Handicapping Del Mar

[joelouis]

Is the track playing fair, it looks like the rail is the place to be. What do u all think or is it to early to tell

[mylosh]

still too early

on turf, speed, but it looks like all the morning line favs hit today, so whoever is doing them is pretty good

all winners today seemed pretty reasonable so I still don't quite understand what everyone is saying about del mar being a crazy track, but then again its only been two days

[stuball]

I read somewhere that they are using more water on the track to speed it up....first day several new track records.
So the track may be at the whim of the maintainance
super or track management...just wish I could get a hold of the daily track maintainance reports...how deep --how much water-when etc..

Stuball
:bang: :bang:

[Tom]

Check Crist's blog - first day raw Beyers are about 38 points higher than last year day one, similar classes.

[classhandicapper]

Check Crist's blog - first day raw Beyers are about 38 points higher than last year day one, similar classes.

I've been having a problem with Crist's blog the last few days. When I click on it, nothing happens.

[wegoosewe]

i have been reading the charts for del mar, noticed alot of them said (off the rail). Then looking at the post stats only 1 horse from the post 1 spot has won. I know its early but i am going to keep taking a look into it and see what happens. Other then that i think its been fare.

[pktruckdriver]

Well Day 3 brought a few crazy ones today, but that is what Del Mar is known for.

I hit a full pick 4 yesterday and got 100 bucks, pretty sad, but may be the only 100.00 pick 4 of the whole meet, we'll see.

Seems with the new track is being loved so well, we will see exagerated speed fig's, like Tom said, about 40 points higher, man that is a lot, also makes a horse think he can do anything. Still can't see where they like the new track yet, it seems so far everywhere works OK. Kudos to track maker.

Well time will give the Bias's to us and hopefully it will include the track watering schedule too, boy it does make a difference, knowing.


Till then
Good Luck

[mylosh]

I know i'm still a newbie, but from the last 3 days I still don't see how Del Mar is different from any other tracks. All the bets that hit today, even the longshots were in reason. Here's some thoughts from a rook if anyone cares:

Race 3
I had the 6 to win (shouldve placed with too with the 19.00 pl payout) simply based on the fact that she cost 300 K to breed and sold for 90K. I thought the 2 would be better off in a race that would be a mile or longer, really regreting not putting even $2 on this 50-1. I really liked the fact that she had a bunch of works at 6f and 7f and thought maybe that the trainer was prepping her for a longer distance (please note that I didn't watch this race as I was doing shots)

Race 4
I'll admit, my sole reason for picking the winner was the name, "Lauren C". Anyone notice "The Hills" reference? Well and she had the most consistent Alw performances amongst the bunch

Race 5
I don't understand why every expert had the 7 as the key horse. Because it dropped from G3? But it finished in 2nd last and isn't a G3 for 2Y0 pretty much the same thing as a 100K Md. I learned this from the video game gallop racer. Oh well I just went with the favorite dad here and I guess I got lucky. My win pick was based on luck, but the main point in this race was that I was just shocked that everyone had the 7 as the KH. Did the experts just do this on purpose so that everyone overbets on this horse?

Race 8
Just simple class handicapping. Can't understand why the odds were so high

anyways I think I just got lucky, there is still like 40 more days for me to lose monies

cheers

my main point is, I just do see how Del Mar is any more difficult or easier than every other track

[mylosh]

sorry above last sentence should read "I just don't see..."

bad grammah'

Anyways I also wanted to mention did anyone see the ownership group for the winner in the 7th race. They were all hot. Man gotta love socal

[Yorker]

Race 3
I had the 6 to win (shouldve placed with too with the 19.00 pl payout) simply based on the fact that she cost 300 K to breed and sold for 90K.

Wow, picking horses that sell for 30% of their stud fee is one of the craziest angles I've heard of. The stud fee on Distorted Humor was only $20k for this one anyway, as it didn't jump to $300k until after the Funny Cide 3yo season

[wegoosewe]

monday morning quarterbacking

[Robert Fischer]

track looks pretty fair, at least not as heavy relative to last year...

So far, I want to be in 2nd on the rail in sprints, and I wouldn't mind having a strong closer coming on the outside in routes. Still too early to know.