Early speed means nothing in route races

[dav4463]

Early speed cost me a route race $69 winner! I think the horse's name was Boortz (something like that) at Mountaineer.

His running lines were all double-digit lengths behind at the early calls, but in this particular race, his figures and connections made him my third highest rated horse. I usually play my third high rated horse if he is 8-1 or higher, but after looking at the double-digit lengths behind in every race....I didn't bet him!

It makes me want to just ignore early speed in routes, since this isn't the first time I've missed out on a big longshot because I want to see some early speed.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

I'm betting your decision to not bet the horse was swayed and finalized in your mind by the 30/1 mark on the odds board? Had he set in at 8/1, you would have likely played him, no?

Dr. SwineSmeller

[Chris Longshot]

i disagree with your statement but understand your frustration, speed at a route at mnr holds up pretty good especially with top jocks controlling the pace, in general closers/pace horses do better at a route, but it is certainly not astounding, i actually cashed a ticket on boortz that night, it was a minor miracle that horse was even competitive in that race since he broke slow, lost many lengths and was well behind the field throughout, even though he's a deep closer,but then only to come charging in the stretch plus squeezed and split tired horses to get up, i was actually talking to a couple mnr trainers/players about the trip, we were all amazed, it still astounds me how he got up in time, despite the front end meltdown. however,trainers horses right now are on fire at any price, sometimes thats all that matters, seems their horses will recover from any adversity.

[ranchwest]

I guess you wouldn't have liked Wise Times in the Super Derby. He came from about 25 lengths off to win.

[njcurveball]

this isn't the first time I've missed out on a big longshot because I want to see some early speed.

Seems like you are fighting against yourself. Is there a reason you want 8-1 on your 3rd choice? There sure is! So why not just add some premium points for the negative factors. Perhaps set your line at 15-1 for those that do not show early speed.

We all remember the longshots that won, but very few remember all of them that lost. In a given week at a track you may see 2 or 3 horses win at $50+. Those you remember.

However, there may have been 20,30,40, perhaps even 50 of them that finished up the track that week. 2 wins out of 50 is a tough way to win as most people cannot ride out losing streaks of over 100 races.

Stick with your guns here, but add a premium for the negative factors. The crowd isn't as dumb as people think. You need some "ugliness" to get a price.

good luck,
Jim

[jonnielu]

Early speed cost me a route race $69 winner! I think the horse's name was Boortz (something like that) at Mountaineer.

His running lines were all double-digit lengths behind at the early calls, but in this particular race, his figures and connections made him my third highest rated horse. I usually play my third high rated horse if he is 8-1 or higher, but after looking at the double-digit lengths behind in every race....I didn't bet him!

It makes me want to just ignore early speed in routes, since this isn't the first time I've missed out on a big longshot because I want to see some early speed.

Dave,

Early speed matters a great deal, but not high early speed. A route, by nature, is not a distance that generally favors early speed. That is the first thing, but it is actually secondary to a larger point, because high early speed horses do frequently win route races. It depends on whether or not there is a horse in this race that has been particularly prepped to take an "on purpose" run at winning this race.

If so, that horse may well be the lowest early speed from last, entered in today's race, or what I like to call the slowest horse in the race. Why?

Because first I want to know if my horse can run 9f with X class. Do I put him in and tell the jockey to go hell for leather to find out? No, because then I'll probably just get back a worn out horse, and still not really have any answers to my questions that aren't obvious to everybody else. So, now any move I make in distance or class is also obvious to everyone else.

Instead, I tell my jockey that the horse needs this race, don't push him early, but let's see how he goes late with these. Hell, a soft start alone will throw the speed handicappers off by 10 points on the next race. So, we take up 9th and let our charge cruise to 6th, the form followers will dismiss that as passing tired horses, maybe the chart caller to chime in with that same commentary. We have birthed next weeks surprise longshot.

So now it is 16 days later, and the horse that won last time is now the favorite in the betting, and our same target lined up for our second shot. All we've got to do, is keep the target in range and let him struggle to stay in front of us. Maybe we can even get a little help from another "speed believer" that has decide to go hell for leather today in an attempt to get a picture taken, then we can pull the trigger on both of them and kill two with the same shot.

What do we care if the handicappers accuse us of being "on the juice", they see us do this every day, and that is still the best that they can come up with.

Want to have some fun? Let's see how many two turn races are won this week by one of the two lowest early speed from last horses at Belmont.

Saturday, there was 2 out of 5. But, maybe that was just a fluke.

jdl

P.S. The horse 10 lengths back, has to run just as "fast" as the leader to stay within 10 lengths. But, the horse 10 lengths back can never "earn" the same speed rating as the leader. Sorry Andy.

[RichieP]

Another of the "old hossy myths" just like "horses can't go wire to wire on the grass". Just like "speed is dead on poly".

Hope it becomes even more fashionable to ignore these early (Positional) runners on polytracks, dirt routes and turf races.

[ddog]

Another of the "old hossy myths" just like "horses can't go wire to wire on the grass". Just like "speed is dead on poly".

Hope it becomes even more fashionable to ignore these early (Positional) runners on polytracks, dirt routes and turf races.

Agree with you on this.
always the biggest prices I ever catch are when a"low-class" or "unproven" animal makes it.

all about the field makeup and the conditon of same.

:jump:

[Tom]

Trouble with "overall" stats is that they make you bet "this'n today" not "overall."

[MaTH716]

Agree with you on this.
always the biggest prices I ever catch are when a"low-class" or "unproven" animal makes it.

all about the field makeup and the conditon of same.

:jump:

I totally agree. Those cheap 5k claimers at Mountaineeer are the worst. Anything is possible in those races. You have horses that should be pulling carts in Central Park digging in and paying $70.00. I threw the towel in at that track a long time ago.

[jonnielu]

Another of the "old hossy myths" just like "horses can't go wire to wire on the grass". Just like "speed is dead on poly".

Hope it becomes even more fashionable to ignore these early (Positional) runners on polytracks, dirt routes and turf races.

Nobody said anything about can't, it is not speed that kills on grass, and poly is a fast surface. The only thing that is going on all of the time, every time, is the race will be a contest of the fast and the slow off of last. The fast doesn't always win, and neither does the slow, but what you think is slow and see as slow has an advantage today when ability is relatively equal.

All horses have "speed", winning or losing is a matter of how the run is executed over the distance.

jdl

[46zilzal]

I guess then all of those studies by Quirin were just fiction!!!

[ddog]

nope , but they are comforting to some i guess.
besides being HOW OLD AGAIN?

[46zilzal]

nope , but they are comforting to some i guess.
besides being HOW OLD AGAIN?
The basics of energy distribution on dirt have not changed this century.

[njcurveball]

I guess then all of those studies by Quirin were just fiction!!!


A BIG problem that even YOU will agree with is doing studies with RESULT data. There is an "early" bias in any event. Baseball, Football, Basketball, etc. Simply from the fact that horses that are not ready today will not vie for the lead.

