More on Pace handicapping

[mrroyboy]

Hi Guys
I'm still working on pace methods for harness racing. If a horse has a pace advantage and other handicapping factors he should be a great bet.
What I have found so far is at Meadowlands the last halfs of the horses recent races are good predictors. Better horses simply come home faster. But what I want to do is quantify this with numbers and incorporate early fractions as well. But you can't just take first half and last half and add them because that only gives you final time.
As always, your opinions would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks

[Tom]

Try this....I have been palying around with it.

Come up with a speed rating for a half - I used 55 flat.

Use the pace of the race first half and average it with the pace of horse seceond half.

Say Race A goes 95 - 95 and horse A closes in 98 95+98/2 = 96.5
Say race B goes 90 - 98 and horse B closes in 100 90+100/2 = 95.0

A gets a better rating because he paced against the faster half.

I'm really not sure this is where I want it to be yet, but I am also looking at averaging both horse paces and forgeting race pace, or average horse paces and race first half together.....still playing around with it.

[mrroyboy]

I use 55 as a speed rating too. That fits very well at Meadowlands. I will try your method. I think you are on the right track.

[toetoe]

It's about the trip, too, gentlemen. Frigzample, your pace play may get a nice slow trip to the 3/4, only to lose to the "first under" horse he has been covering for the entire trip.

Try to figure who will get these three trips (professional driving required):

1) first under behind good cover;

2) first over behind good cover;

3) leading through slow fractions (very hard to foresee with confidence).

Then determine whether these lucky devils are worthy talentwise. Of course, a good standardbred capable of a decent strategic burst can usually make his own trip, especially from favorable postage. Stamp him a contender. :bang:

In race 6 tonight, Martha Maxine looks yummy because of her versatility, and now she's getting post 5, the best of all. It's almost unfair, as she wins from anywhere. Only bad cover or some other misfortune will keep her out of the money.

[mrroyboy]

Good advice

By first under I guess you mean a pocket trip? If we can combine numbers with trips we will really have something!!!

[toetoe]

Yes. The bug in the ointment is that an even effort after an apparently perfect trip may actually be a no-shot excusable run, due to bad cover. See how easy it is ? :D

[toetoe]

Oops. :blush: . The second line should say, " ... SECOND over ..." Bless you for understanding anyway.

[mrroyboy]

Thank you

[Tom]

Good point TT....be careful about rating sucked along horses. Got to find the ones in shape, then seperate them with numbers.

[Tom]

Another idea I just started looking at is to add the horse's final time and last fraction together. The first time I tried it, I caught three out of 5, so now I'm mentally obligated to keep looking, although I am sure it was a fluke.....more work!

[RaceBookJoe]

Another idea I just started looking at is to add the horse's final time and last fraction together. The first time I tried it, I caught three out of 5, so now I'm mentally obligated to keep looking, although I am sure it was a fluke.....more work!

Maybe, maybe not. Tom, have you ever done any checking on using the final half instead of the final fraction? I use this sometimes on turf races for t-breds. Maybe one of the database guys can find something. rbj

[mrroyboy]

Thanks guys

Please keep posting your ideas. I am experimenting with many things so I will try to find some good stuff.
One of the things I wonder about is combining ratings. Like adding 1/2 to last half or first qtr lst qtr etc . I think we may be distorting the value by adding them together in any way
Take an extreme example. A horse always goes out for the lead, sets very fast fractions but never gets in the money. If you combined his early speed rating with his late speed rating he might still have a high number. The reality is he has no chance to win but the early speed rating puts him in the mix.
A better way may be to rank each rating separately and look for horses that rank first or second in more than one. That horse may have a pace edge.
What do you guys think?

[Sinner369]

Have you ever try Bob Pandolfo's Diamond system? His system gaves you several ratings for Pace, Speed , Kick, total............it works quite successfully......depending on the track you are playing........you have to recognize the pattern............isn't this what you are trying to do?



sinner

[Bennie]

An old method I used when I played harness years ago , don't remember from where but it could have been Pandy or Bergstein, was to break the race into 3 halfs. Start to first half, first quarter to 3/4, and half to finish. Find the 2 halfs where the horse was "used" and add them together. The horse with the best 2 halfs was the key horse. I also used to add 1/5 of a second to each 2 posts, from the 1 out. @ post 1-2 the time stands, posts 3-4 add 1/5 of a second, posts 5-6 add 2/5 of a second and so on. I don't play harness any more except for Meadowlands pace and Hambo day but on occassion do a race or two for a friend when one of his horses runs at Yonkers. It still seems to find the contenders on a regular basis.

[Tom]

Sounds like Al Bernstein?

[mrroyboy]

Yes

Pandy's stuff is good.Right now I am having fun tinkeringwith my figures but I will probably get Pandy's Diamond sytems eventually.

[Ray2000]

You guys are getting close to my computer algorithm for speed ratings.:)

Adjust all times for Track Speed Rating, Daily Variant, Starting Post (1st trailer is post 1-1/2, 2nd trailer 2-1/2 etc), driver's ability to excite, call change during best race fraction , and racing wides.
Add together horse's final time and best "touching fractions time" (1-2,2-3 0r 3-4) and FQTime. Lowest number wins.

Bennie
When you say add seconds for post adjustment, do you mean post in today's race added to last PP line?

[mrroyboy]

Uh Ray?

Could you repeat that in English please? LOL