DRF vs. Morning Line

[maxwell]

I have to scratch my head at a couple of races at Hollywood.

Classy Boy

ML : 8/1

DRF : 50/1

Classy Boy won and paid 8/1

Epitome of a Lady

ML : 10/1

DRF : 50/1

Epitome of a Lady won and paid 27/1 ( at least the DRF was in the ballpark on this one ).

If you and I can tell the difference between an 8/1 horse and a 50/1 bomb, how does this happen?

If you're handicapping the pick six and you need to toss a few horses, the DRF odds could throw you for a real loop ... perhaps a very expensive loop!

I know there's a formula used to figure out the odds but that doesn't explain this oddity.

[rufus999]

There is none for DRF. That's why their morning line odds are so arbitrary.
I frequently purchase individual track cards online from DRF but when I glance at the entries for the day I purposely avoid the ML's to avoid prejudicial decisions later on. There is a formula for this crap. A good book to read is Beyer's 'Beyer On Speed'. He discusses Australian bookies at some length and offers some keen insights on how they go about their business. Those guys down under live and die by the odds they make so 'dead balls on accurate' is the only way to survive.

rufus

[maxwell]

R99,

I did read that book; a very good read. I thought his adventures in Aussieland were great. Guys betting 500K over a weekend! The chapter on the Aussie bookie and the high-roller was interesting to say the least. :)

[psufan43]

great topic, me and track buddy talk about this every wkend. About a wk ago, i liked this horse at mth coal play, DRF had him 8-1. I knew there was absoutley no way he would go off at that. he went off at 3-5. I love the drf, and i think its a great publication. But they need to either use ML's are get some ppl to make better ones

[DrugS]

There are VERY few decent linemakers in this country.

[njcurveball]

There are VERY few decent linemakers in this country.


You get what you pay for. Typical morning line is done in 30 minutes or less and the job pays around $50, but usually part of the duties of a guy doing that plus 2 or 3 other jobs at the track.

People who judge the tote board based on the morning line are going to be as competent as those using a sun dial on a cloudy day.

[1st time lasix]

If you're handicapping the pick six and you need to toss a few horses, the DRF odds could throw you for a real loop ... perhaps a very expensive loop!

Why on earth would use the ML to put together a handicapped investment into a pick 6 or a Pick 4? Trust yourself.....or improve your skills before diving in to such an expensive wager. The road is littered with tickets put together without a conprehensive review.

[Fingal]

Odds from graded HCP in the DRF or Newspaper, totally subjective & consider following them at your own risk.

The "Official" track Morning Line, nice to look at, but IMO only serves a purpose for the occasional weekend warrior.

At Santa Anita, the board overlooking the walking ring only has the current odds.:ThmbUp:

The Afternoon Line, when it really counts, priceless.

[A. Pineda]

Have always considered faulty ML's to be an ally, not an obstacle. The worse, the better. Anything that confuses the opposition is my friend.

When "E" made the line at DM you would open the program expecting your horse to be 5/2, and there he would be at 15/1. It was difficult to keep from drooling on the Form.

[46zilzal]

Here and I thought Alvaro Pineda died in a gate accident at Santa Anita!

[njcurveball]

Have always considered faulty ML's to be an ally, not an obstacle. The worse, the better. Anything that confuses the opposition is my friend.

.

That is certainly one side of the coin. The other side is that most of the simulcast crowd lives and dies by the morning line. If they see their choice at 10-1 ML, they look for another horse. If they look up and see a 10-1 ML horse bet down to 2-1 (even if the ML should have been 5-2), they assume it is a "hot" horse.

Same way with a ML favorite going off above it's odds. With todays betting structure there is no logical flow of money through the betting window. For those who think a tote system is consistent enough to bet money on it, I applaud your guts. :ThmbUp:

Jim

[A. Pineda]

That is certainly one side of the coin. The other side is that most of the simulcast crowd lives and dies by the morning line. If they see their choice at 10-1 ML, they look for another horse. If they look up and see a 10-1 ML horse bet down to 2-1 (even if the ML should have been 5-2), they assume it is a "hot" horse.
Jim

It is hard to believe that such a large group of knowledgeable bettors would base their wagering decisions on the opinion of one person, but I'll have to take your word for that. Personally, I am extremely happy to learn this.

When "J" was an analyst for the DRF, he hosted a morning seminar at SA and was questioned about one of his top picks. His reply, "Now that I'm looking at him again, you're right, he probably isn't good enough today."

[maxwell]

1st. Lasix,

Why on earth? You answered your own question.

... such an expensive wager ...

Sometimes I - and most players - come up with too many horses that can't be seperated. What to do? Toss a coin or go with the most logical play based on some form of betting line?

If I'm betting to win and I like two horses, I know what I'm going to do based on how well I've done with horses going off at certain odds. If one horse is 4/1 and the other is 9/1, I'm betting the 9/1 pony. If one horse is 20/1 and the other is 9/1, I'm betting the 9/1 pony. If you're betting into an exotic pool like the pick six you don't have that luxury.

What I'm trying to say here is, before you toss your hands up into the air and toss your 50/1 horse out, make sure the horse is not actually 8 or 10/1

It's kind of a "Heads up" post. :)