Baseball is a 9 inning game where 95% of the team the team with the lead after 8 innings will win. Is this a bias? Of course not. Fast and fit horses make the lead and win. Fast and fit closers go by them in the stretch as well.

There is no way to judge whethere a closer "fired" by looking at the results charts.

Early speed bias is not everything people make it out to be.

Jim

[46zilzal]

Early speed bias is not everything people make it out to be.

Good...please tell all your friends and be persuasive too!!

[njcurveball]

Good...please tell all your friends and be persuasive too!!

To all my friends and those who will listen here is the "real" scoop on horse racing.

The charts are meaningless. If your model "before handicapping" shows that first fraction is winning, who gives a hoot if the horse closed to win. I assure you that even when you bet #1 first fraction horses and they don't get the lead, you will still get paid the same amount as when they do.

If 3rd fraction shows a profit in your model, forget all the early speed gospel and bet it!

If you find 2nd fraction is winning, you are allowed to bet that one as well.

You will make much more money analyzing your "BEFORE RACE" handicapping then trying to verify what happened in the charts is what was supposed to happen.

I understand where 46 is coming from, he is a classic CSI handicapper. He is very good with a chart in front of him to say which horses ran 1-2-3 and then matches pacelines to explain it. :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

No early horses do better than the crowd expects of them.

5th race - Belmont Park - July 02, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Tough Jake 8.70 5.20 4.70
5 Gimmee Getme 41.80 21.20
1 Above All Odds 11.60

$2 Exacta 4-5 285.50

The more positive the balance, the earlier the projection today before the race......

P.S. I don't look at charts just past performances and energy distribution.

[Tom]

No, I know 46 uses his program output, not charts, to define his running styles. He could give a hoot where they are positionally, more than not. His energy distribution is based on PPs. That little E/L graph he posts a lot is one of the most protent handicapping tools I've ever seen. I go to the trouble of using dos based VAL to get that one and the BL/BL odds lines.

[njcurveball]

His energy distribution is based on PPs. That little E/L graph he posts a lot is one of the most protent handicapping tools I've ever seen.

It is potent to know that he picks two pacelines. One shows the horse early, one shows the horse late. AFTER the race he can delete either one and still be right. Good planning! :ThmbUp:


Look at the example posted above.

For Blaz he has the horse EITHER +11 or -19.

For Craft either +5.5 or -1.4

ALL bases covered. :jump:

I guess we will have to call these his Ability Z ratings. :liar:

[46zilzal]

Not knowing a thing about the supplementary screens you can ASSUME all you like.

"Hit gate start, green" accounts of the atypical negative line from the three. When they do not run early, typical for maidens, one looks at other lines to see if they are, in fact, capable of it.

[andicap]

That's a cheap shot. If you examine the graph you'll see Blaz has nothing to do with the result and the horse he highlights Gimmee Getme has two early energy ratings -- a prime illustration of 46's point.

And yes, horses will show dualities in their PPs, often depending on the pace of the race. In the final analysis you decide which was you think
a) today's pace will be run
b) at which energy distribution is the horse most effective?

A lot of horses will show "early" and "sustained" distribution in their PPs.
If a horse has an "E" run style and gets a cozy pace, voila!, a sustained energy profile (even though he goes wire to wire in the chart -- maybe the main reason 46 doesn't look at charts).






It is potent to know that he picks two pacelines. One shows the horse early, one shows the horse late. AFTER the race he can delete either one and still be right. Good planning! :ThmbUp:


Look at the example posted above.

For Blaz he has the horse EITHER +11 or -19.

For Craft either +5.5 or -1.4

ALL bases covered. :jump:

I guess we will have to call these his Ability Z ratings. :liar:

[njcurveball]

That's a cheap shot. If you examine the graph you'll see Blaz has nothing to do with the result and the horse he highlights Gimmee Getme has two early energy ratings -- a prime illustration of 46's point.



If I examined the graph, I would say that Blaz2 was a standout as it looks like a hotly contested pace.

Only problem is that Blaz1 is contesting that hot pace.

The fact that he has Gimme as a contender on the graph with a total energy of over 4 points less than the best is either a great call or a "cherry picked" horse. You also state he has TWO energy ratings, but I only see one. Has the graph changed already?

Blaz was the "key" to making money in this race and if you knew he would run last at 3-5 then that would have been a much better call than picking two pacelines for the horse to go either way.

Fourteen and Out was scratched, so I guess you could also crawl behind him and trumpet he had a 4 horse exacta box that paid $285 as well.

Give me a break here! I have seen better calls from people reading the track program! From this graph, Craft was the play on Total Energy and Blaz was the choice for counter energy. Both ran out and 70-1 Gimme who had poor total energy was a non contender and if you thought he deserved to be on the graph than no sense picking any pacelines, just put him in your wager.

Jim

[ddog]

The basics of energy distribution on dirt have not changed this century.


on poly on grass on new dirt tracks with different turns,etc.

I will bet and do that this is a blind losing generality even "on dirt only".

[46zilzal]

on poly on grass on new dirt tracks with different turns,etc.


The biomechanics of a horse in motion are the same, the surface is the same and the results are the same on dirt...

Did I not say DIRT?

[njcurveball]

The biomechanics of a horse in motion are the same, the surface is the same and the results are the same on dirt...



Good...please tell all your friends and be persuasive too!! :lol:

[ddog]

The biomechanics of a horse in motion are the same, the surface is the same and the results are the same on dirt...

Did I not say DIRT?

Did you not read my last line, the money line I would call it?
It's in the title for your ease.


The bio of horses are not and never have been all the same.
Now the theory of same , maybe yes.

The "surface" "dirt" across all tracks is not the same in this century , never has been , never will be.

You run your charts or whatever against Charlestown or EVD or any of a dozen other goofy tracks and post a couple of dozen before the race and we will see.

I am kindly skeptical.

Not that it matters much, but there it is.

[46zilzal]

Quadraped locomotion has been worked out with only slight variances. I haven't seen a new way to change leads, to shorten, to over-reach, to cross fire, to bear out etc.

The more one is seasoned to the history of horse racing, the more one realizes that each chapter is but a variation on a common theme that has been playing over and over, since the game began.

Harry Truman: "If you think you've come up with a truly original thought, well, you just haven't read enough."

[46zilzal]

Give me a break here! I have seen better calls from people reading the track program! From this graph, Craft was the play on Total Energy and Blaz was the choice for counter energy. Both ran out and 70-1 Gimme who had poor total energy was a non contender and if you thought he deserved to be on the graph than no sense picking any pacelines, just put him in your wager.


it's unfortunate you are not conversant with this program to the point of being able to describe it to anyone.


Leave alone what you don't understand.

