 2nd choice was deliberately stiffed as well?

I pulled up the replay and the horse that won was 2-1 and the other horse was 1-2. After a 1/4 mile was run, the winner dropped to 6-5, at this point there was still 3 furlongs left in the race.

But again I ask you, if you are faced with betting the 2nd choice at 1-2 or the favorite at 2-1, where would YOUR late money go?

[lamboguy]

i looked at that stuff too, but how come the daily double with the 5 was only paying $18, while the double with the 1 was paying $40.60.


maybe there was only a conspiracy on the daily double pool?

is that what you are suggesting?

or do you work for the mutual department at deleware race track?


i know the answer, its just simple, the people that bet the double pools are alot more stupid than the people that bet the win money?

because i like you, i am going to let you in for what i saved for last. the total amount of money on the 5 horse actuallly went down from the flash before the race to when the horses crossed the finish line!

[lamboguy]

the jist of what i am trying to say is that some people are able to access the wagering pools after the race starts. i was doing it myself back in 1988. i was able to bet the break 15 seconds into the race, and if i didn't like my choice, i had another 15 seconds to cancel my purchase. i made a 40-1 shot in belmont pay $12.00. after that the new york post wrote about it and NYRA made the venue that we were all betting at close the betting machines 2 minutes before the race went off. so i was out of business. i was at sulfolk downs and there were about 100 other people doing the same thing on the self teller machines. at that time there was a large brunt of the handle coming from sulfolk. we could punch in $250 tickets and get repeats.

does this stuff happen today? i don't know, because i sit home. i just see large fluctuations in the odds, and i wonder how the horse with the lead usually goes down a notch or 2. then i hear about guys that cold conk $100 horses on breeders cup pick 6 tickets, and i do a dagio dance.

let me tell you something, i was a thief in the past, so these things make me suspicious. now i have to be on top behavior.

i love this game, and only want to improve it. even if by some stretch of the imagination, no one gets their bets in after the race, wouldn't it be better in the long run not to see odds changing so fast in front of peoples eyes?

[njcurveball]

i looked at that stuff too, but how come the daily double with the 5 was only paying $18, while the double with the 1 was paying $40.60.


maybe there was only a conspiracy on the daily double pool?



So they got a $40 double home, but screwed up and played the 5 and lost?

Missed your whole point there?

The win pool is $22,000 so if I had a ticket on a horse at 1-2 for a couple thousand I probably would have canceled it as well.

I checked the other replays and didn't see any other drops like this on horses taking the lead.

But you obviously are an expert, so who am I let reality stand in your way.

[njcurveball]

i wonder how the horse with the lead usually goes down a notch or 2.

I watched the replays and only saw this happen once. And it made perfect sense, since the late money was not going to take 1-2 on the second choice when they could get 2-1 on the favorite.

Certainly you have to have some better examples than this. :bang:

[lamboguy]

mr perloff just gave you another example on nationwide television

[Imriledup]

You left out a few facts. The horse that won wound up with $7,813 in the win pool. He was the 8-5 morning line favorite and 2 for 2 this year. The horse that "went up" to 4-5 was 2-1 in the morning line and still wound up the favorite.

Now if you are faced with the decision on WHICH horse to bet with 1 minute to post, would you bet the favorite at 2-1 or the second choice at 1-5? Hmmmm!

Now if we also look into your "conspiracy theory let's say $3,500 of the $7,813 came in after the gate opened. The purse of the race is $50,000! The winner gets $30,000! Cashing the bet would win them less then $4,000!

I am always amazed when people do not think before they yell "conspiracy".

Next they say, WELL they made a killing OVERSEAS, to which I reply than why the odds drop ON TRACK? That is just plain stupid to kill your own price OVERSEAS.

So seriously you think someone "made a killing" of less than $4,000 in a race where first place gets a check for $30,000? Do you think the 2nd choice was deliberately stiffed as well?

I pulled up the replay and the horse that won was 2-1 and the other horse was 1-2. After a 1/4 mile was run, the winner dropped to 6-5, at this point there was still 3 furlongs left in the race.

But again I ask you, if you are faced with betting the 2nd choice at 1-2 or the favorite at 2-1, where would YOUR late money go?

Your arguments are logical. But. I would love for you to show me one example of a horse who goes UP in price and wins. Just one. Show me the 1-5 shot that goes up to 4-5 and wins. Seems like for every horse who goes up in price, there are 9 out of 10 that come down (sometimes drastically).

If the public is right only 33% of the time, how come 90% of the time the 'late money' is correct? You would think that only 33% of the time the winning horse would go down in price and the other 66% of the time the public would be wrong and the winning horse would go UP in the last flash.

I might be wrong about my 90%, but i can't remember too many instances where that 'late late money' was wrong.

[cj]

Your arguments are logical. But. I would love for you to show me one example of a horse who goes UP in price and wins. Just one. Show me the 1-5 shot that goes up to 4-5 and wins. Seems like for every horse who goes up in price, there are 9 out of 10 that come down (sometimes drastically).

If the public is right only 33% of the time, how come 90% of the time the 'late money' is correct? You would think that only 33% of the time the winning horse would go down in price and the other 66% of the time the public would be wrong and the winning horse would go UP in the last flash.

I might be wrong about my 90%, but i can't remember too many instances where that 'late late money' was wrong.

It is all about perception. In the end, the tracks don't seem to care about the perception, they just care about sucking in every last dollar. Do they honestly think someone getting shut out on a race is going to bank that cash forever without betting it?

Horses do go up in price. The longer the price, the more likely they will go up. It rarely ever happens with horses that take the early lead though.

[The Hawk]

Horses do go up in price. The longer the price, the more likely they will go up. It rarely ever happens with horses that take the early lead though.

I, for one, have NEVER seen it. Apparently, no one else has, either. Obviously, something's up, has been for a while.

[lamboguy]

when the horse break bad out of the gate, you see it all the time. you are just not paying close attention. and its not limited to just the win pool.

[The Hawk]

when the horse break bad out of the gate, you see it all the time. you are just not paying close attention. and its not limited to just the win pool.

You misunderstood what I was saying. CJ said it rarely ever happens with horses that take the early lead. I agreed, saying I've bever seen it. Horses that break bad aren't on the lead.

You bring up a good point, though. How much of this is going on in the pools we can't see as odds on the screen? If I was doing it I would probably start with the place pool, so the odds drop wouldn't be on the screen for all to see, and then I'd progress to exactas.