The answer my friend....

[Ray2000]

is blowing in the wind.

The track bias, closers vs front runners, varies from day to day mainly due to surface conditions but the wind becomes a factor, I believe, when greater than 15 MPH.

When I was a regular at the Meadows, the first thing I'd do when entering is look up at "Old Glory" to check the wind speed and strength. It did make a difference in my picks.

When wagering on the net, this wind info is hard to comeby, unless it's mentioned on local track broadcasts. And by the time the bias starts to show, it's too late.

I like this weather site for current conditions:
http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xWindSpeed.html
but local topography makes a difference.

If anyone has any comments on their home track's wind effects, I would appreciate hearing them.

If you want to know the North South orientation of Harness tracks, I have a file at
http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/
which shows a birdseye view of most tracks. the file is a MS Word doc 1.8 Meg.

May the stretch wind be at your back! (if you bet the closer:) )

[harcapper]

is blowing in the wind.
The track bias, closers vs front runners, varies from day to day mainly due to surface conditions but the wind becomes a factor, I believe, when greater than 15 MPH.

Ray,

This is one instance where I am not 100% with you. Although a headwind down the stretch will effect many horses there are others whom are not effected or shy from a strong headwind.

The condition of the track itself has more to do with the bias in my opinion and there really is no good gage to know the actual track condition because there are so many factors that can make the inner path of the track the best place to be or the worst.

If you would like, I will try to explain this in more detail so you might better understand why a track condition can change from day to day even without any rain.

Har

[Ray2000]

Har

Yes, I would like to get your comments (and others) on this effect, particularly on how it effects different size tracks and how strong of a wind it must be to make a difference. (For now we can ignore crosswinds)

Of course the "stretch wind at your back" that I was refering to is a tail wind and I certainly agree, as I mentioned, that surface conditions are the main effect on lane bias. The talent of the course superintendent plays a part as does the original decisions on surface material and crowning.

Thanks for the reply, I believe you've trained horses on different size tracks in Illinois, right?


Ray

[toetoe]

Late equipment change for Toetoe before heading trackward. Anemometer off.
Hey, look at my horse before the race. He trots. He SKAWRRRRS !

[vikingrob]

is blowing in the wind.

The track bias, closers vs front runners, varies from day to day mainly due to surface conditions but the wind becomes a factor, I believe, when greater than 15 MPH.

When I was a regular at the Meadows, the first thing I'd do when entering is look up at "Old Glory" to check the wind speed and strength. It did make a difference in my picks.

When wagering on the net, this wind info is hard to comeby, unless it's mentioned on local track broadcasts. And by the time the bias starts to show, it's too late.

I like this weather site for current conditions:
http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xWindSpeed.html
but local topography makes a difference.

If anyone has any comments on their home track's wind effects, I would appreciate hearing them.

If you want to know the North South orientation of Harness tracks, I have a file at
http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/
which shows a birdseye view of most tracks. the file is a MS Word doc 1.8 Meg.

May the stretch wind be at your back! (if you bet the closer:) )

You may want to change the picture that you use for Running Aces - the track you have labeled as Running Aces is in fact Canterbury Park, some 50 miles away.

[Ray2000]

Thanks Rob

I removed the picture but couldn't find an overhead view on Google Earth.
Tracks too new I guess:)

Also corrected Saratoga, had a training track pictured.

Anyone else finds any mistakes, please let me know

[harcapper]

Har, Yes, I would like to get your comments (and others) on this effect, particularly on how it effects different size tracks and how strong of a wind it must be to make a difference. (For now we can ignore crosswinds) Ray

Ray,

The size of the track only effects track bias to the point that on the nights when the inside path is breaking away under a horse as he travels, it still takes more effort for a closer to get there because of the turns and ground lost while parked.

Each day after the track closes for training the track crew goes into action. Some days they scrape before compacting the top surface and other days they do not. The track superintendant will also apply different compononts to try and firm up parts of the track. Some components bind the surface and others loosen it. Moisture is also applied to help the process. Once the track has been compressed, there is then a topical pad cut. Some tracks tend to carve a deeper pad then others which you can actually see on TV. At Mohawk and Hawthorne you can actually see the tire marks made in the pad by the race bikes. At The Meadowlands and Balmoral it's rare to see this.

This topical pad will slow a race down but only marginally and it does not change the bias. What changes the bias is when the base breaks away under the horses feet as they travel. On the days when this is happening you will see not only the lead horse perform poorly but any and all horses that sit in along the pylons. I have seen nights when even the 2 and 3 path are not firm underneath the pad. You will then see drivers intentionally move to the middle of the track and leave cover right at the top of the stretch on a mile track.

IMO, the best way to follow and catch the bias is to watch a race or two to see if what I just explained may be happening. Compare how the horses normally race with their trip to how they raced this night. If you see a strong bias, you can then adjust your handicapping accordingly.

I doubt that you could ever get a track conditioner to discuss this kind of stuff because they want everyone to believe that they get their surface perfect every night (not true). This is the very reason that you cannot use times or fractional times as your tell all handicapping method. Even the variant can be fooled if you have a few races that end up with some speed duels or a few stolen middle 1/2's.

Har

[vikingrob]

Thanks Rob

I removed the picture but couldn't find an overhead view on Google Earth.
Tracks too new I guess:)

Also corrected Saratoga, had a training track pictured.

Anyone else finds any mistakes, please let me know

This is from the preliminary site plan when Running Aces was in the early stages of the development process, before the racing commission awarded the track a license; the track is largely oriented in this manner.

http://www.northmetroharness.com/tracklocation.jpg

[Ray2000]

Good detailed information Har, thank you and good luck the rest of the way in Survivor.
With 2 shoes you can take some shots at real bombers.:)


Thanks again Rob, I've updated that MS Word file to include Running Aces

Because I play a lot of different tracks I'm trying to assemble various track facts, such as takeouts, post bias, pool sizes, physical layouts, mutuel post returns, current top drivers, trainers all in one db file. I'll post it here if possible.


Best

Ray