[Ted Craven]

I believe the result was somewhat less obscure, given a rigourous approach (i.e. you took a similar approach before):

Crafty is an Early horse who is too slow (included here as one of only 4 horses with any PPs), so its appearance ontop of the Betting Line is spurious - it won't win today. The earliest Early horse is Gimme, but its best Total Energy (and BL odds line) show probably not enough gas today, so not for win, but it is certainly reasonable to presume it will run its eyeballs out, that's all it can do.

Then it's Tough and Blaze, but who wants to bet on a 0.65-1 horse. Take what the Betting line says: Tough, and pair it somehow with the counter-energy horse: Gimme (i.e. from the E/L chart, whose energy disbursement is most opposite to the identified win contender).

Re Odds-line: can we get more than 7/2 for Gimme?

All post-hoc, but useful analysis for the next time this race runs again, just with different actors.

http://sartinmethodology.com/images/pa/bel0702-5.gif

Tom, your screens, spruced up for the prom...

Ted

[andicap]

Two things to "add" to this thread

1. NJ, you ARE right in that I get a bit tired of 46 posting the Sartin energy matrixes but not explaining what it all means and WHY one horse stood out from the rest. Just exactly how did he interpret the readouts -- give me a step by step description.

We've had this argument about redboarding here and 46 has -- IMHO rightly -- defended the concept as a valuable way to illustrate a handicapping point. It's done all the time in handicapping books. But redboarding has NO validity if the author gives us zero context.

2. Back to the original post here. I ran the HTR ROBOT database for routes at MNR on fast dirt surfaces this year.
I used the automatic PL method which is heavily weighted toward recent races at today's distance/surface, etc. I used only two small filters:
1. No horses over 50-1.
2. No "chaos" races.

A. Horses with the top 1st fraction returned 88 cents on the dollar with no other filters. And it wasn't a lone bomb that did it -- the highest price was $23 and the win% was 20%. That was over 125 races.
B. Conversely horses with the best last fraction returned only 69 cents with a 17% win.
C. Horses that are confirmed frontrunners did even better returning 99 cents in 44 races both to win AND place.
D. Horses with 6 or more Quirin Speed Points returned 98 cents on the dollar to win and place over 159 races.
E. Horses with feet per second velocity of 50.00 or more returned only 73 cents on the dollar in 243 races.


Then I reran the ROBOT using a different paceline selection. I used the LAST RACE.

A. Best first fraction returned a PROFIT of 7 cents on the dollar in 130 races winning 22%. Interestinly second-best F1 returned just 36 cents! Again top mutuel was $23. Top EP (2nd call) returned a 6 cent profit in 130 races.
B. In drilling a little deeper, I discovered i could really boost my ROI by leavign out maiden claimers (1-16 with a loss of 84 cents -- tho such a small sample is probably irrelevant.) Or by combining best F1 with best EP I got a 29-cent profit over 74 races at a 24% win rate and no horse over $23 with a 1-cent place profit. (this includes the MCL races)
Horses with 6 or more Quirin Pts that were also top F1 (last race PL) won 36 cents on the dollar over 60 races with a 25% win rate and $23 top mutuel.
C. The method lost money in only one month April but was profitable March, May June.
D. you would have improved your ROI by filtering out really cheap races and field sizes of 10. (the highest field size in these races. In fact just by eliminating the cheapest races (which HTR rated at 89 and below with 115 the top class) and your ROI jumps to 53-cents in 80 races at a 29% win rate and a 4 % place margin with 39% wins. That's a really nice play with a 5% rebate given the consistency.



Then I reran the ROBOT filtering top F1 with the automatic PL selection.

A. Horses with 6 or more Quirin Speed Points returned a 21-cent profit in 56 races.
B. If you filtered out out of form horses using HTR's K Rating, top F1s returned a 12-cent profit in 88 races.


Now i'm not saying these results will hold up and you should automatically bet it , BUT

Does anyone still want to throw out early speed horses at routes at Mountaineer?

[46zilzal]

Two things to "add" to this thread

1. NJ, you ARE right in that I get a bit tired of 46 posting the Sartin energy matrixes but not explaining what it all means and WHY one horse stood out from the rest. Just exactly how did he interpret the readouts -- give me a step by step description.

We've had this argument about redboarding here and 46 has -- IMHO rightly -- defended the concept as a valuable way to illustrate a handicapping point. It's done all the time in handicapping books. But redboarding has NO validity if the author gives us zero context.


The stated point of this thread was very easily disputed: only took a few minutes. Energy distribution is EASY: there are only two sides of the coin with variances in between. I could flood the board with hundreds of examples. Early is dominant across the country and has been on dirt for many many years.

When I make a point I use examples where the angle worked. My goodness what would be the point to the showing the many times (but not the majority of times) that it did not? To breakdown the mathematics behind the early/late screen I would have to know the algorithms behind it. I do not.

If you want to know the ins and outs of this program, Ted can fix you up.

[Overlay]

I factor early speed into my betting decisions, but just as one component. It's not a make-or-break element for me, just like any other performance characteristic. I consider it in light of the probabilities associated with it (as with my other factors), and let the odds determine whether the horse is worth the risk in light of its overall record.

[john del riccio]

Give me a horse with early speed in aroute race & I will take it EVERY time.
Cheap horses get brave on the lead, I see it everyday.

John

[jonnielu]

Does anyone still want to throw out early speed horses at routes at Mountaineer?

In general, yes, always. If the horse is actually the likely winner, I'll throw the rest of the field out with him. Why would anyone want to bet the same horse that everyone else is betting?

jdl

[andicap]

In general, yes, always. If the horse is actually the likely winner, I'll throw the rest of the field out with him. Why would anyone want to bet the same horse that everyone else is betting?

jdl

Jeez, why do I even bother?:bang:

My statement wasn't meant to be taken literally, but in response to some comments about the value of early speed/energy in route races compared to closers.

My post had nothing to do with considering value, the rest of the field, etc. As I stated I didn't mean it as advice to go out and bet all the best F1 horses.

And just because the horse has the best F1, why would everyone else be betting him???????????????????

Actually my point is that betting early speed in routes goes against the grain of public opinion.

So I went back and filtered the top F1 horses in routes through the odds, eliminating as you said, the horses everyone else was betting.

Best F1 last race, odds 3-1 to 50-1. MNR routes. Fast track.

Result, 100 plays 16% winners. 39% return. Again, no bombs to distort the results as evidenced by the 29% place wins at 13% profits. Consistency across the board.

[Tom]

I don't think he cherry picked the race...it was race running at about that monnt at Belmont, and the winner and place horse met the energy requirements, but the place horse was deficient in total. I see this all the time in HTR - a horse with a poor AP but a good EP or F1 run second.

[ddog]

Give me a horse with early speed in aroute race & I will take it EVERY time.
Cheap horses get brave on the lead, I see it everyday.

John

yep, none of them get quicker the further they run , the cheaper the better.

