Exotics vs. Win wagering

[dav4463]

What is the best way to play? Should you try to grind out a profit playing to win or win/place and make a little money over the long haul...or is it better to take all the money and play the exotics, primarily trifectas and superfectas, looking for the big hit that will make your meet or year ?

[formula_2002]

Dav

Win betting verse exotics.
Mathematically you can leverage your edge in the pic plays.
Here is a copy of a note I recently posted regarding the pic 4 at aqu on 2/27 .

“If you had no edge in the win pool (loss of 15%), a single pick in each of the 4 races would have cut yours losses down to -3%.

If you suffer a 10% loss in the win pool, the pick four would have given you a positive return of 22% in the pick 4 pool.


Check it out on the "inter-active pick 4 table"”
The pick 4 table allows you to enter the win odds in each of the 4 legs.
Then enter the $1 payout for the pick four. You can then see the leverage created by your play by also entering you edge.

Regarding win, place or show betting.
Another useful table is “Public’s estimation of the Odds”

while the public can lose 18% in the win pool on an even money horse, it cuts its losses to 10% in the place pool and 9% in the show pool.
The table list the $ nets for all rounded odds up to 20-1

http://globalwinningpicks.homestead.com/GLOBALWINNINGPICKSX.html

[kenwoodall]

I bet how i can profit over the long haul= show and win bets. I cannot pick more than 25 horses off the whole racing form, 1 per race. I get to play more races that way anyway! Remember you are betting against drunk addicted wild gamblers so beat them with common sense! Even in exotics demand overlays even on low odds horses!

[superfecta]

Originally posted by dav4463
What is the best way to play? Should you try to grind out a profit playing to win or win/place and make a little money over the long haul...or is it better to take all the money and play the exotics, primarily trifectas and superfectas, looking for the big hit that will make your meet or year ? There is no universal "best" way to bet the horses.Just as there is no magic system,there is no best type of bet for everyone.As has been stated before,depending on your abiliities,that would determine what type of wager brings you a profit is best for you.

[hurrikane]

a couple of things to keep in mind

the take out on the exotics is usually higher. You don't feel this because by the time you collect they have already applied the vaseline so it doesn't seem to hurt.

these big wins srom the exotic pools you talk about come with a price. Uncle Sam. It doesn't take much to get a signer in the exotic pool and then you have a whole new relative to support you didn't know you had.

so, if you factor in the take and the relatives you could be losing as much as 40% of your money to expenses without realizing it.

I make my money in the win pools.
I have some fun once in a while in the exotics.