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View Full Version : Belmont slow horses 7/2/08


jonnielu
07-02-2008, 12:43 PM
Ability-X -Belmont Park 7/02/2008 Wednesday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+. 1st - 6fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

231 6 96 8 327
236 7 93 4 329
209 8 90 3.5 299
238 5 90 12 328
300 4 89 10 389
188 3 89 3 277
402 2 0 2.5 402


#4 is just as slow as #3, and should be bringing it through the stretch.

2nd - 8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

230 3 98 20 328
229 1 96 2.5 325
210 6 95 3.5 305
231 2 92 10 323
226 4 87 8 313
178 7 86 5 264
249 5 77 12 326


8f might not be enough room for the super slow #9, but, the rating suggests big run on the back.

3rd - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

319 1 100 2.5 419
321 2 98 15 419
250 5 95 5 345
245 6 93 3 338
253 3 93 12 346
219 4 92 1.6 311


Fast and slow converge at the wire, maybe the exacta will create some value.

4th - 8.5fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

155 2 99 15 254
126 1 96 5 222
143 5 95 15 238
114 7 88 6 202
125 4 85 30 210
94 6 85 3 179
89 8 83 2.5 172
99 3 83 4 182

#3 might not be any slower then #8, with a touch more giddyup in the stretch.


5th - 5.5fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

317 7 96 6 413
322 4 96 2.5 418
307 3 96 1.4 403
412 5 94 30 506
137 1 0 10 137
182 2 0 8 182
121 6 0 12 121

A first timer to watch in #2, but I'm suspicious of the slow #5 here.


6th -8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

190 1 93 12 283
268 9 92 12 360
200 5 91 12 291
243 2 91 6 334
192 8 87 3.5 279
251 4 84 15 335
194 6 83 4.5 277

I like the exacta possibilities for 1,4,8, #4 has some nice "slow" going here too.


7th -8.5f Turf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

63 5 96 3 159
122 4 89 6 211
61 1 88 3.5 149
91 6 87 30 178
76 2 86 15 162
119 3 85 30 204
57 7 84 20 141
97 8 84 4.5 181
127 9 82 10 209
118 10 82 5 200

I like #9 for the run down better then #10, but #10 won't surprise me either. I'm hoping that #2 gets blocked.

8th -9fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

56 3 94 1.8 150
75 1 93 6 168
72 5 91 10 163
65 2 91 12 156
135 4 90 2 225
102 7 89 15 191
109 6 86 8 195

Slowness should rule at 9f, but you've got to give the class a shot in the feature too. A 6,3 exacta might honor both notions.


9th -6fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

422 8 99 30 521
362 7 93 3 455
394 4 89 30 483
357 10 89 20 446
426 1 89 30 515
314 5 88 20 402
357 2 87 10 444
352 6 86 20 438
282 9 86 15 368
338 11 83 4 421
196 3 0 3.5 196
142 12 0 4.5 142


Slow is good on the grass too, not necessarily at 6f, but #11 has a good rating here too. #8 is very attractive, I think I'll go in that direction, after all it is on the grass.

A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here.