[njcurveball]

it's unfortunate you are not conversant with this program to the point of being able to describe it to anyone.


Leave alone what you don't understand.


GET REAL! You have been a loud mouth one sided rant making ignorant poster for well over a decade going back to the alt.horse.racing group.

Unlike your crap of "I read the follow ups and then throw them out", I actually dont feed people a constant stream of BS with a few nuggets of truth mixed in.

When I have a horse selected, they are either early or late. NOT BOTH so I can get braggin rights.

I would be willing to wager I know more about the Sartin Methodology than you could even imagine. I programmed all of their stuff by Reverse Engineering and at one time, there were 5 or 6 people at the track using my version of energy which included a variant based on the Beyer numbers.

Funny thing is that about 5 years later Trackmaster started doing pretty much the same stuff with the variant only the program had changed by then.

I probably should come on here and reverse engineer some results, but be assured if I do I will only pick ONE pace-line and it will show the horse either Early or Late NOT both.

I would start quoting some follow ups for you, but then you would respond, "I threw them out".

I would quote some manuals to you, but once again you would respond, "I threw them out".

You are content in your dream world and that is great, you are doing more to pi$$ on the sartin methodology than anyone. You are just too ignorant to realize you are doing it. :mad:

[njcurveball]

To breakdown the mathematics behind the early/late screen I would have to know the algorithms behind it. I do not.



When I get a chance I will post all of these formulas in another thread. One thing that is for sure is using horses with a 4 point total energy defiicit as contenders is a quick way to the poor house. :ThmbDown:

[46zilzal]

When I get a chance I will post all of these formulas in another thread. One thing that is for sure is using horses with a 4 point total energy defiicit as contenders is a quick way to the poor house.
HAVING to coordinate early distribution to total energy will keep getting you mutuels any one in the crowd can find too.

It is finding IMPROVING early speed that is about to deliver versus a match up that gives it a shot.

MUSTERBATORS abound!

Those forumlae are proprietary.

[njcurveball]

Re Odds-line: can we get more than 7/2 for Gimme?



Of course all 70-1 shots have this dilemma. If you decided this horse was a contender than you need not even turn on the computer as we use to say in the old days. You use this horse in exactas, trifectas, and make a life changing score.

The crowd is wrong by a few points on some horses, by a few more on others. A 7-2 horse going off at 70-1 is reserved for a once in a lifetime score, so I hope you actually had it.

[46zilzal]

J
I didn't mean it as advice to go out and bet all the best F1 horses.

And just because the horse has the best F1, why would everyone else be betting him???????????????????



So I went back and filtered the top F1 horses in routes through the odds, eliminating as you said, the horses everyone else was betting.

Best F1 last race, odds 3-1 to 50-1. MNR routes. Fast track.


This one had BOTH the first and second fraction...and it being a maiden race, the 2nd call leaders are even more attractive bets. A two fraction advantage always gets a consideration. Top rated earlies run one two.

In routes, where the 2nd call is at least 62% of the race, it counts for more than poeple give credit to.

[njcurveball]

In routes, where the 2nd call is at least 62% of the race, it counts for more than poeple give credit to.

And what a sweet example of a FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONG race to illustrate this.

What was that you said? Oh yeah! Musterbators abound. :lol:

[46zilzal]

Early (relatively) horses win more than their fair share ALL THE Time. Only after 9 furlongs does it start to shift late.

[njcurveball]

Those forumlae are proprietary.


Total Energy is simply the sum of the 3 fractions by velocity. There is nothing proprietary about that.

The Early/Late graph was explained in many of those follow ups you tossed. Maybe you should have kept some. :lol:

[46zilzal]

I know of TWO people who have Guy Wadsworth's original code for the evaluation of the early late and it is exclusively proprietary. Giving a general example of it is one thing, but having the algorithm is yet another.

[dav4463]

I looked back at the original race that I missed at Mountaineer. I made the mistake of falling in love with a horse. I bet a horse that I felt was going to go wire to wire and ignored the other horses.

If my wire to wire horse doesn't fire (which he didn't), there was no other dominant early speed in the race and I should have (woulda, coulda, shouda!) at least have taken a look at my second and third choice.

Live and learn I guess! :)

[ranchwest]

I know of TWO people who have Guy Wadsworth's original code for the evaluation of the early late and it is exclusively proprietary. Giving a general example of it is one thing, but having the algorithm is yet another.

The fact that an algorithm is proprietary doesn't make it impossible to reverse engineer.

[njcurveball]

the Early/Late graph is just a fancy take on Phase 1. Any of the screens shown with that program would be essentially the same using Phase 1.

All of that is explained in a few manuals and at least one book.

It is sound application of Energy Distribution. But when someone cherry picks a race with 7 horses and 3 of them are first time starters, what is the point of turning the computer on?

The favorite was 3-5. IF he is a toss, AND you make the 70-1 a contender, than you simply box the three, play the other two on top, and wheel the tri with them in the top 2 spots, tossing the 3-5.

Then you go to the window cash the $285 exacta multiple times, sign for the $2,000 trifecta multiple times, and tell no one as you hide from the IRS. :lol:

The key to the race was taking a stand against the 3-5. If you did that you made money with or without a computer. If you made the 70-1 a contender, then you literally cleaned up.

One thing never said when these graphs get posted is that the 70-1 had one second in 16 races. In the last 9 races, he was in the top 4, 3 calls out of 36. At the first call, he was 5th or worse EIGHT times. The paceline chosen was one where he made the lead. If you can made a horse with 15 out of the money finishes and one second 7-2 in your line. God Bless!

[Jake]

the Early/Late graph is just a fancy take on Phase 1. Any of the screens shown with that program would be essentially the same using Phase 1.

All of that is explained in a few manuals and at least one book.

It is sound application of Energy Distribution. But when someone cherry picks a race with 7 horses and 3 of them are first time starters, what is the point of turning the computer on?

The favorite was 3-5. IF he is a toss, AND you make the 70-1 a contender, than you simply box the three, play the other two on top, and wheel the tri with them in the top 2 spots, tossing the 3-5.

Then you go to the window cash the $285 exacta multiple times, sign for the $2,000 trifecta multiple times, and tell no one as you hide from the IRS. :lol:

The key to the race was taking a stand against the 3-5. If you did that you made money with or without a computer. If you made the 70-1 a contender, then you literally cleaned up.

One thing never said when these graphs get posted is that the 70-1 had one second in 16 races. In the last 9 races, he was in the top 4, 3 calls out of 36. At the first call, he was 5th or worse EIGHT times. The paceline chosen was one where he made the lead. If you can made a horse with 15 out of the money finishes and one second 7-2 in your line. God Bless!

This kind of discussion/posting has been going on forever on PA's board. Bottom line is this is nonsense. Njcurveball has this wired, you either faded the strong favorite at 3-5 or pass. The rest this discussion on the

[barn32]

The stated point of this thread was very easily disputed: only took a few minutes. Energy distribution is EASY: there are only two sides of the coin with variances in between. I could flood the board with hundreds of examples. Early is dominant across the country and has been on dirt for many many years.

