So.Cal H/Capping Techniques, basically SA and Hol

[pktruckdriver]

I was wandering in the archives for a few days looking and found things that seem to confuse me too much, not too hard to do.

What I was looking for may be common knowledge some place, but I figured to just ask, as this board has been very revealing at times, great people here.

Now to actually concentrate on certain tracks, which I am going to attempt to do for the fall/winter/spring meets to come in So. Cal, excluding Del Mar, too short.

Information gathering is an absolute requirement here and I was hoping to maybe be pointed in the right direction, for some of it, (which most likely will be in the DRF somewhere), and what is not there, I was hoping that the board could enlighten me as to what to look for and where to possible find it too.

This sounds crazier as write more in this post, but basically I"m looking for any insight that might help me to handicap Santa Anita and Hollywood, better that's all. With the new surface too. What hold's true best out there, but asking this seems to be like asking for the Col. Sanders secret recipe, and if so well then I won't get much, but if not then maybe I will get the ingredients, but not the exact way to blend them, which I must learn, right?

Well thanks for any input you give.

[pktruckdriver]

Good lord

What am I asking for here, I don't know, do you?


Maybe some books that do well with So.Cal, maybe some techniques, like Beyers/Moss/ and others, there best efforts out here, or maybe special trends that seem to produce out here? Who knows exactly what I'm looking for, but I am looking to find and study it to see if it will help me win more.

Stuff like best way to h/c claimers on poly/turf, great maidens h/c idea's, like breeding/trainer stats, etc...

Then all the Bias's that are there to stuidy too, my god this get complicated don't it?


There I think that was better.

Thanks

[cj]

Not that this will help clear things up, but Santa Anita is bringing in yet another surface for the meet. I'm sure it will be turf like just like the other synthetics, but they all seem to have their own idiosyncrasies.

[ezpace]

I've handicapped the CA. circuit a long time but since all the surface changes

I kept a very small ROI together but it was WORK. I READ A LOT OF charts

and watch a lot of tape on Msw'S ALW'S,AND STAKES.. Turf is my fav. but my

roi improved a little on cushion track year over year. IF IF IF they get the roid and dope

problem taken care of ,,the circuit should keep improving. ....@ Delmar...first ten racing

days ... work/over that surface.much preferred ***

[JustRalph]

Hollywood. Race Shape is HUGE! It is not like it isn't huge in every race....at every track.............but if you can nail down race shape at HOL .......you are way ahead.

[pktruckdriver]

Well thanks Gentlemen

It seem that the turf courses at both tracks will be the same though, right? So all the old bias's should be the same old stuff, right?

Cj, how would you deal with new surfaces, use old data, basically on the horses, until new data is established, or use old poly track data, and guess a little? I

It would seem that in this scenario, that the best way to begin learning about the new surface and who is taking to it, would be to use a morning clocker service, no? I wonder how many of these outfits there would be, I know of one, that I would or could use, what do you suggest?

Race shape, is that the close brethren to pace shape?
I will look into this Race Shape thing as it is not something I have seen or studied yet, something new is always intriguing, at least to me. As is Ability, yep that too.

Thanks for all the quick repsonses

[JustRalph]

Race shape, is that the close brethren to pace shape?


the same ............ you can't have a positive ROI without knowing it very well. It is the one thing that put me over the top. I thought I knew it pretty well until I joined this board..............and found out what it really means and got some help from several here. Btw, after you learn it for dirt.......try it for Turf......... :lol: there are subtle differences..........

[plainolebill]

The turf courses at SA and Hol are different. SA is a 7f oval with a long chute down a hill and crossing the main track. The sprints and anything over 9F come down the hill, the 9F races start on the main track. SA generally runs fewer distances than Hol, no 8.5F for instance.

Hollywood's turf course is almost 1 1/16 and has a chute for 9F and 10F races; 12F races start on the backstretch. They run 8F and 8.5F races which shouldn't be lumped together: the run to the first turn in 8F races is short and speed is something I look for, especially with a jock who can nurse them along. I like the mix at Hol better.

Sprinters don't necessarily carry their form from one track to the other. And when they move to Del Mar, well you hope someone has claimed your turf sprinters. :D DMR runs just a few 5F turf sprints where late runners have a big disadvantage. On the engine all the way.

[KMS]

As an aside, I love to watch SA turf races. I wish more tracks had quirky features like that downhill chute.

[kitts]

Last year I beat only three tracks-HOL, AP and DMR where I 'capped Synthetic races as dirt. I'm just sayin'.............

[cj]

Last year I beat only three tracks-HOL, AP and DMR where I 'capped Synthetic races as dirt. I'm just sayin'.............

