Lone maiden against winners.

[BlueShoe]

In starting this thread I am keeping a promise to a very obstinate long time race track buddy that does not use computers.He insists that there is a long time flat bet profit to be had simply by wagering to win on a maiden racing against winners when it is the only one in the field.I have argued until I am blue in the face that no one rule angle or system could possibly show a long term profit,and if there was such a thing,it would have been discoverd and pounded at the windows until it was no longer profitable long ago.He wont budge,and has rattled off a few boxcar winners he says he has had in the last couple of years.Seem to recall reading a book by an author named Bob Bacon published in the 50's that had this angle as one of the chapters,but in today's world?Would any of the data bases have this info to check on,or if not,any opinions?My pal wont believe me,but might listen to anothers informed opinion.

[misscashalot]

In starting this thread I am keeping a promise to a very obstinate long time race track buddy that does not use computers.He insists that there is a long time flat bet profit to be had simply by wagering to win on a maiden racing against winners when it is the only one in the field.I have argued until I am blue in the face that no one rule angle or system could possibly show a long term profit,and if there was such a thing,it would have been discoverd and pounded at the windows until it was no longer profitable long ago.He wont budge,and has rattled off a few boxcar winners he says he has had in the last couple of years.Seem to recall reading a book by an author named Bob Bacon published in the 50's that had this angle as one of the chapters,but in today's world?Would any of the data bases have this info to check on,or if not,any opinions?My pal wont believe me,but might listen to anothers informed opinion.

Maybe he's right maybe not, but you gonna have to have a lot of patience. Maybe he'll bet 4 or 5 races a year. It's a non-subject.....like watching paint dry.

[CapperLou]

Bacon's book was one of the first five books I purchased. I remember this spot play very well--although as the previous post indicated--there are very few plays.
Back in 1986 however, I was at Calder and one of these plays came up and the horse had great workouts and was a shipper if I recall correctly. It was also an older maiden and won and paid $70 odd dollars if I remember well.
My friend Ken O'Garra and I shared a ticket on the darn thing. He was an agent for Ric Squartino at that time.
I have not looked for any of these types of plays in a long time.

[Jens]

BlueShoe,

I'm guessing your buddy brought this play up after Congo Kaye won the 11th at Pln on July 6 paying $48.40. However, I hate to burst your buddys bubble but from over 100,000 races in my databases spanning 2006, 2007, and 2008 I show only 6 winners from 150 plays and a loss on a $2 wager of ($67.50) for a roi of 0.775 for winners races with a lone first time starter. Winners races with exactly two first time starters were 4/62 for a loss of ($73.00) and a roi of .4113. Winners races with exactly 3 first time starter actually showed a profit (undoubtedly due to small sample size) with 6/48 and a profit of $8.80 for a roi of 1.0917.

[ryesteve]

I'm guessing your buddy brought this play up after Congo Kaye won the 11th at Pln on July 6 paying $48.40.But there were two other maidens in that race, so his buddy wouldn't have had it...

[Bobzilla]

Visited Colonial Downs in Virginia for the first time on Tuesday June 24th. Race 8 of that card represents an example of this angle. The race was written as a Clm (16-14) N2L at 6f on dirt. Lost One's Halo was a maiden going into the race with 8 lifetime starts against MSWs at Tampa and Delaware, actually better racs than the ones the others had been running in. LOH was also coming out of his first turf event at a mile and was now cutting back on dirt. A few spot play angles were seen here. Lost One's Halo won going away after a wide trip as the only maiden in the race. He had been at 6-1 on the board minutes before the race but at post time I believe he was 7-2.

[pic6vic]

check out the 8th today 7/9 at Solano (Northern Cal) the number 5. Maiden running against winners

[wegoosewe]

interesting had trouble in the first start, was only 2nd beaten 4 lengths but he was a head of the 3rd horse by 8 1/4 lengths either a heck of a performance of weak group of maidens

[rufus999]

As a general rule I discount first time maidens against winners. Unless, of course, the winners are a total bunch of losers, like Bob Bacon!:lol:

Rufus

Other miraculous Baconites:
Lloyd - lousy director
Francis - lousy artist
Kevin - lousy actor

[john del riccio]

I have found a very strong correlation to the pace of the maiden's winning race and what its likely to face today. Maiden winner that come out of races where the pace was ordinary fall on their faces. When those maiden winners
were close to the pace or on the lead, they are some of the worst bets around.

John

[Jens]

Steve,

You're right. I misread the question. Guess I was remembering the day back in 1978 when I cashed with Envoy's Agent at a big number when he broke his maiden as a fts in a stake race at BM. Somehow that must have made me interpret his question as lone fts in a winners race. As far as BlueShoe's actual question goes (lone maiden, whether it had run previously or not, against winners) I don't have the skills to query those parameters so I'll leave it to the more technically able.

[eastie]

As a general rule I discount first time maidens against winners. Unless, of course, the winners are a total bunch of losers, like Bob Bacon!:lol:

Rufus

Other miraculous Baconites:
Lloyd - lousy director
Francis - lousy artist
Kevin - lousy actor
and Eggs- breakfast of champions!

[whyhorseofcourse]

Autism Awareness won the El Camino derby at bay meadows and I believe breaking its maiden at 60ish-1. What ever happened to that horse?

[BlueShoe]

Jens,thanks for the info.My pal does not differentiate between first starters and those with experience.My seat-of-the-pants opinion is that this angle works best with 2 yr.olds and not well with older more seasoned runners.Believe that a maiden won a 2 yr. old stake at the current Hollypark meet at a short price on a day on which I did not play.

[Bobzilla]

BlueShoe's buddy's long term profit situation, as defined in the first post of this thread, is represented in today's 7th race at Belmont where The Chief sends out Who Can Bluff, a maiden taking on an ordinary group in a Clm 15000 N2L for three and up. I would think he's got a chance as well as the 6 and the 8. I might single WCB in the P6 barring a scratch.

[jotb]

Autism Awareness won the El Camino derby at bay meadows and I believe breaking its maiden at 60ish-1. What ever happened to that horse?

I think you mean to say Autism Awareness broke his maiden first and then went on to win the EL Camino Derby at 62-1.

Joe

[dutchboy]

A little off track of this thread but if you look at DMR R3 on Friday 7/18/08 there were two first time starters in a maiden claiming race.

One of those two horses won and paid 101.20. Based on workout points the 101 dollar winner had the best rating of the 10 horses in the races. I assume the 15-1 morning line scared off the majority of computer programs and the public.

A maiden first time starter with good workouts may be worth consideration.

Someone did post this selection on this board in another thread before the races started on Friday night.

[jotb]

A little off track of this thread but if you look at DMR R3 on Friday 7/18/08 there were two first time starters in a maiden claiming race.

One of those two horses won and paid 101.20. Based on workout points the 101 dollar winner had the best rating of the 10 horses in the races. I assume the 15-1 morning line scared off the majority of computer programs and the public.

A maiden first time starter with good workouts may be worth consideration.

Someone did post this selection on this board in another thread before the races started on Friday night.

I don't know what workout points are. All I know is that he (the winner) needed 20 works to make his debut. I believe it started back in Dec-13-07 to Jul 14-08. 19 of those works were at SA. He did have quite a few 6F works and even a 7F work pretty close to his debut. I think the distance of the race was 5.5F. Trainer is now 25% with first time starts but low in debut starts with 16.

Joe