When I make a point I use examples where the angle worked. My goodness what would be the point to the showing the many times (but not the majority of times) that it did not? To breakdown the mathematics behind the early/late screen I would have to know the algorithms behind it. I do not.



I've been lurking here for quite some time. Many times when I think of something to say, all I have to do is wait and someone else will usually say it.

There are several recurring themes to this board. The biggest one is the quoted poster and his nonsensical, redboarding, gobbledee-gook postings.

My question is simply this: why is an asshat such as this allowed to continue his diatribes adnauseam without some kind of suspension?

In all honesty, I have no idea what the hell he's talking about 98% of the time. Isn't that the definition of a troll?

This is an enjoyable place . . . until asshat opens his mouth.

[RichieP]

There are several recurring themes to this board. The biggest one is the quoted poster and his nonsensical, redboarding, gobbledee-gook postings.


The gentleman is very knowledgeable and has been involved in the game in 1 form or another for decades. This coming from someone who HAS had run ins with him over the years.

What I have found out after learning to relax about stuff I can not control is a lot of things can be learned from folks we "hate" or whatever other descriptive term we use.

The other option one has is to put a poster who you don't want to "hear from" on ignore. That option can be found under miscellaneous when clicking the User CP tab on the top of the page. Just pointing this out as you are a new poster.

When I was young my Pop always made a point to tell me to listen to everyone,take it all in then decide what does/does not "stick". While I heard what he said more than 3 decades ago I didn't start actually listening until a year ago. Huge difference.

Anyway take care and welcome.

[Tom]

I'm with Richie on this one. 46 and I seldom see eye to eye on anything, but I respect his use of his program and have learned from his examples how to use it better myself. Cherry picked race....maybe some here cannot read so well....as I posted earlier, it was the next race at Belmont during the discussion.

As to two lines, one early one late, HTR has the exact same think - called the fps screen - you can see a horse' whole PP in terms of velocity. And a 4 point diff in total enery, ever see a horse win with a 1.5 point deficiency in AP? Same thing.

As to simply reverse engineering the formulae, I'm waiting.....
(Jeopardy theme playing)

[john del riccio]

Look at todays 2nd race at MTH if you have a chance. FORTUNATE STORM has a distinct pace advantage over this field based on my pace ratings. He is post 6 in a 7 horse field and he is not one of the top 3 in the M/L.

Early speed in a route is a huge advantage, especially if the horse with the early speed has shown that speed vs. competition better than todays which this horse certainly has.

Thoughts ?

John

[njcurveball]

As to simply reverse engineering the formulae, I'm waiting.....
(Jeopardy theme playing)




Two things always true here is that 46 will go off on some tangent and Tom will jump in nipping at your feet.

Here is some of the energy code from my program Tom. I would say to pull your foot out of your mouth, but you have been talking through your toes for about 20,000 posts now. :lol:

445 ' USE SELECTED ADJUSTMENT
446 K9(Q9) = K1(Q9) + RAD(Q9)
447 M3(Q9) = G1(Q9)/ADJTE
448 N3(Q9) = H1(Q9)/ADJTE
449 O3(Q9) = J1(Q9)/ADJTE
450 G8(Q9) = G2(Q9) +(RAD(Q9)*M3(Q9))
451 G9(Q9) = G8(Q9) - ((G8(Q9)/165)*L1(Q9))
452 H8(Q9) = H2(Q9) +(RAD(Q9)*N3(Q9))
453 H9(Q9) = H8(Q9) - ((H8(Q9)/165) * (L2(Q9)-L1(Q9)))
454 J8(Q9) = J2(Q9) +(RAD(Q9)*O3(Q9))
455 J9(Q9) = J8(Q9) - ((J8(Q9)/165) * (L4(Q9)-L2(Q9)))
457 K7(Q9) = K9(Q9) +(RAD(Q9)*1)
458 M9(Q9) = G9(Q9)/ADJTE
459 M7(Q9) = G1(Q9)/K7(Q9)
460 N9(Q9) = H9(Q9)/ADJTE
461 N7(Q9) = H1(Q9)/K7(Q9)
462 O9(Q9) = J9(Q9)/ADJTE
463 O7(Q9) = J1(Q9)/K7(Q9)
464 K6(Q9) = G9(Q9) + H9(Q9) + J9(Q9)
465 M2R(Q9) = M9(Q9)+N9(Q9)
466 LEX9(Q9) = 1 - M2R(Q9)
467 S4(Q9) = S1(Q9)/ADJTE
468 S5(Q9) = S2(Q9) + (RAD(Q9)*S4(Q9))
469 S3(Q9) = (S5(Q9) - ((S5(Q9)/165) * L2(Q9)))
474 S8(Q9) = (S3(Q9)/ADJTE)* 100
475 S3(Q9) = INT (100* S3(Q9)+.5 )/100
476 IF S8(Q9) > SC THEN SC = S8(Q9)
477 IF S3(Q9) > DMSC THEN DMSC = S3(Q9)
478 M9(Q9) = INT (10000*(M9(Q9) ))/100
479 N9(Q9) = INT (10000*(N9(Q9) ))/100
480 O9(Q9) = INT (10000*(O9(Q9) ))/100
482 K9(Q9) = INT (100* K9(Q9)+.5 )/100
483 M2R(Q9) = INT (10000* M2R(Q9)+.5)/100
484 LEX9(Q9) = INT (10000* LEX9(Q9)+.5 )/100
485 IF G9(Q9) > ADM1 THEN ADM1 = G9(Q9)
486 IF H9(Q9) > ADM2 THEN ADM2 = H9(Q9)
487 IF J9(Q9) > ADM3 THEN ADM3 = J9(Q9)
488 ADMTE = ADM1 + ADM2 + ADM3

[Tom]

Two things always true here is that 46 will go off on some tangent and Tom will jump in nipping at your feet.

:lol:



...and njcurveball knows everything about everything and will act like a three year old if someone doesn't agree with him. Grow up Jimmy boy....you are a total bore. And nice TRY at the formulae - throw up a bunch of unverifiable numbers and symbols and BS everyone into thinking you know what you are talking about. Your posts are zero value, unless you can reporduce the NUMBERS with them.

Still waiting, Brainiac........you have so far blown a lot of smoke, offered nothing, whle 46 still has the printout posted of a race literally in real time with a huge longshot placing. Bottom line is you look pretty stupid arguing the point. As usual.:ThmbDown:

If post 54 is nipping, you are reaching...try addressing the comments made, like an adult. :rolleyes:

[john del riccio]

Any thoughts on todays 2nd at MTH ......:jump: :jump:

John

[RichieP]

Look at todays 2nd race at MTH if you have a chance. FORTUNATE STORM has a distinct pace advantage over this field based on my pace ratings. He is post 6 in a 7 horse field and he is not one of the top 3 in the M/L.

