Man O' War Pace

[JeremyJet]

I'm curious how experianced pace handicappers would evaluate the result of the Man O' War. The pace scenerio wasn't what you would usually find in a 11f turf race.

Based on the Beyer scale, I have the race going in 151-127-108 [4f, 8f, Fin]. That would mean that CURLIN ran 96-108-105.

JeremyJet

[Robert Fischer]

What did Red Rocks get for 3/4ths? about 112 or 1:13?

[cj]

I haven't done variants yet, and I only do one pace call. For 11f, it is the 1m call.

The raw figures I have are 152 pace for the leader, 143 pace for Red Rocks, and 137 raw.

If I assume I give the same final of 105 that you do, the figures would look like this:

Race
130-105

Red Rocks
111-105

Curlin
105-102

Better Talk Now
103-101

Sudan
130-100

It looks to me like either Curlin just isn't a top horse on grass, or he doesn't like going that far. Despite what slewis said in another post, this is a possibility.

[RichieP]

I haven't done variants yet, and I only do one pace call. For 11f, it is the 1m call.

The raw figures I have are 152 pace for the leader, 143 pace for Red Rocks, and 137 raw.

If I assume I give the same final of 105 that you do, the figures would look like this:

Race
130-105

Red Rocks
111-105

Curlin
105-102

Better Talk Now
103-101

Sudan
130-100

It looks to me like either Curlin just isn't a top horse on grass, or he doesn't like going that far. Despite what slewis said in another post, this is a possibility.

Sudan ran a monster race watching the race and looking at your figs

[JeremyJet]

I haven't done variants yet, and I only do one pace call. For 11f, it is the 1m call.

The raw figures I have are 152 pace for the leader, 143 pace for Red Rocks, and 137 raw.

If I assume I give the same final of 105 that you do, the figures would look like this:

Race
130-105

Red Rocks
111-105

Curlin
105-102

Better Talk Now
103-101

Sudan
130-100

It looks to me like either Curlin just isn't a top horse on grass, or he doesn't like going that far. Despite what slewis said in another post, this is a possibility.


CJ,

Beyer gave the winner a 108 BSF. The 105 Beyer I alluded to earlier was attributed to CURLIN. And BTW, I got that wrong. CURLIN gets a 104 based on the winner getting a 108. I failed to account for this being a turf race.

I noticed we're very close on our numbers, CJ. Here's my numbers for the race.

RAW [4f, 8f, Fin]
===
174-149-131


ADJ [4f, 8f, Fin]
===
151-127-108


So, from a pace perspective, how do you handle a horse like SUDAN? Should his overall performance ne upgraded because he was part of that early pace?

JeremyJet

[cj]

So, from a pace perspective, how do you handle a horse like SUDAN? Should his overall performance ne upgraded because he was part of that early pace?

JeremyJet

That is a good question. It really depends on if you think the horse ran off on his own, or if the jockey rode the race like a pinhead. I tend to think, in this case, it was the latter.

[cj]

CJ,

Beyer gave the winner a 108 BSF. The 105 Beyer I alluded to earlier was attributed to CURLIN. And BTW, I got that wrong. CURLIN gets a 104 based on the winner getting a 108. I failed to account for this being a turf race.



One thing I do is use the same Beaten Lengths chart that I do on dirt, for a variety of reasons. One of them is that when the pace is fast, it seems silly to punish horses that lose by penalizing them more for each beaten length.

[JeremyJet]

One thing I do is use the same Beaten Lengths chart that I do on dirt, for a variety of reasons. One of them is that when the pace is fast, it seems silly to punish horses that lose by penalizing them more for each beaten length.

Very good point. I thought doing that due to the fast pace.

JeremyJet

[46zilzal]

Sudan predictably was a pace victim........This one had not shown the average closing ability of an animal on that surface at that distance.

[cj]

Sudan predictably was a pace victim........This one had not shown the average closing ability of an animal on that surface at that distance.

Yes, I'm sure you were able to predict he would go 22 and 3/5 for the opening quarter in a 1 3/8 race.

[46zilzal]

Yes, I'm sure you were able to predict he would go 22 and 3/5 for the opening quarter in a 1 3/8 race.
The second call was the crux of that evaluation, as the first call at that distance was a non-factor.

[Tom]

It certainly was a factor to the two who ran it.

[46zilzal]

It certainly was a factor to the two who ran it.
And perfectly predictable pre-race as stated elsewhere.

[JustRalph]

It was so predictable that Tom Durkin called it a "suicide mission" and carried on about in the early part of his race call..........I am sure everybody thought Durkin was nuts, Huh?

I am sure everybody watching looked at each other in the stands and said
" What the hell is wrong with Durkin? This was so predictable? " :lol:

[cj]

And perfectly predictable pre-race as stated elsewhere.

You predicted a 22.3 1st Q? You'll have to show me that post.

[Robert Fischer]

blazing 1st quarter fraction , and regular old fast to 3/4ths, mile

Interesting look at internal or initial fractions and their effects...

Sudan looks like he could win a big race - IF he gets an easy lead and especially with any type of advantage like a quick first turn or chute. If there is other pace, and a decent field, I am not so crazy about him. I would like to see his regular jock travel with him or get a specialist like Dominguez if he has to travel (obviously couldn't have with Better Talk Now entered)

[46zilzal]

It was so predictable that Tom Durkin called it a "suicide mission" and carried on about in the early part of his race call..........I am sure everybody thought Durkin was nuts, Huh?


