Best time to place a bet relative to MTP (now with data!)

[podonne]

Hello,

I spent some time earlier today thinking about how close I could comfortably get to the post time before placing a bet and being reasonably sure that I would get the odds I expected. So I pulled some minute-by-minute odds and charted the cumulative difference between the odds at each MTP and the final odds. I was hoping to find an inflection point between 6 and 2 MTP that would make a natural point to pull the trigger.

I found what most probably expect. It pretty much doesn't matter when you bet, the closer to post the better. There was a curious change in slope at 8MTP and 6MTP, but a straight line to the post after that.

Chart atatched, x axis is minutes to post, Y axis is an average cumulative difference from about 4,000 races.

Cheers,
Phil

[ddog]

10 to 8 is normally on-track time, there used to always be a surge of action right in there.
I think for using the tote, that is the time, forget the rest of it.

Of course, with the on-track handle so anemic anymore who could say?

[rrbauer]

When you have the winner!

[misscashalot]

Hello,

I spent some time earlier today thinking about how close I could comfortably get to the post time before placing a bet and being reasonably sure that I would get the odds I expected. So I pulled some minute-by-minute odds and charted the cumulative difference between the odds at each MTP and the final odds. I was hoping to find an inflection point between 6 and 2 MTP that would make a natural point to pull the trigger.

I found what most probably expect. It pretty much doesn't matter when you bet, the closer to post the better. There was a curious change in slope at 8MTP and 6MTP, but a straight line to the post after that.

Chart atatched, x axis is minutes to post, Y axis is an average cumulative difference from about 4,000 races.

Cheers,
Phil

Different tracks have different patterns according to the size of the pool. I use the place pool as my indicator. I pay attention to several tracks. My observation says that the smaller the handle, the greater the fluctuation especially the closer to post time. NYRA is extremely stable with little fluctuation from 5 MTP to the bell. Tracks like Del or Mth bounce around right up to the opening bell. What track is your chart based on?

[raybo]

Seems obvious to me that the best time to place a bet and get the odds showing at that time (or very close to those odds) would be the last possible moment for which you can expect to get the bet down. Yes, the odds change some after the windows close, or your ADW stops accepting bets, for the race, but normally it's not enough to cause alarm.

[Fingal]

When you have the winner!

:cool:

Since charting the tote board isn't my bit, I only really look at closely 3 times:

When the race opens to see the 1st flash & the early bird money.

When the horses leave the walking ring.

After they've been on the track in the post parade for 5 minutes or so.

I figure those are the times that people bet after getting the visual information to either confirm or reject their picks.

[vgeek]

Or you can bet Indiana Downs, the odds change there more after the gates open than at 8mtp.

[podonne]

Different tracks have different patterns according to the size of the pool. I use the place pool as my indicator. I pay attention to several tracks. My observation says that the smaller the handle, the greater the fluctuation especially the closer to post time. NYRA is extremely stable with little fluctuation from 5 MTP to the bell. Tracks like Del or Mth bounce around right up to the opening bell. What track is your chart based on?

It's a bunch of different tracks. interesting thought though, that maybe I can find that elusive inflection point if I break out the data by track.

I assume the observation that major tracks have less variability is just a functon of the pool size. Larger pools mean that the odds fluctuate less rapidly. That makes some sense I suppose, but if your playing style is heavily dependent on accurate odds at the moment the bet is made, you pretty much have to stick to larger tracks.

[misscashalot]

It's a bunch of different tracks. interesting thought though, that maybe I can find that elusive inflection point if I break out the data by track.

I assume the observation that major tracks have less variability is just a functon of the pool size. Larger pools mean that the odds fluctuate less rapidly. That makes some sense I suppose, but if your playing style is heavily dependent on accurate odds at the moment the bet is made, you pretty much have to stick to larger tracks.

It would be interesting to see the charts for individual tracks or better yet circuits no matter the sampling. On the NYRA circuit there's approx 2,200 races per year. If it were possible it would be interesting to break out the Saratoga meet where the $ is flying and somewhat stupid.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Or you can bet Indiana Downs, the odds change there more after the gates open than at 8mtp.

The size of a betting pool determines the heavy late flux. The smaller the pool, the more the post time flux.

If you were to separate your graph according to purse structure, which most often determines size of betting pool, you would find races such as the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, or Breeders Cup Day have minimal post time odds flux as compared to a small pool at Indiana Whoever.

I would be interested to see your graph separated as, all Belmont races opposed to all Indiana Downs races.

Dr. SwineSmeller

Edit: I hadn't read your commentary til just now after I made this post Misscashalot. Seems I restated much of what you already said. Great minds think alike I guess. SS

[ranchwest]

When you have the winner!

I think I'll print that out and tape it to my laptop. A classic (seriously).