Early speed in a route is a huge advantage, especially if the horse with the early speed has shown that speed vs. competition better than todays which this horse certainly has.

Thoughts ?
John

Hi John
I play CT pretty regularly and know that any cheap claimer there that can run 23.0 or below 1st fractions around that bullring is a fast ass horse and needs to be dealt with. That is your horse man.

I have the race down to the #4 Calabria Bella and #6 Fortunate Storm. Both also have personalities where they will FIGHT you when headed (#4 lines 1 and 6, #6 lines 6,7,10).

If the #1 scratches the 6 is my horse and if the race remains intact the 4 is my horse.

I need 3/1 or more at 1mtp to make a win bet. Best of luck.

[Tom]

The fact that an algorithm is proprietary doesn't make it impossible to reverse engineer.

So far it has. :D

[ranchwest]

So far it has. :D

I'm not going to speculate as to whether a particular individual has reverse engineered a handicapping number, but I do believe that unless the computation is quite complex then it can be reverse engineered.

[ranchwest]

The gentleman is very knowledgeable and has been involved in the game in 1 form or another for decades. This coming from someone who HAS had run ins with him over the years.

What I have found out after learning to relax about stuff I can not control is a lot of things can be learned from folks we "hate" or whatever other descriptive term we use.

The other option one has is to put a poster who you don't want to "hear from" on ignore. That option can be found under miscellaneous when clicking the User CP tab on the top of the page. Just pointing this out as you are a new poster.

When I was young my Pop always made a point to tell me to listen to everyone,take it all in then decide what does/does not "stick". While I heard what he said more than 3 decades ago I didn't start actually listening until a year ago. Huge difference.

Anyway take care and welcome.

He's also intentionally vague and a lightning rod. There is little comprehensible in his posts and he likes it that way. When anyone asks for clarification, the reply is typically more vague than the original post.

If you can get anything out of it, more power to you.

For me, I prefer a linear direction rather than acting like a dog chasing his tail.

[Ted Craven]

If you like Tom I will quit work buy RDSS and then reverse engineer everything in it.
Jim,

Are you suggesting you intend (even jokingly) to subscribe to my software, reverse engineer it and publish the algorithms on PaceAdvantage?

Ken Massa, Dave Schwartz, Jeff Platt, John del Riccio et al, are you reading?

Please don't joke about that. Besides being illegal (where the formulae are not in the public domain), it must be some kind of violation of the TOS of this site, plus it makes you look childish.

If you want to help educate, do so, but this is just strutting.

Ted

[jonnielu]

the Early/Late graph is just a fancy take on Phase 1. Any of the screens shown with that program would be essentially the same using Phase 1.

All of that is explained in a few manuals and at least one book.

It is sound application of Energy Distribution. But when someone cherry picks a race with 7 horses and 3 of them are first time starters, what is the point of turning the computer on?

The favorite was 3-5. IF he is a toss, AND you make the 70-1 a contender, than you simply box the three, play the other two on top, and wheel the tri with them in the top 2 spots, tossing the 3-5.

Then you go to the window cash the $285 exacta multiple times, sign for the $2,000 trifecta multiple times, and tell no one as you hide from the IRS. :lol:

The key to the race was taking a stand against the 3-5. If you did that you made money with or without a computer. If you made the 70-1 a contender, then you literally cleaned up.

One thing never said when these graphs get posted is that the 70-1 had one second in 16 races. In the last 9 races, he was in the top 4, 3 calls out of 36. At the first call, he was 5th or worse EIGHT times. The paceline chosen was one where he made the lead. If you can made a horse with 15 out of the money finishes and one second 7-2 in your line. God Bless!

And, that is just a good reason to look at ability as opposed to past performances. What the PP's really mean is that it is likely something different will happen today.

[46zilzal]

Speaking of early speed in routes, the winner of the 9 furlong feature on 7/2-08 at Belmont, projected, REPEATEDLY to be on or near the lead at the 2nd call. That is early.

[jonnielu]

Look at todays 2nd race at MTH if you have a chance. FORTUNATE STORM has a distinct pace advantage over this field based on my pace ratings. He is post 6 in a 7 horse field and he is not one of the top 3 in the M/L.

Early speed in a route is a huge advantage, especially if the horse with the early speed has shown that speed vs. competition better than todays which this horse certainly has.

Thoughts ?

John

Your right John, I'll wager that you would agree that the bettor should insist on an appreciable gap though, a couple of steps just usually isn't enough. I like the speedster that has speed he doesn't need. Just to make sure, that the chasers let him go just 2/5's too long.

I also expect, that the slow early horse from last will break a little crisper today, and that is a factor too.

jdl

[njcurveball]

Please don't joke about that. Besides being illegal (where the formulae are not in the public domain), it must be some kind of violation of the TOS of this site, plus it makes you look childish.


You felt the need to come here and say that?

We could go back and forth about formulae and what is and is not in the public domain.

Many of the Sartin calculations were taken from other sources, so I hope that YOU know YOUR software could also be illegal if you want to get right down to the letter of the law.

It isn't like a furlong was trademarked as being 660 feet by Sartin.

As you already know handicapping software is not a very lucrative business so no worries I am going to quit my job and reverse engineer your stuff.

Now if you start making millions, watch out. :lol:

[njcurveball]

So far it has. :D


Classic Tom here! Nothing to say only like a little insignificant dog feeling the need to nip at you.

[Tom]

You still ranting?:lol:
WaahWaaahWaaah!

And still dodging the E/L numbers, too, huh?
Can't figure them out?

[RichieP]

Hi John
I play CT pretty regularly and know that any cheap claimer there that can run 23.0 or below 1st fractions around that bullring is a fast ass horse and needs to be dealt with. That is your horse man.

I have the race down to the #4 Calabria Bella and #6 Fortunate Storm. Both also have personalities where they will FIGHT you when headed (#4 lines 1 and 6, #6 lines 6,7,10).

If the #1 scratches the 6 is my horse and if the race remains intact the 4 is my horse.

I need 3/1 or more at 1mtp to make a win bet. Best of luck.

Here is the race result. The 4 at 1 mtp was 3/1 .

[john del riccio]

Here is the race result. The 4 at 1 mtp was 3/1 .

Anyone think the 6 got mugged from the 1/4 pole to the 1/8 pole and after he comes over on the 3rd place finisher they DQ him ?? I don't know if the 6 wins it but he was coming back at the end. The MTH Stewards must have had
the wrong glasses on....

John

[andicap]

I'm with Richie on this one. 46 and I seldom see eye to eye on anything, but I respect his use of his program and have learned from his examples how to use it better myself. Cherry picked race....maybe some here cannot read so well....as I posted earlier, it was the next race at Belmont during the discussion.