Durkin did not have the software that told me of that prediction either.

[plainolebill]

In the spirit of avoiding "what the F am I wasting my time for this" moments of unnecessary tedium as often as I can - I'm looking for a browser script plugin written in Python that will advance the scrollbar 15 lines whenever it encounters the string "46zilzal".



(Paraphrasing Ed Harrison)

[46zilzal]

Don't agree with it, don't read it...simple as that. It pissed off another in another group when I stated that this one (Sudan) would spit the bit mid-race or at the mile marker at the latest, and, that is what this one did.

[Robert Fischer]

Don't agree with it, don't read it...simple as that. It pissed off another in another group when I stated that this one (Sudan) would spit the bit mid-race or at the mile marker at the latest, and, that is what this one did.

You called it, but you only get 4 redboard points when a 13-1 shot 5th choice doesn't win and finishes 4th.

Play Again.

[JustRalph]

In the spirit of avoiding "what the F am I wasting my time for this" moments of unnecessary tedium as often as I can - I'm looking for a browser script plugin written in Python that will advance the scrollbar 15 lines whenever it encounters the string "46zilzal".
(Paraphrasing Ed Harrison)


:lol: :lol: :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

It pissed off another in another group when I stated that this one (Sudan) would spit the bit mid-race or at the mile marker at the latest, and, that is what this one did.Mile marker at the latest? Try again.

[RichieP]

Mile marker at the latest? Try again.

Exactly. Here is the comment from the charts on Sudan. Looks like he had the lead til a furlong out. That after fighting for the lead in a 22.3 first fraction.

Any semblance of a normal 11f pace and Sudan bitch slaps the field Curlin and all.

[Tom]

Jim Quinn once remarked that "class laughs at pace."
I asked Doc Sartin what he thought about that once at a seminar and he replied, "Class has to catch pace first.":D

[46zilzal]

Any semblance of a normal 11f pace and Sudan bitch slaps the field Curlin and all.
That language is gutter talk and beneath you.

At the other end of that pace scenario was the "too late" closer listed as message 44 at the reference below. Energy distribution and pace predict the same things.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/...3498#post553498

Curlin should get the next step under his belt before they continue or hold back on Paris in October.

[cj]

That language is gutter talk and beneath you.

At the other end of that pace scenario was the "too late" closer listed as message 44 at the reference below. Energy distribution and pace predict the same things.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/...3498#post553498

Curlin should get the next step under his belt before they continue or hold back on Paris in October.

Nice tactic, change the subject when proven wrong.

[Cratos]

Exactly. Here is the comment from the charts on Sudan. Looks like he had the lead til a furlong out. That after fighting for the lead in a 22.3 first fraction.

Any semblance of a normal 11f pace and Sudan bitch slaps the field Curlin and all.

I disagree, because the Sudan hot pace took Albarado out of his normal move with Curlin and a more realistic pace or if Sudan has faltered earlier in the race during the 1-3/8 mile Man O’War; and if either of those things would have happened, it might have brought the race back to Curlin and Albarado would had an easier judgment call to make about when to move his horse.

[Charlie D]

Tandems Richie :) usualy turn out same way, don't they???

Longchamp 14th July 2006


1st Rail Link (subsequent Arc Winner)
2nd Red Rocks
3rd Sudan
4th Grand Courier

[Charlie D]

Curlin should get the next step under his belt before they continue or hold back on Paris in October.

Connections want to forget about 12f in Paris and go for Irish or English Champion Stakes over 10f.

Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain, Monmarte are all of superior abilty to Red Rocks and they will make Curlin look second rate in France because 12f is their optimum distance, whereas Curlin's is 10f

[46zilzal]

Nice tactic, change the subject when proven wrong.
No subject is still the same: pace Pre-analysis said one would fold up, and it did. Pace said the second was too far back: he was.

[racefinder2]

On paper, my first thought was 'some one could steal this thing'. I suppose both those pace horses thought so, too. In retrospect, that pace set up made it virtually impossible for Curlin to win. Red Rocks just got position in the pocket behind those two and basically drafted to the front when they came back late. THat kind of trip for that quality horse is even better than an easy lead. I couldnt predict him at all, like a lot of these good Euro grass horses, they race off layoffs or bad races and then pop up and win. Maybe the blinkers helped. Curlin finishing 2nd was an excellent effort for a 1st try on the Turf. I keep thinking Better Talk Now is a member of the Over the Hill Gang but he keeps running well regardless.

[classhandicapper]

No subject is still the same: pace Pre-analysis said one would fold up, and it did. Pace said the second was too far back: he was.

I don't want to get into a debate about the specifics of this race, but IMO in a more general way there is sometimes a difference between being right and being right for the wrong reasons. I think that's point some people are trying to make from another direction.

[juanepstein]

turf debut- man o war
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdDE0EaLe88

[cj]

I don't want to get into a debate about the specifics of this race, but IMO in a more general way there is sometimes a difference between being right and being right for the wrong reasons. I think that's point some people are trying to make from another direction.

Exactly. A lot of people tossed Curlin from the Derby last year because he wasn't seasoned enough to win. Many tossed Sakhee from the BC Classic in 2001, thinking he would not handle dirt. Well, neither horse won, but I don't think anyone could argue those opinions were "right".

[Tom]

One of Randy Giles pace tools is the pace comfort zone at the second call.
Curlin's is 2 lengths.

He has been further back than 2 lengths three times,and lost two of them.