If you lost at other tracks, maybe that means your dirt capping methodology is a bit off. :confused::confused::confused:

[Tom]

I think at Del Mar, horses need a better foundation than they do on typical dirt tracks. Dist will carry speed farther than it will at the Surf'nTurf track. Horsese need to be fitter. I would pay more attention to recent action, works, etc, as well as success on synthetics or grass.

[pic6vic]

PK

You do not state ifyou like playing pic 3's or pic 4's. handicapping can be different for these types of bets as you do not have to single. Also you must be more diversed. There are numerous "aids" available. One you know as we have discussed is National Turf workout reports. I am biased towards this report, but I cannot do without. Well worth the amount it cost. There are numerous ways to use not just picking the horses that work well. I have been using since they began. This will help immensely in playing any vertical wagers.

[pktruckdriver]

Again thanks


I feel workout reports seem to be a requirement.

Now I have some big tools to work with, but i am trying make sure no pieces to this puzzle are left out, to help me succeed , where most fail.

Now, yes it may be true, I am pick 3, mostly pick4 playing, and trying to do so, under 50.00, actually under 25.00 a ticket, maybe 1-3 tickets, if that. Now in this way, I've been basically on 1st-3rd fav's, so never the really big payout for me, yet. That is where I need to find, not guess, when and where the bigger paying horses will come from, and be able to have them when they do, not always of course, but once in awhile, and thru plenty of hard work , from me and a few others to, such as the clockers service, and keeping up with the most current bias too, no matter what they may be, I must find them and use them correctly to succeed, am I right or wrong here, please??


And again the board , even you Tom, have been very helpful and insightful to me, thanks, really.

[skate]

Form baby, Form.

Dito for toms post.

But but but, after viewing many posters here at PA, the factor most ignored are Odds.

Because of this disregard, it opens your window.

[DeanT]

Anyone have any thoughts on Del Mar? I read in the ATM that they expect things to "speed up" this year.

Thoughts? Throw out last year's data and just start fresh perhaps?

[JustRalph]

seems like every article I read about a "nice horse" going to Del Mar, the trainers all say "only if they get the surface right"

That should be a red flag...............

[pktruckdriver]

Form baby, Form.

Dito for toms post.

But but but, after viewing many posters here at PA, the factor most ignored are Odds.

Because of this disregard, it opens your window


Skate

Please a little more info, form = ability ?

Help this old trucker out, please, just a little bit more info in "Forest Gump" style. That way I may understand it better, thanks.

[juanepstein]

Not that this will help clear things up, but Santa Anita is bringing in yet another surface for the meet. I'm sure it will be turf like just like the other synthetics, but they all seem to have their own idiosyncrasies.

they are replacing the asphalt base to the pro-ride base.

theyve been running pro ride on the asphalt base since early february.


http://www.prorideracing.com/

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

I paid for the workout reports and had friends also buy the workout report for southern cal. But all of us would bet some of the A and B+ horses and then not bet others. None of us made any money. Many of the high rated horses did not win and others were just favorites. When there was a high odds horse each of us had no confidence to bet it. I spent hundreds of dollars and did not even make my money back.

But it is a good service. They do have some great info. Andy does a great job. But it is still hard to make the money. Occasionally a high payoff pick 4 or pick 6 would come in with the great info and I would of, could of , and should of, played the workout info.

But the truth is that for each winner the workout report gives you they also give you two or three losers.

Good luck

Here's to fast horses and big mutuals

[Turfday]

The workout report isn't made to be a CRUTCH which apparently you and your group were using it as. It's made to be a supplement to your own handicapping.

You always have to keep your imagination and consider all the other handicapping factors. I've heard the same thing from people. They think just by looking at the workout report that they can throw out everything else that is important. That it's the gospel and that horses will run to their workouts. Well, some do and some don't. That's the game. That's the way it is.

Unfortunately, workouts are strictly subjective and unfortunately some horses don't train well and run out of their minds. Some work great and are cowards at race time (morning glorys).

There are often instances when I don't regard a good or bad workout because no matter how hard you stretch it, all of the other handicapping factors are just as important.

And if they are not being considered because of a great workout or a poor one, you are on your way to the poor house.

[airford1]

Not that this will help clear things up, but Santa Anita is bringing in yet another surface for the meet. I'm sure it will be turf like just like the other synthetics, but they all seem to have their own idiosyncrasies.Just too add another twist, Hollywood park will close in the near future, so how much work can you put into resurching trends at Santa Anita (witch are none with a new track being put in again) and Hollywood closing. You can tread lightly for the first month at Oaktree. Switch to turf handicapping only and find the fastest closing runner. That is always a good way to be close.