Amen. 46 has extremely thick skin -- people take him on every day and he just gives it right back. A real asset to this board because he doesn't run and hide when he gets picked on.

[facorsig]

Early speed cost me a route race $69 winner! I think the horse's name was Boortz (something like that) at Mountaineer.

Too much focus on pace and computer modelling here....clearly, the horse was named after Atlanta talk show host Neal Boortz, a libertarian, and his entry was a scheme to prevent wealth distribution resulting in a few selected individuals, who worked very hard to identify this horse, to keep everyone else's money and give as little as possible to the government.

A clear play based on name alone....

Fred

[46zilzal]

Amen. 46 has extremely thick skin -- people take him on every day and he just gives it right back. A real asset to this board because he doesn't run and hide when he gets picked on.
Anatomically, the thickest skin, naturally occurring, is where you need it most: right between the shoulder blades to ward off all those stabs in the back.

[46zilzal]

Maidens being a special case for it happening MORE often than most, but here it is again, an 8/1 wired winner predicted to be alone on the lead. Finished 3-6-7

[Cratos]

Total Energy is simply the sum of the 3 fractions by velocity. There is nothing proprietary about that.

The Early/Late graph was explained in many of those follow ups you tossed. Maybe you should have kept some. :lol:

See attachment

[46zilzal]

I don't know how many times it will take for you to understand that the term ENERGY is NOT the standard PHYSICS description.

If I called in orange yogurt would that help?

[Cratos]

I don't know how many times it will take for you to understand that the term ENERGY is NOT the standard PHYSICS description.

If I called in orange yogurt would that help?

I don’t want to get into a nonsensical argument with you because apparently you don’t understand or refuse to understand that Albert Einstein and Sir Isaac Newton proved these theories to be true long before each of us was born.

Today it no longer proof, it is just application and The Royal Academy in England has done a lot of research about a racehorse locomotion and it is all based on physics.

But I am willing to allow you to continue to sprout your rhetoric to all who will listen because I believe in freedom of speech.

By the way if it is orange yogurt it will be both orange and yogurt.

[46zilzal]

I don’t want to get into a nonsensical argument with you because apparently you don’t understand or refuse to understand that Albert Einstein and Sir Isaac Newton proved these theories to be true long before each of us was born.


I do not dispute the actual physics descriptions: they are the same ones I learned in taking that course in 1965.

Those are NOT, and I can repeat this to the cows come home and it apparently is not going to sink it, the descriptions used by the Sartin Methodology. The title of what we use is energy, whether is accurately defined or not, IT IS NOT THE SAME.

reminds me of a play: Much Ado About Nothing.

[Cratos]

I do not dispute the actual physics descriptions: they are the same ones I learned in taking that course in 1965.

Those are NOT, and I can repeat this to the cows come home and it apparently is not going to sink it, the descriptions used by the Sartin Methodology. The title of what we use is energy, whether is accurately defined or not, IT IS NOT THE SAME.

reminds me of a play: Much Ado About Nothing.

Ok, and then explain to me in simple non-physics jargon that if you look at the chart provided in my previous post of the race between Birdstone and Smarty Jones why it is consistent with both the past performances and the outcome of that race.

Also you can use any methodology you like and I will applaud your adventuresome, but I will never give you credit for attempting to misrepresent the facts.

[46zilzal]

Also you can use any methodology you like and I will applaud your adventuresome, but I will never give you credit for attempting to misrepresent the facts.
I am no misrepresenting a thing. What we call energy is what we use to make decisions about horse racing whether it is that or not.

I could call it George numbers of Tasmanian fruitcake rankings and they would still be what they are: the sum total of the three fractions of a horse race.

[Cratos]

I am no misrepresenting a thing. What we call energy is what we use to make decisions about horse racing whether it is that or not.

I could call it George numbers of Tasmanian fruitcake rankings and they would still be what they are: the sum total of the three fractions of a horse race.

Please let’s cut to the chase and stop the bull. When a horse runs, two important variables are in play: work, which can be synonymous to pace and power (energy), which can be synonymous to physical effort. Both variables can be measured.

I am supportive of anyone winning at this game of horserace betting regardless of the methodology that they use and I am not issuing a slam against Sartin’s Methodology, but against the attempt by you to use science concepts and call them something else.

[46zilzal]

what does it matter?

[Tom]

It doesn't.....only to him.

Cratos, "googling" historically meant to make eyes at someone.
Do you send GOOGLE.COM constant email telling them to cease and desist? :lol:

How about those who surf the net......do you ask them where their surfboards are? :rolleyes:



Once a term gets generally accepted use in the lexicon, dual meanings are totally legit.

[Cratos]

It doesn't.....only to him.

Cratos, "googling" historically meant to make eyes at someone.
Do you send GOOGLE.COM constant email telling them to cease and desist? :lol:

How about those who surf the net......do you ask them where their surfboards are? :rolleyes:



Once a term gets generally accepted use in the lexicon, dual meanings are totally legit.


Never in science and in quantitative analysis you clearly don't know what you talking about. However you too have have the right to criticize and be criticized.

[Tom]

Obviously you are wrong - it has been done - with Energy!:lol:
You seem to be the only one who cannot comprehend it.

Merriman-Webaster seems to agree with Sartin........he simply uses velocity and deceleration to quantify his energy.

[Cratos]

Obviously you are wrong - it has been done - with Energy!:lol:
You seem to be the only one who cannot comprehend it.

Merriman-Webaster seems to agree with Sartin........he simply uses velocity and deceleration to quantify his energy.


Because of the importance of Energy in many different fields of society and science, the below are only a few of the more important energy units.

MECHANICAL ENERGY which deals with pound force
ELECTRICAL & ATOMIC ENERGY which deals with the power from volts, watts, etc.
HEAT ENERGY which deals with caloric power or force

I realize that it might be hard for you to understand, but you only speak for yourself and it is you that don’t understand the concept of energy as it is being applied by Sartin and Bob Pitlak who supports the methodology, but disagrees with Sartin with this assertion: “While I whole-heartedly endorses the concept of Energy Distribution, the Sartin’s %E simply does not measure this. The Sartin Method’s Percent Early Distribution is based on the assumption that energy is proportional to velocity. This is just not true, Kinetic Energy (or the energy of motion) is proportional to the square of the velocity.”

Additionally if you are using Merriam-Webster dictionary as a reference to understand energy I now know why you are writing such inane posts.

But what is very confusing to me is that most if not all who come to this forum to discuss horseracing and related topics come like I do for an intelligent discussion, but when someone makes a comment or a suggestion you invariably enter with spurious retorts that is disjointed from the thesis in discussion.

Handicapping is very difficult and understanding the many concepts being put forth takes thought and application to prove their validity because after all the greatest and most profound verification is the cashing of winning wagering tickets.

Hang in there you might catch up.

[Tom]

But what is very confusing to me is that most if not all who come to this forum to discuss horseracing and related topics come like I do for an intelligent discussion, but when someone makes a comment or a suggestion you invariably enter with spurious retorts that is disjointed from the thesis in discussion.

When someone repeatedly whines and cries about the termonology of a fine handicapping prgoram like you do, the work that comes to mind is anal, not intelligent. You personal crusade against the commonly used term is not an itellignet dicussion of anything. You are the only who can't move on, and your whinning about terms offers zero to the handicapping discussions. 46 has contributed examples, whydon' tyou explain to us morons why the horse should not have won because he used a flawed program? See, that would be handicapping discussions. Whinning about the termonology, well, that is just doesn't cut it. Hoity toity deserves little respect.

.....because after all the greatest and most profound verification is the cashing of winning wagering tickets.
46 cashed on the race, using a flawed program.....what great thesis did you contribute? I think I'll pass on catching up to that. :rolleyes::lol:

[Cratos]

When someone repeatedly whines and cries about the termonology of a fine handicapping prgoram like you do, the work that comes to mind is anal, not intelligent. You personal crusade against the commonly used term is not an itellignet dicussion of anything. You are the only who can't move on, and your whinning about terms offers zero to the handicapping discussions. 46 has contributed examples, whydon' tyou explain to us morons why the horse should not have won because he used a flawed program? See, that would be handicapping discussions. Whinning about the termonology, well, that is just doesn't cut it. Hoity toity deserves little respect.


46 cashed on the race, using a flawed program.....what great thesis did you contribute? I think I'll pass on catching up to that. :rolleyes::lol:

I truly enjoyed your highly informative response. If I keep reading them I might have a nano-number for an IQ

[Greyfox]

46 has contributed examples, whydon' tyou explain to us morons why the horse should not have won because he used a flawed program? See, that would be handicapping discussions. Whinning about the termonology

Independent of your political differences, I offer a thumbs up :ThmbUp: to your abililty to discern that 46Zil also makes excellent handicapping contributions to this forum. In fact, I've learned from you as well Tom.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Thumbs up to Poles apart Tom and 46 Zil on their contributions.

To be honest, there are some times when, I think both of you are out to lunch.
Having said that, I know that your opinions are worthy of giving second thought to. Thankyou,

Greyfox

[Kelso]

I don't know how many times it will take for you to understand that the term ENERGY is NOT the standard PHYSICS description.

If I called in orange yogurt would that help?If you have already done so, I missed it; so ........ would you please provide a clear explanation of what "enegry according to Sartin" is? What is the concept?

Thank you.

[46zilzal]

If you have already done so, I missed it; so ........ would you please provide a clear explanation of what "energy according to Sartin" is? What is the concept?


The SUM of the three segmental velocities of a race.

[PaceAdvantage]

I truly enjoyed your highly informative response. If I keep reading them I might have a nano-number for an IQThis sort of stuff ends now. OK?

[barn32]

This sort of stuff ends now. OK?

A little late to the party aren't you?

[PaceAdvantage]

Are you applying for the job as moderator? Thought not....

[Tom]

Kelso,
Like 46 said, the race is broken into three segments and velocity calculated.
The sum of the three is Total Energy, which we are is really total velocity.
The idea is to convert the three fractions into percentages of the total, and then match the way the horse disperses it's energy to the track.

37% 34% 29% is an early horse, the kid you might see win dirt sprints.
34% 34% 32% is more even/later horse that might win turf routs or poly.

It's not rocket scince, but is is pretty useful in identifying horses likely to perform good on a specific track or surface.

[Cratos]

This sort of stuff ends now. OK?

Please PA, don’t take sides. Do you construe insults and reply derogatoriness to be unidirectional? If so, what happened to your objectivity? This is as you know; an Internet forum about horseracing discussions and ideas with differing of opinions and that is what makes the forum both interesting and informative.

By the way I never take any retort personally.

[PaceAdvantage]

Please PA, don’t take sides.I'm not taking sides. I'm simply stating this kind of talk ends now. Very simple.

[Cratos]

I'm not taking sides. I'm simply stating this kind of talk ends now. Very simple.


This “type/kind of talk” should’ve ended within this thread long ago. However it appears that intervention doesn’t happen except when certain posters are involved. When I scanned back over the posts within this thread I didn’t see any profanity toward anyone nor did I see any blatant insults, but I did see posters stand firm on their respective points of view and that again is the essence of constructive disagreement.

However my position on the subject is well documented within this thread and I am finished with any rebuttals to the subject.

[PaceAdvantage]

However it appears that intervention doesn’t happen except when certain posters are involved.Yup, you caught me. I have it out for you. :rolleyes:

[Cratos]

Yup, you caught me. I have it out for you. :rolleyes:

Your tongue-in-cheek response has more validity than you realize and that is a shame from such a talented person

[DJofSD]

Cratos, are you an engineer by any chance?

[Cratos]

Cratos, are you an engineer by any chance?

I did my undergraduate work in Mechanical Engineering and my graduate work at the MBA level in Econometrics. I am only stating this because I was asked; and not to sound pompous

[PaceAdvantage]

Your tongue-in-cheek response has more validity than you realize and that is a shame from such a talented personExcuse me for trying to get the thread back on track and away from useless "personal zingers" and doing such with the last person (YOU) to use a "personal zinger."

Enough.

[cj's dad]

I did my undergraduate work in Mechanical Engineering and my graduate work at the MBA level in Econometrics. I am only stating this because I was asked; and not to sound pompous

For you to think that to say you are an ENGINEER and to not sound pompous is POMPOUS!

I am a master electrician in 3 jurisdictions in Maryland- so what- I still have to go to work every day.

[46zilzal]

Is the sum considered an indicator of a horse's maximum, or most likely, effort; or is it applied in some other way? Why care about it?


No just the effort but it is the changing distribution of those segmental velocities that tells you FORM cycle status, ability to stretch out, marked improvement or decline, how the horse handles a certain type pace scenario or how habitually it runs a certain distribution.

Sartin likened it to the amount of gas the horse had in the tank for that race. The best ones can adapt to whatever pace is thrown at them and usually run very consistent total energies: I recall on his way to the Derby, Monarchos was the model of consistency with three races in a row at 163.5...you rarely see that. Some of the best sprinters run in the 170's too.

[Kelso]

46 & Tom
Thanks very much for the how and the the why.

[Cratos]

For you to think that to say you are an ENGINEER and to not sound pompous is POMPOUS!

I am a master electrician in 3 jurisdictions in Maryland- so what- I still have to go to work every day.

Let’s keep the thread on topic as advised by the moderator, but if you believe by answering a question truthfully is sounding pompous that is okay with me and I congratulate you on your personal achievements within your profession.

Also I believe that there are many more “pompous” posters on the PA forum because there are probably many posters on the forum who are doctors, lawyers, professors, etc.

What I am saying is that people come from all walks of life to play horses and some of them post on Internet forums.